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Real Estate Prices: Depressing (Page 2)
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production_coordinator
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Jun 6, 2006, 01:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Gossamer
But at the end of the day they've got a home in their name, equity, collateral for a loan, etc. What do you have? A piece of paper saying you're allowed to live somewhere. For some people it's worth the trouble.
I agree... you will never have a large amount of wealth without owning a home [for most low to medium income people].

Living in the Washington DC area has made me understand that...
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 6, 2006, 03:26 PM
 
Hey, thanks for the USEFUL ideas.

Yes, we have equity and we'll use that.

For the Bozo mentioning what I spent on computers for HOME AND BUSINESS go find another sandbox to play in because you're obviously unable to stay ON TOPIC.

[/Gossamoron rant]

My point, I guess, is that it just seems so out of control here. I feel that we need to move out of the county, to be honest, to find someplace decent. North I suppose.

Thanks everyone.
     
rozwado1
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:15 PM
 
Cody - we can build you something nice in Grant or Malabar, if you're looking for the acreage and horse riding, etc. We just sold a large 4800 sqft 3 bed for $590k and it's on 1.5 acres in Grant. About 90 mins up 95 though...
     
The Godfather
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:18 PM
 
No need for that. You just need to move to beautiful Montana.
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:30 PM
 
Hey rozwado:

Funny thing, I was up in Grant about a month ago and a friend of ours sells real estate and he was trying to talk us into that also, LOL!

But, the 90-minute commute for my husband would be a bit much - each way.

     
zmcgill
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
For the Bozo mentioning what I spent on computers for HOME AND BUSINESS go find another sandbox to play in because you're obviously unable to stay ON TOPIC.

[/Gossamoron rant]
I hope you're not implying I did anything other than copy and paste directly from your post. If you were to buy a new Tower/Screen and Portable from Apple every year, that would be, what, $7000 a year or so, right?
For someone's HOME (emphasis yours) use, that seems a tad excessive, and I don't believe some that can afford to do that qualifies as 'middle class.' Like I said, upper middle.
     
macroy
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
...we have buyers already after one week on the market. ..
Consider yourself lucky. I've had my home on the market since early spring. And its still sitting there. The market has taken a big nose dive in many areas.
.
     
Spliffdaddy
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork.
Call Spliffdaddy. He'll build one for you.
Nah. I don't like the idea of being a general contractor. Making other people happy is an impossible task. I'd rather make a living being an independent residential builder. That way I build what I like - and if you like it you can buy it. Nearly all the new construction in Florida is built with stucco over concrete block. It's a regional twist dictated by stringent building codes that you don't find in many other areas of the country. Hell, I couldn't *give away* a concrete block home here in Kentucky.

Originally Posted by wallinbl
Eh? Florida is running out of land, especially near the water. We're not Texas or Colorado or some other big empty space. The prices in the urban/suburban communities near the water aren't going down any time soon. There might be a price adjustment, but that would affect Cody's sale price as well, since it's in the same market. The only savings to her in that situation would be on realtor commission and closing costs and possibly property taxes.
Florida has plenty of vacant land. It's just not in desireable locations. Take a drive between any 2 cities and you'll find miles of uninhabited land. I really can't figure out what drives the prices so high in the cities. I can understand the waterfront property being so expensive - no, wait, I can't. Most of the waterfront property isn't all that nice. But anyhow, if you're looking for affordable housing in the Clearwater/St Pete/Tampa area - look no further than Ybor City. Pretty much walking distance to downtown Tampa. You can still buy a house there for $100,000. The area is sort of a liberal "artsy" environment in need of rehabilitation - but it's improving FAST. You cannot lose money in that residential housing market. The nightlife alone is worth $50,000. Mark my words. I don't often give away my secrets.

Bottom line: The urban Florida housing market is saturated with 'speculators'. All the signs point to weakening prices. Look first at the condominium market to forecast what will happen to single-family residences. You don't see many condo buyers...but you see a lot of sellers. This is a sign that the market has peaked. Since condo buyers tend to be 'speculators', they have a better feel for the market than the average home buyer. I wouldn't buy a home in Florida right now. It's too much of a risk. Somebody has to be left holding the bag - when a booming market fizzles out. And it won't be the speculators. The speculators are selling - and they aren't building a lot of new condos. Your average Joe Homeowner, historically, will be the person who buys at the top of a booming market...and is left holding the bag.
     
screamingFit
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Jun 6, 2006, 04:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Gossamer
But at the end of the day they've got a home in their name, equity, collateral for a loan, etc. What do you have? A piece of paper saying you're allowed to live somewhere. For some people it's worth the trouble.
Hey, to each his or her own. If you want to throw money around on an extremely overpriced piece of dirt and some building supplies that you really don't even own fully, more power to 'ya.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by macroy
Consider yourself lucky. I've had my home on the market since early spring. And its still sitting there. The market has taken a big nose dive in many areas.
Have the prices dropped significantly, or have they just plateau'd? Just wundrin'.
     
Spliffdaddy
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:31 PM
 
"The market" dictates local housing prices. The same way it dictates where Wal-Mart builds a store. You look at an average cross-section of residents, determine their financial situation, and you decide what they're likely to buy.

Housing prices will *never* permanently outpace the buyers ability to pay them. If your local housing market has been increasing in price by 10% per year or more - it has likely outpaced the increase in wages of the residents. This is common sense stuff. In the past few years the tightening of bankruptcy laws, availability of "unconventional" mortgages, and general hype of the housing markets have (somewhat) artificially driven housing prices upward. That is, there are more potential buyers of upmarket real estate and more buyers that have convinced themselves that the financial risk is lessened. In summary; Lenders have lent more freely because they know it's harder for debtors to seek bankruptcy protection - and buyer have spent more willingly because they believe the risk is low and the reward is high.

Again, the average Joe Homeowner is at a big disadvantage when it comes to real estate speculation. First of all, because Joe Homeowner is *not* a professional real estate investor - and more importantly because throughout the home-buying process *Nobody* is looking out for his financial interest. Realtors want their sales commission, mortgage lenders want their interest income and/or origination fee, and the seller wants to sell for the highest price possible. There is nobody looking out for the home buyers best interest, except the home buyer...who is likely a novice.

Low-rate adjustable mortgages and 'no-interest' mortgages are responsible for most of the recent increase in housing prices. Home prices do not, in the long-term, exceed the price that the average buyer is *able* to pay. So, if your local housing market has exceeded the local wages of the employment market - it's called a "bubble". Bubbles do not last forever.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:33 PM
 
Soooo... Have the prices dropped significantly, or have they just plateau'd? Just wundrin'.
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:40 PM
 
That's a good question.

I think that they're now just maintaining.

     
Spliffdaddy
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:44 PM
 
That's a question which can only be answered at a local or regional level. If I were to guess...I'd say values on average have peaked, overall, nationally. And are starting to decline. One of the primary indicators you can look at is the average time a home is on the market before it sells. Nationally, it is several days longer than it was at the same time last year.

I've decided that if a home is on the market for more than 90 days - the price is too high. There is no other adequate explanation.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jun 6, 2006, 05:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy
That's a question which can only be answered at a local or regional level. If I were to guess...I'd say values on average have peaked, overall, nationally. And are starting to decline. One of the primary indicators you can look at is the average time a home is on the market before it sells. Nationally, it is several days longer than it was at the same time last year.
Actually, my original question was directed at macroy, who lives in MD. But it's interesting to see that the peak may have been reached in general for now in the US (although Cody says in her area it's probably plateau'd).

In Canada, it definitely hasn't peaked yet in general, which p!sses me off since I want to buy relatively soon.
     
macroy
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Jun 6, 2006, 07:28 PM
 
Eug -

I can only speak for my immediate area. for the 20854 zip code in general, I'm seeing the prices have definitely peaked (even dropping - but only sightly). But Potomac is a funky area. The market here is smaller as the entry price is a bit higher than average. One of the issues for me in particular is that we are competing with single family homes (older).

On the other side, as a buyer, I am also seeing a lot of price drops in other areas (especially those we are looking to move to).

Not sure if that helps.
.
     
wallinbl
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Jun 7, 2006, 08:50 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spliffdaddy
Florida has plenty of vacant land. It's just not in desireable locations. Take a drive between any 2 cities and you'll find miles of uninhabited land. I really can't figure out what drives the prices so high in the cities.
Because the vacant land isn't near any jobs. Who the hell wants to live in Spring Hill? You can be a WalMart clerk and that's about it unless you want to drive all the way back to Tampa every day for work.

But anyhow, if you're looking for affordable housing in the Clearwater/St Pete/Tampa area - look no further than Ybor City. Pretty much walking distance to downtown Tampa. You can still buy a house there for $100,000. The area is sort of a liberal "artsy" environment in need of rehabilitation - but it's improving FAST. You cannot lose money in that residential housing market. The nightlife alone is worth $50,000. Mark my words. I don't often give away my secrets.
Perhaps you could buy it as an investment, but I'm not going to live there. It really hasn't been that long since shootings and stabbings were frequent there. 40 bars in six blocks don't exactly make a family friendly environment, especially when it's surrounded by very low income housing. You guys finish the renewal and then maybe the rest of us will care.

Bottom line: The urban Florida housing market is saturated with 'speculators'. All the signs point to weakening prices. Look first at the condominium market to forecast what will happen to single-family residences. You don't see many condo buyers...but you see a lot of sellers. This is a sign that the market has peaked. Since condo buyers tend to be 'speculators', they have a better feel for the market than the average home buyer. I wouldn't buy a home in Florida right now. It's too much of a risk. Somebody has to be left holding the bag - when a booming market fizzles out. And it won't be the speculators. The speculators are selling - and they aren't building a lot of new condos. Your average Joe Homeowner, historically, will be the person who buys at the top of a booming market...and is left holding the bag.
The condos have been full of speculators for years and years. Look in the neighborhoods in areas with good schools and good communities - they're full of families living in houses - no speculators in sight. If speculators want to go nuts on beachfront condos, I could care less - they're not an indicator of any market I'm interested in. You can include the fools that bought in Trump Tower in that statement as well. I'm not sure a single one of them was actually intending to live in it.
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 7, 2006, 10:07 AM
 
I don't know...

One community we looked at up in Martin county is a new development. Interesting thing happened. Two builders built about 250 homes. One of the builders put in a contractual clause that stated that the buyer could only live in the home and it could not be sold for X amount of time because it was being built for single family residence and not speculation. The other builder had no clause and all kinds of speculators bought homes with the intention of flipping them.

Now, when you drive through the community you see some homes lived in...those are the homes that people were only allowed to buy to live in...and you see all kinds of homes that are empty with real estate signs on the lawns, "for sale by owner" signs in the windows, or "available" on sticks in the lawns. Rows and rows of them. People went in there and bought homes worth hundreds of thousands of dollars thinking that they'd be selling them as soon as they were built...but the market has tanked...and now they are stuck with them.

We are looking at one home in particular in there where the seller is so upside down on the payments (because he hasn't sold) that he's desperate to get out and willing to sell for less than what he paid if you can believe it. He just wants out - he's that desperate.

I like Martin county. Schools are great and property taxes are 60% less than Palm Beach county and there is no .15 gasoline tax on every gallon. Plus, it's not run by morons like Palm Beach county seems to be.

At any rate, I'm in a better frame of mind because I feel as though we, as a buyer, have more leverage than the sellers do right now.

     
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Jun 7, 2006, 10:07 AM
 
Originally Posted by wallinbl
Perhaps you could buy it as an investment, but I'm not going to live there. It really hasn't been that long since shootings and stabbings were frequent there. 40 bars in six blocks don't exactly make a family friendly environment, especially when it's surrounded by very low income housing. You guys finish the renewal and then maybe the rest of us will care.

That way you'll never make any money. The secret to making cash in real estate is to spot the next big thing and buy before the masses do. See potential where others see just hard work and be prepared to put in the hours others aren't. It pays off handsomely.

The first house I ever bought was in an East London slum. What I saw was that that slum was ten minutes walking distance to The City and consisted of original Georgian housing stock. The house we bought doubled in value within one year, tripled within three. That's quite the return on an investment. We sold when my girlfriend at the time and I split up and both her and I used the cash as a down payment for the next house. The last of that money is now paying, in part, for the house we just bought in Toronto.
     
Yose
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Jun 7, 2006, 10:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by Monique
What about Ottawa, I might be able to move there in the near future. How do you find a descent place to live. I do not want a house, just an apartment downtown to near do to downtown because I love the theatre and shows and you do not have interesting stuff to do in the pheripheries.
We (my family) just sold one of our rental properties in Ottawa(condo complex [5bedroom] in South Keys), and the market is much calmer than Toronto. We put in a lot of renovations ourselves, and we got our asking price. However, here was no where near as much appreciation as our properties here in Toronto.

So it wouldn't be a bad time if you want to live in Ottawa. I know I would, if my life wasen't here.
Yose.
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Yose
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Jun 7, 2006, 10:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by Mastrap
I can see that will be an amazing place.

In the mid-nineties my uncle bought and gutted a 1910-1920's era home. New plumbing, new electrical, new airsystem, new steel beams. It's an amazing opportunity to extend the life of those old, beautiful buildings. It's about to go on the market now, and I'm sad to see it go.

Post some of the post-reno shots if you can!
Yose.
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Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 8, 2006, 06:50 PM
 
Unbelievable.

We have not sold our own home that we are in and just because our real estate attorney suggested it, we applied through lendors for a home loan to see what we could afford. I thought that they would say, "Well, you qualify for a $500K to $600K loan based on the sale of your current home."

There is DEFINITELY something wrong in the banking and lending industry because they approved us for a "$1,000,000 loan with 0% down payment."



We cannot afford a $1,000,000 loan to be quite frank, at least I do not think so, even with the sale of our home, but our attorney says that we do - even without the sale of our current home.

He thinks we should keep our current home and rent it out and buy the new home. Maybe he's right, but the thought makes me nervous. I have another home that I had purchased, here on the west coast of Florida, before we got married and I own it outright and I've done well on it appreciation-wise (it's on the water and I paid about $170K a long long time ago - in another part of the state), but no one is in it and it is paid off. It's a vacation home. If I rented out this home we're in and had to depend on a crappy renter and they didn't make the rent payment I would be a nervous wreck I think. Anyone have any experience with renting out homes?

Personally, I think that the lendors for mortgage loans are giving people unreasonable loan amounts in the hope that they DO default?

What a scam. Who was it here that said that they are approving any and everybody?

Well, it's true.
     
sminch
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Jun 8, 2006, 08:51 PM
 
my wife and i bought a house around 10 months ago and we had a loan approved that there was no way we could repay - we borrowed around 20% less than they were offering and are still reasonably tight. any more than that and we'd be living in the dark cos we couldn't afford to replace a broken light bulb.

i was wondering what kind of ratio of house price and / or loan people have vs their income. our combined income is a paltry NZ$80k (around US$50k), and our house was $320, so our income to house price ratio is bang on 1:4 which has proved to be borderline at current interest rates etc. how does this stack up internationally? i've heard that this ratio has increased a lot in new zealand recently but i guess it has in much of the world...

i definitely have my moments when i wonder what the hell we're going shelling out around double what our rent used to be on mortgage payments when 85% of the payment is sucked up each month by interest. the first few years of a 25 year mortgage are just plain nasty. guess i'll be stoked when i'm 53 and own my own house. the bugger is that that looks a hell of a long way off just now.

sminch (who's now trundling off to shoot himself)
     
sminch
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Jun 8, 2006, 08:53 PM
 
ps - one of the banks over here has started to offer home loans on the basis of "if you sign this contract stating that you believe you can repay it, then we'll give it to you". aaargh.

sminch
     
andi*pandi
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Jun 8, 2006, 09:00 PM
 
our monthly mortgage is about a week and a half's pay, for both of us. We're a little too close for comfort to the line, I thought the "smart ratio" was one week's pay for mortgage. This is also the same rationale that says you should have 3 months salary in savings. Ha savings!
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 8, 2006, 09:18 PM
 
I call it O-V-E-R-E-X-T-E-N-D-E-D.

My husband and his friend, the real estate attorney, are trying to convince me to buy a particular home worth almost a million bucks.



AND keep the one we're in and rent it out.

The truth is that it will SUCK to be paying the mortgage on that house and I'll have ulcers over it and won't enjoy it. Plus worrying about a rental. It's a beautiful home, brand new and almost near completion, on water and a nature preserve and all that garbage, but how can you enjoy a home that you know you're more married to than your spouse? I HATE the idea. (We're actually in a semi-argument over it.) My husband and his crony (the lawyer) are telling me to "understand that it will appreciate substantially within one year and it's a good business investment."

Well, am I knocking my on a wall? ALL we've been talking about is how the market has peaked and is now on the downswing. And they want to buy it because it's supposedly a good investment?

Meanwhile, my understanding is that the reason this house is available is because some moron bought it on speculation and put down $100Gs with the builder and now he can't gain approval from a lendor because he's overextended. So, he's willing to lose $50K over his deposit to get out of it and get back at least $50K and now the builder is now trying to sell it to us.

Technically, it's a good deal I suppose.

But, it's not my dream home.

My dream home is an old fixer upper on some acreage that we can remodel as time and money sees fit. And is affordable.

     
Timo
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Jun 8, 2006, 09:31 PM
 
$400K doesn't buy much in NYC, even Brooklyn, where I live. Maybe a 1 bedroom condo or coop.

Cody Dawg -- what about doing an extension on your current house?
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 8, 2006, 10:05 PM
 
Not enough lot size and coding won't let us go up.

No way to do it, unfortunately.

We thought of it. Thanks, though!

     
Mastrap
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Jun 8, 2006, 10:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cody Dawg
And is affordable.

I hear you. I am all about the debt reduction myself.

I think people who overextend themselves for a house are mad. I lived through the real estate crash in London ten years ago and I know several people who walked away from their mortgage, losing serious cash in the process - never mind what it did to their credit rating.

I've only ever bought fixer uppers that nobody else wanted, transformed them and then sold them at a healthy profit when it was time to move on. For me that's the only way. And with every house you do you lear something new.
     
Briareus
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Jun 8, 2006, 10:36 PM
 
As another PB County resident, I wish you luck finding an appropriate new place. I got my place right when house prices started their climb and mortgage rates started their drop. Now about 4 years later, it would be more than a stretch to afford to buy my house at today's prices.

Then, of course, is the wacked homeowner's insurance scene... I just had to deal with getting dropped and getting a new policy. Not amusing.
     
Cody Dawg  (op)
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Jun 8, 2006, 11:25 PM
 
Who did you finally go with for home insurance? We have Allstate now and we're not very happy with them.

     
Briareus
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Jun 9, 2006, 12:39 AM
 
There are not many options out there these days. Other than Citizens, very few insurers will deal with FL. These few become fewer when the age of the home is older than 2002, which really narrows the options. Contact me off-forum (sig/profile) if you'd like more details as PM's to you are not enabled.
     
Zzzou
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Jun 9, 2006, 11:16 PM
 
You guys are lucky! I'm out here in Southern California, where the median prices for houses (we're talking 1200 sq ft. here too) are 500-550k; a 1 bedroom 1 bath CONDO is around 300-350k. Young professionals who make a decent living are priced right out of the market

The area where I'm around (The 'South Bay' area for those of you in LA :o)) houses are around 600-800k; I'm originally from Michigan, so I might have to buy some investment propery there or think seriously about leaving California. Too bad too....I really love having 70 degree weather in January
     
badtz
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Jun 10, 2006, 02:20 AM
 
wolverinewizard: you mean 70 degrees everyday, all year long?

I live in Downtown (LA) and the market here is going crazy too! If you want a condo here, be prepared to pay at least 600k for anything near 1000+ sq ft. It's pretty ridiculous. Especially since we STILL don't have a grocery store within the immediate Downtown (USC area doesn't count) .....
     
 
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