[Atheist]

Isn't the economy/stock market pretty much voodoo anyways? Aren't recessions/depressions self-fulfilling prophecies? If we keep talking about how miserable everything is (whether true or not), pretty soon our perception changes to see everything as miserable... and then our perception becomes reality?

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by Atheist 

Isn't the economy/stock market pretty much voodoo anyways? Aren't recessions/depressions self-fulfilling prophecies? If we keep talking about how miserable everything is (whether true or not), pretty soon our perception changes to see everything as miserable... and then our perception becomes reality?

Yeah, I keep feeling like everything is going to be getting worse because everyone is either waiting or expecting for it to get worse.

I'm too young to remember the last recession, but are companies always this proactive about cutting jobs?

[dcmacdaddy]

Originally Posted by Proudest Monkey 

Anyone think it's going to get worse before it gets better? I do. Much worse.

I do. I am very pessimistic about how the economy is going to recover. My pessimism is due mostly to the fact that our national leaders think that a recession-proof economy is not only possible but ideal. As a result, we have had a decade or more of federal-level economic policies designed to keep growth happening and designed to keep any recession from occurring. And now that a major economic contraction is underway our leaders are still trying to toy with the economy (bailouts for the financial and automobile industries) to prevent natural market forces from playing out. These are necessary market forces which would correct the systemic imbalances by removing from the system those businesses that can no longer succeed within the limits of normal business practices (i.e.: heavily, heavily over-leveraged financial firms or vastly inefficient automobile manufacturers).

Economic contractions (i.e.: recessions) are a normal part of the capitalist-based economic system. Economies expand due to advances in technology or changes in employment practices but economies also contract due to changing labor needs or competition from overseas competitors. When some systemic change happens (say, the advent of computers as business tools or the general practice of miniaturization in every product imaginable) businesses have to respond those changes. And during the response period some businesses will fail and some will (continue to) succeed. But that state of flux can cause an overall, and completely natural, economic contraction.

What US leaders did during/after the dot-com bubble/bust is try to game the system such that economic growth would continue even when it probably shouldn't have. With the size of the dot-com bubble, there should have been a much bigger recession than we had when the bubble went bust but our economic leaders (particularly those at the Fed) wanted to avoid this and artificially kept the financial markets in liquidity when they should have let them contract. This surplus liquidity permitted irrational exuberance to grow and in part led to excessive growth in the housing market similar to that which was experienced in the dot-com/tech market.

In general, over the past three or four decades of truly global commerce, I think many major American businesses failed to adapt to overseas competitive forces by changing their practices or seeking out efficiencies and simply decided to "adapt" to overseas competition by moving their business overseas. Just look at the American automobile industry. For three decades now we have had imports taking a bigger and bigger chunk out of the automobile market in the US. WHY? Because American automobile manufacturers didn't adapt to changes in the market (low-cost, high-quality imports) and let their business model stagnate due to belief that nationalistic sentiments (Americans buying cars from American companies simply because they were "made in America") or exceptional sales in certain product lines (minivans, trucks, SUVs). Those are not business decisions designed to keep a company at the leading edge in their respective market.

- - - - -

So, if you combine a national economic policy that rejects the notion of economic contractions as being a normal part of the capitalist business cycle with economic policies designed to maintain growth at all costs you are going to get what we have now, businesses that sought out profits and financial growth through "loopholes" in the capitalist economic system instead of through the traditional method of making a better mouse-trap and making it more efficiently than a competitor.

I for one welcome a severe economic contraction. It is going to bring a lot of hurt to a lot of people at most economic levels of our society. I want people to feel that hurt and suffer so they will learn the lesson about thinking never-ending growth is a) possible and b) a good thing and that people learn how to live within their means, both individually and collectively (as part of our society as a whole). Also, I hope a severe economic contraction forces political leaders to realize that messing with natural market forces is not sound economic policy.

I think it will be 2010 before we officially come out of the recession but I think the long-term recovery to people's sense of economic well-being will take much longer. I think it will be the middle of the next decade before people again feel optimistic about their economic situation, in particular, their personal financial future. So, I say, bring on the recession and the deflation. The sooner we start letting market forces play out--let GM and Chrysler and AIG fail--the sooner the markets will find a new equilibrium.

[dcmacdaddy]

As for the effect on me on a personal level. I quit my job last February to take some time off and help my Mom through some health problems and finish up a graduate degree I had let linger unfinished. I am looking to re-enter the job market in January and have had limited success looking for work in NYC.* As a result, I have started to expand my job search to Boston and other parts of New England--not living someplace other than New York/New England is not an option for me--in hope of finding a job sooner rather than later. But, I am not optimistic I will find a job right away and dread the thought of having to continue living with my Mom in Syracuse. If I don't find something by late January I am going to start looking to do contract work while I do retail or food service on the side.


*I actually applied for my old job--the job I left--and did NOT get it. How screwy is that? I find it hard to believe that in the past 10 months someone else has come along who is more qualified at doing the job I had, in the line of work I have done for the past 12 years. Although, it's possible someone with years more experience than me lost their job elsewhere and decided to down-size to the lower pay (but greater security) of a federal IT job.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by osiris 

I suspect that I've seen that picture before in another thread.

Are we into re-runs already?

Same crappy iPhone camera, same product on same pantry shelves. But new expiration dates!

[Dakar V]

More like new photoshop skills.

[Railroader]

My clone brush skilz sucketh.

I use about $27.85 worth of Photoshop. Levels and Smart Sharpen filter.

[Dakar V]

What, no lens flare?

[Railroader]

Lens flare is so yesterday. It's all ball bearings these day.

[Dakar V]

Lens flare's are like good framing. It never goes out of style.

[osiris]

Originally Posted by Railroader 

Same crappy iPhone camera, same product on same pantry shelves. But new expiration dates!

Alright then. But I'll be watching those expiration dates, mister.

[Doc HM]

Honestly, I think 2009 will be worse than the worst that anyone is currently thinking. I do think that the UK (and US) governments are being wildly optimistic about their chances of influencing anything that's going to happen. Just thinking back over the last 10 years of record boom, huge corporate profits, wallet stuffing and general financial madness I can't help but thing the biggest hangover in history is on the way.

I can see nearly all hedge funds collapsing by Easter, I'm sure Madoff isn't the only fraudster hiding out there, and I think the banks/investors know this too.

Apparently 2009 sees an enormous amount of money borrowed by companies in the boom times to expand coming due for repayment which is going to mean the largest multinational companies sucking up all the avialable credit in order to pay these bonds, leaving smaller businesses high and dry. Stand by for another round of government bail outs.

When the crunch first hit my business came to a total stop. And I mean total, not a single call for nearly three weeks. Since then people have got bored with their Macs not working but I'm easily down 40%. My wife makes hand made curtains. She's mad busy, but it's hard work for little pay!

[design219]

Is there anyone who is optimistic? This thread is depressing.

[Atheist]

Originally Posted by design219 

Is there anyone who is optimistic? This thread is depressing.

It's in vogue to be pessimistic.... get used to it.

[MacTheRiverRat]

I'm going to agree that 2009 is not looking very good right now. We have cut down our spending but we still eat once a week. We may have to even cut that out too. I did reward my self with a new Macbook for Birthday and Christmas rolled into one. I tell people to don't buy us junk thats just going to sit around and collect dust. I guess we will see how the big 3 bailout will play out, the new administration plays out. I guess hope is all we can do.

[turtle777]

Pfff. Now that the Fed has lowered the rate to all time lows, we are on the path that Japan has gone 15 years ago. It's gonna be a looooooooooooooong time to recovery.

See also: WSJ: Barack Obama-san

-t

[Atheist]

Originally Posted by MacTheRiverRat 

We have cut down our spending but we still eat once a week. We may have to even cut that out too.

I'd recommend you eat at least once a week.

[MacTheRiverRat]

Oops that should have been eat out once a week.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by MacTheRiverRat 

Oops that should have been eat out once a week.

Hey, don't let the critics get to you, I think you are on to something with your strategy

-t

[MacTheRiverRat]

Its like all the bad news you hear. I like to keep up with news about the company that I work for by reading google news and type in the companys name. I have noticed that say a online paper like Barrons will post a negative article about the company I work for and within say 12 hours there will be 100 posts from other online papers saying the same thing. Then months later the truth comes out that the original posts was way off. Just like yesterday a NPD analyst said that Mac sales would be down and the eaters of news jumped right on it. Next thing you'll read that Apple is going out of Business AGAIN!

[Cold Warrior]

I'm not pessimistic either but thankfully I'm in a stable job for an employer with very deep pockets who doesn't lay off anyone. Personnel reductions are handled through normal attrition.

[Railroader]

Originally Posted by design219 

Is there anyone who is optimistic? This thread is depressing.

I am optimistic that people will be pessimistic until they are optimistic.

[Chuckit]

Originally Posted by design219 

Is there anyone who is optimistic? This thread is depressing.

Like I said, I'm feeling fine about the near future. The economy isn't great, but as long as you're willing to work and think about what you're doing rather than just blindly do what somebody employed you to do 20 years ago, you'll be all right. And really, in many important ways, our economy is still pretty strong.

[rippleish20]

We just had a round of layoffs at the University where I work. I think things are going to get worse in the next year.

[Northeastern292]

Originally Posted by Proudest Monkey 

This is a very interesting perspective that I can say I have never thought of. I had to read it and think about it before coming up with a response but I basically agree.

It brings into 2 questions; What will "survive" and what will fall aside as we move through this financial crisis and will this start the consumer cycle again?.

As far as stores are considered, do we really need so many Target's and Wal-Marts? All electronic stores may become obsolete due to these stores. Essentially, a consumer goods store can stock anything and push other stores out. In 10 years will be forced to do all our shopping at 1 store.

If the consumer cycle starts over then we'll see more competition eventually and a similar lifestyle we were used to. I think it eventually get's back to this type of reality. Just not sure when. Glad I'm 27 and not 67.

I agree 100% with you. I actually like doing shopping at different locations.

But I'm also being impacted by the economic downturn. I may be doing another year of community college if the economy gets any worse, just because of student aid and all being slashed. Public schools in New York are suffering because of state aid cuts, and it's carrying over to public colleges, where SUNY is facing a funding crisis.

[turtle777]

Would be funny if it wasn't so dangerously close to becoming reality again:





-t

[powerbook867]

I got laid off the 12th of November very unexpectedly from my IT consulting position (along w/ about 8 other engineers).

I was extremely lucky and started a new position on the 8th of December as a storage admin. I think the only reason I found something so quick is because my skillset is fairly unique and there are not a lot of folks that do SAN/Enterprise storage work...

I talk to sales guys a lot and most are very afraid yet thankful that they still have jobs. I get the impression from them that no field is "safe" and that this downturn is going to last a long time (which I agree with).

I think I read someplace recently that there are 10 million people searching through 3 million jobs.

Those are not good odds....

[MacTheRiverRat]

Originally Posted by powerbook867 

I got laid off the 12th of November very unexpectedly from my IT consulting position (along w/ about 8 other engineers).

I was extremely lucky and started a new position on the 8th of December as a storage admin. I think the only reason I found something so quick is because my skillset is fairly unique and there are not a lot of folks that do SAN/Enterprise storage work...

I talk to sales guys a lot and most are very afraid yet thankful that they still have jobs. I get the impression from them that no field is "safe" and that this downturn is going to last a long time (which I agree with).

I think I read someplace recently that there are 10 million people searching through 3 million jobs.

Those are not good odds....

I hope were both wrong but its not looking very good. I've always been a positive person and not a pessimist. But every time you turn on cnbc, cnn, the big 3 networks its always bad news on top of bad news. Exporting grain down the Mississippi River is what I'm involved in. Its seems to be holding up due to grain exports, northbound salt and fertilizer shipments. Any barge movements of anything having to do with construction have all but dried up. Coal, ethanol, fuel oil rock/sand shipments seems about normal.
I guess its up to the new administration to do something.
This slowdown seems to be cutting across all lines. One bright spot this morning Fedex reported better earnings but warned 2009 might be difficult. http://tinyurl.com/3nbhtc

[Chuckit]

Originally Posted by powerbook867 

I got laid off the 12th of November very unexpectedly from my IT consulting position (along w/ about 8 other engineers).

I was extremely lucky and started a new position on the 8th of December as a storage admin. I think the only reason I found something so quick is because my skillset is fairly unique and there are not a lot of folks that do SAN/Enterprise storage work...

I talk to sales guys a lot and most are very afraid yet thankful that they still have jobs. I get the impression from them that no field is "safe" and that this downturn is going to last a long time (which I agree with).

I think I read someplace recently that there are 10 million people searching through 3 million jobs.

Those are not good odds....

You need to stop listening to the Negative Nancies of the world. For instance, not all of those people "looking for jobs" are looking for the same jobs, and not all of them are even actually looking for jobs.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by MacTheRiverRat 

But every time you turn on cnbc, cnn, the big 3 networks its always bad news on top of bad news.

Originally Posted by Chuckit 

You need to stop listening to the Negative Nancies of the world.

Uhm, yeah, LOL.

95% of those business guys on CNBC, CNN & Co are hopeless Pollyannas. They expect that we'll see a recovery already in 2009.

-t

[osiris]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Uhm, yeah, LOL.

95% of those business guys on CNBC, CNN & Co are hopeless Pollyannas. They expect that we'll see a recovery already in 2009.

-t

Let us not forget Doubting Thomas, Doubtful Debbie, Fickled Phil, Pouty Peter, and Melancholy Melissa.

[Art Vandelay]

Don't forget Debbie Downer.

[King Bob On The Cob]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Uhm, yeah, LOL.

95% of those business guys on CNBC, CNN & Co are hopeless Pollyannas. They expect that we'll see a recovery already in 2009.

-t

I would expect the same as well. Consumer confidence will jump when Obama takes office.. Another interesting tidbit will be when troops start returning home from Iraq (I know Obama says he's going to redeploy them, but I'd like to see that actually pan out with the economy in the shitbox it is right now). This will benefit the economy more than anyone could imagine. Thirty-thousand people coming home flush with several years worth of cash saved up to buy a home and start a new life will prop up any economy. Are we heading back to the heady days of 2005's housing boom? Hell no, but at least that will restart the construction business in some way. Another positive that should have an impact is the availability of cheap energy again. Our country needs that to restart the stalled economy.

But I would expect some bad times, particularly for immigrants in the near future. Lots of jobless people in this country and "'dem imm-E-grents are teckin' jerbs from hard workin' Americans!" I expect overt racism to return in force in the areas where illegals are suspected to be, even against legitimate US citizens.

*This is all conjecture and should not be taken for investment purposes*

[osiris]

Originally Posted by Art Vandelay 

Don't forget Debbie Downer.

Yes, my bad.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by King Bob On The Cob 

Another interesting tidbit will be when troops start returning home from Iraq... This will benefit the economy more than anyone could imagine. Thirty-thousand people coming home flush with several years worth of cash saved up to buy a home and start a new life will prop up any economy.

That's the most desperate clinging to straws I have seen in a while.

Flush with cash ? In the US military ? Puuulleeeeze.

-t

[ghporter]

Originally Posted by King Bob On The Cob 

Another interesting tidbit will be when troops start returning home from Iraq (I know Obama says he's going to redeploy them, but I'd like to see that actually pan out with the economy in the shitbox it is right now). This will benefit the economy more than anyone could imagine. Thirty-thousand people coming home flush with several years worth of cash saved up to buy a home and start a new life will prop up any economy.

I don't know what GIs you're familiar with, but most Soldiers have families and bills to pay. It's not like WWII when people got paid in scrip and couldn't even spend all of the pittance they got. EVERYBODY in the military has direct deposit, and while a number of GIs are single and/or well enough off that they aren't hurting, there probably won't be any coming back with "several years worth of cash saved up." Not at all likely.

In fact, I see a major problem for the Obama administration on the horizon: how to employ hundreds of thousands of former GIs who aren't needed in uniform anymore. You may remember from your history classes that after WWI there was a serious unemployment problem with similarly large numbers of young men demobilized and not nearly enough jobs for them... This could make the current economic situation look all rosy and sweet.

[turtle777]

And don't forget one thing: we'll have many (if not most) soldiers coming back with PTSD, and the Obama administration is less likely to take this serious enough to give those soldiers all the support they need.
So chances are, they come back, and fall into a big hole, not able to get out all by themselves.

-t

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

we'll have many (if not most) soldiers coming back with PTSD, and the Obama administration is less likely to take this serious enough to give those soldiers all the support they need.

Why are they less likely to take this seriously?

[scottiB]

Originally Posted by Cold Warrior 

I'm not pessimistic either but thankfully I'm in a stable job for an employer with very deep pockets who doesn't lay off anyone. Personnel reductions are handled through normal attrition.

Radioactive tea? The life a cold warrior is a dangerous one, indeed.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Why are they less likely to take this seriously?

Because, in general, a Democratic administration supports troops less than a Republican.
That's unfortunately just the way it is.

See, Democrats are not good as making a difference between the administration that sent those soldiers to war (Bush & Co), and the soldiers themselves (GI Joe). So it just happens that the soldiers themselves are treated as it was THEIR fault that we went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

-t

[Dakar V]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Because, in general, a Democratic administration supports troops less than a Republican.
That's unfortunately just the way it is.

See, Democrats are not good as making a difference between the administration that sent those soldiers to war (Bush & Co), and the soldiers themselves (GI Joe). So it just happens that the soldiers themselves are treated as it was THEIR fault that we went to war in Iraq and Afghanistan.

-t

Hahaha, I didn't think you'd be this weak.

Summation: Partisan BS.

[scottiB]

Democratic administrations sent troops to battle in WWI, WWII, Korea, and Viet Nam.

Hoover attacked veterans militarily in Washington during the Great Depression.

The Nixon administration wasn't exactly supportive of returning Viet Nam troops, either.

My point? It's tough to make that generalization.

[ghporter]

True, scottiB. However, considering how much fuss has been made about veterans by both sides in the last election, properly dealing with veterans will be something that I think the new administration will HAVE TO DO RIGHT. Otherwise they'll look pretty darn heartless, and pretty darn cynical. Not good for a "hope" administration, eh?

But that's all political. I think the economy will stop drooping before any troops come home, and while it may stay "unenthusiastic" for a while, I doubt it'll stay really bad for very long, especially if any of these rumored fixes actually transpires.

[design219]

Well I'm glad to hear a few people not so gloom and doomish.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Dakar V 

Summation: Partisan BS.

Yeah, whatever. Do you have military in the family ?

Well, I do. Lots. Including disabled veterans. Over the years, they learned what administrations treat military personnel better, and which don't.

By sheer coincidence, this mostly ended up along party lines. Like I said, it's just coincidence.

-t

[powerbook867]

Back to topic. The 10 other professionals I know that have been laid off in the past 2 months or so are all still trying to find work. Highly educated, experienced and willing to take pay cuts if necessary..

Implying that all this downturn is due to the "gloom and doom" folks is absurd. Lots of very good, competent employees of every type of business imaginable are losing their jobs. Will things get better? Of course... The question is how deep will the downturn go in terms of the gutting and how long will it last.

[MacTheRiverRat]

Hopefully sometime in the spring and after the new administration takes office things will picks up hopefully. I'm surprised things lasted as long as they did with high fuel, food costs. i didn't think things would turn to crap like they did as fast as they did. To me what ever it takes to get the economy going again.

[Snow-i]

I was laid off from a contracting position at Apple itself in early september. My other job in october... I couldn't afford to stay in school, pay rent, eat, and otherwise live without dropping all of my classes and taking a far less financially rewarding position for more hours which conflicted with school. basically....i threw my tuition down the shitter because i lost these jobs...Now, i've been let go of even the less paying job....this week...."we can't afford to keep you." Contract work i've done in the meantime as a server for a catering company has thus far gone unpaid....i'm exploring legal options to recover the nearly $1000 in invoices they still owe me.

Parents can't help because my mom was laid off from discovery channel, and my dad's businesses are in the housing market. My savings for tuition are sustaining me now...but...i won't be back in school without a loan, and those savings will be gone very shortly if i don't find some work.

So...if anyone needs somebody with significant marketing experience (3 years at apple, more in other various jobs)...I'm here.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by MacTheRiverRat 

Hopefully sometime in the spring and after the new administration takes office things will picks up hopefully. I'm surprised things lasted as long as they did with high fuel, food costs. i didn't think things would turn to crap like they did as fast as they did. To me what ever it takes to get the economy going again.

Don't hold your breath.

This is my prediction for spring: GM and Chrysler file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

-t

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Snow-i 

I was laid off from a contracting position at Apple itself in early september. My other job in october...

Sorry to hear, that really sucks. Looks like you had multiple bases covered, and all of them failed. I hope you'll get back on your feet soon.

-t