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Emotionally Fragile Luke · Dec 19, 2002, 01:54 PM

"For Apple, synchronisation software could become an important hook that might persuade consumers or businesses to choose Macs over PCs. Apple has seen its share of the overall operating system market slide in recent years as Linux gains popularity. IDC estimates that the Mac OS' market share dropped to 3.1 percent in 2001 from 4.6 percent two years earlier. Windows, in contrast, has more than 90 percent market share.

"Certainly by...2005, possibly by the end of 2003, Linux will pass Mac OS as the No. 2 operating environment," said IDC analyst Dan Kusnetzky."

I have no clue as to how Dan came to that.

http://news.zdnet.co.uk/story/0,,t272-s2127814,00.html

Graymalkin · Dec 19, 2002, 02:03 PM

It must have been the crack COcain. What in the H-E double hockey sticks is anyone thinking that by 2005 Linux will surpass anything? I'm sorry Linux blowhards but you're lucky to have a hundred thousand desktop users at any given time. Dual boot Linux/Windows experiment systems do not, I'm afraid, count. I'm thinking its ZDNet's netural bias against Macs and their prediliction towards hyping Linux to the highest of high heavens whenever possible. ZDNet will tell you that Linux already owns the desktop majority share and Microsoft is just fooling with you.

Uisce · Dec 19, 2002, 02:05 PM

Its possible, if KDE and Gnome ever become decent GUIs and the Linux dists mature and be more compatible. Until then, don't look for Linux to really take off with everyday users.

If people are afraid to go from Windows to an established and easy to use system like Apple's, they will not be much more likely to convert to Linux. The only big selling point is that they could use their existsing hardware to switch.

mo

KidRed · Dec 19, 2002, 02:08 PM

It's very possible. IBM is pushing Linux and Sony and Mashashita or something agreed yesterday to make it's own OS based off linux. And IBM, Dell, HP, and many others are intrested in it. So, no one would be buying windows and this would definately gain more market sharre then X.

I don't mind, we're all *nixs or sorts and it's nice to see everyone giving M$ the bird and laughing about it.

Adam Betts · Dec 19, 2002, 02:08 PM

He just want to tick off Apple.

Guy Incognito · Dec 19, 2002, 02:24 PM

As long as Apple has a decent enough marketshare for devs to develop for Mac...and as long as Macs remain...I don't care how little a marketshare Apple has, I'm happy.

macmike42 · Dec 19, 2002, 02:32 PM

If you think about, it could be correct, in it's own twisted, contorted kind of way. Apple has no version of the Mac OS strictly designed for embedded purposes. Mac OS X server is great if you need an easy-to-admin server, and will run most UNIX server apps, but Linux is simply far more flexible (err, scalable, I hate that word) in that respect. Nor does the Mac OS (X) run on anything other than PowerPC chips. Darwin adoption will surely never reach the point that Linux has reached. So if you count every Linux PDA, set-top box (yep, your Tivo runs Linux), server (hell, Slashdot counts as at least 12!), and geek desktop machine in the world, and include all the non-US governments switching to Linux to cut costs and escape the vicious upgrade circle, Linux may beat OS X by 2005. Speaking strictly as a dyed-in-the-wool-since-1985 Mac users, I own three times the number of Linux boxes as I do OS X boxes: 1 OS X "work"station (G3), 1 file/web/linux play server (rev. a iMac), 1 router (Power Mac 6500, whatta waste of space for router!), and 1 Tivo.

Thing is, Linux has never, will never, could never, and does even have the desire to appeal to Apple's core markets. When talking "market" share, one always has to ask "what market?". I could easily put together a report proving that Windows has 690% market share. Mathematically impossible, maybe, but completely within the bounds of creative journalism.

As HJS said, "Facts? You can use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true!"

Krypton · Dec 19, 2002, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Guy Incognito:
As long as Apple has a decent enough marketshare for devs to develop for Mac...and as long as Macs remain...I don't care how little a marketshare Apple has, I'm happy.

I have to agree with this - having a small market share means that Apple has to inovate more and more to catch people's attention.

Millennium · Dec 19, 2002, 03:28 PM

Doubtful, but then, leave it to MSZDNet to publish something like that. Note that the guy who wrote this article is from the company who supposedly did this estimate. Translation: he pulled it out of his rear.

All told, OSX is probably taking more people from other Unices -including Linux- than it is from Windows. That alone should keep this from happenning.

But all the same, I think Apple should start a "Welcome Home" ad campaign to parallel the "Switch" campaign, this time focusing on people who switched away from Macs years ago (many of whom actually went to Linux rather than Windows) and are now coming back into the fold, so to speak. You know, prodigal users returning and all that.

GoGoReggieXPowars · Dec 19, 2002, 03:56 PM

Originally posted by Millennium:
But all the same, I think Apple should start a "Welcome Home" ad campaign to parallel the "Switch" campaign, this time focusing on people who switched away from Macs years ago (many of whom actually went to Linux rather than Windows) and are now coming back into the fold, so to speak. You know, prodigal users returning and all that.

YES! Then run the banner ads on Slashdot with links to key-mapping software to swap the Control and CapsLock keys, and 3 button mice!

gorgonzola · Dec 19, 2002, 04:01 PM

I dunno, it's possible. Linux is used in all sorts of strange places that no one ever uses Mac OS. Then again, I doubt that the desktop marketshares are even comparable. I mean, in the server sector, *n?x has a gigantic marketshare, so it all depends on what sample set you're looking it.

I'd like to see BSD gain some ground, frankly, because I like it better, but there are reasons for why BSD isn't as well known.

*shrug*

Better than Windows, but Linux can't touch Windows, imo. It's too established. And Linux still sucks for desktops, IMHO.

KidRed · Dec 19, 2002, 04:57 PM

Originally posted by gorgonzola:
I dunno, it's possible. Linux is used in all sorts of strange places that no one ever uses Mac OS. Then again, I doubt that the desktop marketshares are even comparable. I mean, in the server sector, *n?x has a gigantic marketshare, so it all depends on what sample set you're looking it.

I'd like to see BSD gain some ground, frankly, because I like it better, but there are reasons for why BSD isn't as well known.

*shrug*

Better than Windows, but Linux can't touch Windows, imo. It's too established. And Linux still sucks for desktops, IMHO.

Guess you didn't read my post. Sony is developing their own OS based on linux. A few major players are already lined up for it.

Mike S. · Dec 19, 2002, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by macmike42:
if you count every Linux PDA, set-top box (yep, your Tivo runs Linux), server (hell, Slashdot counts as at least 12!), and geek desktop machine in the world, and include all the non-US governments switching to Linux to cut costs and escape the vicious upgrade circle, Linux may beat OS X by 2005.

If you want to count every device with an OS then Windows probably doesn't even have 5% of the market.

There was a long article about microprocessors in a techy mag a long while ago (~a year maybe) that said that while Intel has a huge, commanding lead in desktops they don't even make up a full 1% of all microprocessor sales.

I highly doubt the study was counting Tivos or Zire PDAs. Microsoft only has greater than 90% on the desktop. I think they have ~50% in servers.

I don't know what they base these figures on. It's easy to track Windows or OS X since they're a single vendor and the company tracks sales but with Linux anyone can download and burn and since it's free you can't make the reasonable assumption that people are actually going to use it.

I for one have downloaded Linux several times over the years and never really used it do to failed installs, incompatible hardware or just not being able to make things work when it did install.

I just don't see Linux as a viable alternative to Windows on the desktop. The GUIs look nicer but there's more to useability than graphical config settings and icons.

Avon · Dec 19, 2002, 05:14 PM

Originally posted by KidRed:

I don't mind, we're all *nixs or sorts and it's nice to see everyone giving M$ the bird and laughing about it.

My exact thoughts. The more unix OS users the better. The more software that will be ported over to mac os x, or at the very least can run on Xfree86.

A world with fewer MS users is a better one.

KidRed · Dec 19, 2002, 06:06 PM

How ironic would it be in 5-10 years that an open source OS could bring down a company who's paid OS had made it the most wealthiest and powerful businesses in the world?

MacGorilla · Dec 19, 2002, 06:06 PM

Originally posted by gorgonzola:
I dunno, it's possible. Linux is used in all sorts of strange places that no one ever uses Mac OS. Then again, I doubt that the desktop marketshares are even comparable. I mean, in the server sector, *n?x has a gigantic marketshare, so it all depends on what sample set you're looking it.

I'd like to see BSD gain some ground, frankly, because I like it better, but there are reasons for why BSD isn't as well known.

*shrug*

Better than Windows, but Linux can't touch Windows, imo. It's too established. And Linux still sucks for desktops, IMHO.

I hear ya brother. My Mac is in the shop this week for repairs and I am using Linux as my main machine and it is difficult; even the simplest tasks, like cutting and pasting can be a task.

torifile · Dec 19, 2002, 06:17 PM

IMHO, it doesn't matter who's number 2, what matters is where the switchers are coming from. If they're from windows, great. If they're mac users (doubtful), then there's a problem. So, if the switchers do come from windows, all that does is introduce MORE diversity into the mainstream, making open-standards that much more necessary. Which would be absolutely great for us mac users.

As long as there is a monopoly like MS has right now, proprietary **** is ok, but once there's a compelling reason for developers to use open-standards, we're going to be in great shape. Apple's already made the necessary steps to making this work for us. Now we just need that compelling reason. I say more power to the Linux community. Diversity only makes us stronger.

mitchell_pgh · Dec 19, 2002, 06:19 PM

I sure hope this is true. If they make apps for Linux, it wouldn't be all that hard to port them (the same goes the other way as well). A Windows to OS X port is much more difficult.

Mac users aren't going to Linux, it's Windows users going to Linux... OEMs are also looking at players like Lindows as options. They have a GUI that isn't bad, and it works with most of the regular M$ applications.

Our market is fine for the time being...

booboo · Dec 19, 2002, 06:20 PM

The thing is Linux will only take market-share from Windows - no Mac user is going to abandon OS X for Linux, and Linux users, perhaps more that Windows users, are likely to appreciate the benefits of Mac OS X, so why worry?

You can imagine how much it must piss off Sony to design perhaps the coolest non-Mac hardware, and then have to run Windows on it... now that's one company that would love to licence OS-X for Intel... (not that I think Apple should)

PS: Isn't it nice to be able to say XP multi-tasking sucks!

Mediaman_12 · Dec 19, 2002, 06:36 PM

People arn't going to switch from Apple to Linux. Apples core userbase is of people who don't want/need/like to know how there computer works. If these people will go anyware it would be to Windows.
Unless there is a real explosion in Linux Distros that 'have a clue' and don't require you to know abstract stuff about your computer or require you to run command line commands to get it installed.

Linux has to 'grow up' as an OS and get away from it's nerdy roots before it becomes widespread as a desktop OS run by most 'normal' prople.

ringo · Dec 19, 2002, 09:49 PM

Linux is taking off in countries like India because it works, it runs on a variety of hardware, and it's free. I'm surprised it hasn't already passed Mac OS.

RMXO · 11:24 PM

Linux isnt for everyone. not everyone are computer literate. installing OS X & windows are even easier than installing linux. unless you know what you are doing, it can be very frustrating for the avg user. even though i love my Gentoo Linux, i dont think Linux will pass Mac anytime soon...

aenemated · Dec 20, 2002, 12:30 AM

working in retail has seriously destroyed my faith in the majority of people that own computers.

knowing what i know now -- linux will NEVER be a viable desktop solution. we have people that need mac apps installed for them. MOST people, at that.

installing apps on linux is NOT easy. finding apps for linux is not easy. once you get it up and running and understand how it works, linux rocks. and *I* love it.

but 95% of the world will not. ever.

tooki · Dec 20, 2002, 03:00 AM

Originally posted by mitchell_pgh:
[B

Mac users aren't going to Linux [/B]

On the desktop, that's true. On servers... i dunno! I've seen a lot of ASIP servers replaced with Linux servers running netatalk. (Often, it is the same hardware as before, just with Linux for better performance, or for other reasons.)

tooki

The Dude · Dec 20, 2002, 04:20 AM

Originally posted by tooki:

On the desktop, that's true. On servers... i dunno! I've seen a lot of ASIP servers replaced with Linux servers running netatalk. (Often, it is the same hardware as before, just with Linux for better performance, or for other reasons.)

tooki

Valid point. But, does it even matter what OS is being used in cases like these? Apple is making money on the hardware sales, not the operating system.

In my opinion, the more *nix boxes out there, the better.

undotwa · Dec 20, 2002, 05:56 AM

Personally, I don't really care. It appears just so frikkin easy to just recompile a Linux application then apply a Cocoa interface to it (for smaller applications).

mitchell_pgh · Dec 20, 2002, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by The Dude:

Valid point. But, does it even matter what OS is being used in cases like these? Apple is making money on the hardware sales, not the operating system.

In my opinion, the more *nix boxes out there, the better.

I would have to say that Apple is also making money on the OS. They are charging just as much as Windows is... I know that they aren't selling nearly as much, but when you sell 100,000 copies of an OS that you charge $129 per copy, that starts to be significant. I think any tech company would like to bank $12,900,000 in a weekend. (I know that they have to pay for engineers, packaging, advertising etc.) But still... AND they had already charged thousands for the 10.0 version.

Valid point about Unix. I hope more people do the Unix thing as it will only help us out. The more people that use Unix will consider OS X and Apple. I love it...

Linux on a server is a No-Brainer... Free and fast... Who needs

thebunny · Dec 21, 2002, 12:39 AM

Originally posted by RMXO:
Linux isnt for everyone. not everyone are computer literate. installing OS X & windows are even easier than installing linux. unless you know what you are doing, it can be very frustrating for the avg user. even though i love my Gentoo Linux, i dont think Linux will pass Mac anytime soon...

While I agree that Windows is still easier to use I beg to differ on installation (although Gnome & KDE are gaining *quickly*). Don't copmare the installation of Windows to Gentoo (BTW they are doing a new installer based on RH's). I installed all manner of OS many times and I find that the RedHat 8.0 installer is much easier to use than WinXP. And Linux is not taking any users away from Apple, only MS and other big UNIXes (Solaris/AIX/HP-UX..). It is actually the other way around - Linux users starting to use the Mac (like me - I had to use OS 9 for work but I could never stand it (can't stand that after you used any UNIX), loving OS X all the way though).

Eug · Dec 21, 2002, 01:01 AM

Well, I downloaded Yellow Dog Linux for my TiBook.

Unfortunately, as far as I can tell the install program does not support external Firewire drives. And the drive partitioning portion of the program provides less useful info than even DOS's FDISK.

Anyways, the gist of it is that I won't be installing Linux.

RMXO · 04:19 AM

Originally posted by thebunny:

While I agree that Windows is still easier to use I beg to differ on installation (although Gnome & KDE are gaining *quickly*). Don't copmare the installation of Windows to Gentoo (BTW they are doing a new installer based on RH's). I installed all manner of OS many times and I find that the RedHat 8.0 installer is much easier to use than WinXP. And Linux is not taking any users away from Apple, only MS and other big UNIXes (Solaris/AIX/HP-UX..). It is actually the other way around - Linux users starting to use the Mac (like me - I had to use OS 9 for work but I could never stand it (can't stand that after you used any UNIX), loving OS X all the way though).

i wasnt comparing Windows & Gentoo installs. just saying i love me Gentoo box. I know Gentoo is not for the weak of heart...

Yes, I know all about the new LiveCD for Gentoo. someone actually used RH based installer earlier in the yr & asked ppl to test it for him. I actually tried it & was unsuccessful due to video probs. Now a Developer is working on it. I still prefer the old fashion way of installation but dont mind a LiveCD...

How is RH installer easier compared to XP? I say the other way around. I will admit this, certain Linux distro installer has gone a long ways now. Its a lot easier to install/configure now than a few yrs ago...

another thing about RH, MDK or any other RPM based system is the dependency problem. This is one of the main reasons why ppl leave RH, MDK, etc... for Deb, Gentoo or Slackware....

true about some linux users moving to Mac. I actually used Gentoo until i got my PB, but will dual boot Gentoo & Jag once i get off my lazy butt & do a re-install....

BTW, have you tried Gentoo? emerge & portage rocks doesn't it?

cant wait til i have enough to buy an iBook SE 466. Gentoo would purr on this machine once it actually gets done compiling....

sorwie for being off topic....

The Dude · Dec 21, 2002, 05:04 AM

Originally posted by Eug:
Well, I downloaded Yellow Dog Linux for my TiBook.

Unfortunately, as far as I can tell the install program does not support external Firewire drives. And the drive partitioning portion of the program provides less useful info than even DOS's FDISK.

Anyways, the gist of it is that I won't be installing Linux.

All I can say is: be careful.

If you're going to install it on your Ti's internal drive, make sure that drive/partition is clean of any traces of HFS. If you install linux and it's own filesystem (ext2 or 3 I believe) it'll wreck havoc. Trust me here, I did just that and I was not impressed.

MickS · Dec 21, 2002, 08:24 AM

First: I don't care. As long as Apple continue to make the most usable computers they can be in last place.

Second: I can see this happening. It will be more likely at the expense of Windows than Macs though. As it's now possible to buy a Linux PC for $200 this is going to take away a lot of the bottom end PC market.

Angus_D · Dec 21, 2002, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by The Dude:
Valid point. But, does it even matter what OS is being used in cases like these? Apple is making money on the hardware sales, not the operating system.

In my opinion, the more *nix boxes out there, the better.

But most *nix boxes are running on x86 hardware, because it's cheaper. Why would anybody buy a Mac just to install Linux on it and put it in a server farm? Doesn't make any sense. In that case, Apple is losing the hardware sale.

Eug · Dec 21, 2002, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by The Dude:

All I can say is: be careful.

If you're going to install it on your Ti's internal drive, make sure that drive/partition is clean of any traces of HFS. If you install linux and it's own filesystem (ext2 or 3 I believe) it'll wreck havoc. Trust me here, I did just that and I was not impressed.

Good to know and I suspected it would be risky. Like I said Yellow Dog's partitioning utility provides even less info compared to FDISK in DOS. Actually, looking back, FDISK ain't THAT bad, but certainly it isn't the idiot proof setup like we're used to with OS X.

I will consider a dual boot if and when I reinstall OS X, but definitely not now.

What happened to your drive?

thebunny · Dec 21, 2002, 05:44 PM

Originally posted by RMXO:

How is RH installer easier compared to XP? I say the other way around. ...

another thing about RH, MDK or any other RPM based system is the dependency problem. This is one of the main reasons why ppl leave RH, MDK, etc... for Deb, Gentoo or Slackware....

BTW, have you tried Gentoo? emerge & portage rocks doesn't it?

This is drifting a bit off topic but...

OK, case in question (don't laugh): I outfitted my mom with a dual boot WinXP/RH 8.0 (didn't have a single spare Mac floating around that would take OS X) recently and she managed to fry the disk somehow not long after. Since I wasn't available for an immediate repair she went ahead and tried it herself (not completely computer impaired woman bare in mind). Couldn't finish XP (I set to boot off CD automatically) so she tried RH 8.0 and succeeded (just clicked through I guess). Go figure! And who's installers have antialiased fonts other than Apple's? That blue MS installer is gross, press 'L', press 'Q', whatever...

You have a point about rpm dependency hell *but* if you just use up2date to update a RH box (and RH provided rpms) it will be perfectly OK. Now, if you tinker around RH is not for you and that's why I have been using Gentoo on my gaming rig (PC) for eight months now. Gentoo is fine although not as stable as RH (had disk corruption problems with some kernels from them) and the constant recompiling has me a bit tired already

On a side note: did you ever try the Debian installer? *That's* scary (lselect)

RMXO · Dec 21, 2002, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by thebunny:

This is drifting a bit off topic but...

OK, case in question (don't laugh): I outfitted my mom with a dual boot WinXP/RH 8.0 (didn't have a single spare Mac floating around that would take OS X) recently and she managed to fry the disk somehow not long after. Since I wasn't available for an immediate repair she went ahead and tried it herself (not completely computer impaired woman bare in mind). Couldn't finish XP (I set to boot off CD automatically) so she tried RH 8.0 and succeeded (just clicked through I guess). Go figure! And who's installers have antialiased fonts other than Apple's? That blue MS installer is gross, press 'L', press 'Q', whatever...

You have a point about rpm dependency hell *but* if you just use up2date to update a RH box (and RH provided rpms) it will be perfectly OK. Now, if you tinker around RH is not for you and that's why I have been using Gentoo on my gaming rig (PC) for eight months now. Gentoo is fine although not as stable as RH (had disk corruption problems with some kernels from them) and the constant recompiling has me a bit tired already

On a side note: did you ever try the Debian installer? *That's* scary (lselect)

yeah, this is gonna be way off topic but... (forgive me peeps)

im not gonna laugh but daym. how she do that. I honestly think Mandrake installer is a lot easier than RH & looks prettier too.

Yes, i have to agree RH up2date is awesome. i give them that. beats most RPM based distro's by a long shot, but when trying to install a new package & having to install other packages due to dependency can really mess up your system.

I also got tired of compiling all the time on my Gentoo box. I actually spend more time compiling than using my box. I have a dual P3 1Ghz system that runs Gentoo & compiling gets old after awhile. I never had kernel probs with Gentoo. kernel re-compiling is my favorite.

yes, Deb is scary. too geeky for my blood.

I'm glad that i decided to switch over to Jag & i still feel that Linux will never overtake Mac OS x.x.x anytime soon.

Gene Jockey · Dec 21, 2002, 09:32 PM

I've got debian woody on my TiBook dual booting with OS X. It's actually pretty decent; I have the airport card working and am using BenH's kernel for all of the fun features for my Powerbook. Runs nice. It's actually very nice to just hold down option at startup and choose the little X or the penguin. Although the best is booting Jag using MOL in linux. Very surreal.

I'm using GNOME now, as I'm used to it from using it in XDarwin. Is KDE worth checking out as a DE? Debian grabbed it when I was doing the initial install, so it's just a pref change to get it working. Just wondering...

--Josh

ApeInTheShell · Dec 21, 2002, 10:30 PM

Seeing as a majority of windows users pirate software and music, the economy now is not exactly tip top, people will migrate from Windows to Linux. They'll figure out the doo dads of the system
and become semi-content. Other windows users who actually buy software or work for a company will stick with Microsoft.
When the economy gets going though those new linux users might find Mac OS X and see the GUI and CLI and since they have prior windows expereince they might find it more enjoyable.
Linux will be placed on many desktop systems but they would have to immigrate the OS into the computer. Which is usually only successful with a macintosh.
So IBM and Sony will decide to sell Linux but it won't work in the long run since they want to license their stuff.
So Linux will go back to being an alternative and the analysts will chat with each other and i will have to type this whole post again.

thebunny · Dec 21, 2002, 11:28 PM

I promise this is the last.

Originally posted by ApeInTheShell:

So IBM and Sony will decide to sell Linux but it won't work in the long run since they want to license their stuff.

Of course they can. You can write closed source stuff (kernel modules & programs) and sell them with Linux. GPL doesn't prohibit that. What you can't do is to modify GPL software and not release your modifications (or statically link closed source software to GPL stuff, dynamic linking is allowed to LGPL but that another story).

daSilVetZ · Dec 22, 2002, 01:09 AM

Originally posted by MacGorilla:

I hear ya brother. My Mac is in the shop this week for repairs and I am using Linux as my main machine and it is difficult; even the simplest tasks, like cutting and pasting can be a task.

I hope you were being sarcastic, how much easier does it get than highlighting text with the mouse and clicking the middle mouse button

ringo · Dec 22, 2002, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by daSilVetZ:

I hope you were being sarcastic, how much easier does it get than highlighting text with the mouse and clicking the middle mouse button

Are you kidding! Everyone knows that mice only have one button!

pmcd · Dec 22, 2002, 03:30 AM

Originally posted by ApeInTheShell:
Seeing as a majority of windows users pirate software and music, the economy now is not exactly tip top, people will migrate from Windows to Linux. They'll figure out the doo dads of the system
and become semi-content. Other windows users who actually buy software or work for a company will stick with Microsoft.
When the economy gets going though those new linux users might find Mac OS X and see the GUI and CLI and since they have prior windows expereince they might find it more enjoyable.

Hmm...am I missing something here? If most Windows' users do not pay for using it (either through piracy or from their workplace) why would they migrate to Linux because of hard times? Why bother with the hassle if you're not paying anyway?

Now if piracy stopped then I suspect Windows would really be in trouble.