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You are here: MacNN Forums > News > Mac News > Analysts call for year-over-year decline in iPad sales

Analysts call for year-over-year decline in iPad sales
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MacNN Staff
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Apr 18, 2014, 11:07 AM
Almost half of a group of 34 analysts tracked by Fortune are expecting Apple to report a slight decline in iPad sales year-over-year during its Q2 2014 results, due to be announced April 23rd. The overall consensus currently sits at 19.3 million units, which would be a 0.7 percent dip. Polling among the professional analysts in the group is somewhat more positive, calling for a 19.4 million consensus versus the amateurs' 19.2 million.

The amateur pool is responsible for providing the extreme forecasts. Braeburn Group's Matt Lew is anticipating just 15 million units, which would be a 23 percent decline. Asymco's Horace Dediu, conversely, is predicting 21.81 million units, which would be a 12 percent jump.

The iPad is still the world's most popular tablet, but no longer has the overwhelming dominance it managed during its first two years. Rival Android tablets have begun to catch up to or surpass the iPad in terms of features, and some customers are now opting for phablets like the Galaxy Note 3.

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Apr 18, 2014, 11:33 AM
It's interesting how people continue to profess that non-iPad sales have increased without any documented information from the manufacturers especially in light of Samsung's court evidence documenting the bogus sales numbers they gave analysts. The only company you can trust to give actual numbers is Apple so why are we even comparing iPads against tablets numbers we know nothing about? 19M iPads in 3 months is a lot of devices to sell, especially when they've been selling more than 10M since 11Q4, that's 185M (including 19M this quarter) in 11 qtrs or almost 4 years. Find another company that sells anywhere near that many (not ships, but sells) and doesn't have half of them returned or trashed within 6 months.
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Apr 18, 2014, 11:39 AM
I remember in the 90's when analyst projected CD-ROM usage will rise in distant future.
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Apr 18, 2014, 02:43 PM
Recognizing the implicit uncertainty in an average of 34 analysts' estimates, the Fortune reference to forecast Apple iPad sales reads "...holding steady at roughly 20% of total sales."

Macnn uses Fortune's work but writes their wrongly written, misleading headline.

Pretty lame.
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Apr 18, 2014, 05:27 PM
A decline is a decline. It doesn't matter whether Apple sells more iPads than any other company on the planet. Apple is being valued strictly for growth and market share or lack thereof. Apple is not maintaining Wall Street's standards for company value and investors seem to hate that idea. Consider a company like Netflix which pales in comparison to anything Apple has but the share price is certainly valued far higher than Apple. Apple could probably put Netflix out of business if it really wanted to or simply buy the company. If Apple were to buy Netflix, Wall Street would suddenly consider Netflix worthless.________

In order for Apple to be considered a valuable company on Wall Street, Apple would certainly have to have the highest tablet market share and increase unit sales at least 5% every quarter. That still wouldn't matter because most of Apple's money comes from selling iPhones which is also losing market share and quarterly growth. So although Apple continues to make more money than any other tech company around, the stock will remain undervalued when compared to its peers who are managing more growth per quarter. Apple's overall financial success will never translate to shareholder value unless they acquire some huge company like Visa or MasterCard or maybe even a company like Tesla. Don't expect anything from Apple. No matter how many iPads are sold, Apple shareholders are going to be slaughtered during and after earnings call and Tim Cook will act all surprised yet again because he's clueless.
Charles Martin
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Apr 18, 2014, 06:15 PM
Well, let's see here ... AAPL is up $190 per share from its 52-week low ... that's 34 percent incidentally ... up 3.15 percent from six months ago, and up $6 today. And this is the "deadest" period of the year, six months away from the next iPhone and iPad announcements and Apple's annual license to print money ... yeah boy what a slaughter! Oh the humanity!!
Charles Martin
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Apr 19, 2014, 04:40 AM
Why is this worth the emotional investment?

The Android tablets will eventually outsell the iPad, it's just a matter of time before this is so. You can't beat cheap and more brands and options to push at users (particularly with the generally positive reputation associated with the Android brand established from its success with phones), nor can you expect that the quality of software for Android tablets will remain static in perpetuity.

Are all of you guys interested in Apple's stock price Apple stock holders? If you aren't, I don't see why people get worked up over these sorts of stories. Apple is not going to die anytime soon, and if it dips in value, who cares? These dips are often temporary, and even if this one isn't, Apple still is healthy enough that some loss in value isn't the end-of-the-world, especially when there always exists the potential that Apple will regain this value with some other new future product. You can't live and die with every quarterly earnings report with any company.
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