[Capt Shane]

Originally posted by ThinkInsane:
I'm really surprised by my voting experience this morning. I waited in line for about 45 minutes. I've been voting at the same polling place for about the last five years, and never before have I had to wait to cast my vote. It gives me hope that maybe this year we will have a voter turn out that is not an embarrassment.

Here in North Central Florida there was a 15 min line to bubble your ballot. At 930 this morning there were just over 2000 ballots counted according to the machine!

[dreilly1]

Originally posted by Capt Shane:
Correct me if I am wrong but doesn't it not matter what guam votes cause they aren't a state or district, but a territory?

You, sir, are correct. DC is the only non-state to get electoral votes. And they had to pass an amendment to do that...

http://www.archives.gov/federal_regi...llege/faq.html

[RAILhead]

Originally posted by djohnson:
Anyone want to see what it looks like here in West Texas?

http://www.weatherunderground.com/cg...st?query=79424

I am glad I voted last Thursday! It has been snowing all morning long. Get out and vote!

Holy crap, man! Send some of that down here to all of down on the Coast!

Maury

[Turias]

So today is officially my least productive day at work. Ever,

[BRussell]

The first round of exit polls show Kerry kicking ass, leading in Florida, Minn., Ohio, PA, WI, NH, NM, tied in Iowa.

[mo]

Originally posted by BRussell:
The first round of exit polls show Kerry kicking ass, leading in Florida, Minn., Ohio, PA, WI, NH, NM, tied in Iowa.

Take 'em with a grain of salt (or sugar, depending on your political preference). You know all the standard warnings about exit polls, especially this time of day. ...

[boots]

Originally posted by BRussell:
The first round of exit polls show Kerry kicking ass, leading in Florida, Minn., Ohio, PA, WI, NH, NM, tied in Iowa.

From where is that data coming?

[Logic]

Originally posted by mo:
Take 'em with a grain of salt (or sugar, depending on your political preference). You know all the standard warnings about exit polls, especially this time of day. ...

But isn't the trend that the Republicans vote earlier than the Democrats? Or am I confusing Sweden/Iceland with the US

[mikellanes]

Originally posted by Logic:
But isn't the trend that the Republicans vote earlier than the Democrats? Or am I confusing Sweden/Iceland with the US

And how does all the Early voting figure in this, I heard 76% of the early voting in my area (Martin County, Florida) were Democrats so if this is a trend? Who the heck knows :-) Few more hours hopefully..

[BRussell]

Originally posted by boots:
From where is that data coming?

You can find them on all of the political sites like atrios, nro, drudge, etc.

And shame on you, as a scientist - "that data."

[Millennium]

Originally posted by dreilly1:
You, sir, are correct. DC is the only non-state to get electoral votes. And they had to pass an amendment to do that...

http://www.archives.gov/federal_regi...llege/faq.html

To be precise, DC is given as many electoral votes as the least-populous state. Currently, that means three electoral votes.

[mo]

Originally posted by mikellanes:
And how does all the Early voting figure in this, I heard 76% of the early voting in my area (Martin County, Florida) were Democrats so if this is a trend? Who the heck knows :-) Few more hours hopefully..

They're exit polls -- so they basically have no direct way to factor in early voting. (Remember the enormous importance of absentee ballots four years ago?) They can (and will) try to estimate the sum effect of early voting, which means they will have to make more assumptions, and create an estimate of an estimate, which would be even worse right now.

It's been postulated that Republicans vote earlier, but it's not exactly a law like gravity or "no right on red." What you have at this time is a portion of a data set taken to estimate what probably is happening, but not to predict with any real precision. Nobody is going to "call" the outcome of a major state without a lot more data -- which will include looking at preliminary, but real, raw vote totals and turnout in specific areas. (I imagine you knew that, but maybe other people less familiar with our elections might not.)

There is a good discussion of the merits of exit polls over at this site.

(Not that I'm implying it's not interesting, BRussell. It sure is.)

[Shaddim]

Originally posted by BRussell:
You can find them on all of the political sites like atrios, nro, drudge, etc.

And shame on you, as a scientist - "that data."

Although, the gender % of that poll data, so far, is 59% women, 41% men.

[boots]

Originally posted by BRussell:
You can find them on all of the political sites like atrios, nro, drudge, etc.

And shame on you, as a scientist - "that data."

Excuse, please. Those data.

(If enough people mis-use it, that mis-use will become standard usage. To quote Christina Aguillara, "I'm starting a movement!")

[dgs212]

I've heard quite a few times in the past weeks from various political analysts that huge voter turnout is always bad for the incumbent.

[itai195]

In my area pretty much everyone who has a job votes in the morning, because a lot of tech people work well past 7PM. I've never seen turnout like what I saw today though. I was about #375 and it was only 8:15 AM, 75 minutes after polls opened. The line was longer when I left than it was when I got there, and I had to wait 45 minutes.

Probably only vmpaul cares, but I ended up voting yes on 71 (stem cell research). It's my contingency to stick one in Bush's eye just in case Kerry loses

[BlueSky]

My polling place is literally next door. Walked over, no lines, voted Kerry into office, bam.

That was too easy.

[daimoni]

.

[boots]

Originally posted by daimoni:
I have relatives and friends (and friends of friends) who are DA's, defense attorneys, judges, retired police officers and former mayors.

My dad was connected with the law enforcement community in my home town, so I always knew the hubbub about each candidate....here, it's not easy to get useful information. Everyone has an opinion, but no one seems to be able to defend it. It's frustrating sometimes. But like I said, I went with the "if it ain't broke" voter guide.

[vmpaul]

Originally posted by itai195:
Probably only vmpaul cares, but I ended up voting yes on 71 (stem cell research). It's my contingency to stick one in Bush's eye just in case Kerry loses

I do and that's great. I think the Guvinator coming out in favor really put this over the top. It's a good hedge in case Bush wins.

Plus, when the first stem cell therapy is approved, everyone can thank CA.

[Logic]

Is there any online stream available of the coverage? Fiancee is going to steal the TV

[Weezer]

http://www.powerlineblog.com/

[Logic]

Bush: 34

Kerry: 3


Not a good start

[swrate]

Originally posted by Logic:
Bush: 34

Kerry: 3


Not a good start

another biased source
Drudge report has different numbers

http://drudgereport.com/
I wonder how high the percentage of participation is? seems higher much higher then the was it 50 % at last elections?

[Krusty]

Originally posted by swrate:

I wonder how high the percentage of participation is? seems higher much higher then the was it 50 % at last elections?

The only number I've heard is "upwards of 125 million" .. which when you take away people ineligible to vote (people under 18, felons, etc) should put it well over the 50% mark. A British site was reporting that it would be the highest turnout since '68.

[edit]Wow, surprisingly the vote in VA has so far gone 57/42 for Kerry. This was supposed to be a lock for Bush, I thought. Also, yahoo is calling WV for Bush ... but it incorrectly listed it as having 15 electorals ... it really only has 5

[Shaddim]

Looks like Tom Daschle is going to lose his senate seat.

[Eug Wanker]

Canadian here, watching from above.

Kudos guys and gals, for the good voter turnout.

[ironknee]

Originally posted by Krusty:
The only number I've heard is "upwards of 125 million" .. which when you take away people ineligible to vote (people under 18, felons, etc) should put it well over the 50% mark. A British site was reporting that it would be the highest turnout since '68.

[edit]Wow, surprisingly the vote in VA has so far gone 57/42 for Kerry. This was supposed to be a lock for Bush, I thought. Also, yahoo is calling WV for Bush ... but it incorrectly listed it as having 15 electorals ... it really only has 5

I was looking for the same thing, i found

Year 2000
Voting Age
Population (VAP) 205,815,000

Total Vote 105,399,313
% VAP Voted 51.2

http://www2.gwu.edu/~action/electrte.html

[OldManMac]

Turnout seems to be heavy everywhere. I was there at 6:45 a.m., and I was #27 in line. By the time I left, a little after 7, there were at least 150 people in line, on a rainy morning, in a town of 40,000 with multiple polling places. Very encouraging.

[Krusty]

oops, yahoo double-fubar. They switch WV back to the correct 5 and flip-flopped� the Bush/Kerry numbers. Carry on.

[voodoo]

Originally posted by MacNStein:
Looks like Tom Daschle is going to lose his senate seat.

Oh yeah! Us foreign agents like that

[xi_hyperon]

77 EVs projected now for Kerry
66 EVs projected now for Bush

CNN, ABC

[icruise]

Originally posted by xi_hyperon:
77 EVs projected now for Kerry
66 EVs projected now for Bush

CNN, ABC

Yep. The only thing that is a semi-surprise is New Jersey for Kerry, since it seemed a bit close from the polls.

[Krusty]

My state will go strong Bush. But, looking at early results (15% reporting), looks like my county is going for Kerry 54/44 -- amazing considering that the neighboring county is a whopping 61/38 for Bush. What a bastion of liberalism we are here

[edit]
updated numbers

[Zimphire]

[Voch]

It looks like Ohio's Issue 1 (the defense of marriage thingy) is going to pass 2-to-1. I wonder if that points to Bush winning the state's electoral votes, too.

Voch

[Shaddim]

Originally posted by Zimphire:

Yeah, we carried our states, not much we can do beyond that.

[Voch]

Ohio's final tally, if it's not a spread of 4 points either way, may take two weeks, according to this article.

If Ohio's presidential vote on Tuesday is as close as polls predict, the result may not be known for two weeks -- longer if there's a recount.
...
Ohioans can't be confident of the winner on Tuesday night unless President Bush or Sen. John Kerry takes the state by a margin of 4 percentage points or greater, said Daniel Tokaji, an Ohio State University law professor who specializes in election law.

[mikellanes]

This page:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pag.../00/index.html

Looks almost exactly like it did for 2000, will be tight in Florida again I think...

[FulcrumPilot]

Originally posted by Voch:
Ohio's final tally, if it's not a spread of 4 points either way, may take two weeks, according to this article.

Last I heard it was getting messy in Ohio, lots of confusion amongst voters. Anyone from there?

[Hugi]

In case you don't know this site, I find it absolutely essential for following the election: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ . You might need to wait for a while to get in.

[dreilly1]

Originally posted by Hugi:
In case you don't know this site, I find it absolutely essential for following the election: http://www.electoral-vote.com/ . You might need to wait for a while to get in.

He's mirroring it on www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com . Try those.

I can get www.electoral-vote9.com to load, although it may not be updated...

[Voch]

Originally posted by FulcrumPilot:
Last I heard it was getting messy in Ohio, lots of confusion amongst voters. Anyone from there?

Uh...me? I'm a native Clevelander...

ABC News TV just reported about things going smoothly in Ohio except for the long lines STILL at the polling places (likely in big cities). In Ohio if you're in line at poll closing time you can wait to get to vote. According to ABC News there are still long lines and that Democrats are scrambling to find these people alternative ways to vote (paper ballot, etc.) so they'll stick around to cast a vote.

I'm checking local updates, too (when our local channels do updates) but have seen no live reporting from polling places like they did this morning.

I find this all very fascinating about my state...

Local TV says Bush 52%, Kerry 48% with 6% of precincts reporting (basically, it's a toss-up). Absentee ballots were going for Kerry something like 61% to 39% but I'm not sure if that was Ohio in general or just Cleveland (which is more Democratic).

There are likely lots of provisional ballots (given to people who show up to vote but aren't necessarily at the right place or got their registrations messed up or something like that)...they are checked and counted last. Those may be the fun part of calling Ohio and may take a while if it's close.

Voch

[Hugi]

Originally posted by dreilly1:
He's mirroring it on www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com . Try those.

I can get www.electoral-vote9.com to load, although it may not be updated...

Whoops, thanks! This really comes in handy up here .

[vmpaul]

I thought the networks were going to be more careful this time around? I've seen this a couple of times already:

0% Precincts reporting

0% Bush
0% Kerry

....and then they call the state.

I know they're basing the projection on exit polls but it sure looks stupid when they do that. Couldn't they wait to show SOME votes that have been counted?

[Shaddim]

Yeah, I just saw Utah being called for Bush with 0% of precincts reporting.



well... I suppose that's not a good example.

[mo]

Missouri is unusually close. It was conceded to Bush weeks ago; it's close now, without the metro areas of St. Louis and Kansas City reporting. Kerry is running unusually strong in the St. Louis suburbs, which are important. I still think the state is going Bush, but I expected it to be called by now. It can't be. I'll be curious to see what the networks do at nine o'clock here -- the polls have been closed here for two hours, and I know the exit poll data show Bush ahead.

[Hugi]

Argh, the "battle state" results are coming in too slowly, and tomorrow's work day is approaching too fast .

[Joshua]

They're obviously terrified about declaring Florida. With about 80% of the precincts reporting in, including most of the Democrat-heavy precincts, Bush has a 5% lead. Understandable after 2000, but I have a feeling we won't have a final result tonight.

[torsoboy]

Bush 176, Kerry 112

link

Go Bush!