[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

No, I know that one. It's useless for comparison and we already know whites break red regardless of gender. This year may be a first in that regard.

Well excuuuuuuuse me!

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

No, I know that one. It's useless for comparison and we already know whites break red regardless of gender. This year may be a first in that regard.

Just heard in a podcast that Hillarys female advantage is +14 vs +8 for Obama in 2012.

[subego]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

Point 1) does the video describe violence:
There is a scene in Deadwood in which the whore Trixie is grabbed as Donald describes. It was violent and unpleasant. I'm not sure why anyone would think this is ok talk.

I want to say, if the "octopus" allegations are legitimate, we are most assuredly getting uncomfortably close to what you describe.

[The Final Dakar]

Trump has gone full conspiracy.

...and as someone on twitter put it, put on a masterclass in why women don't come forward with claims of sexual assault.

[P]

Originally Posted by subego 

I don't think the practices of that poll are necessarily poor. Since it's trying to do something different it's very easy for it to be abused by being represented (whether nefariously or ignorantly) as a normal poll.

As the article mentions, the only reason it was possible for them to write it was because of the transparent polling practices. That's an excellent practice.

Transparency about polling practices is a very good idea, but there are several bad ideas in there. One is that the sample sizes in each group are minuscule, which is always bad. It would also have been easy for them to guard against this error - simply average up bigger groups (say 18-29 year olds) as well as the current small slices and compare the results. You would have seen rather quickly that something was wrong with the old model.

The other is using voting results from the last election to generate groups. Simply put: they need to watch some more House MD reruns.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Trump has gone full conspiracy.

...and as someone on twitter put it, put on a masterclass in why women don't come forward with claims of sexual assault.

Lou Dobbs doxxed an accuser, apologized and left the tweet up.

[subego]

Silver is giving McMullin two-tenths of an electoral vote.

Jill Stein must want to blow her brains out.

[The Final Dakar]

If you're wondering how many days it took before the media ****ed Ken Bone, the answer is five.

[Laminar]

Was it from his Reddit comments? I was reading that last night and didn't imagine how using his real Reddit name was a good idea.

The rest of the AMA was hilarious, he seems like a funny guy.

[andi*pandi]

apparently he shilled for uber and now the media hates him for selling out?

[The Final Dakar]

Reddit. I haven't seen anyone angry for him cashing in on his 15 minutes.

[Laminar]

I think he specified that 10% of whatever he made from appearances went to a charity supporting the homeless.

[starman]

Trump campaign pulled out of VA. Current prediction is that he loses by over 100 electoral votes.

Bye, Felicia.

[subego]

Originally Posted by subego 

Silver is giving McMullin two-tenths of an electoral vote.

Jill Stein must want to blow her brains out.

Now he's ranking McMullin's EC count as higher than Johnson.

[The Final Dakar]

Well yeah. Johnson can get 10x the votes and it means shit because he can't win a state. Mcmuffin has an outside shot at Utah now

[subego]

Oh, it makes sense... I just imagine Johnson needed a few extra tokes once he saw it.

[andi*pandi]

Johnson just went on a 70 mile bike rally.

[The Final Dakar]

Anyone a little concerned that the 2016 election is the only thing keeping the forums open?

[subego]

I had noticed. Some of that could be sucked-out oxygen.

[The Final Dakar]

I'd like to welcome Ben Carson to the dark side. Six months after campaigning as a religious, common sense having non-politician, he did a segment segment on Morning Joe saying sexual assault doesn't matter and that the appropriate time to talk about Christian values is after the campaign.

[besson3c]

This really feels like the left's turn to do what the right did during the Lewinsky days, and obsess over these sex scandals, using sex as a means to take down a politician.

[starman]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

This really feels like the left's turn to do what the right did during the Lewinsky days, and obsess over these sex scandals, using sex as a means to take down a politician.

This is quite a bit different.

[Waragainstsleep]

Politician feels like a stretch. Doesn't that require some actual policies?

[The Final Dakar]

Dear Evangelicals:




Dear Godless Heathens:



I don't know if I should be surprised by that number of evangelicals lying to themselves.

Originally Posted by subego 

1) I'm glad you have returned.

2) Please forgive me for being a dick.

3) I'm still genuinely interested in your opinions. Have you come any closer to a decision?

2. I already forgave everyone and you (and others) owe me nothing. Since 2004, the heated accusatory nature of politics has crept its way into the living room in a way that has made me uncomfortable talking about politics. I just let people talk it out and I do more listening.

3. Speaking of listening, I'll watch the 3rd debate, but for the time being, the most qualified candidate who stands a chance I think is Gary Johnson. I just do not respect either of the two leading candidates due to one reason or another. Besides, Gary Johnson... the guy has been up Mount Everest and did the 7 peaks, and various marathons, I mean how awesome is that for a politician? And despite his controversial views on a variety of topics such as the no-fly list and gun laws, he's done the research to back it up.


So, I am willing to risk "throwing my vote away" just to show how much I will not support the two leading candidates.

[The Final Dakar]

He does not have a chance.

[The Final Dakar]

So that TrumpTV thing might actually happen.

[P]

Of course TrumpTV will happen. I think Trump gave up on winning this thing already, and he's currently getting ready to launch it as an alt-right TV network.

[P]

His slide in the polls hasn't stopped, btw, but there is a bit of a gap until another state turns blue. That errant district in ME just went blue, along with one in NE, but now there is nothing more until GA which is a few points off yet. After that is actually AK, where Johnson is eroding Trump's share far enough that he might actually lose the state to Clinton.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by P 

Of course TrumpTV will happen. I think Trump gave up on winning this thing already, and he's currently getting ready to launch it as an alt-right TV network.

You'll have to pardon me for being skeptical of a man who talks a big game

[The Final Dakar]

So much for letting the people decide

[subego]

If the people decide the Senate has a Republican majority, then that's what the people have decided, no?

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

If the people decide the Senate has a Republican majority, then that's what the people have decided, no?

That's not why we're waiting, though, is it?

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

That's not why we're waiting, though, is it?

I'm confused. That's exactly why we're waiting. If the Senate majority wants to block appointments, they get to do that. Those are the rules.

The only thing which will break the logjam are the respective constituencies telling enough Senators to go pound dirt.

[The Final Dakar]

I guess I was in my own universe when Senate republicans explained why Garland would not get a vote.

[subego]

Do we really need an explanation? They decided to hold out for a nomination from a Republican President, and that's shaping up like the Ark scene at the end of Raiders.

Plan B is to keep the Senate and eat shit for four more years.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

Do we really need an explanation? They decided to hold out for a nomination from a Republican President, and that's shaping up like the Ark scene at the end of Raiders.

Plan B is to keep the Senate and eat shit for four more years.

You're making an argument they didn't make. Excuse me for holding them to their words.

[subego]

Which words?

You don't have to cite, just point me to where I should google.

[andi*pandi]

Scrutinizing judicial candidates and turning them down based on lack of merit etc is valid.

Refusing to even bother pretending to scrutinize candidates is not doing their job. They knew there was nothing wrong with the candidate and were being obstructionist. It's not like Obama nominated Ted Bundy.

Their "take the ball and go home" attitude is messing with our judicial system.

[subego]

Don't get me wrong, I don't like it, I'm just saying there's no real way to stop them.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

Scrutinizing judicial candidates and turning them down based on lack of merit etc is valid.

Refusing to even bother pretending to scrutinize candidates is not doing their job. They knew there was nothing wrong with the candidate and were being obstructionist. It's not like Obama nominated Ted Bundy.

Their "take the ball and go home" attitude is messing with our judicial system.

Its the ultimate display of what liberals and democrats have been saying all along: it doesn't matter what Obama offers because republicans are obstinate.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

Which words?

You don't have to cite, just point me to where I should google.

Essentially 'let the people decide' via president.

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Essentially 'let the people decide' via president.

Oh... this is Republican humor.

I've got nothing.

[The Final Dakar]

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/788117399090323456

Extremely long lines form at Atlanta-area polling locations on the first day of early voting in Georgia.

[P]

Originally Posted by subego 

If the people decide the Senate has a Republican majority, then that's what the people have decided, no?

ITYM "if the people decide to vote for at least 41 Republicans". Filibusters are still an option for SCOTUS nominations. That said, the Senate did vote to confirm Obama's first nominees.

[subego]

My prediction is at least one more, probably two, have to croak before this starts causing the Republicans damage.

[subego]

An interesting point was made (by JuRY, natch) about why the "rigged" narrative has people worried.

Take Mike Pence for example, who took it upon himself to start walking his running mate's statements back.

On November 9th, Trump gets to go back to his life of billion dollar write-offs. Pence has to go back to his life in politics.

A similar point was made much earlier, as Trump became a serious contender. Establishment operatives who would be all over a normal candidate weren't flocking to Trump because they still need jobs in politics if their candidate loses. Much safer to sit this one out rather than risk soiling their brand should said contender be unable to, I dunno... pivot?

[Cap'n Tightpants]

I stopped watching JuRY, his own powerful biases make him an "untrustworthy narrator", so to speak. When he's on Night Attack his cohort Brian keeps him on the rails, on his own he hugs the DNC too closely... and we all know what happens when you hug a pig.

[subego]

Compared to most pundits, I think he does a really good job.

He's neutral enough he points out things my own biases get in the way of seeing.

[The Final Dakar]

If there's one thing that's surprised me lately is how little hay anyone was able to make out of Hillarys Wall Street transcripts. I thought for sure there'd be some type of bomb in there. The worst seems to be her confirming her more center left status.