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The Final Dakar · Oct 11, 2016, 11:24 AM

Context is key. Both in this scenario and yours.

subego · Oct 11, 2016, 11:29 AM

The overall context is he's trying to impress young studs with how much of an ass bandit he still is even though he's this fat, old mother****er.

Which is more likely? He's impressing them with how he gets away with sexual assault, or he's impressing them with how quickly he can get to third base?

The Final Dakar · Oct 11, 2016, 11:42 AM

Here's the thing: A lot of times people who commit sexual assault dont think what they're doing is sexual assault. I'll remind you this is the man with the classy lawyer who said it's not by law possible to rape your wife.

Chongo · Oct 11, 2016, 12:28 PM

Wikileaks Podesta emails.
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails...6#searchresult

subego · Oct 11, 2016, 01:16 PM

Where's the punditry?

Chongo · Oct 11, 2016, 01:33 PM

Originally Posted by Chongo

Wikileaks Podesta emails.
https://wikileaks.org/podesta-emails...6#searchresult

Originally Posted by subego

Where's the punditry?

Let's see. Will Hillary return the money the Saudis and Qatar donated to the Clinton Foundation after she admits they are funding ISIS? I doubt it.

Trump should run ads with this email dissing millions of Catholics.

andi*pandi · 04:54 PM

^^Hi, I'm here.

Point 1) does the video describe violence:
There is a scene in Deadwood in which the whore Trixie is grabbed as Donald describes. It was violent and unpleasant. I'm not sure why anyone would think this is ok talk.

Grabbing women and doing what you want to them, assuming that if they don't immediately kick you in the balls they are cool with it, is just... ffffffffff.

Assuming you have the right to grab a woman, is male entitlement and damned proof we still need a women's movement. Cavemen.

The number of women responding to the twitter feed @kellyoxford #notokay with stories, is horrifying. Many people, especially if they've been thru violence before, freeze in such situations instead of kicking, shoving, twisting in retaliation. Many women have been raised to expect such behavior (boys being boys) as normal. Heck, boys have been raised to think so. It's really not. How many people in this thread have been touched inappropriately without permission? https://twitter.com/kellyoxford/stat...41062119456769

Point 2) It's not the word, vulgar as it is, it's the actions described that are truly gross. Daily Show actually did a good job showing the difference. The fact that there are "porn for women" books like 50 shades of grey etc with naughty words and sexy talk does not mean that it's ok to just grab a woman. I've not read 50 shades, but understand that a big part of the book, and the BSDM lifestyle, is a CONSENT form. Comparing the two is like saying a woman in a short dress is asking for it.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 07:45 AM

Originally Posted by andi*pandi

There is a scene in Deadwood in which the whore Trixie is grabbed as Donald describes. It was violent and unpleasant. I'm not sure why anyone would think this is ok talk.

I don't recall that scene, but I recall enough of the series to get the picture.

I full-throatedly challenge this comparison. The words he said apply to a continuum of behavior. Upon what basis is the position on the continuum being determined so precisely?

I will grant this scenario is possible, and said possibility is a reason the exchange merits discussion, but without further evidence to support it, and in a more formal context, an argument can be made the unequivocal statement quoted above borders on libel.

To be clear, I don't really care about that from a justice standpoint. I'm using such strong language to describe the vast chasm between what there's evidence for and what's being claimed.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 08:25 AM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

Here's the thing: A lot of times people who commit sexual assault dont think what they're doing is sexual assault. I'll remind you this is the man with the classy lawyer who said it's not by law possible to rape your wife.

This is a fair point, but it brings the discussion back to the question of whether it's assault being up to the person being grabbed.

They get to decide. I don't get to decide. The Coop doesn't get to decide.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 09:23 AM

Arizona just flipped again.

besson3c · Oct 12, 2016, 09:46 AM

Originally Posted by subego

Arizona just flipped again.

Wow, 90% Hillary in the Now-cast, a 7 point lead. What was Obama's biggest lead in 2008?

besson3c · Oct 12, 2016, 09:49 AM

It looks like it's the same as Obama in 2008. Arizona and Indiana are flipped, but they have the same number of electoral votes.

P · Oct 12, 2016, 09:57 AM

Clinton is currently predicted above the 332 EC votes that Obama got in 2012 (but well below the 2008 map).

besson3c · Oct 12, 2016, 10:27 AM

Originally Posted by P

Clinton is currently predicted above the 332 EC votes that Obama got in 2012 (but well below the 2008 map).

I don't understand why this map has electoral vote fractions? http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...id=rrpromo#now

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 10:32 AM

~~IIUC, Nebraska and Maine aren't winner take all in the EC.~~

Never mind. Misunderstood the question.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 10:35 AM

I think the answer to the actual question you're asking is because the EC counts are an average of 20K runs of the simulation.

besson3c · Oct 12, 2016, 10:51 AM

I was assuming that the Silver mathematical model doesn't do winner-take-all, but if my understanding is right, if this same map was drawn winner-take-all, Clinton's total would be identical to Obama's 2008 total.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 10:53 AM

The other thing that bothered me: He talks about taking the woman furniture shopping. I assumed it was just as companionship, but if he purchased furniture for his conquest, then his sexual overtures would carry the weight of the woman owing him. Why changes the optics on their consent.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

The other thing that bothered me: He talks about taking the woman furniture shopping. I assumed it was just as companionship, but if he purchased furniture for his conquest, then his sexual overtures would carry the weight of the woman owing him. Why changes the optics on their consent.

This is a good point, but I find it hard to focus on when where he took her was Ikea.

I don't expect him to have taste, but he should assume his date does.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 11:02 AM

Originally Posted by besson3c

I was assuming that the Silver mathematical model doesn't do winner-take-all, but if my understanding is right, if this same map was drawn winner-take-all, Clinton's total would be identical to Obama's 2008 total.

See my edit.

But to specifically answer this, that's not an EC map, it's an EC probability map. It isn't dealing with integers, so the summed results aren't integers.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 11:06 AM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

The other thing that bothered me: He talks about taking the woman furniture shopping. I assumed it was just as companionship, but if he purchased furniture for his conquest, then his sexual overtures would carry the weight of the woman owing him. Why changes the optics on their consent.

I can give a more serious answer, but I want to clarify... do you mean "[t]he why" in the last sentence?

P · Oct 12, 2016, 11:23 AM

Originally Posted by subego

I think the answer to the actual question you're asking is because the EC counts are an average of 20K runs of the simulation.

Basically yes. You can look up the details of the model, but essentially, it is run by starting from the base polling average for each state and the introducing possible errors based on region, state, demographics, etc. Combining one setting for all of these things is one run, and then it is run many times - at least 20 000. The win percentage and EC vote percentage are the number of times that person won, and the average number of votes they got.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 11:34 AM

Originally Posted by subego

I can give a more serious answer, but I want to clarify... do you mean "[t]he why" in the last sentence?

Which. Obviously I don't proofread on the phone.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 11:35 AM

Originally Posted by subego

This is a good point, but I find it hard to focus on when where he took her was Ikea.

I don't expect him to have taste, but he should assume his date does.

A savvy business man knows a good deal when he sees one. But seriously it can add up depending.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 11:36 AM

There might be some uncomfortable conversations the day after the election.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 11:56 AM

If after Election Day they're still "not sure", I give up.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 11:58 AM

Also **** your I love ikea

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 11:58 AM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

A savvy business man knows a good deal when he sees one. But seriously it can add up depending.

One of my favorite lines from the ancient scrolls of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy...

"Oh, they have good stuff at Ikea, you just didn't buy any of it."

Snow-i · Oct 12, 2016, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

There might be some uncomfortable conversations the day after the election.

Any couple that lets this travesty of intellectual cirrhosis that you're all calling an election have a real impact on their relationship isn't going to last long anyways.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 02:58 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

The other thing that bothered me: He talks about taking the woman furniture shopping. I assumed it was just as companionship, but if he purchased furniture for his conquest, then his sexual overtures would carry the weight of the woman owing him. Why changes the optics on their consent.

Didn't the person involved not consent to anything?

Wasn't that his complaint? He didn't get on base by way of his unchained, alpha pheromones, a (presumed) ride in his sweet limo, or taking her to Ikea.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 03:14 PM

his comments implied that this method usually worked.

Waragainstsleep · Oct 12, 2016, 03:20 PM

I heard Hillary is neck and neck to win Utah.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 03:33 PM

I believe that when I see more polls. As it is I expect Trumps numbers to rebound some. Dead cat bounce or not.

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

his comments implied that this method usually worked.

What did you think was going on before the earth-shattering revelations from this tape?

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 03:52 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

I believe that when I see more polls. As it is I expect Trumps numbers to rebound some. Dead cat bounce or not.

Yeah... looks like Utah gets polled once a month by a single outfit.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by subego

What did you think was going on before the earth-shattering revelations from this tape?

Huh?

subego · Oct 12, 2016, 04:05 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

Huh?

Is not the allegation Trump uses his wealth to his advantage when engaging in courtship rituals?

Is that a surprise?

OAW · Oct 12, 2016, 04:12 PM

The gender gap in this election is YYUUUGGGEEEEE!!!!!

Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight

OAW

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 04:57 PM

Originally Posted by subego

Is not the allegation Trump uses his wealth to his advantage when engaging in courtship rituals?

Is that a surprise?

You completely missed my point. I was pointing out that he was using his game and wealth to create situations where the women would feel indebted to him when he pulled his 'moves'.

OAW · Oct 12, 2016, 05:23 PM

Originally Posted by OAW

The gender gap in this election is YYUUUGGGEEEEE!!!!!

Election Update: Women Are Defeating Donald Trump | FiveThirtyEight

OAW

And Trump's son decided to use the second map in an email blast to Trump supporters to claim that his father has "momentum". The Trump Campaign truly is living in an alternate reality.

Eric Trump Used An “If Only Men Voted” Map To Convince Supporters His Dad Has “Momentum” | BuzzFeed.com

OAW

Waragainstsleep · Oct 12, 2016, 07:01 PM

So apparently American women are smart. You boys need to get your act together.

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 10:43 PM

I think males are the only minority that the GOP gets a majority of votes from.

Is there any gender gap maps from 2012?

The Final Dakar · Oct 12, 2016, 11:08 PM

Originally Posted by Snow-i

Any couple that lets this travesty of intellectual cirrhosis that you're all calling an election have a real impact on their relationship isn't going to last long anyways.

You seem grumpy.

The Final Dakar · Oct 13, 2016, 10:52 AM

The best illustration between conservative elites and mass public I've ever seen

subego · Oct 13, 2016, 11:58 AM

I keep on expecting Hillary to shelve, but she's in grasping distance of 90/10 on the Silverometer.

subego · Oct 13, 2016, 12:18 PM

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar

I think males are the only minority that the GOP gets a majority of votes from.

Is there any gender gap maps from 2012?

Here's a 2012 white male map.

(Gawd... I hate this type of map projection)

P · Oct 13, 2016, 12:23 PM

This story illustrates the dangers of poor polling practices:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/up...smtyp=cur&_r=0

TL;DR: The LA Times/USC Dornsife poll uses a fixed panel of respondents to poll. Because they have a hard time getting people from certain demographic groups to join, they weight people representing them - especially the category "young black men" - very heavily. One guy - a 19-year old black man in Illinois - apparently likes Trump, something that is quite rare for that demographic group. This alone has shown that Trump has double digit level support in that demographic group, something that no other poll has shown.

There are other problems with the poll, but this little detail struck me as an amusing detail.

besson3c · Oct 13, 2016, 12:38 PM

White men suck.

The Final Dakar · Oct 13, 2016, 12:46 PM

Originally Posted by subego

Here's a 2012 white male map.

(Gawd... I hate this type of map projection)

No, I know that one. It's useless for comparison and we already know whites break red regardless of gender. This year may be a first in that regard.

subego · Oct 13, 2016, 12:47 PM

Originally Posted by P

This story illustrates the dangers of poor polling practices:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/up...smtyp=cur&_r=0

TL;DR: The LA Times/USC Dornsife poll uses a fixed panel of respondents to poll. Because they have a hard time getting people from certain demographic groups to join, they weight people representing them - especially the category "young black men" - very heavily. One guy - a 19-year old black man in Illinois - apparently likes Trump, something that is quite rare for that demographic group. This alone has shown that Trump has double digit level support in that demographic group, something that no other poll has shown.

There are other problems with the poll, but this little detail struck me as an amusing detail.

I don't think the practices of that poll are necessarily poor. Since it's trying to do something different it's very easy for it to be abused by being represented (whether nefariously or ignorantly) as a normal poll.

As the article mentions, the only reason it was possible for them to write it was because of the transparent polling practices. That's an excellent practice.