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What, Still Here? The General Election Punditry and Numbers Thread (Page 17)
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Chongo
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Oct 28, 2016, 05:35 PM
 
It's Carlos Danger's fault.
New Emails in Clinton Case Came From Devices Once Used by Anthony Weiner
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/29/us...mail.html?_r=0
Politics
Computer seized in Weiner probe prompts FBI to take new steps in Clinton email inquiry

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...a_breakingnews
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subego  (op)
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Oct 28, 2016, 05:56 PM
 
Welp... Hillary's going to have to murder him now.
     
Chongo
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Oct 28, 2016, 05:57 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Welp... Hillary's going to have to murder him now.
I'm surprised it hasn't happened already.
45/47
     
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Oct 28, 2016, 06:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Arizona, too.
Yup, but not when I posted - and in the meantime, Ohio move all of 0.2% and is back to lavender.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
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Oct 28, 2016, 06:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I should add, if Ohio goes red it will be the first time since 1960 that they didn't vote with the presidential winner. Quite the streak to break.
Missouri voted with the winner every time from 1956 until 2008, when McCain won with results so close that Obama could have requested a recount (but did not, because he already had the EC majority). Before that, the last time it voted with the loser was in 1900.

More importantly, no Republican ever won without Ohio.
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Oct 28, 2016, 07:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
You certainly are, you've clearly proven that you believe the Right's sexual assault victims while ignoring the Left's, as prescribed by the Narrative.
Apparently you aren't even reading what I say. If Bill had been caught bragging on video, I'd absolutely be more inclined to believe his accusers. Likewise if they file complaints. I'm not going to give any credit to theories of Hillary killing off anyone who irks her without a single shred of non-partisan evidence.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
All because the MSM will rarely cover Bill's, as a form of damage control (the same reason they run an avg of 35 min /hour smearing Trump and only 3 on Hillary
Thats 3 more than your sources spend smearing Trump.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
despite the fact she's the one who broke a laundry list of laws the last time she held a gov't job).
Yawn.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
Your feminist card is revoked, but don't feel bad, nearly all other 3W feminists lost theirs, too. That's what you get for placing your ideology before individuals.
No feminist could possibly pick Trump over Hillary. And her being a woman isn't even relevant to that fact.


Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
If you want to start a consent thread, knock yourself out, I don't know if I'd have the stomach for that much cognitive dissonance though.

I'm not so sure I want to plumb those depths either.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
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Nov 1, 2016, 06:46 AM
 
Whatever the reason, Trump is clearly rallying. Clinton's firewall seems to hold, but there is a significant (~10%) risk that Trump manages to break it by picking up something like NV and/or NH and force an EC-popular vote split. If election night has Clinton picking up PA, VA and NH while Trump wins FL, OH and NC, it will be a long night.
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The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 10:39 AM
 
Catching up on the news yesterday, I have to say, I’m kind of surprised at the level of bipartisan criticism aimed at Comey. It was confusing enough on timing, but hearing things like they didn’t know what was in the e-mails, they aren’t from the server, they aren’t from Hillary just makes it way more confusing. And THEN you hear that both the DOJ and his own people were waving him off doing the leter and he proceeded anyway. Why would Comey do this??

The simples answer would be that he does want to influence the election, but I find that hard to buy because I don’t think most of the beltway has any desire for Trump. (Certainly not enough to go out of their way to help him).

The second reason, which was my knee jerk reaction, was that he did this to repair his rep. Comey took a beating in GOP circles after not deciding to go after Clinton, and throwing this out there might ingratiate him to those people. If that’s the case, it backfired.

The third reason I came up with s he was trying to cover his ass. Consider if it came out after the election that Comey had known they were investigating Clinton in the final weeks but he had said nothing. I could see some as saying that information should have been made public. So to avoid getting scapegoated after the election he jumps out in front of it beforehand. Only to get gored on the bull of precedent.

Anyone got any other ideas?
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:04 AM
 
The rumor-mill says number two... not to make amends to the GOP, but to the FBI.

Career FBI people are pissed Hillary skated. Once the Weiner dropped in their lap, they said "you burn her or we burn her".

Comey chose the option which appeared less like he's got a mutiny on his hands.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:16 AM
 
Follow up question: How does the Huma/Weiner thing implicate Hillary. I.e., how does she get in legal trouble from what they could find?
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:18 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
The rumor-mill says number two... not to make amends to the GOP, but to the FBI.

Career FBI people are pissed Hillary skated. Once the Weiner dropped in their lap, they said "you burn her or we burn her".

Comey chose the option which appeared less like he's got a mutiny on his hands.
I realize the politics is she can't retaliate, but Comey is on thin ****ing ice from here on out, right? The only reason he has the job was Obamas obsession with appearing bipartisan. He was ****ed either way.
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:18 AM
 
Despite protestations, this not the first time something like this has happened.


The FBI and DOJ pulled the same thing on Judge Pirro when she was running for NY AG against Cuomo in 2006.
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The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Despite protestations, this not the first time something like this has happened.


The FBI and DOJ pulled the same thing on Judge Pirro when she was running for NY AG against Cuomo in 2006.
Just for you, chongo
Jeanine Pirro defends Clinton on FBI review announcement - POLITICO
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:26 AM
 
Then there’s this: FBI's Comey opposed naming Russians, citing election timing: Source

This makes even less sense. Announcing Russia is meddling in the election is A. Not revelatory and B. Does not implicate the Trump campaign directly. I don’t see anything controversial about this. As it were, the timing at about a month out would have been right on the edge of what I consider the line where you don’t want to ‘interfere', but still leagues better than what he eventually pulled 11 days out.
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Defend Clinton, not really.
Why do you think I posted the bit about Judge Pirro. I watch her show. She's still pissed off it was pulled on her.
"In the home stretch of a statewide campaign, the Justice Department and the FBI violated their own policy against making public statements that could affect an election, and announced to the press they were opening an investigation of me," she said.

"It was mean-spirited and nothing came of it, except the adverse publicity cost me at the polls."
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The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
Why do you think I posted the bit about Judge Pirro. I watch her show. She's still pissed off it was pulled on her. She wants Trump to win and said so.
So what's your point here? It's ok because it happened before? She still has enough perspective to see what happened is wrong.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 12:06 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Follow up question: How does the Huma/Weiner thing implicate Hillary. I.e., how does she get in legal trouble from what they could find?
Huma quotes a deleted Hillary email that has something incriminating. Then Hillary gets slapped not just for the content but also for deleting the evidence.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 12:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I realize the politics is she can't retaliate, but Comey is on thin ****ing ice from here on out, right? The only reason he has the job was Obamas obsession with appearing bipartisan. He was ****ed either way.
I'd say he's being retaliated against... did you see Reid open up his can of whup-ass?
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 12:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
So what's your point here? It's ok because it happened before? She still has enough perspective to see what happened is wrong.
No, don't cry crocodile tears. Don't say "it's unprecedented" when it's not. It happened to Judge Pirro, and to GHW Bush. (Via Cap Wienberger)
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The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 12:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Chongo View Post
No, don't cry crocodile tears. Don't say "it's unprecedented" when it's not. It happened to Judge Pirro, and to GHW Bush. (Via Cap Wienberger)
Ah, straw man. Back to ignore with thee
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 01:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Ah, straw man. Back to ignore with thee
Strawman my behind. The Democrats were cheering when it was announced the Friday before the 1992 election that Cap Weinberger, and by extension GHWB, was going to be investigated/indicted over Iran-Contra.

I take it as a badge of honor if someone has me on ignore. It means i'm doing my job.
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subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:03 PM
 
If I'm reading this right, the FBI decided today was a good day to start releasing files on the Clinton Foundation investigation.

That's ****ing stone cold.
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:07 PM
 
45/47
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:09 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
If I'm reading this right, the FBI decided today was a good day to start releasing files on the Clinton Foundation investigation.

That's ****ing stone cold.
I've seen it argued this was a perfectly timed FOIA request.
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
If I'm reading this right, the FBI decided today was a good day to start releasing files on the Clinton Foundation investigation.

That's ****ing stone cold.
Now now, you know there is no Clinton Foundation investigation.......
45/47
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I've seen it argued this was a perfectly timed FOIA request.
Apparently a Fred Trump FOIA was dropped on the 30th. But yeah this is adding fuel to the fire. Depends on when the request was made, to me.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 03:37 PM
 
Haha, Comey was the one who conducted the investigation. Small world.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 04:00 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Haha, Comey was the one who conducted the investigation. Small world.
I recall him having tried to bag the Clintons before being touted as a virtue in terms of investigating the emails.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 1, 2016, 04:07 PM
 
Bad optics:

The Twitter account which tweeted it was inactive for over a year, and then started dumping stuff over the weekend.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 04:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Bad optics:

The Twitter account which tweeted it was inactive for over a year, and then started dumping stuff over the weekend.
It looks worse because of Friday.

But like my Comey option 3, tweeting all that on November 9th is also a bad look.
     
Chongo
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Nov 1, 2016, 10:57 PM
 
FBI/intelligence services are feeding Assnage?


Originally Posted by subego View Post
Bad optics:

The Twitter account which tweeted it was inactive for over a year, and then started dumping stuff over the weekend.
Wa
WaPo claims FBI spooks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...bb4_story.html
The surprise tweet from a little-used FBI account came about 1 p.m. Tuesday, announcing that the agency had published on its website 129 pages of internal documents related to a years-old investigation into former president Bill Clinton’s pardon of a fugitive Democratic donor.
( Last edited by Chongo; Nov 1, 2016 at 11:33 PM. )
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The Final Dakar
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Nov 1, 2016, 11:04 PM
 
On a more positive note, Scott Walker endorsed Hillary
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 2, 2016, 12:10 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
What the **** is wrong with Senator Mark Kirk? Does losing make you into that much of an insensitive asshole?
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 2, 2016, 04:38 PM
 
I think the Clinton campaign found its vector to attack Comey
https://www.buzzfeed.com/davidmack/h...to-james-comey
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 2, 2016, 06:24 PM
 
Planned press conference from rape victim.

Canceled on account of death threats.

This election just doesn't give up.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 2, 2016, 07:22 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Planned press conference from rape victim.

Canceled on account of death threats.

This election just doesn't give up.
I didn't even see this yet. Jesus. Add that to the pile with the Church that was just defaced.
     
Chongo
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Nov 2, 2016, 11:17 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I didn't even see this yet. Jesus. Add that to the pile with the Church that was just defaced.
I think there's more to worry about than some Soros paid thugs handiwork.
FBI Sources Tell Fox News An "Indictment Is Likely" In Clinton Foundation Case | Video | RealClearPolitics
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subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 01:03 AM
 
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 3, 2016, 09:29 AM
 
This doesn't help nate's rep. He threw some shade at Wang on Twitter too
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 3, 2016, 09:33 AM
 
I might add, statistically what are the chances of two championship series going 3-1 AND having the leading team lose all in the same year? Luckily Hillary was never up 3-1
     
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Nov 3, 2016, 09:37 AM
 

This was a really dumb article for Silver's staff to post.

In baseball, any team can beat any other team on any day. Predicting individual games is pointless. I followed Silver's baseball models really closely all season, and they proved to be pretty accurate on the aggregate for the entire regular season, but this is because you really need a large sample to predict anything in baseball. As far as playoffs go, his models are pretty much pointless, and they shifted around radically all throughout the playoffs.

It is pointless to relate playoff predictions to voting results.
     
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Nov 3, 2016, 10:14 AM
 
FL and NC are now the lightest shade of pink, and NV is... gray, I guess (it is completely even in the 538 prediction), which puts Clinton at 271 (without NV). The next state is NH, which remains 3.2 percent up for Clinton, but 271 is sure to make Trump dispute the result.
The new Mac Pro has up to 30 MB of cache inside the processor itself. That's more than the HD in my first Mac. Somehow I'm still running out of space.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 11:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
This was a really dumb article for Silver's staff to post.

In baseball, any team can beat any other team on any day. Predicting individual games is pointless. I followed Silver's baseball models really closely all season, and they proved to be pretty accurate on the aggregate for the entire regular season, but this is because you really need a large sample to predict anything in baseball. As far as playoffs go, his models are pretty much pointless, and they shifted around radically all throughout the playoffs.

It is pointless to relate playoff predictions to voting results.
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 3, 2016, 12:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
If I'm reading this right, the FBI decided today was a good day to start releasing files on the Clinton Foundation investigation.

That's ****ing stone cold.
The FBI has now launched an investigation into its own Twitter account. This ****ing election, man
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 12:26 PM
 
#PleadsTheFifth
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 3, 2016, 12:30 PM
 
Seriously, use the Upshot, people

I don't want to get into unskewing his model but he's clearly the outlier here. He's either gonna gain or lose a lot of cred come Tuesday.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 12:43 PM
 
I've been paywalled at this point.

JuRY suggested a drinking game where you listen to the 538 podcast when Nate is on, and chug every time he takes a passive-aggressive shot at some other poll aggregator.
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 12:50 PM
 
Does the Upshot have her in free-fall, relatively speaking?
     
The Final Dakar
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Nov 3, 2016, 01:12 PM
 
Upshots chances are going down.

But I was talking more about the fact that it has a table of all the odds by all the sites with models/predictors
     
subego  (op)
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Nov 3, 2016, 01:28 PM
 
I used porn mode.

Interesting. He's definitely the outlier, as you say.

My instincts tell me that's closer to reality than the others, but I don't have anything to base it on at this point other than instinct.
     
 
 
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