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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning?

View Poll Results: Which do you have? (Choose only ONE. Includes stand-alones and game consoles.)
Poll Options:
HD DVD 34 votes (17.09%)
Blu-ray 87 votes (43.72%)
Both 14 votes (7.04%)
Neither 70 votes (35.18%)
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 199. You may not vote on this poll
Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning? (Page 38)
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Person Man
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Jul 16, 2007, 09:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by Veltliner View Post
The main thing is to get the movie well on disc, and the subtitles.
Looking over your posts, it sounds like you're talking about downloading ripped subtitles. Eug's not talking about the machine downloading ripped subtitles like those found online currently. He's talking about "official" subtitles that can be downloaded.

And you're also implying that making subtitles available for download after the disc is pressed is a sign of sloppiness or that the disc was rushed. That wouldn't be the case unless the disc didn't already have the subtitles that are normally there for that region.

For example, it would be seen as a problem if a disc bought in North America made you download the French or Spanish subtitles.

It gets more useful when you want subtitles OTHER than what has traditionally been made available. One issue that hits close to home for me is Greek subtitles. You will RARELY find Region 1 DVDs with Greek subtitles on them. That's because the vast majority of people in Region 1 don't care about Greek subtitles. But my father does. That's part of the reason ripping subtitles has become popular, despite the differences in releases in different parts of the world.

Why include 50 different subtitle tracks on a disc, when you can just leave the main ones for a given region and make the others available for download (as they become available)?

Would the average American be happy the studio was "taking their time to do the job right" if they knew the disc would be ready to release 2 months earlier if the studios didn't have to wait for the Swahili and Arabic translation houses?

Mac OS X doesn't include Turkish, Greek, or Arabic localizations in the box. But Apple's representatives in those countries have made those languages available for download. (OK, in Greece you can only get the Greek localization if you pay €50-200 more for a Mac with the Greek Mac OS X, and even then the only things translated are Finder, Control Panels, Address Book, and AppleWorks. Whoopee!) Does that make Mac OS X "rushed?"
     
icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 09:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by Person Man View Post
Why include 50 different subtitle tracks on a disc, when you can just leave the main ones for a given region and make the others available for download (as they become available)?
If the feature works as you seem to think it will, it would be nice. Since HD-DVD is region free, they could theoretically use the same disc for all regions and just have people download the applicable subtitles if they speak one of the less common languages. But I'm not convinced that the studios will make the effort to do this kind of thing.

Mac OS X doesn't include Turkish, Greek, or Arabic localizations in the box. But Apple's representatives in those countries have made those languages available for download. Does that make Mac OS X "rushed?"
Right, because operating systems and movie subtitles are completely the same...
     
mitchell_pgh
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Jul 16, 2007, 10:07 AM
 
IMHO, this format war will not be won by features most consumers don't understand. Downloadable language tracks, more lax DRM, slightly better compression, required high quality standards, etc.

Most consumers that have, or are about to buy, a HD TV don't even know why they need HD-DVD or Blu-ray until it is explained to them. From there, they will probably pick the one a friend or sales person recommends.

Few consumers even watch the bonus tracks.
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 10:49 AM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
I like how they take a difference of a few thousand standalone players (as mentioned a few weeks back, standalone HD player sales for Europe as of March totaled 10,000 units for both formats combined) and make it sound like a huge victory. When 800,000 PS3s were sold in Europe up to the same point in time, it's just a tad difficult to discount its effect.
Actually that was the head of a neutral studio recognizing what many of us have said from the beginning - once games are finally released for the PS3 its effect on the "war" will be marginalized, and long term sales will come from standalone players.

And since the PS3 is no longer the cheapest Blu-Ray player, the studios may be wondering why other players aren't selling...

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icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 10:57 AM
 
I was referring to the press release from the HD-DVD people that claimed "74% market share in Europe."
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 16, 2007, 11:50 AM
 
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 12:53 PM
 
So, in other words, there's absolutely no change to the story? It's still a $100 HD-DVD player for attendees...

I dunno why anyone made a big deal out of this in the first place, even if Toshiba was giving the deal. Trade show sales happen *all* the time.

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icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 12:56 PM
 
It's a total non-story, but bloggers latch on to anything these days.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 16, 2007, 01:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
So, in other words, there's absolutely no change to the story? It's still a $100 HD-DVD player for attendees...

I dunno why anyone made a big deal out of this in the first place, even if Toshiba was giving the deal. Trade show sales happen *all* the time.
Because HD-DVD fans got their panties in a bunch thinking it was a sign of things to come for everyone.

that last link added to the story that it isn't even being run by Toshiba.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 16, 2007, 01:50 PM
 
     
Kerrigan
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Jul 16, 2007, 02:01 PM
 
According to that article:

Including [PS3s and computers] puts Blu-ray in the lead instead, with almost 95% of hardware sales.

That's a huuuge difference from what that HDDVD group was saying.
     
icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 02:05 PM
 
I know, it's almost beyond belief. I totally agree with the people who say that computer drives or PS3s aren't the equivalent of standalones because not all people who buy them will also buy movies, but come on!
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 03:06 PM
 
Blu-Ray is in the lead solely due to the PS3, and the 95% is misleading (just like the HD-DVD's 74% is currently misleading). In reality the 95% with the PS3 only translates to a 60-40 margin in disc sales, so the value of the PS3 isn't nearly what the Blu-Ray group was hoping for. It's keeping them in the game (and hell, it's keeping them ahead of the game), but it's not something that can sustain them long-term.

Standalone players are what drives the market. People buy those for the sole purpose of watching movies. The company that leads the pack in standalone drives over the next year or two will be the company that does the best in this "war." Right now, that's HD-DVD. Will it continue to be? Only time will tell. But if standalone sales stay as lopsided as they are as sales move beyond the hardcore market, expect BD exclusive studios to start releasing HD-DVDs.

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goMac
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:15 PM
 
This is why I didn't post the 74% article when I saw it. Another thing to keep in mind is the HD disc market is incredibly small in Europe. Considering this, I don't know if the PS3 only putting Sony at 95% is a very good thing.
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icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:18 PM
 
Give me a break. Only you could suggest that selling "only" 95% of HD hardware isn't good enough.
     
Dakarʒ
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:22 PM
 
You know you're biased when...
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by goMac View Post
Considering this, I don't know if the PS3 only putting Sony at 95% is a very good thing.
Only you can see 95% share as a bad thing
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
Give me a break. Only you could suggest that selling "only" 95% of HD hardware isn't good enough.
Like I posted above, it isn't as it's misleading. They don't have 95% of HD disc sales, nor do they have 95% of current gen video game sales. They have a very large portion of drives that are seriously under-utilized. If they could convert those numbers into BD sales then they'd be sitting pretty. But they're not.

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icruise
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:44 PM
 
I understand what you're saying, but all of the variations on the "HD-DVD is losing but it should be losing by more" argument aren't very compelling.
     
goMac
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:47 PM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
Only you can see 95% share as a bad thing
Oh c'mon. Standalone sales in Europe have been ridiculously small, with some sales of standalones in some countries in the dozens. Why do you think no one wants to give actual sales numbers?

The announcement doesn't exactly put the PS3 in Europe in that great of light.
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macintologist
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Jul 16, 2007, 04:58 PM
 
So which format is technically superior?

Which format is better for people like me who would want to rip their own discs to copy to their iPod?
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 05:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
I understand what you're saying, but all of the variations on the "HD-DVD is losing but it should be losing by more" argument aren't very compelling.
Should be losing by more right now, and is currently situated to do better in the long run.

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jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 05:16 PM
 
Originally Posted by macintologist View Post
So which format is technically superior?
They're both on par in video and audio, but BD has a capacity advantage.

Originally Posted by macintologist View Post
Which format is better for people like me who would want to rip their own discs to copy to their iPod?
DVD. After that, HD-DVD. Blu-Ray will be a pain for this if BD+ takes off.

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Jul 16, 2007, 06:18 PM
 
Well, say what you will, but there is the distinct possibility that the PS3 has prefigured the outcome of the format war in Europe. And with this 95% share, this is the more logical conclusion to draw from the figures than concluding that Sony is in a weak position.
     
jokell82
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Jul 16, 2007, 08:41 PM
 
Originally Posted by Kerrigan View Post
Well, say what you will, but there is the distinct possibility that the PS3 has prefigured the outcome of the format war in Europe. And with this 95% share, this is the more logical conclusion to draw from the figures than concluding that Sony is in a weak position.
Show me where the percentage of disc sales is as wide a gap as their supposed 95% market share and I'd agree with you. But it aint there. The PS3 is not going to be the deciding factor people predicted it would.

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analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 16, 2007, 11:45 PM
 
     
Kerrigan
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Jul 17, 2007, 01:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Show me where the percentage of disc sales is as wide a gap as their supposed 95% market share and I'd agree with you. But it aint there. The PS3 is not going to be the deciding factor people predicted it would.
Well, if GoMac is to be believed (and I think he is right), then the total amount of HD format discs being sold in Europe is quite small -in the dozens in some countries- then when sales of such discs pick up, is it not more logical to think that the format which works with 95% of players is more likely to catch on than that which works with a mere 5%?

You could, of course, argue that if discs sales are so low, then not many people are not using PS3s as players.

Either way though, this is a discussion of the future, and no one knows what will happen. All we know is that, contrary to certain claims, BR has 95% of the European HD player market- you can't dispute that.
     
jokell82
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Jul 17, 2007, 09:03 AM
 
Originally Posted by Kerrigan View Post
Well, if GoMac is to be believed (and I think he is right), then the total amount of HD format discs being sold in Europe is quite small -in the dozens in some countries- then when sales of such discs pick up, is it not more logical to think that the format which works with 95% of players is more likely to catch on than that which works with a mere 5%?

You could, of course, argue that if discs sales are so low, then not many people are not using PS3s as players.

Either way though, this is a discussion of the future, and no one knows what will happen. All we know is that, contrary to certain claims, BR has 95% of the European HD player market- you can't dispute that.
No, it's not logical to think that, because the 95% number reflects many drives that will never be used for movies. How many people watch movies on their laptops? Other than on a plane, not too many. And besides, those screens are so tiny that having HD content doesn't really matter - and the audio is just a joke. What advantage would an HD movie have for laptop users, other than being more expensive? I suspect you can throw out 99.9% of laptop drives in the stats as they wont matter in the slightest (and I suspect they're maybe .5% of the 95% given).

The vast majority of that 95% is from the PS3, which was supposed to end this format war already. Problem is, it didn't. People are not using PS3s as BD players, at least not in any kind of numbers that reflect the amount of units that have shipped.

A 95% market share with only a small advantage in disc sales means that people that buy standalone players buy more movies. Period. This is what the Warner exec recognized, and it will be a trend that will continue to be seen by the industry. A 75% advantage of standalone players equates to a better opportunity to sell more discs. The BD sales to PS3 owners will taper off dramatically as games are released.

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mitchell_pgh
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Jul 17, 2007, 12:03 PM
 
IMHO, I don't agree with the "PS3 people aren't buying movies" comments. Sure, people didn't buy the PS2 as a DVD player, but that was because 1. DVDs were already commonplace when the PS2 was released. and 2. The DVD player in the PS2 was junk.

The PS3 is a serious movie machine. You would, IMHO, be a fool if you didn't at least consider the PS3 as your primary movie player if you are on the budget end of the spectrum. It would be very tempting to buy a PS3 along with the BT remote and use it not only as a HD movie player, but as a media box for photos, music, etc. Heck, even if you weren't a gamer at all, it's still a good value.
     
Dakarʒ
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Jul 17, 2007, 12:05 PM
 
I wouldn't go that far. The PS2 was the first DVD player for a lot of college aged kids.
     
macintologist
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Jul 17, 2007, 12:44 PM
 
Here in college anyone who plays DVD on a TV either does it with a PS2, or the TV already has a built-in dvd player. I've never seen an external dvd player.
     
mitchell_pgh
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Jul 17, 2007, 01:13 PM
 
I still believe my point is valid. The PS2 DVD player is a sub par DVD player. The PS3 Blu-ray player is arguably one of the better Blu-ray players.

Also, by Oct. 2000, I had already owned two DVD players, and I was in college.
     
Dakarʒ
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Jul 17, 2007, 01:17 PM
 
I never argued with sub-par. But it was the first DVD player me and many of my friends had.
     
goMac
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Jul 17, 2007, 01:49 PM
 
My first DVD player was the one I installed in my old Powermac G3 B/W. I've never owned a standalone DVD player.

I only saw a PS2 being used as a DVD player once during college. I think my neighbor in the dorm used a PS2 as one, but I never saw one being used as a DVD player by anyone else.
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Jul 17, 2007, 04:03 PM
 
just to add some info, albeit not about High-Definition players sold but HD titles announced here in Spain (Europe obviously). It reads: format wars - titles announced in Spain.



I was not able to find any trusted info about which one is selling more, I don't care that much really, it is like politics imho
     
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Jul 17, 2007, 04:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
A 95% market share with only a small advantage in disc sales means that people that buy standalone players buy more movies. Period.
No it doesn't. It could mean several things, we simply don't have the numbers in front of us to make wild presumptions and treat them as fact.

It could mean, as I myself suggested (and you conveniently overlooked), that PS3 owners are not buying many movies. It could also mean that HD movies are not widely available for purchase in Europe, and that those with PS3s who would like to buy BR movies simply don't see them for sale on shelves yet.

Again, nobody knows what will happen in the future. But to sit around and pretend 95% market share is objectively a bad thing is an insult to your intelligence.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 17, 2007, 04:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by mitchell_pgh View Post
IMHO, I don't agree with the "PS3 people aren't buying movies" comments.

We should take a poll then as I know most PS3 owners here (including me) said they did buy it just for the BR.
     
Dakarʒ
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Jul 17, 2007, 04:56 PM
 
How many PS3 owners do we have here? Off the top of my head I can only remember you, starman, and icruise.
     
icruise
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Jul 17, 2007, 05:01 PM
 
As I have pointed out a number of times, having a huge installed base is a pretty big deal, because even if a particular PS3 owner hasn't bought any movies yet (and let's be honest, the current library for either format isn't exactly stellar), they can buy a movie at any time with no additional capital outlay required. I don't see how you can discount this.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 17, 2007, 05:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dakarʒ View Post
How many PS3 owners do we have here? Off the top of my head I can only remember you, starman, and icruise.
Well I am pretty sure that is why starman got his so currently out of 3 PS3's here 2 were mostly for BR.

Oh and for those of you who said BR being exclusive at Blockbuster even though "Nobody rents movies at stores anymore"

"The report, citing Adams Media Research, also notes that multi-line mass merchants continue their dominance of the DVD sales market, with a 43% market share, while consumer electronics retailers have 16% of the market and online retailers have 12.5%. In the rental market, publicly traded video rental chains account for 43% of the market, other video stores have 39%, and online rental services now have a market share of 16%."

Digital Home - Annual DVD Sales and Rentals in U.S. top $23 Billion
     
icruise
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Jul 17, 2007, 05:08 PM
 
I got my PS3 for (future) games and the Blu-ray was a bonus.
     
analogue SPRINKLES
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Jul 17, 2007, 07:42 PM
 
PS3 is selling like mad at Amazon since the price drop:

PlayStation 3 sells out at Amazon, nothing until next week - PS3 Fanboy

surly a few of those people might want a BR movie or two.
     
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Jul 17, 2007, 08:18 PM
 
And for all the hooting and howling over the fifth element on BR:

Blu-ray Review: The Fifth Element (Remastered) | High-Def Digest
     
exca1ibur
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Jul 17, 2007, 09:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
I got my PS3 for (future) games and the Blu-ray was a bonus.
Same reason I got mine as well.
     
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Jul 18, 2007, 08:21 AM
 
Looks like HD is up while BD is looking down.

Originally Posted by http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/07-17-2007/0004627245&EDATE=
At the Entertainment Merchants Association (EMA) Home Media Expo 2007, the North American HD DVD Promotional Group today announced that overall HD DVD hardware sales were up 37 percent from Q1 to Q2 2007, while software sales experienced a 20 percent increase in growth. The data is based on NPD reports, Nielsen Netratings reports and point of sale data from the studios. During the same time-frame, overall Blu-ray hardware sales saw a 27 percent decline from Q1 to Q2, and Blu-ray software sales were down 5 percent.

All glory to the hypnotoad.
     
icruise
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Jul 18, 2007, 09:30 AM
 
Wow, things look a lot more impressive when you use percentages and not real numbers
     
goMac
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Jul 18, 2007, 09:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Looks like HD is up while BD is looking down.
IMO they're going to keep doing this. Unless Universal goes neutral or a Bluray exclusive studio goes neutral (Disney maybe), this is the way things will stay. There's not going to be a death blow.

I'm guessing Apple is going to include combo drives.
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Jul 18, 2007, 11:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by jokell82 View Post
Looks like HD is up while BD is looking down.
Lemmie guess. They only looked at stand alone BR players and ignored every single PS3. Since PS3's are selling better now and getting cheaper you would be stupid to buy a stand alone BR player.
     
goMac
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Jul 18, 2007, 11:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES View Post
Lemmie guess. They only looked at stand alone BR players and ignored every single PS3. Since PS3's are selling better now and getting cheaper you would be stupid to buy a stand alone BR player.
I don't think the numbers were all that heavily based on what's been happening since last week.
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Jul 18, 2007, 11:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by goMac View Post
I don't think the numbers were all that heavily based on what's been happening since last week.
So you're saying they DO include PS3 sales? If not the number are just more FUD from the HD camp.
     
 
 
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