[besson3c]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Neither.

I'm predicting that there are going to be major polling firms this time out who are going to be very embarrassed. Next election, they aren't going to have much credibility.

Okay, but I don't think anybody here would disagree with this if you had simply stated it like this. There are always pollsters that are way off, this is how it works, polling is an inexact science. I figured that this was obvious enough that it didn't have to be stated, particularly since there has already been discussion about the importance of averages or systems like Pollster.com's that eliminates outlier polls that are too far outside of trend lines. I still feel like there is a disconnect here...

[kobi]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Neither.

I'm predicting that there are going to be major polling firms this time out who are going to be very embarrassed. Next election, they aren't going to have much credibility.

Yeah it looks like Investors Business Daily is going to be one of those polls with no credibility and be very embarrassed.



As Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com points out, they have the 18-24 age range voting for McCain 74% to 22% for Obama. That's a hell of a sample.

Stupendousman, next time read the poll that your quoting from to make sure you don't have egg on your face or that you get embarrassed when your called out on the poll.

Any your Political Science degree is from what University?

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by kobi 

Yeah it looks like Investors Business Daily is going to be one of those polls with no credibility and be very embarrassed.

Possibly. It's likely going to be polls at one end of the spectrum or the other. Given the fact that IBD has been getting polls right, and polls like the NYT/CBS polls (which are at the other end of the spectrum) in the past have gotten them spectacularly wrong, I'm not sure I'd bet on your assumption.

Any your Political Science degree is from what University?

Any your any degree is from any University? (sic)

Actually, I have a minor in PolySci from a major university.

[stupendousman]

Also, I thought that Conventional Wisdom™ said that early voting far and away favored Democrats?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111430/Ea...-Reach-30.aspx

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking data indicate that about 11% of registered voters who plan to vote have already voted as of Wednesday night, with another 19% saying they plan to vote before Election Day. Roughly equal percentages of Barack Obama supporters and John McCain supporters have taken advantage of the early voting opportunity -- so far.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Possibly. It's likely going to be polls at one end of the spectrum or the other.

McCain tied with Obama appears to be "one end of the spectrum".

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

McCain tied with Obama appears to be "one end of the spectrum".

Yes, it does appear to be. The other end is Obama up 14 points.

Either one or both polls are likely going to be embarrassed come Nov. 4 and their methods will lack credibility the next election. The same goes for all the other polls which end up sharing the wrong end of the spectrum. There's simply too wide of a gulf between the top and bottom for it to be anything other than faulty polling or purposed bias. Neither are good for a polling firm's reputation.