[besson3c]

Still think Trump won the debate, BadKosh and Chongo?

Will the other Trump scandals and negative news stories have an impact on the horse race polls?

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

That's certainly a better pokerface than Trump's "Where did you find this? Where did you find this?" when Hillary dropped the Machado bomb on him.

Oh, no question.

The crack in Clinton's composure is hairline, but his entire soul leaks out of it onto your lap.

Trump just got mad, which is a relative yawner with a normal person, let alone someone who consistently shows an inability to control anger.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Still think Trump won the debate, BadKosh and Chongo?

Will the other Trump scandals and negative news stories have an impact on the horse race polls?

I'd be more worried about Tuesday

Wikileaks Highly Anticipated Tuesday Announcement'

If it's scandals you want.....
"a SCANDAL a day" Home

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by subego 

The crack in Clinton's composure is hairline,

The looks she gave him could have killed, especially early on. I'm not sure I've ever seen that much naked hate in person, much less during a televised event. She likely ground her dentures into powder. That's hardly a show of control.

[subego]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

The looks she gave him could have killed, especially early on. I'm not sure I've ever seen that much naked hate in person, much less during a televised event. She likely ground her dentures into powder. That's hardly a show of control.

I'm confused... I'm talking about Bill hearing "cigar".

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

I'd be more worried about Tuesday

Wikileaks Highly Anticipated Tuesday Announcement'

If it's scandals you want.....
"a SCANDAL a day" Home

You are deflecting the question. I'm curious to know how objective you are. Did the first debate help Clinton in the horse race polls? I.e. did she "win" the debate?

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

You are deflecting the question. I'm curious to know how objective you are. Did the first debate help Clinton in the horse race polls? I.e. did she "win" the debate?

No. She did succeed in getting Trump to go after the shiny thing and take the focus off her corruption.

[subego]

I'm not sure what that bump she's getting could be from other than the debate.

[The Final Shortcut]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

I'd be more worried about Tuesday

Wikileaks Highly Anticipated Tuesday Announcement'

If it's scandals you want.....
"a SCANDAL a day" Home

And are you pleased with the outcome of this one?

[The Final Dakar]

Alex Jones certainly wasn't.

[Chongo]

Assange-rolled.
He did say there will be releases starting this week, if Hillary isn't successful in having him drone-striked.

[The Final Dakar]

https://gop.com/who-won-the-vice-presidential-debate/
https://gop.com/10-things-voters-are...ut-the-debate/
https://gop.com/governor-mike-pences...om-the-debate/
https://gop.com/its-clear-who-lost-t...llary-clinton/

[The Final Dakar]

I never got around to posting this when it came out a while ago.
lincolnleaders

Trump supporters shared many of those same concerns, with his supporters predicting a:

22 percent chance that Trump would authorize the use of a nuclear weapon;
33 percent chance the U.S. government would default on its debt;
32 percent chance Trump would use the powers of his office against a political opponent;
48 percent chance Trump would create a database to track all Muslims in the U.S.;
29 percent chance Trump would order the military to target the families of terrorists;
32 percent chance Trump would authorize internment camps for illegal immigrants; and
36 percent chance there would be race riots in major U.S. cities.

How are these (the bolded) okay?!

[The Final Dakar]

Jesus, that VP debate was brutal. Kaine came off as way to jittery to start and Pence was smoooooth, but over the course of the 90 min Pence got so buried under Trump's bullshit it broke his back. No clear winner to me, but I can't wait to see fact-checking sites hit it because Pence pretty much denied everything. Pants on fire? Entire body engulfed in flames, I expect.

Also, Kaine has pretty damn good recall.

[Chongo]

Kaine looked like he drank too much Monster Energy.

[The Final Dakar]

Also subego this debate is example 1a for why moderators should fact check. Pence just denied common-knowledge quotes, let alone easily verifiable facts.

[subego]

Didn't see it. I was napping.

I still say...

1) If there was a falsehood uttered by Pence which needs to be addressed, that's Kaine's job. The moderator assists by making sure Kaine has the opportunity to do so. The moderator is not there to debate.

2) Knowing the "truth" is several orders of magnitude harder than it looks. Furthermore, when it comes to self-assessing their ability to avoid the pitfalls of cognitive bias, most journalists are delusional.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

Kaine looked like he drank too much Monster Energy.

Really too much Monster Energy.

[BadKosh]

A characterless buffoon, with no manners, being rude and offensive. Is this the best the Democrats can do? This Leo Gorcey knock-off was Virginias buffoon and his record is pretty lame.

[besson3c]

Hey BadKosh, Mr. Objective, it looks like Iowa has just flipped to Clinton in the Nate Silver Now-cast, giving her an 81.4% of victory. I'm not gloating, these horserace polls can easily change, but do you think Clinton actually won the last debate in the eyes of the people and this has factored into this bounce? If not, what has led to the bounce? I'm assuming you at least acknowledge the bounce?

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

Didn't see it. I was napping.

I still say...

1) If there was a falsehood uttered by Pence which needs to be addressed, that's Kaine's job. The moderator assists by making sure Kaine has the opportunity to do so. The moderator is not there to debate.

2) Knowing the "truth" is several orders of magnitude harder than it looks. Furthermore, when it comes to self-assessing their ability to avoid the pitfalls of cognitive bias, most journalists are delusional.

Personally I think a stance that whoever lies better should be rewarded is absurd.

But to the meat of my point, I have some next level shit here: denying quotes. This is simple for the moderator to address: just read the quote.

[BadKosh]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Hey BadKosh, Mr. Objective, it looks like Iowa has just flipped to Clinton in the Nate Silver Now-cast, giving her an 81.4% of victory. I'm not gloating, these horserace polls can easily change, but do you think Clinton actually won the last debate in the eyes of the people and this has factored into this bounce? If not, what has led to the bounce? I'm assuming you at least acknowledge the bounce?

TWO MORE debates to go. Trump will use a different tack this time, since he seems to adapt. Putting Hillary in the spotlight does have risks. Then, there is WikiLeaks........

[The Final Dakar]

The Atlantic endorsed Hillary. They only did this two times before: 1860 on the issue of slavery, and 1964 on the issue of nuclear responsibility. Heh.

[Snow-i]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

The Atlantic endorsed Hillary. They only did this two times before: 1860 on the issue of slavery, and 1964 on the issue of nuclear responsibility. Heh.

Any "newspaper" that endorses a candidate is no newspaper at all - it's a blog.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

TWO MORE debates to go. Trump will use a different tack this time, since he seems to adapt. Putting Hillary in the spotlight does have risks. Then, there is WikiLeaks........

So, I guess she did win, and you were therefore not objective in your initial analysis?

[The Final Dakar]

Hannity has officially lost his mind. Accused Megyn Kelly of supporting Hillary Clinton likely because she called Trump out for pretty much avoiding the press.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by Snow-i 

Any "newspaper" that endorses a candidate is no newspaper at all - it's a blog.

Yep. Agreed, 100%.

[P]

Note that Clinton's lead is now over 5% in the tipping point state (currently CO), so there would have to be a polling error of at least 5% for Trump to be even right now. There is a month left, but he clearly has some catching up to do.

I still want to know what Trump's target EC map looks like.

[Paco500]

Originally Posted by Snow-i 

Any "newspaper" that endorses a candidate is no newspaper at all - it's a blog.

This is an interesting stance to take. Newspapers have had editorial (opinion) pages and have been endorsing candidates for hundreds of years. Major, respected newspapers.

I completely disagree that a 'newspaper' that takes an editorial position is no longer a newspaper, but I'd be curious as to what you think has changed and could be convinced that it is no longer appropriate. I just curious why you think this should be the case?

[BadKosh]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

So, I guess she did win, and you were therefore not objective in your initial analysis?

I did NOT SEE the debate. I get up at 4AM, so 9PM is like midnight. She did not win anything. Her 'performance' looked like carefully rehearsed audio bites that did not exactly match what Trump would say. Add in teh fact she was using an earpiece and had coaches helping her along with the typically rude asshole 'moderator' so It is more that she was cheating.

[Chongo]

Time for a re-post with a relevant article.


CNN's Jake Tapper: Press treating Chelsea Clinton with 'kid gloves' | Washington Examiner

CNN anchor Jake Tapper acknowledged Wednesday that there's a big discrepancy in the way the press covers Donald Trump's adult children compared to how they treat Hillary Clinton's only daughter, Chelsea.

It's an idea that's been said before, but Tapper drew new attention to it on Wednesday.

"It's true," Tapper said on Twitter in response to a colleague who said that Chelsea is never "grilled" the way Trump's adult children have been.

Tapper noted that Chelsea doesn't do as many media interviews as the Trump children, but said "there's no reason to treat one adult child of a nominee with kid gloves while others get tough questions."

Stay abreast of the latest developments from nation's capital and beyond with curated News Alerts from the Washington Examiner news desk and delivered to your inbox.


Media critic Jack Shafer made a similar point about Clinton's treatment by the press in February.

"The press covers her, of course, attempting to ask her substantive questions, but mostly she exists to grace the covers of magazines — Fast Company and Elle most recently — and be treated to lighter-than-air puff pieces," he wrote.


Trump's children, by contrast, are often asked in their own interviews to answer for their father's controversial remarks and to any criticism his campaign may be facing that day.

In early September, Trump's daughter Ivanka was asked to answer charges that her father is a sexist, but some have noted that Chelsea Clinton is not being asked about her father's attitudes toward women.

Also in September, Donald Trump Jr. was asked to answer for his father's tax history, but Chelsea has escaped similar questions.

Before you reply "Bill is not runing"...
Hillary Clinton says she'll put Bill 'in charge' of fixing economy - May. 16, 2016

[P]

When did this become the general politics thread? I thought we had a thread about polling and where we think the entire thing is going. There are enough threads for mudslinging.

[subego]

The "punditry" in the title has given this thread some wiggle.

[subego]

But that doesn't mean we can't have a poll dance!



This is apparently what happens after Trump wins a debate.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by P 

When did this become the general politics thread? I thought we had a thread about polling and where we think the entire thing is going. There are enough threads for mudslinging.

Originally Posted by subego 

The "punditry" in the title has given this thread some wiggle.

Yeah I've given it latitude as a general election news thread but I've been thinking we need a generic political news thread for stories unlikely to generate a page worth of comments.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

But that doesn't mean we can't have a poll dance!



This is apparently what happens after Trump wins a debate.

I'm sick of this shit. What was that, a 20% swing in a week?

[subego]

Yup. Close to 25.

[The Final Dakar]

Checked upshot, their odds are up 11% (81). Still a big bounce, but not a ****ing crazy one.

Edit: After the recent surge 538s odds now align with everyone else's.

[Laminar]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

A characterless buffoon, with no manners, being rude and offensive. Is this the best the Democrats can do?

[P]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Checked upshot, their odds are up 11% (81). Still a big bounce, but not a ****ing crazy one.

Edit: After the recent surge 538s odds now align with everyone else's.

I don't check the now-cast, so it hasn't been that large a surge for me.

Mostly the surge is because the tipping-point state is a lot safer blue right now (it is equally likely that Colorado goes red as Georgia turning blue) and because there are multiple non-correlated combinations giving Clinton 270. That last means that Clinton could win either CO, FL, NC or OH (and a few other combinations) to pass the magic number; she is currently ahead in all of them; and it is unlikely that a single polling error could affect all of those states. Previously, Clinton could win with either (say) NV or CO, but those states were much more likely to move together, and a single error could erase all of those leads.

[The Final Dakar]

Dude, the 20% surge was on polls only.

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Personally I think a stance that whoever lies better should be rewarded is absurd.

But to the meat of my point, I have some next level shit here: denying quotes. This is simple for the moderator to address: just read the quote.

My stance is whoever goes unchallenged by the opponent(s) should be rewarded. A lie is an opportunity for the opponent to hold the liar responsible. The liar is only rewarded if this opportunity is not taken.

My thesis is this fact checking, even when it comes to denying a quote, is more complicated than it looks. Point me to an example, and we'll see if I've accurately predicted it's not as cut and dried as it appears on the surface.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by subego 

My stance is whoever goes unchallenged by the opponent(s) should be rewarded. A lie is an opportunity for the opponent to hold the liar responsible. The liar is only rewarded if this opportunity is not taken.

Then the politician lies about the lie. What has been accomplished?

[besson3c]

538 now has Clinton winning Arizona (now-cast), giving her just one less electoral point than Obama had in 2008 (Obama won Indiana but didn't win Arizona).

Trump is such a dumbass. Mark Cuban dropped his support a while ago when he realized that Trump didn't "understand the issues". A month away from the election why is Trump tweeting about Miss Universe? On top of this, Trump is clearly not doing well with women. Most politicians would either pander or show some empathy, but instead he has chosen to alienate not only women, but a number of other populations too.

Does he want to win or not?

[besson3c]

I also can't wait for this stupid election to be over.

[andi*pandi]

Originally Posted by subego 

My stance is whoever goes unchallenged by the opponent(s) should be rewarded. A lie is an opportunity for the opponent to hold the liar responsible. The liar is only rewarded if this opportunity is not taken.

My thesis is this fact checking, even when it comes to denying a quote, is more complicated than it looks. Point me to an example, and we'll see if I've accurately predicted it's not as cut and dried as it appears on the surface.

In a way, perhaps this plays into the liar's game plan. If candidate A interrupts candidate B with a lie, and candidate B wastes his/her time answering to that, it's 1) taking away from candidate B's message, and 2) bringing the attention to candidate A. Candidate B is going to look more presidential taking the high road instead of bickering.

What's astonishing is the level of "who cares" we're seeing about the facts, or the misinterpretation thereof.

[Paco500]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

What's astonishing is the level of "who cares" we're seeing about the facts, or the misinterpretation thereof.

I'm not sure if this is what you are getting at, but Trump (and now Pence) have really transcended the lie. I don't think they expect anyone to believe what they are saying- the message seems to be that the truth or facts just don't matter.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

I also can't wait for this stupid election to be over.

It's never over. 11/09/2016 starts the campaign for 2020

[The Final Dakar]

This belongs in a different political thread, but Jesus Christ we now have Hurricane truthers. People, get your shit together.

Edit: A previous version of this post chastised conservatives for the fringe, but liberals haven't been able to rectify their anti-GMO and vaccine nuts, so its an unfair remark.

[subego]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Then the politician lies about the lie. What has been accomplished?

The observer has been given an opportunity to come to their own decision about what has transpired.

This is opposed to an imperfect moderator being charged with the duty of making the decision for them.