[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Why would you assume that? Microsoft hasn't said they will use it, but they certainly haven't said they won't. If Microsoft decided to start including stuff like extras, HDi would certainly be the most practical way to do it. Not to mention, Microsoft already has the rights to use the format. It's a far more logical assumption that the would use tech that they already have the rights for instead of going back to the drawing board and coming up with something new.

Why would I assume that?

1) Because they have not said they'd use it for anything other than HD DVD, which makes sense since it was built for HD DVD.
2) HDi is not necessarily the most practical way to do it. Once you're dealing with Windows PCs, you have many more options.
3) There are no plans for significant extras any time soon for digital downloads.

ie. If HDi ever gets used for this purpose, it won't be before 2010.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

1) Because they have not said they'd use it for anything other than HD DVD, which makes sense since it was built for HD DVD.

But this isn't true. HDi was not specifically built for HD-DVD.

Originally Posted by Eug 

2) HDi is not necessarily the most practical way to do it. Once you're dealing with Windows PCs, you have many more options.

Such as....? Again, because Microsoft already has rights to HDi, why would they go out and license or build an entirely new format?

Originally Posted by Eug 

3) There are no plans for significant extras any time soon for digital downloads.

ie. If HDi ever gets used for this purpose, it won't be before 2010.

Again, for the XBox 360, adding HDi to marketplace downloads would make a lot of sense. It would put marketplace movies on par with their DVD counterparts, and the XBox 360 already supports HDi. It would be a pretty simple update, certainly not something that would take until 2010 to accomplish.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

But this isn't true. HDi was not specifically built for HD-DVD.

It wasn't built to exclude usage on anything else, and actually both Toshiba and MS would like to see it go beyond HD DVD eventually, but the reason HDi exists was specifically for HD DVD.

Such as....? Again, because Microsoft already has rights to HDi, why would they go out and license or build an entirely new format?

Are you sure it would cost them nothing? The spec belongs to the DVD Forum, and I believe it would include IP from both Toshiba and MS (although mostly MS).

Again, for the XBox 360, adding HDi to marketplace downloads would make a lot of sense. It would put marketplace movies on par with their DVD counterparts, and the XBox 360 already supports HDi. It would be a pretty simple update, certainly not something that would take until 2010 to accomplish.

They're having enough problems as it is with just plain-Jane 720p downloads. Do you seriously expect them to have full-fledged HD DVD like downloads any time soon?

Judging by what MS people have said in the past, this type of thing would not be a simple update at all... if you're talking about real-world implementation.

You're not going to see anything like HD DVD for Xbox 360 downloads any time soon. And even if you did (in 2010), having it on the Xbox 360 is at best a small first step, since the real market is on Windows PCs.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by icruise 

This brings up an interesting question. Who is it that is determining which titles go on sale? I don't think it's the retailers.

If you are selling at $10 to $15 per HDDVD/Bluray, you are losing money on every sale unless the studios are compensating for it.

For smaller retailers, any BOGO sale would probably be the retailer's idea and isn't compensated by the studios. The smaller retailers are willing to sell at a lost to gain customers and generate more traffic to their store or website.

For larger retailers such as BestBuy and Amazon, there is no reason those stores to sell the hidef movies at a lost in order to gain more customers or increase their store presence. So for stores such as Amazon who has such a large online presence, many companies who are looking to sell their products actually pay or compensate Amazon.

Therefore, BOGO sales on Hidef movies on Amazon, it is most likely compensated by the studios.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Eug 

It wasn't built to exclude usage on anything else, and actually both Toshiba and MS would like to see it go beyond HD DVD eventually, but the reason HDi exists was specifically for HD DVD.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that HDi was designed semi-independently from HD-DVD.

Originally Posted by Eug 

Are you sure it would cost them nothing? The spec belongs to the DVD Forum, and I believe it would include IP from both Toshiba and MS (although mostly MS).

Given that they've already licensed the tech for the XBox...

Originally Posted by Eug 

They're having enough problems as it is with just plain-Jane 720p downloads. Do you seriously expect them to have full-fledged HD DVD like downloads any time soon?

Why not? The HDi files are pretty small. All we'd really be talking about is adding a few more video tracks.

Originally Posted by Eug 

Judging by what MS people have said in the past, this type of thing would not be a simple update at all... if you're talking about real-world implementation.

Real world implementation that is already done.

Originally Posted by Eug 

You're not going to see anything like HD DVD for Xbox 360 downloads any time soon. And even if you did (in 2010), having it on the Xbox 360 is at best a small first step, since the real market is on Windows PCs.

Why do you say that? The XBox 360 would be a huge first step. Watching movies on a Windows PC is going to be a niche market vs. watching movies on an XBox on a nice large TV. I think devices like the XBox or AppleTV are going to be the new entry point for media in the home.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

AppleInsider | Apple set to ship Macs with Blu-ray support - report

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

AppleInsider | Apple set to ship Macs with Blu-ray support - report

I'm hoping they do combo drives, it would be cheap enough. Apple would shoot themselves in the foot by picking a side at this point.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm not so sure about that. I think that HDi was designed semi-independently from HD-DVD.

To be accurate, you're right in a sense. It was not just designed for HD DVD, but for Blu-ray as well. HD DVD adopted it. Blu-ray didn't. The goal was to create software that could be implemented on a standalone platform without creating a huge amount of bloat.

Why not? The HDi files are pretty small. All we'd really be talking about is adding a few more video tracks.

Exactly. Bandwidth...

Real world implementation that is already done.

There is no support for this on the Xbox 360 Dashboard.

Remember, the HD DVD code is independent of the Dashboard's. This is by design. You can update the HD DVD software without affecting the Dashboard.

Why do you say that? The XBox 360 would be a huge first step. Watching movies on a Windows PC is going to be a niche market vs. watching movies on an XBox on a nice large TV. I think devices like the XBox or AppleTV are going to be the new entry point for media in the home.

The Xbox 360 is not going to revolutionize the living room. Neither is the PS3 for that matter. AppleTV is trying, but so far is failing. But that's irrelevant to the HDi discussion, because AppleTV isn't going to implement that.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

AppleInsider | Apple set to ship Macs with Blu-ray support - report

According to an Analyst? Apple is going to promote movies available for rental. Why take the spotlight away from that by releasing Macs with Bluray?

Macworld is only days away.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm hoping they do combo drives, it would be cheap enough. Apple would shoot themselves in the foot by picking a side at this point.

Well as they story mentions Jobs is on the Disney Board and they are BR exclusive and I can't see Apple pushing HD to help out their buddies at MS.

Are there even affordable combo burners on the market? The only thing I have seen is $400 BR burners.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

According to an Analyst? Apple is going to promote movies available for rental. Why take the spotlight away from that by releasing Macs with Bluray?

Macworld is only days away.

Blu-ray (or HD DVD) would only be on pro Macs at this time. Why have it? Cuz, well... Pro Macs are actually used for hi-def video. Furthermore, Leopard already natively supports the disc format that commercial Blu-ray and HD DVD use. (Tiger didn't.)

Offering Blu-ray and/or HD DVD is a logical progression for pro Macs... and one that should probably have happened in 2007.

Note though, I have not yet seen a 9.5 mm slot-load Blu-ray or HD DVD drive. A tray load version exists, but Mac laptops don't use tray load drives. So either Panasonic and friends are waiting for Macworld before they announce slot-load versions, or we won't be getting laptops with these. The tower Macs are good to go though.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Ya they are not going to be in laptops for a while but they are down to 9.5mm for desktops:
Panasonic whittles thinnest Blu-ray drive for laptops down to 9.5mm - Engadget

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm hoping they do combo drives, it would be cheap enough. Apple would shoot themselves in the foot by picking a side at this point.

Why? Will rapid HD DVD fanboys suddenly swear off buying a Mac forever because Apple went Blu? What's the alternative? I suppose they could always pick up a Toshiba notebook.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Ya they are not going to be in laptops for a while but they are down to 9.5mm for desktops:
Panasonic whittles thinnest Blu-ray drive for laptops down to 9.5mm - Engadget

? That's what I was getting at. That's a laptop drive... just not one for Mac laptops. It's always possible there is a slot-load version already available but that Panasonic (or whomever) is just holding off announcing it until Steve does first. I was just point out that nobody has announced one yet.

Mac desktops would use either a slot-load thin drive (iMac, eventually) or else a half-height desktop drive (Mac Pro), so that drive you linked isn't going to be used in Mac desktops either.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Blu-ray (or HD DVD) would only be on pro Macs at this time. Why have it? Cuz, well... Pro Macs are actually used for hi-def video. Furthermore, Leopard already natively supports the disc format that commercial Blu-ray and HD DVD use. (Tiger didn't.)

Offering Blu-ray and/or HD DVD is a logical progression for pro Macs... and one that should probably have happened in 2007.

Note though, I have not yet seen a 9.5 mm slot-load Blu-ray or HD DVD drive. A tray load version exists, but Mac laptops don't use tray load drives. So either Panasonic and friends are waiting for Macworld before they announce slot-load versions, or we won't be getting laptops with these. The tower Macs are good to go though.

Sure, but that wasn't my question. Why announce support for Bluray during MacWorld and have it steal some of the spotlight from movie rentals in iTunes.

What if you don't want a Bluray drive? What if you don't want a HDDVD drive? I would guess a BTO is a better choice. You can select either a Bluray or HDDVD drive depending on your needs.

[ort888]

Yeah, the first step would be to add a Blu-ray drive as a BTO option on the Mac Pro. Anything more than that would surprise me.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Eug 

? That's what I was getting at. That's a laptop drive... just not one for Mac laptops. It's always possible there is a slot-load version already available but that Panasonic (or whomever) is just holding off announcing it until Steve does first. I was just point out that nobody has announced one yet.

Mac desktops would use either a slot-load thin drive (iMac, eventually) or else a half-height desktop drive (Mac Pro), so that drive you linked isn't going to be used in Mac desktops either.

I seriously doubt apple is anywhere near putting it in a laptop drive, it just isn't affordable, needed or available.

I do think the MacPro's will get BR drives really soon though even if they are just readers.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Sure, but that wasn't my question. Why announce support for Bluray during MacWorld and have it steal some of the spotlight from movie rentals in iTunes.

Why announce anything then? They should just call it iTunesrentalworld.

What if you don't want a Bluray drive? What if you don't want a HDDVD drive? I would guess a BTO is a better choice. You can select either a Bluray or HDDVD drive depending on your needs.

I would suspect it would be BTO... ie. No hi-def drive at all, vs. one hi-def drive.

Even though their DVD Studio Pro software already supports non-commercial HD DVD, I do think Apple leans somewhat to the Blu-ray side, if only because MS has more stake in HD DVD than in Blu-ray. (MS has IP in both, but the adoption of HDi by HD DVD means MS heavily favours HD DVD.)

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

I seriously doubt apple is anywhere near putting it in a laptop drive, it just isn't affordable, needed or available.

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see the MacBook Pro get a hi-def burner option soon.

I do think the MacPro's will get BR drives really soon though even if they are just readers.

It will be a burner.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Sure, but that wasn't my question. Why announce support for Bluray during MacWorld and have it steal some of the spotlight from movie rentals in iTunes.

What if you don't want a Bluray drive? What if you don't want a HDDVD drive? I would guess a BTO is a better choice. You can select either a Bluray or HDDVD drive depending on your needs.

I doubt a Blu-ray support announcement would steal the thunder from movie rentals. They're geared towards two different types of user. Like Eug said, those interested in Blu-ray support are likely to be pro users who edit high definition video and author in HDM. iTunes rentals are more likely to impact general consumers who, according to most reports, have been sitting out on the format war anyway.

Secondly, what if I didn't want or need wifi when Apple first announced it? Like it or not, HD media is the future and Apple likes to be on the cusp on introducing new technologies into their computers.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES

I seriously doubt apple is anywhere near putting it in a laptop drive, it just isn't affordable, needed or available.

Isn't it really only a matter of when Apple's OEM suppliers can ship a thin, slot-loading Blu-ray burner? I can think of a few uses for a Blu-ray burner in Apple's notebooks, especially given the prevalence of people using notebooks as desktop replacements and working on-the-go.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES

I do think the MacPro's will get BR drives really soon though even if they are just readers.

I have to agree that it will likely be a burner. Given Apple's stake in the video editing field, I doubt they'd stuff a Blu-ray player-only in a Mac Pro to make it subpar home theater replacement.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

How about we save us all a lot of trouble arguing over it and just wait a couple weeks till macworld. Then if they go BR we can argue over how Apple just dropped the ball and it won't be long before they offer HD due to demand.

[Eug]

Also, note that even if say Apple will only BTO Blu-ray burners, and offers no HD DVD option, (or vice versa), that's no big deal if your work requires the other format.

You can simply buy a Firewire or USB 2.0 external drive, or else buy a drive and stick it in a cheap USB 2 enclosure. My Xbox 360 drive gets recognized just fine in OS X.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

How about we save us all a lot of trouble arguing over it and just wait a couple weeks till macworld. Then if they go BR we can argue over how Apple just dropped the ball and it won't be long before they offer HD due to demand.

? You brought it up with your AppleInsider link.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Also, note that even if say Apple will only BTO Blu-ray burners, and offers no HD DVD option, (or vice versa), that's no big deal if your work requires the other format.

My thoughts exactly. All this moaning about Apple picking sides is a bit fanboyish. If Apple announces a built-in Blu-ray drive or a Blu-ray option, and a user did his work with FCP but authored with HD DVD, I highly doubt he would change his current workflow either way, and vice versa. A Mac is still a Mac whether or not it has a Blu-ray or HD DVD drive.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Why announce anything then? They should just call it iTunesrentalworld.

That's a silly argument. Macworld is a consumer show. Announcing Bluray support during a consumer expo means it's targeting the consumer market, which means for movie viewing and competes with iTunes movie rental. Other announcements like a new tablet does not compete with the iTunes movie rental.

If Apple wants to announce support for Bluray for content developers, they would wait till the NAB expo, NAMM, SIGGRAPH, or even WWDC.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

How about we save us all a lot of trouble arguing over it and just wait a couple weeks till macworld. Then if they go BR we can argue over how Apple just dropped the ball and it won't be long before they offer HD due to demand.

That's what I'm saying when you post a link to Apple Insider. Macworld is just a few days away, so why bother arguing about it or even post the link to begin with since it's just an analyst prediction.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Eug 

? You brought it up with your AppleInsider link.

As news not as bait for a 10 page argument 2 weeks before we will know for sure anyway.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

That's a silly argument. Macworld is a consumer show. Announcing Bluray during a consumer expo means it's targeting the consumer market, which means for movie viewing and competes with iTunes movie rental. Other announcements like a new tablet does not compete with the iTunes movie rental.

Macworld only a consumer show? Really? I've been going to Macworld for four years now (my fifth in two weeks), and past Apple announcements have included everything from Xserves to the year's latest version of iLife. The show floor itself is filled with booths selling everything from iPod cases that any teenager can pick up to high-end peripherals that an average consumer without a company purchasing budget likely wouldn't touch with a 10-feet stick. Macworld has conferences and workshops (often pricey) for the entire range of user. And I've meet everyone from new Mac users to developers at the conference. Pegging it as only a consumer show is a bit generic, especially considering it's Apple's biggest stage of the year.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

That's a silly argument. Macworld is a consumer show. Announcing Bluray support during a consumer expo means it's targeting the consumer market, which means for movie viewing and competes with iTunes movie rental. Other announcements like a new tablet does not compete with the iTunes movie rental.

Apple has announced Xserves at Macworld.

If Apple wants to announce support for Bluray for content developers, they would wait till the NAB expo, NAMM, SIGGRAPH, or even WWDC.

I think Apple will just announce when it's most convenient. Yeah, NAB would be more appropriate, but they're not necessarily going to wait several months if they can announce in Jan. They're already late enough to the game as it is.

The Mac Pro is due for an update anyway.*

* To be clear, I'm not expecting Steve to announce a new Blu-ray Mac Pro at Macworld. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Since it is the 1 year anniversary of the iPhone ANNOUNCEMENT I think they will take a considerable amount of time to talk about the upcoming developer support for the iPhone and new iTunes movie rentals for Apple TV, iPhone and iPod.

I would like new MacPro's with studio displays but since the event is more consumer oriented it might get put on hold for another event.

The aside the that slim MacBook with docking station might get announced.

I can't see Apple spending any considerable amount of time talking about BR or HD as the market just isn't there.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

I can't see Apple spending any considerable amount of time talking about BR or HD as the market just isn't there.

The market for the Mac Pro isn't huge in the first place. However, BR and HD are very important for the Mac Pro market.

P.S. I wonder if they'd announce Blu-ray (or HD DVD) Mac Pros without commercial Blu-ray (or commercial HD DVD) playback support. I could see that happening, but it would annoy a lot of people.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

Why? Will rapid HD DVD fanboys suddenly swear off buying a Mac forever because Apple went Blu? What's the alternative? I suppose they could always pick up a Toshiba notebook.

Most of this has already been covered in the thread, but I guess that's what I get for replying late...

I'm not sure in the end it matters much. The market for playing high def movie content on a computer is ridiculously small. I just don't really see Apple going Bluray only. Disney seems to be unofficially supporting HD-DVD, Pixar was going to go HD-DVD before Disney bought them up, and many people inside Apple use HD-DVD. Obviously Steve Jobs won't want a high def drive that can't play Pixar films, but I don't see them going Bluray only. They still may, but I think it would be a really dumb move, given how the market can change and Apple doesn't have too much influence one way or another.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Pixar was going to go HD-DVD before Disney bought them up

Sez who?

[hyteckit]

There is absolutely no urgency to announce support for either Bluray or HDDVD during Macworld, which is a consumer expo. It competes with iTunes movie rental for the spotlight. There are better expos to announce support for either Bluray or HDDVD that are only a few months away. Third parties are already selling HDDVD and Bluray burners for Macs, and Toast already supports them.

Half the Macworld keynote will be dedicated to talking about sales numbers for iPhones, iPods, Leopard, and Macs. The remaining half of the keynote will be dedicated to the iPhone, Apple TV, Movie Rentals, and any new hardware updates or new products. There will be no talk about Bluray or HDDVD.

All the talk about Bluray and HDDVD will be at CES. Warner might make the announcement that it will go HDDVD exclusive.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Warner might make the announcement that it will go HDDVD exclusive.

If Warner does go HD exclusive I am swearing off this whole round of HD disks.
Since the PS3 will always have BR in it there will always be BR movies for sale making the war NEVER end.

I swear if they dare do something as stupid as HD only when BR has been outselling HD for 12 months it will look like nothing more than another payout and consumers will be fed up with all this **** and both formats will slowly die till the next thing comes around.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

If Warner does go HD exclusive I am swearing off this whole round of HD disks.
Since the PS3 will always have BR in it there will always be BR movies for sale making the war NEVER end.

That's like saying PSP will always have UMD in it, so there will always be UMD movies.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

That's like saying PSP will always have UMD in it, so there will always be UMD movies.

Except the PS3's are marketed as a home entertainment system and according to sales people are actually buying BR movies.

The PSP movies were really just gravy that nobody wanted.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

That's like saying PSP will always have UMD in it, so there will always be UMD movies.

Speaking of which I saw an ad for some movie that's just coming out being listed as available in DVD, Blu-Ray and UMD. I didn't even know they were still selling them.

[Eug]

Before I make my comments, I will say that I think Warner will stay neutral at CES. However...

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

I swear if they dare do something as stupid as HD only when BR has been outselling HD for 12 months it will look like nothing more than another payout and consumers will be fed up with all this **** and both formats will slowly die till the next thing comes around.

Of course there will be incentives, but that's true with either side they choose.

Anyways, Warner has long said that they will be looking hard at Q4 standalone sales. We know that HD DVD standalones have outsold Blu-ray standalones, but what we don't know are the exact numbers or what levels will trigger a switch by Warner one way or another.

I think the problem here is very many Blu-ray fans have been counting on a Warner Blu-ray switch, but that's something that never made sense to me. Warner holds IP in HD DVD and sits on their Promotional Group, and they began the war firmly in the HD DVD camp. Thus, I think they lean HD DVD. It will take more than 1.5X sales with Blu-ray software when the sales are so low, to make Warner go exclusive Blu-ray. The question is if the BDA is willing to put up enough incentives to direct Warner their way.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

I don't see why a STUDIO would look at "stand alone player sales". Are they planning for the future when suddenly all these stand alone HD owners rush out onto the streets and start buying Disks by the truckload?

Warner is a STUDIO and the only thing they should concern themselves with is DISK sales and attachment rate. For 12 months BR has had better sales AND attachment rate.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

I don't see why a STUDIO would look at "stand alone player sales". Are they planning for the future when suddenly all these stand alone HD owners rush out onto the streets and start buying Disks by the truckload?

Warner Home Video's President himself says standalone player sales numbers are very important to Warner.

"It will be really pivotal what Toshiba does this fourth quarter in hardware." - Ron Sanders

So why don't you ask him? Oh wait, he already answered you:

"So, for our interests, more razors means we’ll sell more razor blades down the road."

Warner is a STUDIO and the only thing they should concern themselves with is DISK sales and attachment rate. For 12 months BR has had better sales AND attachment rate.

BR has had better software sales at this early time (when hi-def represents around 1ish % of overall disc sales) and a lower attachment rate. The latter is the problem... along with the fact that the PS3 has not sold anywhere near what Sony was originally claiming it would. While it sold more than standalones in 2007, its movie software attachment rate is much lower, and therefore can't pull higher BD:HD sales numbers. IOW, the PS3 is just not as good of a razor for selling razor blades as a standalone.

Unfortunately for Sony, most people don't expect PS3 sales to grow as much as standalone hi-def player sales.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

There is absolutely no urgency to announce support for either Bluray or HDDVD during Macworld, which is a consumer expo. It competes with iTunes movie rental for the spotlight. There are better expos to announce support for either Bluray or HDDVD that are only a few months away. Third parties are already selling HDDVD and Bluray burners for Macs, and Toast already supports them.

I think the above comments have addressed all these points.

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Half the Macworld keynote will be dedicated to talking about sales numbers for iPhones, iPods, Leopard, and Macs. The remaining half of the keynote will be dedicated to the iPhone, Apple TV, Movie Rentals, and any new hardware updates or new products. There will be no talk about Bluray or HDDVD.

Of course the keynote will highlight the hits. But that's not to say the inclusion of a Blu-ray/HD DVD/combo drive won't happen as a silent update. The chances of Steve talking about the inclusion of a HDM drive increases if he takes the time to announce a Mac Pro update (as in previous announcements when he lauded the inclusion of Superdrives in Macs).

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

All the talk about Bluray and HDDVD will be at CES. Warner might make the announcement that it will go HDDVD exclusive.

All the talk about Blu-ray and HD DVD might very well be at CES, but Apple usually skips out on CES with Macworld so close on its heels.

As for Warner, what are you smokin'? Warner will more likely remain neutral or go Blu. Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD in titles all of 2007. In Warner releases, Blu-ray has either decided beat HD DVD sales (The Departed, 300) or remained near 1:1 with HD DVD titles. Hell, the only title available on both formats that HD DVD has won by a wide margin is probably Planet Earth. If you're counting on standalone player numbers, Toshiba's A2 firesale liquidation aside, the price point between Blu-ray and HD DVD standalones is quickly narrowing. And I know HD DVD supporters like to discount the PS3 as a viable Blu-ray player, but the fact remains that the PS3 is the best and most reasonably priced Blu-ray player on the market (though that will likely change as more Blu-ray standalones drop in price), and once factored in dominates HD DVD player sales.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

If you're counting on standalone player numbers, Toshiba's A2 firesale liquidation aside, the price point between Blu-ray and HD DVD standalones is quickly narrowing. And I know HD DVD supporters like to discount the PS3 as a viable Blu-ray player, but the fact remains that the PS3 is the best and most reasonably priced Blu-ray player on the market (though that will likely change as more Blu-ray standalones drop in price), and once factored in dominates HD DVD player sales.

Bingo. Warner is smoking major grass if they thing HD sales in Q4 will exceed BR combined player sales and PS3's and think they will sell more HD-DVD disks in the end.

The PS3 is selling better and better while getting cheaper.

BR Stand alone players are getting very very close to the same price as HD players.

BR with profile 1.1 has just about everything HD has in terms of features not that it matters because BR still outsold HD the month it came out even though the players cost 3x more, the disks weren't as good quality in terms of video or features, HD had a head start and the standard wasn't finalized.

If all those things didn't bother consumers 12 months ago they sure as hell won't now.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

As for Warner, what are you smokin'? Warner will more likely remain neutral or go Blu. Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD in titles all of 2007. In Warner releases, Blu-ray has either decided beat HD DVD sales (The Departed, 300) or remained near 1:1 with HD DVD titles. Hell, the only title available on both formats that HD DVD has won by a wide margin is probably Planet Earth. If you're counting on standalone player numbers, Toshiba's A2 firesale liquidation aside, the price point between Blu-ray and HD DVD standalones is quickly narrowing. And I know HD DVD supporters like to discount the PS3 as a viable Blu-ray player, but the fact remains that the PS3 is the best and most reasonably priced Blu-ray player on the market (though that will likely change as more Blu-ray standalones drop in price), and once factored in dominates HD DVD player sales.

I predict Warner to go HDDVD exclusive early this year before April. Disney will go neutral sometime later this year, after June. Gives them enough time to release movies for the holiday season.

I don't know what the sales numbers are for The Departed, but for 300, Bluray is outselling HDDVD because 300 is included in all the new HDDVD players. I own 300, but I didn't have to purchase it. So if there are over 150,000 copies of Bluray version of 300, there are at least 300,000 copies of the HDDVD version in people's homes.

The only reason why Bluray is outselling HDDVD by a small margin of 1.56:1 for 2007 is because of all the BOGO sales on the Bluray side. PS3 owners might pick up a few titles for $10 to $15 a movie which they wouldn't otherwise if it was selling for $20 to $30.

Anyway know that number of Bluray and HDDVD movies sold in 2007?

Isn't the number of Bluray movies sold less than the number of PS3 owners?

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

The only reason why Bluray is outselling HDDVD by a small margin of 1.56:1 for 2007 is because of all the BOGO sales on the Bluray side.

Are you kidding? For all of 2007 every month had some sort of "Buy a HD-DVD player get 10 free movies". HD-DVD also had more Bogo sales.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Warner Home Video's President himself says standalone player sales numbers are very important to Warner.
...
IOW, the PS3 is just not as good of a razor for selling razor blades as a standalone.

Unfortunately for Sony, most people don't expect PS3 sales to grow as much as standalone hi-def player sales.

I guess $99 HD DVD players aren't very good razors for selling razor blades either. What did that Best Buy/Walmart fire sale of A2s accomplish? It put 100,000 (if I remember some early estimates correctly) HD DVD players in the hands of consumers but has yet to put a dent in Blu-ray's software sales lead. Even when HD DVD has its own BOGOs alongside Blu-ray's BOGOs, HD DVD fails to win.

And sure, if the PS3 remains at its price points while Blu-ray standalones continue to drop in price I'd pick up a standalone too. Of course PS3's sales as a Blu-ray player will slow if people instead choose to buy a cheaper Blu-ray standalone. That selling point will be gone and the PS3 will be primarily for gamers and gamers who watch movies (and vice versa).

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I guess $99 HD DVD players aren't very good razors for selling razor blades either. What did that Best Buy/Walmart fire sale of A2s accomplish? It put 100,000 (if I remember some early estimates correctly) HD DVD players in the hands of consumers but has yet to put a dent in Blu-ray's software sales lead. Even when HD DVD has its own BOGOs alongside Blu-ray's BOGOs, HD DVD fails to win.

Ya I was wondering what the hell they are talking about also. I mean since September Paramount goes exclusive to HD, the players drop to $99, Amazon has a million HD sales, the Xbox add on comes with 5-10 free movies and STILL it doesn't effect BR sales in a significant way.

[jokell82]

Guys - the mail in offers for free discs DO NOT count towards the sales numbers.

[Oversoul]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

I predict Warner to go HDDVD exclusive early this year before April. Disney will go neutral sometime later this year, after June. Gives them enough time to release movies for the holiday season.

I don't know what the sales numbers are for The Departed, but for 300, Bluray is outselling HDDVD because 300 is included in all the new HDDVD players. I own 300, but I didn't have to purchase it. So if there are over 150,000 copies of Bluray version of 300, there are at least 300,000 copies of the HDDVD version in people's homes.

The only reason why Bluray is outselling HDDVD by a small margin of 1.56:1 for 2007 is because of all the BOGO sales on the Bluray side. PS3 owners might pick up a few titles for $10 to $15 a movie which they wouldn't otherwise if it was selling for $20 to $30.

Anyway know that number of Bluray and HDDVD movies sold in 2007?

Isn't the number of Bluray movies sold less than the number of PS3 owners?

I gotta get me some of your grass!

Here's a topic on the Hi Def Digest forums on point to Warner sales ratios: Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD: Warner's 300, The Departed, Planet Earth - High-Def Digest Forums

As for The Departed and 300 first week sales, the win went overwhelmingly to Blu-ray -- and this is before Toshiba decided to include 300 free in the box. On that note, I'm sure Warner is loving the fact that Toshiba is giving away their titles for free! Sure, give away titles for free so that the consumer doesn't have to go out to buy these titles. Good for the consumer, no doubt; not so good for the studios. And note, HD DVD began their buy a HD DVD player, get 5 movies free deals before the Blu-ray camp jumped in to compete. And lastly, HD DVD has their own BOGO and B2G1 free specials from time to time too, and even then fail to win a week against Blu-ray sales.

[ort888]

Do you really think that they aren't getting a cut for these "free" movies? As if Toshiba is just pressing their own copies and throwing them in the box?

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

Guys - the mail in offers for free discs DO NOT count towards the sales numbers.

We know that. What we are saying is that even though HD is getting and has all these HUGE plus' they haven't made a dent in BR in a year.

A year later BR has almost the same price point and features so things aren't going to get better for HD unless a studio defects.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by Oversoul 

I gotta get me some of your grass!

Here's a topic on the Hi Def Digest forums on point to Warner sales ratios: Blu-Ray vs. HD DVD: Warner's 300, The Departed, Planet Earth - High-Def Digest Forums

As for The Departed and 300 first week sales, the win went overwhelmingly to Blu-ray -- and this is before Toshiba decided to include 300 free in the box. On that note, I'm sure Warner is loving the fact that Toshiba is giving away their titles for free! Sure, give away titles for free so that the consumer doesn't have to go out to buy these titles. Good for the consumer, no doubt; not so good for the studios. And note, HD DVD began their buy a HD DVD player, get 5 movies free deals before the Blu-ray camp jumped in to compete. And lastly, HD DVD has their own BOGO and B2G1 free specials from time to time too, and even then fail to win a week against Blu-ray sales.

To be fair, Blu-Ray has had MANY more BOGO sales than HD DVD. And they typically offer more titles on the Blu-Ray sales. I have yet to go for an HD DVD sale because I'm just not interested in the movies they have up (then again, I haven't seen a single Blu-Ray exclusive move I'd buy, other than Spider-Man 1 & 2 which aren't sold separately yet).