[freudling]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

They're quite welcome! I have one of them in fact and enjoy it as much as it is worth. Their presence doesn't mean there's a shift or a major change, just that there is yet another possibility to waste use one's time.

Laptops didn't end desktops in any sense, and they live happily together now. Tablets are not going to replace desktops, though perhaps in some cases they will eat into laptop sales. They're also creating an entirely new segment because they're dependent on laptops/desktops.

It's really very simple, it's not a zero sum game. For tablets to 'win', laptops/desktops don't have to 'lose'. Take people who already have chosen a desktop (non-mobile machine). A tablet isn't going to replace that computer, not even a laptop could do that, and the tablets are even less versatile or powerful. Thus it is pretty self evident that the desktop segment will stay the same because the tablets aren't eating into desktops.

But assuming that one day tablets will be free from the tether of the desktop/laptop, it can at best only replace the laptops - and only the netbooks/MacBookAirs at that. Steve Jobs and followers can call desktops 'trucks' all they want, but desktops have been trucks for almost a decade now. That's *nothing* new and the tablets won't replace the desktops. Laptops, partially, yes.

TL;DR
Desktops are already as marginalized as they will ever be, the tablets will cut into laptops to a degree, but mostly the tablet market is a new one and independent of desktops/laptops just as iPhones don't eat into landline phones. Cell phones already did that.

I'm with Shaddim. There's too many indicators in the market and too much theory that says "go tablets" for the shift not to be taking place. Hint, hint:

"First news story filmed and edited on iPad 2... and iPhone"

"Garageband revolution... create music right on the iPad2"

"Read books and periodicals"

"Surf the web"

Tablets are to consumers today what laptops were in the last decade. It's a natural evolution of more portability: the keyboard and mouse are abstracted away.

See you on the other side, pal.

[Big Mac]

Do you guys who envision tablets replacing laptops and desktops for the vast majority of people, do you envision them becoming unrestricted, general purpose devices instead of the locked down, limited computing devices they currently are?

[Spheric Harlot]

Doubtful. Not having to worry about stuf is One Big reason for iPad's success.

[Spheric Harlot]

Btw, "post-PC" just designates machines that have left behind the mouse/window/menu interface paradigm that has defined the "personal" computer for the past 25 years.

It's a bit of an unfortunate term, as computers have never been more personal than the new crop of touch-based devices.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by freudling 

Tablets are to consumers today what laptops were in the last decade. It's a natural evolution of more portability: the keyboard and mouse are abstracted away.

For argument's sake let's say that you are correct in assuming the tablets will become the "laptops" of this decade, regarding popularity - that is far from being so, but for argument's sake.

Laptops became popular and they could replace a desktop because a laptop basically could do *everything* a desktop could do, except a bit slower, most of the time on a smaller monitor and at more cost... but it could do it. A natural replacement for any person who needs a portable PC. Obvious, right?

Well, the tablets aren't exactly replacing anything. They can't do half of the stuff a desktop/laptop can to, and even if it could, you'd have to buy all new programs for it anyway. It's essentially a new niche and doesn't replace anything very well, in fact you need to be very tech savvy to attempt to use a tablet (at least the iPad) like a computer. Saving files is an obvious example. There is no filesystem. The tablet is designed to be *not* like a laptop/desktop. It's something new, which is why Steve Jobs is selling it as a Post-PC device.

There are many tricks and "cool stuff" one can do on a tablet, but really.. read a book? I realize how cool that is in a geeky way, but will it become the way people read? I have serious doubts about that. Books are actually mainstream and every attempt of making a reading device has been met with failure of some scale. Long before Egon said "print is dead" in 1984 geeks all over the world have made attempts to replace the book. The tablets aren't doing anything new in that aspect, just another stab at being the 'book replacement'.

Shooting news and editing on the iPad just shows how much work is put into news these days. Preferably none. If I see a iPad-made news-report with a Ken Burns effect, I'll open up a nice cigar and toast in brandy to this achievement of news "reporters". They will finally have reached rock bottom. But that's besides the point, at least tablets and phones are better to use as "cameras" than a laptop.

The point is, for a shift to occur, there must be a change of hardware. The tablets don't replace, they add. And what they certainly don't replace at all is the desktop machine. That's probably the *only* machine that's completely safe from the recent popularity of the tablets. Ironically.

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Books are actually mainstream and every attempt of making a reading device has been met with failure of some scale.

Amazon Sells More E-Books Than Hardcovers | Epicenter�| Wired.com

Ebooks have already started outselling paper books on amazon.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Phileas 

Amazon Sells More E-Books Than Hardcovers | Epicenter�| Wired.com

Ebooks have already started outselling paper books on amazon.

The article says it's consistently selling more e-books than *hardcovers*. That's one type of book and that is from one reseller. The articles in Wired mention that “On Christmas Day customers purchased more Kindle books than physical books.” which is one day. Nice and all. And an assumption since Amazon doesn't publish any number of Kindles sold.

But yes, more $10 e-books are being sold than $26 hardcovers at Amazon, but not paperbacks.

So the claim that Ebooks have already started outselling paper books on amazon is patently false. Hardcovers are not all paper books in general, in fact it's the smaller part of paper book sales (see quote below). It's an important milestone for the Kindle business model, no doubt, but for you to claim that e-books are outselling paper books is at best disingenuous and at worst a sad attempt to 'win' an argument on the internet by distorting facts to suit your argument.

Wired does claim that this means e-books are now mainstream. If that's any comfort.

But it also says:

The overall e-book market is still a 90-pound weakling next to the Asiatic elephant of print publishing. According to a report from Publisher’s Weekly last year, hardback sales were projected to be about $4.4 billion in 2009 (including both adult and children’s titles), while paperbacks were expected to generate $5.1 billion in revenue, audiobooks $218 million, and e-books just $81 million — less than 1 percent of the print equivalents. That’s not even counting textbooks, Bibles and professional books — with those included, Publisher’s Weekly estimated the overall book market at $35 billion in 2009.

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

But yes, more $10 e-books are being sold than $26 hardcovers at Amazon, but not paperbacks.

Read the article - it's badly phrased when it talks about hardcovers. Later on it specifies paper books vs e-books.

[MacinTommy]

I didn't expect this thread to blow up like this. It's page 3 when you search "post pc devices" on google. Lets move it to the first page...

[mattyb]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

Doubtful. Not having to worry about stuf is One Big reason for iPad's success.

Exactly. Apple has shown people that controlling hardware and operating system is the way to go. Even Google are worried about being able to 'control' Android in terms of search engine usage.

the only reason that they're still in the game, is that MS have loads and loads of $.

[nonhuman]

This argument is odd. For whom are desktops still necessary? I have a work-provided MacBook Pro, and I use it for literally everything I do. I do have an iMac at home, but that's solely for the 27" screen and it's used for little more than watching video from NetFlix, Hulu, &c. so could really be pretty easily replaced with an Apple TV, Xbox 360, Mac Mini, or even a laptop just fine (in combination with a large screen, obviously). Desktops are still used, but outside of people who need extreme data crunching abilities, they aren't necessary for anyone anymore (and the combination of laptops and cheap, virtualized servers like EC2 reduces the group of people who need desktops even more).

As far as tablets go, they're not able to take over all of the functions of a laptop. Yet. It won't be long though. I spend most of my day between writing code in Emacs and managing remote servers. There isn't currently any good solution for writing code on an iPad (there are a few, but they're not there yet for me), but it won't be long. Within two years at the most, I expect that it would be entirely possible for me to own nothing but a tablet and be just as productive as I am now. The minute there's a Ubuntu Tablet Edition that provides a full install of Ubuntu with a touch interface this will be possible for me (doesn't have to be Ubuntu that does it, but I suspect they'll be the first really viable solution for a fully-functional tablet OS).

The limiting factor preventing tablets from being real desktop/laptop replacements is nothing inherent to the tablet form factor, it's the fact that we're still learning how to design software for them. It's a completely different interface paradigm, and it's going to take some time to figure it out. But it will happen, and it won't take that long.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Phileas 

Read the article - it's badly phrased when it talks about hardcovers. Later on it specifies paper books vs e-books.

I already read it, quoted it and given you the abstract, and while in the first sentence it does mention that e-books are "consistently outselling their pulp-and-ink brethren", yet *nowhere* in the article is this substantiated. Perhaps this is the only part you read?

It just goes on to talk about *hardcover* books sold at Amazon. Nothing else.

Why don't you just quote the part where it "specifies paper books vs. e-books"? Are you talking about the sentence: "Amazon hit a symbolic milestone last holiday season, when for one day its sales of e-books exceeded the number of dead-tree books it had sold."

One day. And it isn't substantiated, only assumed because people gave a lot (number not released) of Kindles for Christmas, thus Wired assumes that on that day, technically, Amazon sold more e-books than normal books. So if you don't mind, just quote the part that supports your spin, ok? It's so infantile to just claim the opposite and tell people to "read the article again". You can do it sport!

[-Q-]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

One day. And it isn't substantiated, only assumed because people gave a lot (number not released) of Kindles for Christmas, thus Wired assumes that on that day, technically, Amazon sold more e-books than normal books.

Not to pick nits, but a sales number for Kindle devices won't give you a full insight into market or sales projections with the Kindle app being available for 7 other devices besides the Kindle hardware itself.

That said, if the Kindle had some sort of awesome, record setting sales number I'm pretty sure we would have heard about it. So the lack of sales numbers is curious and makes me wonder how many people actually have one of these items.

However, I also think that we are seeing the great next paradigm shift in personal computing. The form factor is becoming less "computer" and more "appliance" and it is helping reduce some of the complexity in using a computer.

Completely anecdotal, but I'm seeing a rapid adoption of iPads in my office, especially for our "road warriors" as it meets their needs while traveling (they have an iMac at their desk) and significantly reduces their travel weight.

And when my 75 year old mother, who has historically resisted technology, expresses interest in using it, I do think something significant is going on.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by nonhuman 

This argument is odd. For whom are desktops still necessary?

Those who buy them one would imagine. The argument that tablets affect desktops is the only odd argument.

As far as tablets go, they're not able to take over all of the functions of a laptop.

Clearly, and seeing how anemic they are as a processing device, completely due to their form factor, it's an uphill battle for them. In fact their entire existence relies upon people always using computers much in the same way as they do now. Bring in a crucial app that requiers serious computing power and boom: tablets are yesterdays gadget.

Remember that the iPad 2 can't even match the computing power of a 10 year old G4 and relies on specialized chips for decoding A/V. In fact that also relies on the fact that there will not be any significant change to the codec standards of tomorrow, because today's tablets aren't optimized (i.e. have a special hardware accelerator) for that. Tablets rely on stagnation of technology for their success.

Not saying that's a bad thing, if the technology has a long lifespan - but it does shackle the device down and makes it less prepared for whatever the future may bring.

So the behavior of the tablets will certainly follow more closely to the game console business model. Another locked down, limited and highly optimized system with relatively low computing power.

The limiting factor preventing tablets from being real desktop/laptop replacements is nothing inherent to the tablet form factor, it's the fact that we're still learning how to design software for them. It's a completely different interface paradigm, and it's going to take some time to figure it out. But it will happen, and it won't take that long.

Oh yes one of the most limiting things about tablets is the form factor. Just like form factor is a limiting element of laptops. Now if people who have desktops wanted or needed something portable (that being a dealbreaker) then they would have bought a laptop already. A tablet grants even more portability, less power and more constrictions.

Now how exactly is that going to entice the people who already don't think laptops are adequate for them? The desktop users, that is. In fact, when you think about it, the claim that a tablet can replace a desktop is so far out there that it doesn't even make sense.

"Oh I've had my desktop minitower/iMac because I didn't think the MacBook (Air) was portable or powerful enough! but now that we have TABLETS I'm shelving that desktop! I've not given a crap about portability yet, but now that I can get something super-portable, incredibly limited, tethered to my desktop and with less processing power than my first TiBook, well count me in!"

Ah.. no. That makes no sense. People who have desktops are already a niche, so to speak. Some want the big monitor, some the performance, some the I/O and some just don't need portability at all. As you write: "Desktops are still used, but outside of people who need extreme data crunching abilities, they aren't necessary for anyone anymore", but you glance over that this argument has been true for almost a decade already.

Tablets add nothing new to that argument. Thus have no effect on desktops.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

For argument's sake let's say that you are correct in assuming the tablets will become the "laptops" of this decade, regarding popularity - that is far from being so, but for argument's sake.

Laptops became popular and they could replace a desktop because a laptop basically could do *everything* a desktop could do, except a bit slower, most of the time on a smaller monitor and at more cost... but it could do it. A natural replacement for any person who needs a portable PC. Obvious, right?

Well, the tablets aren't exactly replacing anything. They can't do half of the stuff a desktop/laptop can to, and even if it could, you'd have to buy all new programs for it anyway. It's essentially a new niche and doesn't replace anything very well, in fact you need to be very tech savvy to attempt to use a tablet (at least the iPad) like a computer. Saving files is an obvious example. There is no filesystem. The tablet is designed to be *not* like a laptop/desktop. It's something new, which is why Steve Jobs is selling it as a Post-PC device.

You're oversimplifying. There is no 'file system' on iOS, but there also exists Android, WP7, webOS, and BB. Anyway, there are context sensitive file systems in iOS (e.g., in Keynote and many other Apps, a Photo browser is available).

Here's the deal. First, who cares if people have to 'buy' new programs. People buy new programs all the time for desktops and laptops. That's not an argument against it. And the programs for tablets are a lot cheaper.

Second, people want to be more mobile. Tablets are a natural progression away from the heft of a laptop. The reality? People don't need to replicate a desktop computer. I've read studies showing that 60% of people can use a tablet in their current form and completely replace their desktops and laptops. That's because these people do a set number of tasks: Email, Web surfing, reading, watching videos.

Again, I agree with Jobs here: desktops and laptops will be like trucks. Remember, we never said that laptops and desktops will disappear. They're not going anywhere. They just won't fit into people's lives like they used to.

Originally Posted by voodoo 

There are many tricks and "cool stuff" one can do on a tablet, but really.. read a book? I realize how cool that is in a geeky way, but will it become the way people read? I have serious doubts about that. Books are actually mainstream and every attempt of making a reading device has been met with failure of some scale. Long before Egon said "print is dead" in 1984 geeks all over the world have made attempts to replace the book. The tablets aren't doing anything new in that aspect, just another stab at being the 'book replacement'.

You've been living in a cave. The Kindle has been the number 1 selling device on Amazon for the past 2 years. Amazon sells more Kindle books than hardcover books. Also, in the UK, the iPad has just overtook the Kindle in terms of number of eBooks bought and read on the device. Also, the iBooks App is the number 1 favourite App according to iPad owners. Also, eBook sales are climbing at a rate of several hundred percent growth.

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Shooting news and editing on the iPad just shows how much work is put into news these days. Preferably none. If I see a iPad-made news-report with a Ken Burns effect, I'll open up a nice cigar and toast in brandy to this achievement of news "reporters". They will finally have reached rock bottom. But that's besides the point, at least tablets and phones are better to use as "cameras" than a laptop.

Regardless of your negative take on it, it's an achievement. It's showing how easy it is to be productive and do something. It's only going to get better. Try doing that on a laptop or desktop.

Originally Posted by voodoo 

The point is, for a shift to occur, there must be a change of hardware. The tablets don't replace, they add. And what they certainly don't replace at all is the desktop machine. That's probably the *only* machine that's completely safe from the recent popularity of the tablets. Ironically.

The demand for the iPad 2 is unprecedented. I predict tablets will supplant laptops, where desktops and laptops become relegated to truck status.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Remember that the iPad 2 can't even match the computing power of a 10 year old G4 and relies on specialized chips for decoding A/V. In fact that also relies on the fact that there will not be any significant change to the codec standards of tomorrow, because today's tablets aren't optimized (i.e. have a special hardware accelerator) for that. Tablets rely on stagnation of technology for their success.

That's not a very good argument, since the lifespans of general purpose machines aren't necessarily that great either. Even G4 PowerBooks bought new 5 years ago are hopelessly out of date now.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Eug 

That's not a very good argument, since the lifespans of general purpose machines aren't necessarily that great either. Even G4 PowerBooks bought new 5 years ago are hopelessly out of date now.

voodoo is king of the strawmen. Tablets do not rely on stagnation of hardware. That is patently false. Period.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Do you guys who envision tablets replacing laptops and desktops for the vast majority of people, do you envision them becoming unrestricted, general purpose devices instead of the locked down, limited computing devices they currently are?

Yes, for the most part, I see them becoming more unrestricted, certainly general purpose devices. I think we have to realize what this means though. Multi-touch operating systems seem to do a much better job in their simplicity in terms of understanding what a user wants to do. They're just simpler and more powerful at the same time. I guess we all have to sit back, realize we're human, and take a hard look at what we do on computers. You know what? It's not that different from yesterday. Productivity is still king. The Pages, Keynote, and Numbers Apps were and continue to be in the top 25 paid Apps on the App Store. Right now they are basically all in the top ten! That's competing with games and everything else. They're right there. Spreadsheets on a tablet? Really? Really.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by freudling 

voodoo is king of the strawmen. Tablets do not rely on stagnation of hardware. That is patently false. Period.

He said stagnation of technology actually, like H.264 being the standard for some number of years to come.

BTW, the one annoyance I have about the iPad 2 is that it is not spec'd to work with 1080p H.264. It is only spec'd to work with 720p H.264. I consider 1080p30 H.264 at a relatively high bitrate and at least main profile to be a sort of holy grail.

Why? Cuz it will "stagnate" there for quite some time. It is pretty much pointless for a consumption device to go over 1080p30 H.264, when the world has standardized on it or something even less (1080p24 and 1080p30 being the default Blu-ray standards). And yes, I think that 1080p standard will remain with us for the next decade.

Why does that matter for me? Because I'll have to pull out my laptop to view my BR rips. But in the end, it's not a big deal, since the lower end iPad 2 doesn't have enough storage space anyway. In 3 years, I'll just buy another one, with full 1080p30 H.264 support, and 128 GB storage.

Meanwhile, the G4s cannot even handle 720p H.264.

Note that Tegra 2 A9 chips (in the Xoom) can handle 1080p.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Meanwhile, the G4s cannot even handle 720p H.264.

Nothing short of a DP G5 can even handle Flash.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by -Q- 

And when my 75 year old mother, who has historically resisted technology, expresses interest in using it, I do think something significant is going on.

Our 62 y/o neighbor asked me about an iPad this morning while I was out for my run, I told her for what she does it would be perfect. We went up to the house and gave her a short demonstration and she was floored. So, now she's getting one with the dock and KB to replace her ancient 15" iMac.

[ort888]

Did you have a freaky three-way with her?

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by freudling 

You're oversimplifying. There is no 'file system' on iOS, but there also exists Android, WP7, webOS, and BB. Anyway, there are context sensitive file systems in iOS (e.g., in Keynote and many other Apps, a Photo browser is available).

The tablet is designed to be *not* like a laptop/desktop. It's something new, which is why Steve Jobs is selling it as a Post-PC device. Which was my point. The other tablets do have a file system, granted. The example I took was from the iPad, which is still the most popular tablet.

Another example is I/O, where tablets are very limited, compared to laptop/desktop. Another example is the computing power. Another example is customizability. etc.

Here's the deal. First, who cares if people have to 'buy' new programs. People buy new programs all the time for desktops and laptops. That's not an argument against it. And the programs for tablets are a lot cheaper.

The point wasn't whether people buy or don't buy programs. The point is a replacement has to run the same programs, with the same features and same performance. E.g.: I have a desktop and I am going to replace it with a laptop. Simple enough, I just transfer everything to the laptop, case closed. Simple, my workflow is intact and my programs are all there, working as they always have, except now on a new hardware that has replaced the old hardware.

This simple thing can not be done with a tablet. That's the point, and that's why a tablet isn't an obvious replacement for laptops (especially desktops).

BTW the reason for why tablet apps are cheaper is because they are simpler, faster to write and tiny. It's like the C64 games were always a lot cheaper than the PC/Amiga/Atari ST games for exactly the same reason.

Take any full fledged PC/Mac app and its equivalent on a tablet. They don't compare, the tablet app is always more limited. And cheaper.

Second, people want to be more mobile.

Not those who have been buying desktop machines for the last decade. Else they would have already bought a laptop. Evidently.

Tablets are a natural progression away from the heft of a laptop. The reality? People don't need to replicate a desktop computer.

Email, Web surfing, reading, watching videos can be done on an iPhone. Or even a netbook. If that's all one needs. The only natural progression I see being preached is that computers will be used less and less for anything constructive and more and more for pointless consuming. Maybe so.

But the kids won't want a tablet to play games on, so that's no go. No Dragon Age on the iPad, no Counterstrike or Halo. And really, FPS on a touch screen? Watching videos is limited also, only support h.264 and up to 720p. It's all very limited.

Again, I agree with Jobs here: desktops and laptops will be like trucks. Remember, we never said that laptops and desktops will disappear. They're not going anywhere. They just fit into people's lives like they used to.

Desktops are *already* like "trucks" if you like that metaphor. Laptops, who knows? Certainly not Steve Jobs. But if tablets are eating into any market it is the people who need a second computer and are considering a laptop. Remember: you need a "truck" PC for your "post-PC" device. At least for the foreseeable future. Ever tablet sold has a computer sold.

You've been living in a cave. The Kindle has been the number 1 selling device on Amazon for the past 2 years. Amazon sells more Kindle books than hardcover books. Also, in the UK, the iPad has just overtook the Kindle in terms of number of eBooks bought and read on the device. Also, the iBooks App is the number 1 favourite App according to iPad owners. Also, eBook sales are climbing at a rate of several hundred percent growth.

The overall e-book market is still a 90-pound weakling next to the Asiatic elephant of print publishing. According to a report from Publisher’s Weekly last year, hardback sales were projected to be about $4.4 billion in 2009 (including both adult and children’s titles), while paperbacks were expected to generate $5.1 billion in revenue, audiobooks $218 million, and e-books just $81 million — less than 1 percent of the print equivalents. That’s not even counting textbooks, Bibles and professional books — with those included, Publisher’s Weekly estimated the overall book market at $35 billion in 2009.

Regardless of your negative take on it, it's an achievement. It's showing how easy it is to be productive and do something. It's only going to get better. Try doing that on a laptop or desktop.

Here, have an achievement badge! A news report could also be recorded and edited on an iPhone. 720p and all. Neither desktops or laptops were ever used to do that, so a tablet is hardly replacing them in this case. It seems mostly to be replacing a "big" HQ digital camera. The footage had to be transferred to a "truck" computer for broadcast and playback, so that's still there. Just wasn't used for editing. So in the end this resulted in a sup-par recording and some very basic editing. The only device replaced, was the camera.

The demand for the iPad 2 is unprecedented. I predict tablets will supplant laptops, where desktops and laptops become relegated to truck status.

For every tablet there is a desktop or laptop. Tablets would have about 5% marketshare if they were counted with laptops/desktops in the USA. Desktops are already "trucks" and are happy and doing fine as such. Trucks seem to be needed.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Did you have a freaky three-way with her?

She looks too fragile. We're kinda rough sometimes.

[Eug]

I've moved flooring and tile, as well as firewood in my Prius. I don't want a truck. For the times I've needed a truck (rare) I actually rented a van.

P.S. Car (and truck) analogies always suck.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Eug 

That's not a very good argument, since the lifespans of general purpose machines aren't necessarily that great either. Even G4 PowerBooks bought new 5 years ago are hopelessly out of date now.

True, it's not a perfect argument, it was just to illustrate that the apparent performance of tablets relies heavily on very specific hardware acceleration. If a new standard emerges, then that particular device has no way of using it because it will require new hardware for it. The general processing unit would probably not be up to the task.

So as long as people behave exactly within the imagines specifications of the maker of the tablet, all is well. However, if they stray, trouble begins - most immediate example today is Flash, which most tablet devices have considerable problems running. Because even though the top ARM processors of the iPad 2 can more or less handle (portable) Flash, it's still very processor intensive and drains the battery fast.

This is IMO a crucial limitation to the future and usage of these ultra-portable tablet devices and makes me think that any talk of these being the "post-PC" devices is a little premature. The consoles have exactly the same issue.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Eug 

I've moved flooring and tile, as well as firewood in my Prius. I don't want a truck. For the times I've needed a truck (rare) I actually rented a van.

P.S. Car (and truck) analogies always suck.

They always have. Thanks Steve for resurrecting them (sigh)

[Eug]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

True, it's not a perfect argument, it was just to illustrate that the apparent performance of tablets relies heavily on very specific hardware acceleration. If a new standard emerges, then that particular device has no way of using it because it will require new hardware for it. The general processing unit would probably not be up to the task.

So as long as people behave exactly within the imagines specifications of the maker of the tablet, all is well. However, if they stray, trouble begins - most immediate example today is Flash, which most tablet devices have considerable problems running. Because even though the top ARM processors of the iPad 2 can more or less handle (portable) Flash, it's still very processor intensive and drains the battery fast.

This is IMO a crucial limitation to the future and usage of these ultra-portable tablet devices and makes me think that any talk of these being the "post-PC" devices is a little premature. The consoles have exactly the same issue.

Apple responded to this, much better than I expected.

I agree Flash was important, but I predicted it'd lose its importance fairly quickly, such that a late 2011 or early 2012 iPad 3 would be fine for a large chunk of the population. Not so much with the iPad 1 in mid 2010 though.

Well, I was wrong. With Apple's marketing and financial might, they have pushed Flash aside a lot quicker. Basically, Flash in Q1-Q2 2011 is where I expected it to be in Q1 2012... Sure, some may complain about Apple's brute force methods - paying off websites, and arbitrary exclusion of Flash-based development - aren't very nice, but then again they seemed to have worked.

One thing I don't like though is the plethora of iApps for websites. Sorry people, but I have no desire to clutter up my iPhone and iPad with dedicated website iApps. The good news is that websites are getting the message, and are creating their main sites to be iOS compatible (ie. H.264 without Flash).

Sure, some of the small Flash-based sites like restaurant intro pages or condo sales sites, etc. still don't work on iOS, but those have always sucked, and I avoid them as much as possible anyway. The good news there is that web designers are starting to get the message there too.

[mduell]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Our 62 y/o neighbor asked me about an iPad this morning while I was out for my run, I told her for what she does it would be perfect. We went up to the house and gave her a short demonstration and she was floored. So, now she's getting one with the dock and KB to replace her ancient 15" iMac.

How's she going to backup and update it?

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by mduell 

How's she going to backup and update it?

I already told her that I can do that for her, I've been going over every couple months to fix something on her iMac anyway.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by mduell 

How's she going to backup and update it?

She could use her iMac

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

I already told her that I can do that for her, I've been going over every couple months to fix something on her iMac anyway.

-t

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

She could use her iMac



-t

So, now she's getting [an iPad] with the dock and KB to replace her ancient 15" iMac.

Assuming replace means what it usually means, then she has no iMac any more.

[freudling]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

The tablet is designed to be *not* like a laptop/desktop. It's something new, which is why Steve Jobs is selling it as a Post-PC device. Which was my point. The other tablets do have a file system, granted. The example I took was from the iPad, which is still the most popular tablet.

Another example is I/O, where tablets are very limited, compared to laptop/desktop. Another example is the computing power. Another example is customizability. etc.



The point wasn't whether people buy or don't buy programs. The point is a replacement has to run the same programs, with the same features and same performance. E.g.: I have a desktop and I am going to replace it with a laptop. Simple enough, I just transfer everything to the laptop, case closed. Simple, my workflow is intact and my programs are all there, working as they always have, except now on a new hardware that has replaced the old hardware.

This simple thing can not be done with a tablet. That's the point, and that's why a tablet isn't an obvious replacement for laptops (especially desktops).

BTW the reason for why tablet apps are cheaper is because they are simpler, faster to write and tiny. It's like the C64 games were always a lot cheaper than the PC/Amiga/Atari ST games for exactly the same reason.

Take any full fledged PC/Mac app and its equivalent on a tablet. They don't compare, the tablet app is always more limited. And cheaper.



Not those who have been buying desktop machines for the last decade. Else they would have already bought a laptop. Evidently.



Email, Web surfing, reading, watching videos can be done on an iPhone. Or even a netbook. If that's all one needs. The only natural progression I see being preached is that computers will be used less and less for anything constructive and more and more for pointless consuming. Maybe so.

But the kids won't want a tablet to play games on, so that's no go. No Dragon Age on the iPad, no Counterstrike or Halo. And really, FPS on a touch screen? Watching videos is limited also, only support h.264 and up to 720p. It's all very limited.



Desktops are *already* like "trucks" if you like that metaphor. Laptops, who knows? Certainly not Steve Jobs. But if tablets are eating into any market it is the people who need a second computer and are considering a laptop. Remember: you need a "truck" PC for your "post-PC" device. At least for the foreseeable future. Ever tablet sold has a computer sold.



The overall e-book market is still a 90-pound weakling next to the Asiatic elephant of print publishing. According to a report from Publisher’s Weekly last year, hardback sales were projected to be about $4.4 billion in 2009 (including both adult and children’s titles), while paperbacks were expected to generate $5.1 billion in revenue, audiobooks $218 million, and e-books just $81 million — less than 1 percent of the print equivalents. That’s not even counting textbooks, Bibles and professional books — with those included, Publisher’s Weekly estimated the overall book market at $35 billion in 2009.



Here, have an achievement badge! A news report could also be recorded and edited on an iPhone. 720p and all. Neither desktops or laptops were ever used to do that, so a tablet is hardly replacing them in this case. It seems mostly to be replacing a "big" HQ digital camera. The footage had to be transferred to a "truck" computer for broadcast and playback, so that's still there. Just wasn't used for editing. So in the end this resulted in a sup-par recording and some very basic editing. The only device replaced, was the camera.



For every tablet there is a desktop or laptop. Tablets would have about 5% marketshare if they were counted with laptops/desktops in the USA. Desktops are already "trucks" and are happy and doing fine as such. Trucks seem to be needed.

LOL, all this hand waving. First, your stats are wrong. eBook sales: US Trade Wholesale Electronic Book Sales Q3,2010: $120 million, IDF. Not too many channels reporting, number likely much higher.

Tablets will supplant laptops, time will tell.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Assuming replace means what it usually means, then she has no iMac any more.

My mother rarely uses her iMac much these days either, since she got her iPad. I just sync it with her computer whenever I go down to visit her.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Assuming replace means what it usually means, then she has no iMac any more.

It could mean she just uses the iPad for most tasks, but doesn't physically toss out the iMac.

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

It could mean she just uses the iPad for most tasks, but doesn't physically toss out the iMac.

-t

That's what it means in my mother's case. She still uses the iMac, but not nearly as much. She does home hemodialysis, which means being hooked up to a machine four four hours a day, six days a week (much better than going to a dialysis center). It's hard to use the iMac when she's hooked up, but with her iPad she does everything she would do with the iMac while on dialysis anyways (watch movies via Netflix, play games, surfs the web, etc).

[MacinTommy]

I know someone who returned the iPad because their wireless printer was't compatible. That's something that frustrates me with my post-pc iPhone is that I too have an HP wireless printer yet can't use AirPrint. Just thought I'd share...

[Spheric Harlot]

About a dozen can be retrofit for AirPrint via firmware update.

[MacinTommy]

HP Photosmart Plus B209a?

[Spheric Harlot]

nope, sorry.

HP Web-Connected Printers | AirPrint

[nonhuman]

I don't understand the insistance on pretending the problems will never be solved and technology will never get better. The problems and limitation with the iPad, iPad 2, Xoom, &c. are not relevant. The technology will continue to develop, the processors will continue to get more powerful (not that it really matters, computers are fairly overpowered already), batteries will continue to improve while electronics continue to get more efficient.

What is a specific problem with tablets that cannot be overcome by refining and improving the technology they are built with?

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

For every tablet there is a desktop or laptop. Tablets would have about 5% marketshare if they were counted with laptops/desktops in the USA.

iPad ALONE held 15% in Q3 2010 (Apple's fiscal Q4 2010):

Apple Market Share is #1 with the iPad

over 8% in Q4 (Apple's Q1):

iPad Market Share Stabilizes as Post-PC Apple Products Surge: Apple News, Tips and Reviews �
(Granted, this article counts shipped devices, rather than sold devices, and states that the Galaxy Tab has significant share of the tablet market, but we know now that they didn't actually sell many at all.)

What I find amusing is that even if iPad's share of the entire PC market were only 5% as you claim, you manage to put that off as insignificant.

Attaining 5% of a thirty-five-year-old market with a single product in a category that didn't even EXIST just one year ago (and even if you insist on ten years of Windows tablet PCs being the same category - which it's not - selling in the thousands hardly counts as a significant market presence) is UNHEARD OF.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

The overall e-book market is still a 90-pound weakling next to the Asiatic elephant of print publishing. According to a report from Publisher’s Weekly last year, hardback sales were projected to be about $4.4 billion in 2009 (including both adult and children’s titles), while paperbacks were expected to generate $5.1 billion in revenue, audiobooks $218 million, and e-books just $81 million — less than 1 percent of the print equivalents. That’s not even counting textbooks, Bibles and professional books — with those included, Publisher’s Weekly estimated the overall book market at $35 billion in 2009.

"projected to be… in 2009"?

That reminds of your "proof" that movie downloads weren't going anywhere using years-old data.


Oh! How timely:

US e-book sales spike 115 percent at start of 2011

E-book sales have better than doubled year-to-year, the Association of American Publishers said. A new study put out on Thursday saw e-book sales surge 115 percent in January to produce $69.9 million in revenue versus just a year ago. The rush came as regular hardcover books lost 11.3 percent of their revenue to hit $49.1 million, paperbacks fell 19.7 percent to $83.6 million, and "mass market" books plunged 30.9 percent to $39 million.
Books on CD or tape were also down slightly, as were textbooks and academic books. Only religious books grew, the AAP said.

This is US-only, and they're leaving out religious books and books on tape.

But $70 million vs. $170 million for the rest of the market is, um, not insignificant.

Not even two years later.

[mduell]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

She could use her iMac

Can a 15" iMac even run the version of iTunes that an iPad requires?

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

iPad ALONE held 15% in Q3 2010 (Apple's fiscal Q4 2010):

Apple Market Share is #1 with the iPad

over 8% in Q4 (Apple's Q1):

iPad Market Share Stabilizes as Post-PC Apple Products Surge: Apple News, Tips and Reviews �
(Granted, this article counts shipped devices, rather than sold devices, and states that the Galaxy Tab has significant share of the tablet market, but we know now that they didn't actually sell many at all.)

What I find amusing is that even if iPad's share of the entire PC market were only 5% as you claim, you manage to put that off as insignificant.

Attaining 5% of a thirty-five-year-old market with a single product in a category that didn't even EXIST just one year ago (and even if you insist on ten years of Windows tablet PCs being the same category - which it's not - selling in the thousands hardly counts as a significant market presence) is UNHEARD OF.

Here have a badge for missing the point. The point is that for a "post PC" device it has replaced pretty much exactly 0% of these PCs it isn't much of a Post-PC device at all. It's an addition, a new device. You can play around in statistics all you like, but the fact remains that every single "post-PC" device needs a PC to function.

Jeez Spheric. It's like you think I'm talking these tablets down (which you take personally, alas), when I'm simply pointing out how ridiculous the "post-PC" hype/sales pitch is. Tablets will not replace PCs, nor are they a "game changer". Simply another device in the already existing flora of computers. Coexisting with PCs.

Steve Jobs is wrong.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by mduell 

Can a 15" iMac even run the version of iTunes that an iPad requires?

You could get 10.5.8 on there, I suppose.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Here have a badge for missing the point. The point is that for a "post PC" device it has replaced pretty much exactly 0% of these PCs it isn't much of a Post-PC device at all.

And you know this to be the case because…?

I gather that Phileas' iPad purchases were made INSTEAD of laptops. How does that not "replace" them?

Also, making a supporting point ("ebooks are irrelevant") and then telling somebody it was irrelevant when he knocks it down amounts to admitting a red herring.

Don't bother setting up another pair of phantom goalposts, please.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Here have a badge for missing the point. The point is that for a "post PC" device it has replaced pretty much exactly 0% of these PCs it isn't much of a Post-PC device at all.

Have a cookie for being utterly, unalterably, unfixably wrong: "[Gartner] now expects PC sales this year to climb by just 10.5 percent in contrast to 2010, not the 15.9 percent the firm had originally anticipated." In other words, they're expecting iPad sales to chop more than 33% off of PC sales growth this year.

The iPad already knocked 2% to 3% off PC sales in 4Q10.

Both of those are conservative estimates. Other's put the iPad's damage to laptop sales at 25%.

On the bright side, if you want to pick up a PC laptop for cheap, this is the year to do it.

[Spheric Harlot]

That's 33% off PC sales GROWTH, if I read you correctly.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

That's 33% off PC sales GROWTH, if I read you correctly.

Oops: yes. They're forecasting 33% fewer sales than there would've been without the iPad.