[Zeeb]

I had actually preferred Hillary over Obama for the nomination, but at this point it appears that there is almost no chance that she will get it. Yet, she lends her campaign her own money and continues and has said she will do so until there is a nomination. The only thing she seems to be accomplishing now is to further damage Obama before he comes up against John McCain.

Does she see some possibility that others don't?

[nonhuman]

Come on now, mathematical impossibility aside, I think she's still got a decent chance!

[Zeeb]

Maybe she's planning to assassinate Obama. lol

[Chuckit]

No. She's an overachiever, she'd been sure this would be her year, and she simply can't accept that it didn't turn out that way.

Or maybe she's actually been supporting McCain all along.

[Luca Rescigno]

I think at this point Obama just needs to start acting like he's not running against Hillary anymore. He needs to just pretend like his eventual nomination is a foregone conclusion and not give any attention to Clinton at all. That's basically how things are anyway; there's no way Hillary can win short of a miracle or massive fraud.

It'd be best for the Democratic party in general if Obama started campaigning against a Republican instead of another Democrat for a change.

[Chongo]

maybe because she's behind this guy
YouTube - larrysinclair0926's Channel

[OldManMac]

She will quit within a few weeks. She's running out of money, she cancelled all her talk shows after the last primaries; her team is just deciding how to do it. She has an ego as big as Bill's (and that's saying something), so it's going to be the most painful decision she'll ever make, but even she has to realize that she hasn't got a chance. She's too polarizing.

[lpkmckenna]

Originally Posted by Luca Rescigno 

... there's no way Hillary can win short of a miracle or massive fraud.

No, that could never happen!

[turtle777]

Ding Dong! The Witch is dead. Which old Witch? The Wicked Witch!
Ding Dong! The Wicked Witch is dead.

-t

[Chongo]

Time mag's next cover?

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by OldManMac 

She will quit within a few weeks. She's running out of money, she cancelled all her talk shows after the last primaries; her team is just deciding how to do it. She has an ego as big as Bill's (and that's saying something), so it's going to be the most painful decision she'll ever make, but even she has to realize that she hasn't got a chance. She's too polarizing.

I think she's got an ego bigger than Bill's. Not only are her chances extremely slim, but continuing to push makes the chances for the Democratic Party extremely slim.

I think she's too focussed on going down in history as the first woman President of the United States.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

The only thing she seems to be accomplishing now is to further damage Obama before he comes up against John McCain.

Nah, the only thing she's accomplishing is losing her own pride. She's helping Democrats, not hurting them, IMO. For one thing, they're registering to vote in the gazillions, unlike Republicans. There's plenty of time for MCain.

Does she see some possibility that others don't?

Cheating.

[Captain Obvious]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

at this point it appears that there is almost no chance that she will get it.

Why is that?
The pledged delegates won't win it for either one of them alone. The fact that super delegates can switch any time they feel like it makes it possible for her pull ahead between now and the convention. People who talk about the "math" are idiots Obama could implode for all we know. One big **** up and his lead could disappear with those super delegates abandoning him.

Given that she's been working towards this goal for most of her life it would be stupid for her to just throw up her hands and walk away. Furthermore, when Obama loses in the fall it all becomes about 2012 and she doesn't want to leave the impression that she is a quitter.

[smacintush]

She won't quit because this is her only real chance to be President. As long as there is the slimmest hope she will continue.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

For one thing, they're registering to vote in the gazillions, unlike Republicans. There's plenty of time for MCain.

Obviously you've never heard of operation chaos.

Even Obama has credited it.

[peeb]

Anyone else feel that the Democrats are really fumbling this one? They had the opportunity to really monopolize media by running two campaigns about how much better either of them are than McCain, and arguing about which one is MOST better than McCain. Instead they are tearing each other apart. Missed opportunity.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Obviously you've never heard of operation chaos.

Even Obama has credited it.

I've heard of it, it happens every primary season, and it's a tiny percentage compared to the massive numbers of genuine new Democrats registering.

[spindler]

I made the call yesterday that Hillary would quit within three days. If not three, definitely seven. At this point she risks making herself look like a complete fool. The party's over, and everyone has left besides Hillary. She doesn't mind doing damage if there is a chance she can win, but she isn't delusional and knows everyone has given up.

The question is whether Obama should have her as his VP? It is a tough calculation. Will he need her to get her supporters or is the anger thing just temporary? Is she a really big liability in the election because lots of people don't like her? Would it define him as not being able to be his own man if he goes with the person who beat on him for so long? Would it be better to pick a new face, like Michael Bloomberg?

I don't know how much of this "new politics" Obama really believes and how much is a marketing tool, but I would have to think he would dislike Hillary. She is a dirty player, and will say anything to pander for a vote. Would it really make a difference to install another "nice guy" as VP? Would it be healthier for the Democrats to break the Clintons' powers? It will be interesting to see who he picks for VP.

[TheWOAT]

She will fight to get the Florida delegate votes, and probably succeed... then she will try to get Michigan as well... thats her only hope.

[peeb]

Do Democrats have to bribe someone to get the Florida votes, or is that just Republicans?

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by TheWOAT 

She will fight to get the Florida delegate votes, and probably succeed... then she will try to get Michigan as well... thats her only hope.

Even with those votes it is not enough..

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

it's a tiny percentage compared to the massive numbers of genuine new Democrats registering.

Got a link to back that up?

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Got a link to back that up?

There is no way for anybody to accurately measure the effects of Operation Chaos, these arguments are based on gut feeling. My gut feeling tells me that not all 7% of Republicans that voted in these open primaries are a part of the so-called Limbaugh army, because most people are simply not this politically informed, let alone plugged into Limbaugh.

More Democrats in Indiana (a red state, historically) voted for a Democrat for this primary season than they voted for Kerry in the 2004 general election. My theories as to why turnout has been this high:

1) Historically speaking, a massively unpopular president residing over a recession doesn't do well for his/her party

2) The pendulum has swung back at least towards the center. Newt Gingrich wrote about this just recently and pointed to some special elections where a Democrat in Louisiana beat a Republican in a district that has been Republican for the past 33 years. There have been several other special election Democrat victories, they look poised to pick up some ground in the House.

3) The Republican party is fragmented now. A quarter of Republican voters in these primaries voted for somebody other than McCain. This suggests that he hasn't fully unified his party even after all this time. There is confusion as to whether he should associate himself with a massively unpopular president and cater towards the die hard Republican base, or distance himself from the president and cater towards the Independents.

4) Obama has broken all fundraising records - more evidence of the pendulum shift.


It is too early to say with any certainty that the race won't at least be close, but if I was Republican I wouldn't be boasting and asserting projections of a Republican victory. The Democrats may snatch defeat in the jaws of victory yet again, but really, it isn't looking good for the Republicans.

[Chongo]

The Pundits speak!
YouTube - CLINTON STRATEGIST TO CLINTON: IT'S OVER.
her own "bitter"like comment'
YouTube - Hillary Clinton boasts of support from "white Americans"

Clinton Touts White Support - The Caucus - Politics - New York Times Blog watch the video

[Eug]

What happens if Obama wins and then loses the presidential election?

Does that mean Clinton has another shot at the Democratic nomination in 4 years?

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by Eug 

What happens if Obama wins and then loses the presidential election?

Does that mean Clinton has another shot at the Democratic nomination in 4 years?

that's her Plan "B". Hurt Obama so she can run in 2012

[Eug]

And she's a bit too old to be running in 2016.

So it's either screw Obama over now so she can run in 2012, or else probably nothing I guess.

[olePigeon]

Even though Clinton can't technically win by delegates, neither candidate has the required amount for nomination, so it's going to the Super Delegates. If something really bad hurts Obama's image, she can still win with support from Super Delegates.

[imitchellg5]

I sort of wish she would quit. I get tired of this fight constantly between the two. She is stubborn. She still has a chance though with the superdelegates, albeit a very small one.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

Even though Clinton can't technically win by delegates, neither candidate has the required amount for nomination, so it's going to the Super Delegates. If something really bad hurts Obama's image, she can still win with support from Super Delegates.

Yes I was thinking about that. However, it will be essentially guaranteed that Obama will win after the Super Delegate tally as well, unless they want a total revolt on their hands, or if Obama is accused of boinking a high-priced prostie or something.

However, just the fact it had to go this far will not look for him, and may harm him in the actual presidential election. He looks nowhere as "inspiring" as he was made out to be early on in the process. Meanwhile McCain has been sitting back and enjoying himself.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

Even though Clinton can't technically win by delegates, neither candidate has the required amount for nomination, so it's going to the Super Delegates. If something really bad hurts Obama's image, she can still win with support from Super Delegates.

The Supers overturning the will of the people would be a HUGE disaster. I can't see any way to win if this happens.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

The Supers overturning the will of the people would be a HUGE disaster. I can't see any way to win if this happens.

That's why he something really bad has to happen to Obama to allow Clinton to legitmately win (in the eyes of the party)... like revelations about his being in bed with a high-priced prostie, etc., or that he watches dog fights to the death in his spare time.

[paul w]

Originally Posted by Eug 

That's why he something really bad has to happen to Obama to allow Clinton to legitmately win (in the eyes of the party)... like revelations about his being in bed with a high-priced prostie, etc., or that he watches dog fights to the death in his spare time.

There's still time for him to Gary Hart us. Clinton's savvy enough to know that.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Got a link to back that up?

There have been lots of stories about all the new Dems registering to vote in these primaries. Here's one.

And of course the media, as usual, have it wrong: This extended primary has been terrific for Democrats and terrible for Republicans. Party identification already strongly favors Democrats because of Bush, and is now at a modern high for Dems. And Obama is crushing Hillary among young people - the only whites Clinton wins are old people, despite the media insisting that whites don't vote for Obama - and many of these younger people will remain Democrats throughout their lives. He's creating a new base, and it's partially because Hillary refuses to get out.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by paul w 

There's still time for him to Gary Hart us. Clinton's savvy enough to know that.

Heh. I totally forgot about that one. It's the 20th anniversary too.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

There have been lots of stories about all the new Dems registering to vote in these primaries. Here's one.

An article full of anecdotes?

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

An article full of anecdotes?

What other kind of data could there be?

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

There is no way for anybody to accurately measure the effects of Operation Chaos, these arguments are based on gut feeling. My gut feeling tells me that not all 7% of Republicans that voted in these open primaries are a part of the so-called Limbaugh army, because most people are simply not this politically informed, let alone plugged into Limbaugh.

More Democrats in Indiana (a red state, historically) voted for a Democrat for this primary season than they voted for Kerry in the 2004 general election. My theories as to why turnout has been this high:

1) Historically speaking, a massively unpopular president residing over a recession doesn't do well for his/her party

2) The pendulum has swung back at least towards the center. Newt Gingrich wrote about this just recently and pointed to some special elections where a Democrat in Louisiana beat a Republican in a district that has been Republican for the past 33 years. There have been several other special election Democrat victories, they look poised to pick up some ground in the House.

3) The Republican party is fragmented now. A quarter of Republican voters in these primaries voted for somebody other than McCain. This suggests that he hasn't fully unified his party even after all this time. There is confusion as to whether he should associate himself with a massively unpopular president and cater towards the die hard Republican base, or distance himself from the president and cater towards the Independents.

4) Obama has broken all fundraising records - more evidence of the pendulum shift.


It is too early to say with any certainty that the race won't at least be close, but if I was Republican I wouldn't be boasting and asserting projections of a Republican victory. The Democrats may snatch defeat in the jaws of victory yet again, but really, it isn't looking good for the Republicans.

I agree with most of this. (isn't that one of the signs of the apocalypse?)

This was the whole point of asking for a link. That there is no proof, only opinion.

But it's just as likely that the party IS united. Not behind McCain, but against Hilary, and to a lesser degree Obama. As dissatisfied as the right is with the current state of their party, I think they are far more worried about a Hilary or Obama Presidency.

Isn't it kinda silly to think that with all of this primary drama going on that ALL or MOST of the republicans are just either staying home or genuinely switching parties? I for one don't buy it. Not with someone like Hilary running.

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

What other kind of data could there be?

Exactly.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

Exactly.

But, in the same token, people are damn stupid and woefully politically uninformed. It is also a stretch to say that Limbaugh has had an impact on more than 1 or 2 percent of the turnout, if that.

[BRussell]

Well one piece of data that shows most newcomers aren't just Rs voting for Hillary to cause mischief is that most newcomers are voting for Obama. Here's one about PA with some good numbers and graphs. There are articles like that about most every state that's voted since the early ones, all with the same lesson: Democratic turnout has been huge, which is bad news for Repubs come November.

(smacintush - sorry about that last one; from the title I guessed it would have some actual facts, but I should've known better when we're talking about the relationship between the media and facts.)

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

The Supers overturning the will of the people would be a HUGE disaster. I can't see any way to win if this happens.

Originally Posted by Eug 

That's why he something really bad has to happen to Obama to allow Clinton to legitmately win (in the eyes of the party)... like revelations about his being in bed with a high-priced prostie, etc., or that he watches dog fights to the death in his spare time.

Originally Posted by paul w 

There's still time for him to Gary Hart us. Clinton's savvy enough to know that.

Like my brother told me, YouTube search Larry Sinclair. Pretty damming if true

[besson3c]

God Almighty, I hope that Larry Sinclair isn't the media's next retarded post-Wright pursuit... It is hard to think of anything more irrelevant.

[lefty mclefty]

i thought it was well known that sinclair FAILED his polygraph test....the right will stop at nothing to derail obama, this doesn't even pass the laugh test! a poor, handicapped soul who will obviously say anything, you guys can do better than this! ha ha ha!!!

[ink]

Originally Posted by paul w 

There's still time for him to Gary Hart us. Clinton's savvy enough to know that.

Exactly. She'd be stupid to withdraw after coming this far (ie, spending so much money). Who knows what will happen between now and the point at which she runs out of means or credibility.

Her credibility seems to be sliding though..

[smacintush]

Originally Posted by BRussell 

Democratic turnout has been huge, which is bad news for Repubs come November.

I don't think it's that simple.

Yes, the GOP isn't too fired up this time around but there are a lot of people, like me, that believe that as we get into the meat of the general campaign Obama will get weaker and weaker. I have serious doubts that he can stand up to real scrutiny.

Of course, I have serious doubts about McCain as well, but I think It'll be closer than you think.

[peeb]

Especially with Diebold running things!

[Chuckit]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

I don't think it's that simple.

Yes, the GOP isn't too fired up this time around but there are a lot of people, like me, that believe that as we get into the meat of the general campaign Obama will get weaker and weaker. I have serious doubts that he can stand up to real scrutiny.

Of course, I have serious doubts about McCain as well, but I think It'll be closer than you think.

McCain has more money than Obama, more of lead (in that Obama's had to campaign and be under scrutiny while McCain sipped cognac in his sitting room) and he is going to play dirty. Going by what we've seen so far, there's a pretty decent chance Obama is going to get swift-boated into the ground and not even put up a fight.

[BRussell]

Originally Posted by smacintush 

I don't think it's that simple.

Yes, the GOP isn't too fired up this time around but there are a lot of people, like me, that believe that as we get into the meat of the general campaign Obama will get weaker and weaker. I have serious doubts that he can stand up to real scrutiny.

Of course, I have serious doubts about McCain as well, but I think It'll be closer than you think.

Oh I don't think it's that simple either. I think the odds are in Obama's favor, given just the basic facts - the most unpopular president in history, an historically unpopular Republican party, an unpopular war, and probably a recession in an election year. But a black man winning the presidency? That's a tough one, no matter the conditions. On the other hand, Obama is around 6'5" and McCain is around 5'7". He's almost a foot shorter. Apparently that's what is really important in elections.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by lefty mclefty 

i thought it was well known that sinclair FAILED his polygraph test....the right will stop at nothing to derail obama, this doesn't even pass the laugh test! a poor, handicapped soul who will obviously say anything, you guys can do better than this! ha ha ha!!!

How do you know it is not George Soros looking out for his girl, or the Clintons themselves? The networks will never cover it anyway, too many toes would get stepped on.