[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Right just like how Warner will not go Blu because of the authoring costs or all the other insider info which was all proved wrong a few days ago.

I'm a Warner insider now too? Gee thanks.

I made my best guess on Warner. I deal with Apple, not Warner.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yep. I was sitting in on a meeting with Apple's mobile product managers. Generally Apple plots their roadmaps out a few years. People don't think that Apple shares their long term plans, but they actually do to larger customers.

We were basically talking to them while they were still on the design phase.

I'm well aware of how Apple does things. I have meetings with them once a month. However, you're wrong. Different departments do things differently.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

I'm well aware of how Apple does things. I have meetings with them once a month. However, you're wrong. Different departments do things differently.

Well, we don't interact with the Pro departments, but I specifically excluded them... so...

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

You never know when you might run into someone with insider knowledge of company product plans.

Very true.

With the exception of certain ultra-portable designs, Apple isn't dumping optical drives any time in the near future.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

YouTube - CES 2008: Toshiba's response to Warner ditching HD-DVD

"consumers expect their player to perform the way it was advertised".

Audio delays aside on both sides what isn't performing the way it is advertised on the BR side?

[Oversoul]

Wow, the Samsung BP-U5500 is a really sleek looking player. I might look into this if Paramount and Universal don't relent by May.

[Face Ache]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Yep. I was sitting in on a meeting with Apple's mobile product managers. Generally Apple plots their roadmaps out a few years. People don't think that Apple shares their long term plans, but they actually do to larger customers.

We were basically talking to them while they were still on the design phase.

Are you talking about the rumoured compact notebook? That's hardly all "consumer machines". They'd need external optical drives anyway - I'm guessing Blu-ray drives.

Actually, a stand-alone external Apple BD drive might play well with the Apple TV "roadmap" too.

Next stop - APPLEVISION!

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

With the exception of certain ultra-portable designs, Apple isn't dumping optical drives any time in the near future.

Macbooks will be first obviously, and Apple has already sold some iMacs without optical drives. It won't be too much longer before all iMac modals drop the optical drive. Obviously laptops are a priority because they need to be thinner.

I think it's likely we may see a Mini with no optical drive as well.

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Macbooks will be first obviously, and Apple has already sold some iMacs without optical drives. It won't be too much longer before all iMac modals drop the optical drive.

While it is obvious that at some point in the future we'll drop optical drives... what the **** are you smoking? Which iMacs have been sold without optical drives?

Optical discs will be with us for the better part of the next decade or so (unfortunately).

[jokell82]

Man, too many posts today...

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

HD DVD group cancels CES press conference in wake of Warner announcement: daaamn - Engadget HD

Yes, but TOSHIBA never canceled their press conference. They are two different things.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

While it is obvious that at some point in the future we'll drop optical drives... what the **** are you smoking? Which iMacs have been sold without optical drives?

Apple has already produced iMacs without optical drives.

iMac G5 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In addition to the cost and space issues, the two parts that AppleCare has to replace most often in a computer are the optical drive and the hard drive. Replacing/removing both these parts improves the reliability of Macs, and causes less issues for AppleCare.

In addition (making this conversation relevant to my day job), larger organizations hate optical drives because we hardly ever use them, but someone always jams something stupid in the drive and breaks them.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Optical discs will be with us for the better part of the next decade or so (unfortunately).

The only thing I'm not really aware of is how Apple will do Mac OS X installs without an optical drive. There are a few options, like a thumb drive, internet install... Aside from that, I don't think that optical drives are necessary for your average consumer. Some software companies will have to adapt their distribution strategies (god forbid), but aside from that...

People said the same thing about floppy drives when those went away, and it didn't end up being a huge issue.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Oh lord this is getting painful. Now that HD-DVD is gone all disks should be.

Here is news for ya... disks are going going away to downloads for at least 5 years. That is a lot of years to make lots of money on disks.

[Face Ache]

I'm not listening to tech advice or prophesy from anyone who bought a HD-DVD drive.

[Helmling]

Originally Posted by PaperNotes 

Except I wish those HD-DVD maniacal fanboys would shut up about Sony. Blu-ray was mostly Panasonic's technology and the forum was a lot bigger than Sony. When you get into the details of all the arguments against Blu-ray you will notice that it was from little minded people who had bought a Nintendo or an X-Box 360. Their attacks were not exactly against Blu-ray but a conceited attack on the PS3 using the disc format as a cover. A console made them feel insecure about themselves. Rather sad.

Ok, this is unrelated, but does the PS3 upscale DVD's?

[- - e r i k - -]

You are seriously arguing that because Apple released a limited education only model of an iMac G5 three years ago that is in any way indicative of optical drives imminent death?

Yes, floppy disks went away because they were replaced with optical disks. It's an evolution of a technology. You and I may be blinded by the speed of our 20Mb+ connections, but until broadband is ubiquitous ALL OVER THE WORLD, some form of portable media will always be with us.

I could see optical disks being replaced with disposable flash drives once that becomes economically viable however.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Ok, this is unrelated, but does the PS3 upscale DVD's?

Yes and extremely well.

[exca1ibur]

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Ok, this is unrelated, but does the PS3 upscale DVD's?

Yes

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

You are seriously arguing that because Apple released a limited education only model of an iMac G5 three years ago that is in any way indicative of optical drives imminent death?

Didn't I just say that the Macbook will be the first to have the optical drive cut? The iMac will be next, but we're talking a transition of a few years here...

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Yes, floppy disks went away because they were replaced with optical disks. It's an evolution of a technology. You and I may be blinded by the speed of our 20Mb+ connections, but until broadband is ubiquitous ALL OVER THE WORLD, some form of portable media will always be with us.

Honestly, broadband adoption in the U.S. (Apple's largest market), and Asia (Apple's other large market) is very high. People with 56k connections aren't likely to be buying Macs anyway (note that Apple doesn't sell any Macs with modems.)

There have been discussions at the highest levels of the company about making laptops more personal, including discussions about the OLPC. Apple is looking to make laptops cheaper, smaller, and more durable, and in the end, replace desktops entirely. We've finally reached the point where new computers aren't all just about adding more processing power and making them more convenient. Moving to laptops entirely will be a much larger transition, but Apple sees wireless internet as the replacement for the optical drive.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

I could see optical disks being replaced with disposable flash drives once that becomes economically viable however.

The internet is the real replacement. Microsoft Office is what... 300... 400 megabytes? On a cable connection, that would only take 5-10 minutes to download. It would take longer to get through the checkout line at the Apple Store.

Just like Apple forced people to stop distributing stuff on floppy, Apple will force people to stop distributing things on optical disc.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Oh lord this is getting painful. Now that HD-DVD is gone all disks should be.

Here is news for ya... disks are going going away to downloads for at least 5 years. That is a lot of years to make lots of money on disks.

How often do you think your average consumer uses an optical disk?

I'm telling you Apple is looking at getting rid of optical disk drives. If you don't believe me, that's fine. Just remember I'll be quoting everything you have written here when Apple releases their first mainstream optical driveless machines.

Originally Posted by Face Ache 

I'm not listening to tech advice or prophesy from anyone who bought a HD-DVD drive.

Fortunately for you I didn't buy an HD-DVD drive.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I'm telling you Apple is looking at getting rid of optical disk drives. If you don't believe me, that's fine.

I didn't say they don't want to or they won't I know they will. Point is either way they are going to have an external one that might as well be DVD for now and BR down the road.

Apple might have a laptop next week without one but that doesn't mean they still won't be mainstream for many years.

Optical disk is here for at least 5 more years.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Holy cow, BR computer reader for only $200!

Finally the $200 Sony Blu-ray drive of the PC - Engadget HD

It would look great watching movies on the 30" Apple LCD's.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

I didn't say they don't want to or they won't I know they will. Point is either way they are going to have an external one that might as well be DVD for now and BR down the road.

An external drive would be meant as a stop-gap, much like the external floppy drives were.

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Apple might have a laptop next week without one but that doesn't mean they still won't be mainstream for many years.

You're right. They'd only be shipping a mainstream consumer laptop without a optical drive.

Seriously, how often do you think your average consumer uses a optical drive?

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Optical disk is here for at least 5 more years.

For Pros? Sure.

[Helmling]

Originally Posted by goMac 

How often do you think your average consumer uses an optical disk?

Um, every frickin' day!?! What're you talking about?

[Helmling]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

Yes and extremely well.

I just tried a comparison on the same movie running simultaneously on my Mac mini and my PS3 (both going through HDMI into my HDTV) and I really couldn't see any difference.

(For the curious, I have two copies of Serenity--regular and collector's edition.)

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Um, every frickin' day!?! What're you talking about?

Are you going to expand on that thought and say what sorts of things they would use an optical drive for?

[starman]

Optical drives aren't going away anytime soon.

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Seriously, how often do you think your average consumer uses a optical drive?



For Pros? Sure.

No, consumers are exactly the ones which will be holding back. I am on the bleeding edge of technology, downloading HD content to my media centre - yet I still use optical disks. Was it easier getting the entire box set of Six Feet Under in the mail than downloading it on my 22Mbit connection? Damn straight!

Even broadband as it stands today is inadequate for high-quality delivery of either software or video.

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Are you going to expand on that thought and say what sorts of things they would use an optical drive for?

Music. Video. Software. Games.


Have a look out in the real world some time. Has the grief of backing the wrong horse has really blinded you to reality this much?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

No, consumers are exactly the ones which will be holding back. I am on the bleeding edge of technology, downloading HD content to my media centre - yet I still use optical disks. Was it easier getting the entire box set of Six Feet Under in the mail than downloading it on my 22Mbit connection? Damn straight!

Sure, but we're talking about a company that runs a media store. They don't want you buying things on DVD, they want you buying TV shows from iTunes.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Even broadband as it stands today is inadequate for high-quality delivery of either software or video.

Seriously? Many companies very successfully distribute software online, notably Steam.

[Helmling]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Are you going to expand on that thought and say what sorts of things they would use an optical drive for?

Let's see, today I've used optical drives to burn photos onto a CD to take to Walgreens and to run a DVD. There's also a CoD2 CD sitting beside my keyboard that has only gone unused because of a New Year's Resolution.

Sure I can see a day when all of those functions are all online and we don't need opticals anymore, but that day isn't tomorrow.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Music.

Apple already runs a online music store.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Video.

Apple already runs an online video store.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Software.

There are already many companies that distribute software online.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Games.

Seriously? It should already be obvious that Apple is not a big fan of Macintosh games... but Aspyr is already working on an online gaming store. (Not to mention there is the widely successful Steam.)

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Have a look out in the real world some time. Has the grief of backing the wrong horse has really blinded you to reality this much?

My position hasn't changed at all. Why do you think my reasoning behind backing HD-DVD was that I could pull the video off the disc?

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Let's see, today I've used optical drives to burn photos onto a CD to take to Walgreens and to run a DVD.

Costco lets you upload photos to them for printing. Not sure about Walgreens.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

There's also a CoD2 CD sitting beside my keyboard that has only gone unused because of a New Year's Resolution.

Steam already offers Call of Duty 2 for online purchase and download.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Sure I can see a day when all of those functions are all online and we don't need opticals anymore, but that day isn't tomorrow.

Nope, it's today.

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Apple already runs a online music store.



Apple already runs an online video store.



There are already many companies that distribute software online.



Seriously? It should already be obvious that Apple is not a big fan of Macintosh games... but Aspyr is already working on an online gaming store.



My position hasn't changed at all. Why do you think my reasoning behind backing HD-DVD was that I could pull the video off the disc?

You are talking extreme niche markets here. These are all limited to where broadband is penetrated / the US.

You will not see widespread applications for at least 5-10 years. Again, stop being blinded by your own bubble and start opening your eyes to the realities here.

Again, this is coming from one who is living in the same bubble as you. I download 40-100GB per month, but I'm not stupid enough to think that this has any impact on the general consumer markets in the near future.

You can't just take these tiny beginnings and extrapolate it to any sort of near future prognosis. It just doesn't work that way.

[starman]

goMac, seriously, you seem to fall off the edge so often, I wonder if you know what reality is.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

You are talking extreme niche markets here. These are all limited to where broadband is penetrated / the US.

68% of all U.S. internet connections were broadband in 2006.

Briefs: U.S. broadband usage up 28 percent in year

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

You will not see widespread applications for at least 5-10 years. Again, stop being blinded by your own bubble and start opening your eyes to the realities here.

iTunes is the 5th largest music store in the U.S. Steam has been distributing games for years. Napster, though illegal, was widely successful 8 years ago. You'd have to be blind not to see successful widespread applications.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Again, this is coming from one who is living in the same bubble as you. I download 40-100GB per month, but I'm not stupid enough to think that this has any impact on the general consumer markets in the near future.

Again, this is the same stuff that people said when Apple cut the floppy drive. Apple is a market changing company.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

It is almost to predictable that GoMac is taking the whole "optical is dead" path now that HD-DVD lost.

The title of this thread is "blu-ray/hd-dvd... who is winning?".
The poll shows blu-ray in the lead. Just like in reality.

HD-DVD is dead. If you don't think so stick to that subject.

[ghporter]

I'll believe either one is dead when the top end players are being sold off for pennies on the dollar. Until then, the game is still on. It is just not time to buy an HD-DVD player unless you have a bunch of HD-DVD discs already. At least for now. This is the sort of issue that it's best not to hold your breath over...

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

It is almost to predictable that GoMac is taking the whole "optical is dead" path now that HD-DVD lost.

It's always been my position. We had this same conversation before, long before Warner left the HD-DVD camp and HD-DVD was alive and well. This has nothing to do with HD-DVD losing because I had already went through all of this when it was a stalemate. Only someone like you would associate my position with the death of HD-DVD when in reality they're not connected at all.

The reality is there is nothing your average consumer needs an optical drive for, just as there wasn't anything your average consumer needed a floppy drive for. Heck, 10 years ago Apple shipped Macs with a read only cd drive and the world didn't end. People still got their files out of their machines.

Most of the services that require optical drives compete with Apple. Walgreens competes with iPhoto, CD's compete with iTunes, DVD's compete with iTunes... It's also better for Apple's business if they force consumers to adopt online sources.

[- - e r i k - -]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Again, this is the same stuff that people said when Apple cut the floppy drive. Apple is a market changing company.

Except cutting the floppy disk was not the market changing move you think it is. Optical disks were already mature by then and floppies were at the end of their lifespan. Optical disks were simply a higher capacity floppy.

The situation is nowhere near the same with broadband.

[- - e r i k - -]

Believe me, I will welcome the death of the optical media with open arms (as I have stated dozens of pages back), it just won't happen now or in the next five years.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

Except cutting the floppy disk was not the market changing move you think it is. Optical disks were already mature by then and floppies were at the end of their lifespan. Optical disks were simply a higher capacity floppy.

Mature? You couldn't write information to a CD! Apple was selling computers where the only way to get information off was a 56k modem. The reason people still used floppy disks was because they were the only medium you could actually write your files to.

To make things even better, the iMac only shipped with USB 1.0, making a CD burner an expensive and bad option.

Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - 

The situation is nowhere near the same with broadband.

Why is this so surprising? This all started with the iMac in 1997. Back then Apple was pushing the internet as the next big way to move information around. CD-R wasn't even in their product strategy. After all, the iMac is the internetMac.

[- - e r i k - -]

*doublepost*

[Lateralus]

If the HD battle is indeed over, I still think it will be quite a while before we see Blu-ray come out as the winner with an absolute certainty.

The reason I say that is the simple fact that I can't see Paramount doing a 180 on their HD-DVD exclusivity anywhere near this soon after having gone exclusive in the first place.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see continuously strong HD-DVD support from both Paramount and Universal through the end of 2008. And if we do, it may serve to, at the very least, encourage additional support for HD-DVD that may indeed keep the battle going for some time.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Mature? You couldn't write information to a CD!

Uh, yeah you could. I got my first burner around '97.

[starman]

Originally Posted by Lateralus 

If the HD battle is indeed over, I still think it will be quite a while before we see Blu-ray come out as the winner with an absolute certainty.

The reason I say that is the simple fact that I can't see Paramount doing a 180 on their HD-DVD exclusivity anywhere near this soon after having gone exclusive in the first place.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see continuously strong HD-DVD support from both Paramount and Universal through the end of 2008. And if we do, it may serve to, at the very least, encourage additional support for HD-DVD that may indeed keep the battle going for some time.

The only reason why they'd support it is because they HAVE to.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

Uh, yeah you could. I got my first burner around '97.

When did the first iMac with either a bus fast enough to feed a CD burner, or a internal CD burner come out?

Apple shipped consumer machines for quite a while with no way to get files off except for the modem/ethernet.

[Helmling]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Costco lets you upload photos to them for printing. Not sure about Walgreens.



Steam already offers Call of Duty 2 for online purchase and download.



Nope, it's today.

But you're wrong. Note who your original question related to: The Average User.

We're not that guy. We're chatting on a technology forum. We're geeks. Yes, I could do most things without my optical drive, but not everyone would be comfortable with that and not everything is possible. Take my examples: I played the movie Serenity on my Mac mini's DVD drive. It's not on iTunes. Yes, CoD2 is on Steam, but I'm on--surprise--a Mac. Steam isn't. (please don't say I could run it through parallels or crossover or something--we're talking about AVERAGE user applications) The photos I was talking about I was burning for my sister-in-law to take to the store. I had to talk her through drag and dropping out of iPhoto for Pete's sake, I'm not going to complicate things by trying to step her through some tedious online upload.

Someday, sure. But as someone else pointed out: the optical drive will be with us for some time to come. Will Mac be the first to ditch it? Probably, but then look how far ahead of the curve with phasing out floppy discs they were. Some PC's still come with disc drives.

[exca1ibur]

My first burner was a 2X in 1994, I used it on my Powermac 6100/60.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Helmling 

But you're wrong. Note who your original question related to: The Average User.

Honestly, probably 80% of the non techie people I know use iTunes. The people who use CD's continue to do so out of habit. iTunes is the world's 5th largest music store. I'm sure quite a few average users use it.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Yes, CoD2 is on Steam, but I'm on--surprise--a Mac.

Again, you assume Apple cares about Mac gaming? As I said, Aspyr is working on their online store. IIRC it was announced almost two years ago. With Steam as my example, it is technically feasible. I was buying games on Steam 3 years ago, and presently many of your average gamers use it.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Steam isn't. (please don't say I could run it through parallels or crossover or something--we're talking about AVERAGE user applications)

I actually do run Steam in Crossover, but that's besides the point. I'm not sure your average user is going to play that many games... But again, Aspyr is working on gaming downloads, and it has been technically possible for a while.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

The photos I was talking about I was burning for my sister-in-law to take to the store. I had to talk her through drag and dropping out of iPhoto for Pete's sake, I'm not going to complicate things by trying to step her through some tedious online upload.

Well, this is a perfect example. Instead of having your sister learn how to burn things to CD, there are many available iPhoto plugins to submit your photos to a photo printing place online. In fact, iPhoto has a built in way to submit photos to Kodak for printing. Your example shows how cumbersome a optical drive is for the end user.

Originally Posted by Helmling 

Someday, sure. But as someone else pointed out: the optical drive will be with us for some time to come. Will Mac be the first to ditch it? Probably, but then look how far ahead of the curve with phasing out floppy discs they were. Some PC's still come with disc drives.

The Mac is always a platform that's ahead of the curve. I'm sure PC's will hold onto optical drives for a while more, but Apple is going to lead the market, not follow it.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by exca1ibur 

My first burner was a 2X in 1994, I used it on my Powermac 6100/60.

Which is great and all, but that was a SCSI burner. The iMac shipped with USB 1.0 only, which is too slow really for a CD burner. SCSI was faster than USB, making the iMac somewhat of a downgrade for people who used external drives.