As it does every quarter,
a collection of analysts from traditional Wall Street as well as independent firms have been rounded up by
Fortune's Philip Elmer-Dewitt to put together a consensus estimate on Apple's iPhone sales for the fiscal third quarter for the company, which ended on June 30. While results will be officially reported by Apple
in a week's time, the consensus already sets a record-breaking 49.4 million units marker for the quarter.
The iPhone, as Apple's top-selling product, is such an area of focus for most analysts that all other sales -- including iPads and the Mac line -- are ignored when it comes to setting stock expectations or reporting on the financial health of the company. The Cupertino company's success in recent quarters in increasing China sales and converting Android users to the larger-screened iPhone 6 line has caused the iPhone to shatter expectations since its release late last year, though curiously the stock has stagnated of late.
Importantly, the iPhone has surpassed expectations quite dramatically as it goes through its current life-cycle. Because the product is refreshed yearly, holiday-season sales (the quarter immediately following the new model's release) are the biggest, with the first quarter of the new year subsequently seeing a big drop. By the time summer rolls around, sales flatten as buyers anticipate the new model.
This hasn't happened this year, at least to the extent it normally does. While Apple did report few sales in fiscal Q2 than during the Christmas buying season, the number of units sold -- 61 million -- handily beat expectations of a sharper drop following the record 74 million units sold in fiscal Q1. The sales figures for fiscal Q3 will also likely be below the Q2 number, but this time analysts are predicting a softer drop from the year-ago quarter, forecasting a consensus of nearly 50 million units that many say may still be too low.
Even if the analysts' consensus turns out to be on target, sales of the iPhone would be up nearly 40 percent from the year-ago quarter, where just 35.2 million units were sold. As usual, the Wall Street "pro" analysts' estimate average, at 48.7 million, were lower than the "independent" analyst consensus guess of 50.7 million. Individual predictions ranged from a low of 43.5 million units (from Oppenheimer) to 56.28 million (from Credit Suisse). Traditionally, the more-upbeat independents have done better (collectively) than the Wall Street pros.
FBR estimates of AAPL performance
One analyst for
FBR Capital Markets, whose estimate for iPhones sales last quarter comes in at 49 million, believes continued good news from China and growing performance on Apple's subsidiary fronts (such as Apple Pay, the Apple Watch, and Apple Music) will allow Apple to ride out the usual summer slump smoothly, and position the company strongly for both this year's holiday season and 2016. Daniel Ives of FBR, reports
AppleInsider, has set a 12-month target price for AAPL of $185, which would put the market value of the company at over $1 trillion by this time next year.