[Eug]

Yeah, it's just a rumour, but it's pretty damn good rumour now. The Apple bloggers and the newspapers have "confirmed" it, and there are even part sightings for it now out there in internetland.



WSJ: Apple Prepares Mass Production of Smaller Tablet -Sources

Bloomberg: Apple Said to Plan Smaller IPad to Vie With Google Nexus

Daring Fireball: Thinking This iPad Mini Thing Even Througher

Jim Dalrymple: iPhone 5 and iPad mini events

---

The favoured specs are that it's a 7.85" 4:3 1024x768 iPad, which means it would have a 163 ppi screen. That's way, way lower than The New iPad at 264 ppi, and considerably lower than even the Google Nexus 7, which is 216 ppi at 7" and 1280x800. OTOH, 163 ppi will be decent, and a distinct improvement over the iPad 2's 132 ppi, as long as developers have appropriate sizes for fonts.

If 7.85" as suspected, that's significantly larger than the Nexus 7.



The Nexus 7 weighs 340 grams. My guess is a 7.85" iPad mini will be in a similar weight class at well over 300 grams, but some are predicting it could be less than 300 grams.

The bezel size may not be the same as The New iPad. Why? because a fat side bezel would make the overall size of the iPad mini fat too. I can actually put my Nexus 7 in my back pocket. The screen size the Nexus 7 is about 150.8 mm (5.936") long by 94.2 mm (3.71") wide. The screen size of a 20 cm diagonal 4x3 iPad mini would be 160 mm by 120 mm wide. The Nexus 7 measures 120 mm wide overall, including 26 mm of bezel and edge, so in other words the width of the entire Nexus 7 is the width of the rumoured iPad mini's screen alone. To make it seem small in general and to have it fit better in (big) pockets, it would make sense for it to look more like an iPod touch in terms of bezel ratios. A good overall width for the iPad mini would be about 132 mm or 5.2 inches. That's roughly 0.5" wider than the Nexus 7.



The dock connector will be different. This giant dock connector we currently are saddled with never made much sense to me, esp. for mobile devices. Its rumoured markedly reduced size makes a lot of sense, as is its MagSafe-like orientation independence.

Front FaceTime camera only. Forget the back camera. Almost nobody uses it anyway. Waste of money and space.

SoC should be dual-core A5, made on a 32 nm process, ironically by Samsung.

Minimum memory size 16 GB.

WiFi only (802.11n, not 802.11ac), and WiFi + LTE, using the new nano-SIM form factor.



I like the idea of the headphone jack be on the bottom by the way. Having it on the opposite side of the dock connector always seemed kludgy to me.

I think pricing could start at US$249 if it really costs Apple well under $200 to make, although some are predicting $299.

Tech-Thoughts: iPad Mini BOM Estimate: $299 Price Looks Likely



A $249 price tag with a $189.32 BOM would give a pretty decent gross margin of 24% for the entry level model. Margins would be higher for higher end models. However, $299 does seem like a nice round number to being the pricing, given the iPod touch is already $199.

The release date is probably going to be later than the iPhone 5, so well before Xmas, but not September.
Insert white space, just because.

[Eug]

Forgot to mention: I think it will have 512 MB RAM, not 1 GB like the 3rd gen iPad has. That would put the iPad mini on par with the iPhone 4S and the iPad 2 (which Apple is currently selling as the entry level model iPad).

Thinking about product lines and pricing again... I wonder if Apple will continue to sell the iPad 2 after the iPad mini is released. My guess is yes. The iPad 2 occupies a different price class.

$299 - iPad mini 16 GB WiFi
$429 - iPad mini 16 GB WiFi + LTE

$399 - iPad 2 16 GB WiFi
$529 - iPad 2 16 GB WiFi + 3G

$499 - iPad 3 16 GB WiFi
$599 - iPad 3 32 GB WiFi
$699 - iPad 3 64 GB WiFi
$629 - iPad 3 16 GB WiFi + LTE
$729 - iPad 3 32 GB WiFi + LTE
$829 - iPad 3 64 GB WiFi + LTE

Forbes:

[Eug]

It must be destiny...

I mistyped a link, and the autofill automagically took me to macro.org, which happens to be the blog of Instapaper's creator: Predicting the “iPad Mini” internals

---

I saw two curious entries in Instapaper’s device stats today: one iPad2,5 and one iPad2,6.

(There were also a few iPhone5,1 devices, but that’s not a surprise — that’s almost certainly next month’s new GSM iPhone.)

These device models, as reported by the OS, could be faked by a jailbreaker with enough free time. But I’ve never had a device show up there that didn’t end up being a real, about-to-be-released Apple device.

The iPad2,5 and iPad2,6 could be boring: GSM and CDMA versions of the die-shrunk iPad 2 so the shrink isn’t only available on the Wi-Fi model, bringing lower costs to the other iPad 2 configurations that are still for sale. But now, even later in its lifecycle, that would be a pretty strange move.

The much more likely explanation is that iPad2,5 and iPad2,6 are the new “iPad Mini” in Wi-Fi and GSM, and I haven’t recorded the likely iPad2,7 CDMA version yet.

If so, this suggests that the iPad Mini is, effectively, an iPad 2: an A5 with 512 MB of RAM and enough GPU power to drive the Gruber Display, but not a Retina Display.

It’s a textbook Tim Cook supply-chain move: selling the last generation’s hardware at a lower price point to expand marketshare.

---

This makes a lot of sense, and agrees with what I suggested above. Basically it's a 7.85" 1024x768 iPad using the 3G iPhone's screen pixel density of 163 ppi, with the new iPad 2's 32 nm A5 dual-core Cortex A9 in it. It would have the same 512 MB RAM, but it would also get a new dock connector, and use a nano-SIM.

If that's true, my iPad 2's lifespan will be that much longer on the resale market, because Apple should continue to target iOS for that tech, even if they don't continue selling the iPad 2 after the iPad mini is released. Mind you, that's based on tech arguments. If Apple kills the iPad 2 after the iPad mini is released, then they could obsolete it in terms of iOS support earlier than the iPad mini simply for marketing reasons.

Insert necessary white space

[Eug]

Bloomberg: Apple Said to Use AU Optronics, LG Display Screens in Mini IPad

Apple Inc. (AAPL) will use screens from AU Optronics Corp. (2409) and LG Display Co. (034220) for a smaller version of the iPad to be released in October, according to four people familiar with the plans.

TPK Holding Co. (3673) and Yeh Cheng Technology, a subsidiary of Foxconn Technology Group, will supply the lamination coating for the device that will measure 7.85 inches diagonally, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans haven’t been made public.

---

This is different from the iPhone 5, which is supposedly Sharp.
I wonder who made the iPhone 3G's screen.

[SierraDragon]

Very nice analysis Eug, thank you. Maybe freudling will look at it and throw up .

If the released product is close to what you describe they will sell like hotcakes if priced reasonably. And I think Apple will take advantage of their supply chain and keep prices low enough that no competitor can produce a better product at the price point without losing money. Of course Amazon may keep loss-leading hardware and Google will keep giving away their OS, but IMO it is good policy in an explosive market for Apple to keep prices tight to hold share.

Most important by far is for Apple to maintain top quality on all their devices.

And Apple can add variety as the market develops. All kinds of features can be added or subtracted to allow price point variations if/when appropriate.

-Allen

[mduell]

The BOM estimate seems pretty high:
$50 for a low-res 8" LCD panel?
Nearly $1/GB for flash?

I'd guess the direct costs will come in closer to $150, allowing for a $249 retail price with 40% gross margin.

[P]

$249 makes a lot of sense for a price point. They could go even lower with an 8 GB version w/o camera.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by mduell 

The BOM estimate seems pretty high:
$50 for a low-res 8" LCD panel?
Nearly $1/GB for flash?
I'd guess the direct costs will come in closer to $150, allowing for a $249 retail price with 40% gross margin.

Originally Posted by P 

$249 makes a lot of sense for a price point. They could go even lower with an 8 GB version w/o camera.

But why is everyone claiming the 8 GB 7" Kindle Fire and 8 GB 7" Nexus 7 are loss leaders or at best break even at $199 then?

And I can attest to the mediocre build quality of the Nexus 7. I love the overall design and feel of the unit, and the usability of the OS and apps (although I did root the thing to gain stuff like MKV playback off external USB flash media). However, my first one had a screen lift issue, and the frame recently started clicking when I pushed down on the left side. So I returned it yesterday and got a new one. No clicking, but it still has a screen lift issue, so back that one goes too. Some people have done their own tear downs and they say the internals just don't seem very well designed. It sounds like they're a couple of notches lower in engineering and/or manufacturing QA as compared to most Apple products. I say most, not all, though, because we've seen bad issues in Apple products too, like the cracking iPhone 3G and 3GS housing near the power button.

In any case the more I think about it the more I think that US$249 is achievable but the absolute minimum, with US$299 perhaps a better target for Apple, especially since they're shipping it with a bigger screen.

[SierraDragon]

IMO pricing can be $249 or lower and should be. I would like to see the lowest end alternative hit $199 or lower; the Amazon Fire introduction next week will give Apple a chance to fine tune low end pricing. Reasons:

I stick with my argument that midsize will be a huge space with explosive growth. And, in a rapidly growing market space establishing market share early provides large payoffs in the future.

IMO in the current midsize evolution grabbing share early is particularly important because of the over-riding importance of ecosystems. Once buyers gets involved with a particular ecosystem they tend to stay there; ecosystem inertia if you like.

Today the big midsize tablet players are really building ecosystem share (desktops, laptops, tablets, music players, phones) for the future. Actual tablet sales are just a metric really.

Midsize tablets are an essential place to build ecosystem share if my premise regarding rapid growth turns out to be true (some here do argue the opposite). To that end I say midsize tablets should be priced very very tight. Not below cost (which I would call inappropriate for anti-trust reasons) but with very small margins.

So my 02:

• Apple needs a good quality relatively thin and light product. Quality is essential.

• Pricing should be very tight, small margins.

• The payoff for ecosystem share gains today will be huge in the future.


-Allen

[Eug]

I don't think razor thin margins would do anything for Apple except reduce profits. They would not make up the difference in profit through the increased volume.

[SierraDragon]

IMO success of each ecosystem (interaction among each entity's desktops, laptops, tablets, music players, phones, stores, etc.; probably via the cloud) will be essential for the future.

When multiple products all work together synergistically (especially via the cloud), as firms and individual buy new products they are inclined to stay within one ecosystem. My name for that is ecosystem inertia.

Today there is no dominance by any one ecosystem:

Microsoft via OS dominates desktop enterprise, is strong in game boxes but currently sells no computers and has repeatedly failed in mobile.
Apple is a leader in the profitable end of computer sales.
Apple dominates large tablet sales and OS but currently has no midsize tablets.
Google dominates search and leads smartphone/midsize free OS distribution.
Amazon dominates in store competence and overall internet product sales.

No firm has a fully-together ecosystem yet but there are various good starts. My hope is that all four of the above (plus unlikely RIM) each develop and maintain solid competing ecosystems that interact well. If any one becomes totally dominant consumers lose.

Very very important is that regulators squelch anti-competitive back room deals early. Alliances and deals should be constructive (e.g. MS/Apple cross-licensing) not destructive (e.g. MS forcing partners to install I.E.).

IMO overall ecosystem share/profitability is what will define success in the future. And who really cares about the past?

-Allen

[P]

Originally Posted by Eug 

But why is everyone claiming the 8 GB 7" Kindle Fire and 8 GB 7" Nexus 7 are loss leaders or at best break even at $199 then?

I don't actually think that they will get all the way down to $199, but they might get to $229 or something.

Also note that everyone had big problems getting the first post-iPad tablets down to $499, and they have tried for years to get an MBA-equivalent down to $999.

[Eug]

Well, I'd be shocked if the introductory price point is lower than US$249, and wouldn't at all be surprised if the price is $299. I'd be surprised if it was $300 or higher though.

$249 would be ideal IMO, but Apple would still sell a sheetload of them at $299.

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by P 

...note that everyone had big problems getting the first post-iPad tablets down to $499, and they have tried for years to get an MBA-equivalent down to $999.

True, but that was the other guys trying to meet Apple's pricing without having Apple's supply chain. In this case the competition already has products/price points.

IMO Apple's supply chain gives Apple the advantage of being able to build a better product at any given price point. Right now I think they should use that extra margin to build extra share rather than extra profits.

Also Apple badly needs to devote additional resources to making the ecosystem work better. Currently the concept is good but the implementation is disjointed. And customer service on the ecosystem side is not up to Apple standards (e.g. the MobileMe fiasco. Apple literally told long term pro customers to p*ss off).

[anthology123]

I can't believe the iPad 2 will still be sold if an iPad Mini comes out. It's already confusing enough to their core audience to have an iPad with a higher number not be the better machine. At most it willl be another year, and the iPad 2 will be history when the iPad 4 comes out and the iPad 3 (new iPad with Retina Display) will become the economy model.

[Tallest Skil]

Originally Posted by P 

$249 makes a lot of sense for a price point. They could go even lower with an 8 GB version w/o camera.

It's already not going to sell; do we really want it to not sell to ANYONE? This is Apple, here…

Originally Posted by anthology123 

I can't believe the iPad 2 will still be sold if an iPad Mini comes out. It's already confusing enough to their core audience to have an iPad with a higher number not be the better machine. At most it willl be another year, and the iPad 2 will be history when the iPad 4 comes out and the iPad 3 (new iPad with Retina Display) will become the economy model.

How is it confusing to see a model of something and then see the new model of something? Is "new" too complex a concept for consumers? And what makes you think that they'll drop the iPad 2? They didn't drop the iPhone 3GS.

Next year I see the 4th, 3rd, and 2nd iPads on sale simultaneously, absolutely destroying every other tablet on the market (as thought the iPad doesn't do that now with 95% use marketshare).

the new iPad: $499
iPad: $399
iPad 2: $299

No one buying the older models of Apple products is doing so without knowing what they are. And to solidify said knowledge, Apple has always had charts where specs are compared.

[ajprice]

Seeing the new iPod Touch getting the colour options at the announcement, I think the iPad mini is going to get the same treatment. Black metal with the black face, silver and coloured metal with the white face.

[Eug]

I wonder when is the best marketing time for the iPad mini to be announced. 3-4 weeks after the iPhone ship date? If it is announced mid October, with a ship date near Halloween (but not too near Halloween), that would probably leave enough time for the iPhone 5 press hype to die down, but also enough time for killer sales numbers before Xmas.

[SierraDragon]

Agreed.

And there are a few folks like me who are waiting to see what the communication and camera capabilities of a mini tablet might be before choosing whether to upgrade 4s to the iP5 or to get a mini tablet. The iP4s is already a very good product though, so personally I would not buy either without the opportunity to first test both extensively against the 4s running iOS6 and with all under 4G LTE.

-Allen

[Eug]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

Agreed.
And there are a few folks like me who are waiting to see what the communication and camera capabilities of a mini tablet might be before choosing whether to upgrade 4s to the iP5 or to get a mini tablet.

You can get both the phone and the mini tablet. However, if I were in your shoes, I'd stick with the 4S and get the tablet. I'm not in your shoes though, as I have the much slower iPhone 4.

[MacinTommy]

To help fuel the iPad Mini rumors.

http://www.otterbox.com/ipad-mini/ipad-mini,default,pg.html

Why would a huge case company have "rumors" on their own website...? I feel like they recieve dimensions from Apple before the rest of us. Thoughts?

[Eug]

Here is a video of the iPad mini that showed up in spy shots:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVmUXpPRNuo

[MacinTommy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Here is a video of the iPad mini that showed up in spy shots:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RVmUXpPRNuo

Detailed dummy!

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by MacinTommy 

Why would a huge case company have "rumors" on their own website...?

- To build interest in their IMO excellent brand.

- To remind folks to look at Otter for a MiniPad case or any other case.

- To collect email addresses for future spam.

- To condition folks to going to their website for product info and rumors.

Note that they avoid NDA issues by simply capturing rumors from other sites and provide zero info themselves.

I used an Otterbox Commuter for the iP3 and the now on the 4s. It outlasts all the previous cases that I beat on by better than 4 to 1.

-Allen

[Eug]

http://ukrainianiphone.com/02/10/2012/87016

Back panel:



Note it says "iPad" instead of "iPad mini".



Screen:



Front panel:

[anthology123]

The interesting thing is this iPad mini will clearly cannibalize Apple's own product market as well as the others. The full iPad will suffer the biggest sales hit, while the iPod touch will also suffer sales hits as well.The question is, will the razor thin profit of the iPad mini make up for the loss of profits of the iPad 10"? And will pricing the iPad mini the along the same price lines as the iPod Touch effectively marginalize the iPod Touch to a point that it would no longer be profitable to sell such a device anymore?

[Eug]

Some random points:

Apple already sells the iPad 2 at less than iPad 3 pricing. Once the iPad mini lands, the iPad 2 would probably disappear completely.

By most guesstimates, the margin on the iPad mini won't be razor thin. If it sells for $299, they could be making as much as 50% margin on the thing. If not 50%, then perhaps 40%, which is still very decent. Yes, it's priced less, but the component pricing is a lot less too, particularly the screen.

It will cannibalize some iPod touch and some iPad sales. However, if the margin on the unit is still good, and if it increases overall sales, then Apple still profits. The key is to have a broad product mix to target a broad range of customer types and price ranges, to maximize sales and profit. Apple used to only have the 15" PowerBook. Now they have expanded to the 11" MacBook Air, 13" MacBook Air, 13" MacBook Pro, 15" MacBook Pro, and Retina MacBook Pro.

[ajprice]

That back casing is black. If its a production part, then it's going to be the iPod touch colours (my post further up) or iPhone 5 colours (all black or silver back/white front). I don't think it's going to be just a choice of a silver back and black or white fronts like the iPad 2 and 3.

[Eug]

Wall Street Journal: iPad mini mass production has begun

Apple Inc.'s Asian component suppliers have started mass production of a new tablet computer smaller than the current iPad, people with knowledge of the situation said, as the Silicon Valley company tries to stay competitive against rivals such as Google Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. that are offering smaller, less-expensive alternatives to the iPad.

Two of the people said the smaller tablet will have a 7.85-inch liquid-crystal display with a lower resolution compared with the latest iPad model that came out in March.

[P]

The Journal doesn't print rumors unless someone well-known leaked it off the record, so this sounds very legitimate.

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by anthology123 

The interesting thing is this iPad mini will clearly cannibalize Apple's own product market as well as the others. The full iPad will suffer the biggest sales hit, while the iPod touch will also suffer sales hits as well.The question is, will the razor thin profit of the iPad mini make up for the loss of profits of the iPad 10"? And will pricing the iPad mini the along the same price lines as the iPod Touch effectively marginalize the iPod Touch to a point that it would no longer be profitable to sell such a device anymore?

Yes all the iPads and the Touch cannibalize each other significantly. In particular I expect the midsize to cannibalize the full size iPad a lot, but so what? Good marketing is to provide consumers what they want, and Apple is a great marketer.

The overall market for tablets is huge and growing, and (although Freudling has been arguing against me for a year+ on this) midsize is a very, very important size in the category. Servicing the midsize segment will dramatically increase Apple's total tablet sales in spite of however much cannibalizing happens.

My 02: To best succeed the first midsize Apple tablet product should be good quality and relatively thin and light, and I expect it will be.

-Allen

[MacinTommy]

I'm 98% sure this is the iPad I've been waiting for.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by SierraDragon 

The overall market for tablets is huge and growing, and (although Freudling has been arguing against me for a year+ on this) midsize is a very, very important size in the category.

So, is he completely gone? We had a bet going. With $100 on the line, I bet that Apple would release an iPad mini before the end of 2013 (possibly in 2012 but for sure by 2013), but it looks like I won't be able to collect.

[MacinTommy]

It's hard for me to think that the mythical iPad mini will be as expensive/cheap as the 64GB iPod touch... But I guess they could do this due to larger components just like laptops vs. desktops?? Am I completely off base with this?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by P 

The Journal doesn't print rumors unless someone well-known leaked it off the record, so this sounds very legitimate.

Yeah, very reliable. IIRC, they were also one of the publications that claimed Apple was switching from PPC to Intel, something I couldn't really fathom at the time, given the huge installed base of PPC software (and of course Mac OS X).

Originally Posted by MacinTommy 

It's hard for me to think that the mythical iPad mini will be as expensive/cheap as the 64GB iPod touch... But I guess they could do this due to larger components just like laptops vs. desktops?? Am I completely off base with this?

Bigger is more expensive, but so is small. However, medium often may be cheapest.

A 7-8" iPad mini has the advantage of not being as cramped as an iPod touch, and not needing the very big high rez screens like the retina iPad.

1024x768 on a 7.85 screen would be 163 ppi. That's certainly not anything close to retina, but it's actually not terrible either, considering it's much higher ppi than the retina MacBook Pro. It's also the same resolution as the iPad 2, but in a much smaller space, which makes for a moderate pixel density, a big improvement in pixel density over the iPad 2.

That said, I'd like to eventually see 1440x900 on a 7" tablet. Tablet OSes seem to handle high pixel densities much better than desktop and laptop computers.

[SierraDragon]

Originally Posted by MacinTommy 

It's hard for me to think that the mythical iPad mini will be as expensive/cheap as the 64GB iPod touch... But I guess they could do this due to larger components just like laptops vs. desktops?? Am I completely off base with this?

I agree. Where Apple compromises what (price, hardware, features, etc.) to meet the pricing in the midsize space will be interesting.

Personally I hope they include a 4G LTE option, and that would further complicate pricing choices.

[P]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Yeah, very reliable. IIRC, they were also one of the publications that claimed Apple was switching from PPC to Intel, something I couldn't really fathom at the time, given the huge installed base of PPC software (and of course Mac OS X).

That was the canonical example of Apple PR leaking it early to give it some time to sink in (and then basically commenting on it on stage - the "It's True!" slide). In this case I don't think that Apple leaked, but they certainly have a solid source.

[MacinTommy]

I predict the day of the announcement is when the new iTunes will be available for download.

[mattyb]

Well done Eug for the detail and analysis.

I just cannot believe that this thing will be as cheap as $250. This is Apple. Your cheapest iPad(2) is $400. I'll bet on at least $300 for the cheapest version.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by mattyb 

Well done Eug for the detail and analysis.
I just cannot believe that this thing will be as cheap as $250. This is Apple. Your cheapest iPad(2) is $400. I'll bet on at least $300 for the cheapest version.

Yeah, maybe $299.

[MacinTommy]

I'm still doubting the exsistence of this thing... Then again my name is Thomas for a reason (Bible Joke from an Atheist)

[Eug]

Well, Doubting Tommy, the WSJ now claims the parts suppliers Apple uses have gotten orders to make 10 million iPad minis jut in Q4.

http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/10/07/buzz-building-for-smaller-apple-tablet/

[MacinTommy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Well, Doubting Tommy, the WSJ now claims the parts suppliers Apple uses have gotten orders to make 10 million iPad minis jut in Q4.
http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2012/10/07/buzz-building-for-smaller-apple-tablet/

Well this does help but I'm always skeptical of any Apple product launches and the price point being so close to an iPod touch is just killing me.

If it does in fact exist, I hope it looks like this

[Eug]

I betcha it's just a mockup

[MacinTommy]

Something about the curves on all those mock-ups just don't look Apple-esque to me.

[Eug]

The design and curves remind me a little bit of the TiBook.

[MacinTommy]

I could see that. I guess what I mean is more current Apple design.

[Eug]

CNN | Fortune: Noon passes without an iPad mini invitation from Apple

I have to take the fall for passing along the rumor -- apparently false -- that invitations were set to go out on Oct. 10 for an iPad mini unveiling on Oct. 17.

My source was a major Apple (AAPL) investor who had heard it from three different sources. They were wrong about the timing. I was wrong to pass the tip along. I don't know what I was doing in the rumor business in the first place. Mea culpa.

[MacinTommy]

Well, well, well... perhaps it will stay a myth. Sort of like the iPhone nano/mini that was supposed to come out years ago.

[Eug]

All Things Digital: Launch date of iPad mini is Oct. 23