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Roe vs Wade Overturned (Page 3)
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Spheric Harlot
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Aug 4, 2022, 03:38 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
They also tried to pull a shenanigan by wording the yes/no options confusingly, and then sending fake texts to people telling them to vote the opposite.
I sincerely hope that’s illegal and ends those responsible up in jail.
     
Thorzdad
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Aug 4, 2022, 07:38 PM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
I sincerely hope that’s illegal and ends those responsible up in jail.
Oh, hell, no. It’s not illegal. It’s done all the time throughout the US.
     
Thorzdad
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Aug 10, 2022, 08:41 AM
 
     
reader50
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Aug 10, 2022, 02:28 PM
 
^^^ I'm not sure this is a valid example. Particularly as it happened before Roe was overturned.

The detective didn't mention anything about abortion in the FB data request. He listed skeletal remains of a child, without mentioning this child had never been born. Probably so FaceBook and others would not realize it was an abortion case.
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 12, 2022, 12:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Now it comes home to roost that the extremist opinion held by the majority of SCOTUS is and has been a minority opinion amongst the general population, including a sizable share of Republicans. And Republicans can face backlash when their simplistic draconic laws run counter to what the majority of the population thinks is moral.
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OreoCookie
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Aug 13, 2022, 10:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Man, does that annoy me. Right up there with naming laws, so it sounds like they do the opposite of what they do.
I agree, but despite that, the result more or less seems to mirror public opinion, doesn’t it? Even a substantial minority of Republicans, 38 % according to a recent Pew poll, are of the opinion that abortions should be legal in all or most cases. If you add to that the broad support amongst Democrats, and you’d get this outcome.

Now the chickens come home to roost for staunch “pro lifers”: their harsh policies were never representative of the majority of the population and as far as I know haven’t been for decades. They won a legal battle, but never made significant headway in terms of public support. I doubt that overly harsh laws with unintended and intended consequences will do much to win over people on the margins.
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Thorzdad
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Aug 14, 2022, 04:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Now the chickens come home to roost for staunch “pro lifers”: their harsh policies were never representative of the majority of the population and as far as I know haven’t been for decades. They won a legal battle, but never made significant headway in terms of public support. I doubt that overly harsh laws with unintended and intended consequences will do much to win over people on the margins.
They don’t really need public support. All they need are compliant legislators, and the religious right has been very successful at getting the right people into statehouses across the country. Add to that the aggressive gerrymandering done in those states by republicans, and things are going to be pretty bleak for a good long time.

Here in Indiana, the republican super-majority passed their own anti-abortion law a few weeks ago. It does have carve outs for health, safety, etc. But, as soon as it was signed, the fundies started making noise that they were coming back in the next legislative session to eliminate the carve-outs. By that time, they might decide to go after birth-control, too.
     
Waragainstsleep
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Aug 14, 2022, 07:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
They don’t really need public support. All they need are compliant legislators
I could be wrong but while they have compliant legislators to enact anti-abortion laws, I think the public support is required to keep those new laws in place. The Dems will probably look at that Kansas result and wonder if they can use it to drive a bigger than usual majority in the mid-terms.Or they will if they have any sense.
Can't imagine they will get the 67 they need to pass new amendments but if they can get near to 60 and take Trump out of the running by putting him in jail then I imagine a few more Republican Senators may be persuaded to break ranks and vote with them.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
OreoCookie
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Aug 14, 2022, 08:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
They don’t really need public support. All they need are compliant legislators, and the religious right has been very successful at getting the right people into statehouses across the country. Add to that the aggressive gerrymandering done in those states by republicans, and things are going to be pretty bleak for a good long time.
Let me offer a different point of view: smart Republicans are aware that this is going to be a losing issue. Look at De Santis, so far he has resisted putting more draconian abortion laws on the book, and boy, do we know that he is not above pushing cruel legislation. I think that De Santis is aware that a sizable portion of Republicans (across the US that is 38 %, I don’t know how that changes across states) are pro choice and reject these draconian abortion laws. You might counter and say that Florida has been purple-ish for many years now, and you’d be right.

But overall, we have at least one data point saying that the Dobbs decision motivates Democrats and independent voters to turn out. It is too early to call this a trend, but it is plausible that the Dobbs decision and the current SCOTUS becomes the equivalent Roe vs. Wade and the right’s obsession with SCOTUS in the past few decades. Time will tell, this is something that might need decades.
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Here in Indiana, the republican super-majority passed their own anti-abortion law a few weeks ago. It does have carve outs for health, safety, etc. But, as soon as it was signed, the fundies started making noise that they were coming back in the next legislative session to eliminate the carve-outs. By that time, they might decide to go after birth-control, too.
In the short term that sounds plausible. But in the long term, I don’t think Republicans can escape public opinion — especially if they go after e. g. birth control, I reckon a lot of people will have no sympathy for that even if they consider themselves “pro life”. A lot will also depend on what policies Republicans will choose to enact: their laws are no longer about posturing, they will have to contend with reality and real life. E. g. if abortion laws make it essentially impossible to get IVF treatment in your state, if 10-year-old rape victims are forced to carry to term or if a pregnant woman dies because she was denied life-saving treatment, this will erode support in the long term.
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reader50
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Aug 14, 2022, 08:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
The Dems will probably look at that Kansas result and wonder if they can use it to drive a bigger than usual majority in the mid-terms. Or they will if they have any sense.
I read somewhere that the DNC is recommending candidates hit their Republican opponents repeatedly over abortion positions. Political ads I've seen are doing so.
FiveThirtyEight has a good writeup on US abortion positions, and how they've changed over time.

A note when reading the Rep / Dem / Ind breakdowns in polling. This is usually about voting patterns, rather than precise party registration. Unless the poll (or story) says otherwise, individuals can be registered to any party. They're labeled by voting behavior:

Republican = 40% - those who reliably vote for Republican candidates.
Democrat = 40% - those who reliably vote for Democrat candidates.
Independent = 20% - those who make up their own minds about candidates.

The above breakdown (40/40/20) is the national average. It will differ from state to state.
     
MacNNFamous  (op)
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Aug 15, 2022, 12:50 PM
 
That's not true at all.

     
reader50
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Aug 15, 2022, 04:27 PM
 
Rob, your graph is actual party registration. Read my note again - I'm referring to voting patterns. What percentage of voters reliably vote R, D, or make up their minds on a case-by-case.

What people say: actual party registration graphs.
What people do: voting patterns used by pollsters to project election odds.
     
andi*pandi
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Aug 16, 2022, 11:00 AM
 
Independents frequently vote dem when there is no I on the ticket.
     
 
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