[Dork.]

fivethirtyeight.com had an interesting article today: based on its simulations, what would a McCain victory look like?

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/...ooks-like.html

This was the most common scenario, and Nate Silver talks about a few others in the article....


Of particular note is a statement he made at the end of the link:

In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624.

I think it's important to acknowledge that we're not really going to know who's going to win until the polls close, and anything can happen. But there are several identifiable scenarios that we can watch. Unlike the last few times, we ought to have a pretty good idea by 9:30 or so whether or not this will be competitive.

I think it also explains a bit of why McCain has been concentrating on Pennsylvania so much. Carrying that long list of states would be pretty much impossible for McCain. But if he does carry Pennsylvania, it will give him some margin to lose one or two of those smaller states on that list and still be over the top....

[Shaddim]

I'd rather see McCain elected over Barry, but that's a wager I'd never make.

[Doofy]

I'm gonna stick my neck out at this point and say that McCain will win it, by a whisker.
It's in TPTB's best interests to maintain a bunch of pissed-off lefties making lots of noise.

[ort888]

Tptb?

[Doofy]

Yes.

[macforray]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

I'd rather see McCain elected over Barry, but that's a wager I'd never make.

Ditto.

Even if Barry wins the Electoral vote, I hope the margin on the popular vote is close enough that he understands where the public stands. Unfortunately, I doubt it.

[ort888]

Is this secret right wing slang?

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Is this secret right wing slang?

No, it's secret people who can use Google slang.

[ort888]

rtbic

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ort888 

Tptb?

Titties per thousand boobies ?

Nah, doesn't make sense.

-t

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Titties per thousand boobies beers ?

There ya go.

[Ghoser777]

Who are these "powers that be?" Depending on who you ask, "the powers that be" have completely different agendas:
- Control the media coverage so Obama is elected
- Get McCain elected so the media has something to rail about
- Get McCain elected so Hillary can run in 2012
- Get Obama elected so the right side of the media has something to rail about

I guess that's the beautiful thing about "the powers that be:" they're everyone's boggie man.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

There ya go.

I knew you had the answer

-t

[Kerrigan]

I think that the 9% of undecideds may in fact represent a version of the so called Bradley Effect.

Back then, people lied about voting for Bradley because they were concerned about appearing racist. Today, people might lie about not having made up their mind because they are concerned about appearing conservative.

Not saying it will happen this way (I think Obama will win), but it is a hypothetical path to a McCain victory.

[Arkham_c]

Originally Posted by Kerrigan 

Today, people might lie about not having made up their mind because they are concerned about appearing conservative.
Not saying it will happen this way (I think Obama will win), but it is a hypothetical path to a McCain victory.

I wonder about this too. I guess we'll see tomorrow. I voted last week, so it's out of my hands.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by macforray 

Ditto.

Even if Barry wins the Electoral vote, I hope the margin on the popular vote is close enough that he understands where the public stands. Unfortunately, I doubt it.

Did Bush understand that? (2.4% in pop vote) I think not, I remember the word MANDATE a few times from him and around here, you need to eat your own soup when its your turn too buddy.

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by macforray 

Ditto.

Even if Barry wins the Electoral vote, I hope the margin on the popular vote is close enough that he understands where the public stands. Unfortunately, I doubt it.

I may be picking nits here, but isn't the outcome of the election, by definition, where the public stands? At least, the public who could be bothered to go out and vote?

If Barry wins by a healthy popular vote margin, wouldn't that mean that the Public stands with him? Maybe not you personally, but enough of the public to put him into office....

[SpaceMonkey]

I think he's talking about the Real Americans.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Dork. 

I may be picking nits here, but isn't the outcome of the election, by definition, where the public stands? At least, the public who could be bothered to go out and vote?

If Barry wins by a healthy popular vote margin, wouldn't that mean that the Public stands with him? Maybe not you personally, but enough of the public to put him into office....

That can't possibly make sense!

Haven't you heard, if the popular vote goes one way in 2000 and 2004 and another in 2006 and 2008 they are suddenly brainwashed/stupid/socialists/greedy/ignorant who have always had it in for the country. Just um.... ignore 2000 and 2004 voters, nothing to see there.

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey 

I think he's talking about the Real Americans.

DOH! I will make sure I turn away all fake Amurikans tomorrow :-(

[Dork.]

Originally Posted by SpaceMonkey 

I think he's talking about the Real Americans.

I see. My wingnut filter appears to be broken today. I think I should stay away from teh Internets for the next few days....