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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Boris Johnson vs The Queen and Parliament

Boris Johnson vs The Queen and Parliament (Page 2)
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reader50
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Sep 12, 2019, 11:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
... This time, the referendum is legally binding and asks voters to rank (1) Remain, (2) Brexit with May's deal or (3) Brexit without a deal. The EU grants another extension until after this referendum is held.
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
Oreo: your referenda would never fly here as it offers leavers two choices and clear victory for remain as every remain voter will simply vote as one bloc while the leave vote will be spilt.
Doc, I believe Oreo is referring to Ranked Choice Voting, where one can vote for preferred choices without a split-vote penalty on larger issues.

Under a ranked-choice vote, a choice wins if it gets over 50% of the vote. If no choice gets a majority, the choice that got the least votes is discarded. Those who voted for it have their votes added to their 2nd choice. Possible example (assuming 52% leave, 48% remain):

Round one:
48% Remain
32% Leave (May deal)
20% Leave (No deal)

No winner, so (Leave - no deal) is discarded. Assuming all No Deal voters chose (Leave - May deal) as their 2nd choice:

Round two:
52% Leave (May deal)
48% Remain

I like Ranked-choice Voting a lot. It lets people vote their hopes above their fears. You can vote for your personal best choice, and only after vote for the lesser scumbag with the better chance of winning.
     
OreoCookie
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Sep 12, 2019, 10:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by Doc HM View Post
Oreo: your referenda would never fly here as it offers leavers two choices and clear victory for remain as every remain voter will simply vote as one bloc while the leave vote will be spilt.
As reader50 pointed out, I think this can be avoided with ranked choice voting. Here, voters are asked to rank the three choices. A typical hard Brexiteer would probably choose

(1) No deal Brexit
(2) May's deal Brexit
(3) Remain

However, there may be a few voters who will have options (2) and (3) reversed:

(1) No deal Brexit
(2) Remain
(3) May's deal Brexit

Now the question is how large that group is? But if Remain is in the range 48~50 %, then it'd just need a few percent of the such unicorn voters. On the other hand, I understand that such voters are rare and just like the original referendum, I think this one will be too close to call.

Regarding whether or not to put May's deal to the vote: right now, I see no alternative. There is no UK government that would be able to negotiate something differently. So I don't think it'd be democratic to put another, mythical deal to the vote. Otherwise you wouldn't get out of this straightjacket as the current and even next government won't likely be able to negotiate something substantially different.

However, we could also think of another question in the referendum, an answer to “What relation would you like the UK to have with the EU in the future?” and give the options (1) Remain a member, (2) a No Deal Brexit or (3) the “Norway option”, for example. To be honest, this is the pertinent question to answer. (I'm quite sure the EU would be game for option (3), although that would have to be clarified, obviously.)
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 14, 2019, 08:36 PM
 
I'm not sure what a referendum vote will look like this time exactly but I heard some positive thoughts on the current status of things.

With the DUP diminished, a changed deal is possible for the first time but while Johnson has no majority, the 'rebel alliance' will take the legislation for that deal (which must be voted on by parliament) and add language to insist the public get to vote on it, along with remain and possibly no deal as well. In other words, another referendum. The spanner in the works is if Johnson elects to break the law and not request an extension if he can't get a deal approved. Theres also the issue of what the UK Supreme Court will say about his dodgy Prorogue this Tuesday or Wednesday. Traditionally they prefer to stay out of parliamentary business and let the MPs sort it out themselves, but since the MPs have been taken out of play with this one, such a line makes zero logical sense so there is a chance they will do something.

So without factoring the wildcards, if Johnson can finish a deal, there will be another referendum, if he can't then there will likely be a general election. If there's an election, things get interesting. A Tory or Brexit Party majority would see no deal Brexit. A Labour or SNP majority would see a second referendum, a Liberal Democrat majority would see them just pull the plug on Brexit altogether. None of these seem likely to me, so its back to hoping that Labour get more voted than the tories, or that the tories stick to their word about not getting in bed with Farage (won't bet the house on that). Any other coalition including the SNP or Lib Dems to make up the numbers, is likely to see a referendum being part of the arrangement.
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OreoCookie
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Sep 15, 2019, 08:41 AM
 
Johnson is banking on running out the clock and preferring to be punished (if that is at all an option) afterwards — he’ll have become a hero to a sizable, very vocal minority. I agree with you that the only way is another referendum — any solution needs political legitimacy from the electorate.

In the long term the big problem is that no matter what happens, a significant share of the population will feel cheated … and at least some for very good reason. The argument that some form of Brexit has gotten the majority, slim, but a majority, is correct, so reversing that would leave ~50 % of the population feeling they have been betrayed by the political class. Remainers can correctly point to the Leave campaign breaking campaign finance laws and murky connections to Russian oligarchs. Soft Brexiteers and pro Remain Tories feel without an electoral home. And if some form of agreement is reached, Hard Brexiteers will feel betrayed. (Well, these people will feel betrayed one way or another, it seems.) I don’t envy you guys.
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 16, 2019, 09:36 AM
 
Most leavers will regret leaving if they get it. They won't wait for the supposed benefits to kick in before they lose patience, many of them won't even live that long anyway, even without our health service getting shafted. Thats assuming any benefits ever happen that aren't entirely absorbed by the elite behind it all. Leavers are like angry toddlers throwing tantrums because they can't eat 7 whole chocolate cakes. They don't believe it will make them sick, but it will so the sensible adults have to do the right thing and then put up with being yelled at and hated until they are done screaming themselves out.
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Sep 24, 2019, 09:54 AM
 
The Supreme Court has found that the PM's advice to the Queen when proroguing parliament was unlawful, and has vacated that decision. The Speaker has advised MPs that business resumes tomorrow.

Unprecedented doesn't even begin to describe this situation, and I do not understand how BoJo can remain in office. Farage is trying to give him cover by suggesting that he fire an adviser, so not even he will give full support.
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Thorzdad  (op)
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Sep 24, 2019, 03:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by P View Post
Unprecedented doesn't even begin to describe this situation, and I do not understand how BoJo can remain in office.
Doesn't that require a vote of no confidence to force the matter? But, I'm not sure such a vote actually has any real effect. Hopefully Waragainstsleep will explain the mechanations involved in how Boris could be forced out as PM.
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Doc HM
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Sep 24, 2019, 04:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Doesn't that require a vote of no confidence to force the matter? But, I'm not sure such a vote actually has any real effect. Hopefully Waragainstsleep will explain the mechanations involved in how Boris could be forced out as PM.
It could be regarded and a resigning matter, however Boris is very unlikely to do so, or even register that he's done wrong. In fact he's already spinning the judgement as not "unlawful" but merely the Supreme Court suggesting it was simply a bit rash. Do not expect any resignations any time soon.

To remove Boris as leader the tories would need to submit a motion of no confidence in him as leader of their party, they can't do this for a year under the current rules, so that's not happening.

The only person lawfully allowed to call a vote of no confidence in the government is the leader of the opposition. If it passed this would trigger a general election, which would push past the leave date and result in a no deal exit, so Corbyn is not about to push this button.

Net result, Parliament is back but it's still gridlock. Johnson isn't going anywhere, no-one will vote to remove anyone. As things stand the law states that Johnson is compelled to seek an extension should no deal be available by the 19th(?). So at that point the question is will he? And if he won't what time is left to come up with a plan?

A mad outlier would be Johnson himself calling for a vote of no confidence. He's already tried to call an election under the fixed term parliaments act and failed but he could possibly vote no confidence in himself. If Labour voted along then it's GE time and no deal. This would scupper Johnsons fig leave defence of actually trying to get a deal so would seem unlikely, but not impossible. Corbyn "could" choose to support this since in reality he would love to leave the EU clean and try to blame it all on the Tories and build something new from the wreckage, but his party would crucify him. All very unlikely though.
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Waragainstsleep
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Sep 25, 2019, 09:04 PM
 
I don't think he can vote no confidence in himself, that would be resignation logically and since he has learned Trump's no shame superpower, he isn't going by his own choice. He's spent all day trying to goad Corbyn into doing it. I've heard hints that maybe other party leaders could do it but I don't know for sure.

Theres problems that need to be sorted. Firstly it seems the Tories think they have a way around recent bill requiring BoJo to extend A50. since this won't be evidenced until the 12th of October at the soonest, there likely wouldn't be time to challenge it in court again. Maybe that's the plan: A transparent bypass that just runs down the clock.
My suggestion would be to give Corbyn the power to request the extension if BoJo won't. The minority parties could orchestrate that easily enough.

A big issue is that the Tories are now united and all working together. Labour and the Lib Dems are fighting more often than not. Its idiocy. The other big issue is that only Boris is living in a post-Trump political sphere. The rest are still playing by rules that no longer apply and this will not serve anyone well except Boris. Make no mistake, ANY previous PM would have resigned before now but 100% would have gone today.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
 
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