Welcome to the MacNN Forums.

If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above. You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.

You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Putin, Ukraine, and Air Raid Drills

Putin, Ukraine, and Air Raid Drills (Page 2)
Thread Tools
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 04:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I said nothing about renewables causing the failure of the Texas grid (though their failure didn’t help), what I said was interconnects wouldn’t have fixed the problem (in contrast to your claim).
I’m completely lost. You mentioned Texas in the context of its power grid failure, not in the context of coal power plants. I read (past tense) your argument as a way to show that interconnectedness of the European power grid isn’t as big of an advantage as I make it out to be.

I am arguing that this is wrong for multiple reasons: I wrote that you need to distinguish between managing short-term fluctuations and managing systemic, longer-term power imbalances or catastrophic events. The failure in Texas was largely due to systemic failures, because power equipment wasn’t properly winterized. (From this perspective alone, I’d argue that if the Texan power grid were connected, this would have ameliorated the power crisis in Texas, because more strict federal winterization rules would have applied. But I digress.) Power fluctuations for renewables are short-term, manageable and in parts predictable.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 04:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Getting a little off topic here maybe.
True, sorry about that.
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
I read Putin sacked 8 of his generals for failing to conquer Ukraine fast enough. I have to think that will begin to motivate others in his administration to think about removing him.
Horace Dediu from asymco gave some estimates on the losses. According to him, Russia has sent about 50 % of its active duty force to Ukraine and has seen losses of about 10 % of those who arrived. While we should take these numbers with a grain of salt, if the order-of-magnitude of these ballpark figures is correct, then this is quite significant.

The tricky thing is that I don’t see an out. Just like it was hard for the US to leave Afghanistan without winning, the same is true here. Apart from Putin’s lack of care for human life, this aspect of humanity very much applies to him: I believe he doesn’t want to be seen as having lost in Ukraine to a rag-tag band of rebels. Dan Carlin in his awesome podcast episode asked the pertinent question: what is Putin’s winning condition? And he remarked that even if everything initially might be decided rationally, Putin’s options have narrowed down very quickly and he might see his hand forced. That’s the danger we should be looking out for.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 11:40 AM
 
If NATO had a guarantee that China would stay out of it, I think it would be worth them agreeing to enforce the no fly zone. Without air support Russia's troops would have a much more difficult job than they do already. Given he's already overextended and facing dissatisfaction at home, its hard to think he'd be foolish enough to pick a much bigger fight with a dozen other countries who are much better equipped than Ukraine to defend themselves.
On the other hand, it could backfire with the Russian people by allowing him to claim the world was ganging up on Russia and trying to inspire a siege mentality. The west needs to find effective ways to get information to the Russian people.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Thorzdad
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 01:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
If NATO had a guarantee that China would stay out of it...
Good luck with that. China’s been using Putin’ disinformation barrage on his own people to amplify its own internal anti-US rhetoric aimed at its own citizens. For China, NATO striking (even if blatantly provoked) would play nicely into China’s internal messaging.

Overall, this whole event has been a boon to China so far. I’m unsure how long that lasts once things devolve into a NATO/Russia shooting war. Certainly, China would prefer both sides cripple each other while it stands to the side and watches, ready to swoop in as a gracious benefactor to what’s left of the world once the dust settles. The key issue, of course, is just how they can stay out of the mess and let the two sides wreck each other.
     
subego
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 02:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
I’m completely lost. You mentioned Texas in the context of its power grid failure, not in the context of coal power plants.
This is incorrect.

Oreo: IMHO all coal power plants should be shut down now. They are by far the dirtiest way to produce electricity.

subego: How does Texas (for example) do this [shut down their coal plants]? Their grid is chronically on the edge of collapse.

I’m mentioning Texas in the context of your demand they shut down their coal plants. Grid failure enters into the discussion because if Texas got rid of their coal they could not meet demand, which would cause grid failure.


We can move continuing discussion to a new thread.
( Last edited by subego; Mar 11, 2022 at 04:17 PM. )
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 11:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by Thorzdad View Post
Good luck with that. China’s been using Putin’ disinformation barrage on his own people to amplify its own internal anti-US rhetoric aimed at its own citizens. For China, NATO striking (even if blatantly provoked) would play nicely into China’s internal messaging.

Overall, this whole event has been a boon to China so far. I’m unsure how long that lasts once things devolve into a NATO/Russia shooting war. Certainly, China would prefer both sides cripple each other while it stands to the side and watches, ready to swoop in as a gracious benefactor to what’s left of the world once the dust settles. The key issue, of course, is just how they can stay out of the mess and let the two sides wreck each other.
That and the fact they'd stand to gain very little from getting involved in a WW3 makes me think that NATO could actually stand up to Russia without starting WW3. The only issue then is Putin launching nuclear weapons.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
Waragainstsleep  (op)
Posting Junkie
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: UK
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 11, 2022, 11:38 PM
 
So Nigel Farage has popped up out of his sewer to start a new crusade against renewable energy sources. Some have speculated that (much like Brexit) Putin has put him up to this one way or another. I don't think its a coincidence that Trump started randomly rambling about windmills the other day.

On the plus side, this seems like a long game which would imply that Putin isn't planning a nuclear armageddon. Or at least someone isn't.
I have plenty of more important things to do, if only I could bring myself to do them....
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 12, 2022, 02:03 AM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
If NATO had a guarantee that China would stay out of it, I think it would be worth them agreeing to enforce the no fly zone.
China tends to do things quietly. I have read that they are refusing to deliver aircraft parts to Russia. Which means that Russia’s airline industry is effed. This is China’s way of showing Russia its disapproval. I vaguely remember a few years ago when the West was in negotiations with North Korea and the North Korean leadership was unreasonable. Suddenly there was unscheduled maintenance on pipelines between China and North Korea. NK got the message and mellowed out.

Another data point is Chinese censorship: I have heard that they are suppressing both, pro- and anti-war stances in an apparent effort to keep the temperature down.

Lastly, a war does not seem in China’s interest. The Xi regime builds its support on the growth of the Chinese economy, and just the effect of the war on oil and gas prices will have negative effects on growth. Furthermore, I don’t think the Chinese like the fact that the West’s resolve is steeled by this. If they ever wanted to do something funny with Taiwan (which is where the most advanced chip manufacturing plants are located, i. e. absolutely essential to everyone), they know they can expect a more swift and more organized response.
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
Without air support Russia's troops would have a much more difficult job than they do already. Given he's already overextended and facing dissatisfaction at home, its hard to think he'd be foolish enough to pick a much bigger fight with a dozen other countries who are much better equipped than Ukraine to defend themselves.
Even inside Ukraine, the way the war goes puts Putin in a difficult situation. A retreat would be an embarrassment for him, and one for which he may pay the price for. So I think Putin will try to push harder and further. In the short run, I expect the Russian military to prevail, but at a cost that will have significant ramifications for Russia and Putin’s regime.
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
On the other hand, it could backfire with the Russian people by allowing him to claim the world was ganging up on Russia and trying to inspire a siege mentality. The west needs to find effective ways to get information to the Russian people.
I don’t think we should fight propaganda with what can easily be perceived as counter-propaganda. Just wait for the Russian vets to come home, I think that’ll be much more effective than anything the West can do. Russians do have access to (parts of) the internet, so some can access our point of views.
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
That and the fact they'd stand to gain very little from getting involved in a WW3 makes me think that NATO could actually stand up to Russia without starting WW3. The only issue then is Putin launching nuclear weapons.
That’s the major motivating factor for NATO and the West at the moment. Putin knows this. That will preclude any direct involvement in Ukraine apart from aid and delivery of smaller weapons systems. But something like the donation of Polish Mig 29s or a no fly zone is off limits, I think.

IMHO the West should do what it is doing now: focus on saving as many Ukrainians as possible. Accept refugees. Be generous. Show why they are better off siding with democracies.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 12, 2022, 09:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep View Post
So Nigel Farage has popped up out of his sewer to start a new crusade against renewable energy sources. Some have speculated that (much like Brexit) Putin has put him up to this one way or another. I don't think its a coincidence that Trump started randomly rambling about windmills the other day.
I was wondering what Farage is up to these days now that his pet project is over and he fled responsibility for working out what Brexit actually meant. It seems so weird how people pick up on lost/stupid causes when reasons for using fossil fuels are melting away like the ice caps.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
reader50
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: California
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 04:02 AM
 
Apparently nothing is sacrosanct to scammers. Got an email (to the forum admin box) from a "distressed Ukrainian" in a camp at the Poland border. Needed our help claiming millions of inherited euros.

I guess scamming and thieving is a 24/7 job. Might be prudent to look out for fake charities too. Make sure your donations actually go to Ukrainians, not a deposed Nigerian princess.
     
Thorzdad
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 09:10 AM
 
So, yesterday, a bright, sunny spring day, the tornado sirens started sounding at around 10am. This quite confused me as the normal time for the weekly siren test is 11am on Fridays. I took a hard second look at the sky, and noted that it was a clear, cloudless blue sky. Not a storm cloud or front in sight. Then, my old-fart brain flashed on what the “tornado” sirens were originally meant for...air-raid warnings. I admit to a paranoid moment of “he didn’t really, did he?” as I peered in the direction of downtown Indy, hoping not to see a sudden blinding flash.

Then I turned on the radio to find out the sirens were all about this being some kind of Severe Weather Preparedness Week (this being spring and tornado alley and all), and it was just a test.
     
subego
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 01:58 PM
 
Tuesdays at 10a is actually the Chicago testing time.
     
reader50
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: California
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 03:10 PM
 
I would have assumed someone forgot to apply the time change to the siren-test script.
     
Thorzdad
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 03:25 PM
 
As I said, here in Indiana, our usual siren tests are Fridays at 11am. So, this was a wee bit confusing.
     
subego
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 16, 2022, 09:33 PM
 
Just as confusing on my end!

Until you got to the normal time for you I was like “but that’s when it always happens”.
     
Laminar
Posting Junkie
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: Iowa, how long can this be? Does it really ruin the left column spacing?
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
Mar 21, 2022, 10:45 AM
 
We do Saturdays at noon.
     
reader50
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: California
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 2, 2022, 01:33 PM
 
There is growing speculation that Putin has Parkinson's disease. In official video released by the Kremlin, Putin shows a number of symptoms or odd behaviors - take your pick.

Involuntary tremors on his right side. Notably affecting right hand and foot. Parkinsons tremors typically only affect muscles that are not in motion, so you can suppress the tremors by moving consciously.

Before shaking hands, Putin holds his right hand against his chest, possibly applying pressure to still the tremors. During the meeting, Putin sits slumped in a chair. Gripping the table with his right hand through the entire meeting. And his right foot taps throughout the meeting. YouTube has sped-up versions of the meeting, where the pattern is less tedious to see. Finally, he has a noticeably bloated face. That's not a Parkinsons symptom, but might be a response to treatments.

Parkinsons is not fatal by itself, but carries a boatload of symptoms. Including psychological ones such as depression, apathy, and anxiety. Add that to an isolated despot who's surrounded himself with an echo chamber, and you can see why people are speculating about this. Unfortunately Parkinsons won't kill him quickly - though it would make him more susceptible to dying from other causes.

Then there are those ridiculously long tables used when meeting subordinates and some world leaders. Paranoia or fragile health, take your pick.

I don't know if he has Parkinson's. Doctors haven't been commenting because they don't want to speculate on a patient they can't examine. And the Kremlin is tight-lipped about his health. But things don't look so good for Putin today.
     
subego
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Chicago, Bang! Bang!
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 2, 2022, 05:17 PM
 
Kremlinology 2.0
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 3, 2022, 02:33 AM
 
Yesterday, my family and I were flying back home from a trip to Europe. There was a delay with disembarkation, and I struck up a conversation with “our” flight attendant (she was sitting in the jump seat opposite of us), keeping an eye on my 4-year-old who had a fascination with the emergency door handle. Turns out she is not just from Ukraine, but from the south of Ukraine. I was close to tears. Her immediate family was able to flee to the EU, but she has family and friends whose fate is unknown. That hit me hard.

@reader
I’m not sure how useful it is to go down that route. Perhaps he has Parkinson’s, but that isn’t necessarily connected to mental decline. If anything, Putin’s actions seem consistent with someone living in a bubble, being fed information he wants to hear rather than accurate information. Speculation like that doesn’t seem to contribute anything to my overall understanding, it doesn’t seem necessary.

The really tricky thing is to see under what conditions Ukraine and Russia will accept a cease fire or a peace treaty. Clearly, Russia wants as much of the south as it can while Ukraine will probably want all territory but the Krim. (The Krim seems too far gone.) That’ll make it tricky to facilitate talks between the two sides. Russia is putting everything it has left to gains in the south, specifically the coast line. And Ukraine seems to slowly and methodically weaken Russia’s assets in the area (including sinking the Moskva, which was probably also crucial to keep eyes and ears on its surroundings in addition to proving a ton of firepower). Although we should be careful and remain critical of what we hear: we are likely mostly hearing of successes and at least in the long term, losses and other limitations will be equally important.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
reader50
Administrator
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: California
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 3, 2022, 04:59 AM
 
Reporting factual data (if it is factual) is not a route to go down. It would be news. It turns out speculation about Putin and Parkinson's goes back over a year. A YT video from November 2020 covers it, and shows snippets of articles from the same time period. Apparently Putin has been showing possible symptoms for awhile.

I don't know how reputable the sources were, but that pushes Parkinson's speculation back 18 months. Based on far more data points than a single recent video.

Personally, I hope it's true. It might cause Putin to make (more) bad tactical decisions. And makes it more obvious to those around him that he's unfit. I suspect the war won't end unless:

A) Ukraine is destroyed. (unlikely - their resources keep going up)
B) Ukraine wins decisively. (possible, but would take a long time)
C) Putin is removed from power. Possibly by dying.

Option C is the only one that can plausibly happen soon. The one option that would save the most lives.
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 4, 2022, 10:39 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Personally, I hope it's true. It might cause Putin to make (more) bad tactical decisions. And makes it more obvious to those around him that he's unfit. I suspect the war won't end unless:

A) Ukraine is destroyed. (unlikely - their resources keep going up)
B) Ukraine wins decisively. (possible, but would take a long time)
C) Putin is removed from power. Possibly by dying.

Option C is the only one that can plausibly happen soon. The one option that would save the most lives.
Be careful what you wish for. I’d rather have a Putin with all his mental faculties intact rather, he has his own nuclear buttons he can push after all. Plus, someone who is sober and mentally strong can admit he has to retreat from Ukraine.

Regarding your three scenarios, I think the most likely outcome is a mixture of A and B: I don’t think Ukraine will win decisively, but I think they will have to make some territorial concessions. Crimea is gone, that’s annexed by Russia and it’d take a lot of manpower to conquer it. Plus, Russia would most likely consider it an attack against itself. I don’t think Ukraine will accept the loss of the entire south, it will want cities like Mariupol back. Their economic and symbolic importance is too great. The big question mark are the contested territories in the Donbas region. Strategic attacks is a different thing than defense. Russia, on the other hand, will eventually mostly limit its military activities to the south and to defending the quasi-annexed parts of the Donbas region.

Personally, my expectation is that Ukraine will be able to free some of its territory in the south, but will have to give up on some parts of the Donbas region.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
Spheric Harlot
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: 888500128, C3, 2nd soft.
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 5, 2022, 04:12 AM
 
Control of the southern coastal cities is vital to Russia, because only that means control of the gas fields in coastal waters (which are among the twenty or so largest in the world).

If they relinquish that, a primary justification for re-“acquiring” Ukraine would have failed.
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 5, 2022, 08:47 AM
 
Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot View Post
Control of the southern coastal cities is vital to Russia, because only that means control of the gas fields in coastal waters (which are among the twenty or so largest in the world).

If they relinquish that, a primary justification for re-“acquiring” Ukraine would have failed.
Correct. And in addition Russia would have access to port cities, something else that I reckon Putin considers vital. But this narrow strip seems vulnerable, and it isn’t clear to me whether Russia can actually hold the territory in the long run. Unlike the Donbas region, I don’t think the population is sympathetic to Russia’s cause.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
Spheric Harlot
Clinically Insane
Join Date: Nov 1999
Location: 888500128, C3, 2nd soft.
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 5, 2022, 12:19 PM
 
Beatings, rape, and murder can just continue until morale improves.
     
Thorzdad
Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Nobletucky
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 18, 2022, 05:52 AM
 
     
OreoCookie
Moderator
Join Date: May 2001
Location: Hilbert space
Status: Offline
Reply With Quote
May 21, 2022, 07:56 AM
 
A few days ago, Zelensky’s TV show popped up on Netflix (at least here in Japan) and we gave it a try. It is quite funny (a mixture of the ridiculous and the sophisticated with a dash of slap stick) even though the premise isn’t new. Although the humor is tempered with irony (since he actually became president of Ukraine) and bitterness (given the horrific situation in Ukraine now). A lot of references are over my head, but it still gives some insight into what Ukraine was like before the invasion.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
 
Thread Tools
 
Forum Links
Forum Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Top
Privacy Policy
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 04:37 PM.
All contents of these forums © 1995-2017 MacNN. All rights reserved.
Branding + Design: www.gesamtbild.com
vBulletin v.3.8.8 © 2000-2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.,