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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning?

View Poll Results: Which do you have? (Choose only ONE. Includes stand-alones and game consoles.)
Poll Options:
HD DVD 34 votes (17.09%)
Blu-ray 87 votes (43.72%)
Both 14 votes (7.04%)
Neither 70 votes (35.18%)
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 199. You may not vote on this poll
Blu-ray/HD DVD... Who is winning? (Page 8)
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Mrjinglesusa
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Jan 8, 2007, 10:06 AM
 
Originally Posted by - - e r i k - - View Post
The 640 quote was also from Microsoft. Apple said "no video on iPod". What's your point again?
My point is that MS has no reason to make a 360 with a built-in HD-DVD drive. Unlike Sony (who is relying on the PS3 to help them win the next-gen DVD war), MS has no horse in this race (although technically aligned with HD-DVD). If Blu-Ray ends up winning, there is no reason MS could not make a Blu-Ray add-on to the 360. If HD-DVD wins, PS3 owners are stuck with Blu-Ray (myself included).

Bottom line: options are always good.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jan 8, 2007, 10:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa View Post
My point is that MS has no reason to make a 360 with a built-in HD-DVD drive. Unlike Sony (who is relying on the PS3 to help them win the next-gen DVD war), MS has no horse in this race (although technically aligned with HD-DVD).
MS helped design iHD.

Also, HD DVD seems to use MS's VC-1 codec much more often than Blu-ray (although that may change).
     
Dark Helmet
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Jan 8, 2007, 12:41 PM
 
ok everything else aside why is the release titles for Blu-ray over the next 3 months 5x bigger than HD-DVD's?

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Jawbone54
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Jan 8, 2007, 12:44 PM
 
Playstation 3 factor?

Just my theory, but I'm not extremely knowledgeable on how these format wars are going.
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 12:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
Really? That's good I guess, but Superman Returns really sucks on DVD. (I saw it on display on a Bravia at the Sony Store and there were artifacts everywhere.)
A friend came over on Saturday and I happened to have it on. He has never seen HD-DVD or BluRay before and him and his wife were both really impressed with the picture quality.

I haven't flipped the disc over and looked at the DVD version yet. Maybe I'll try it tonight, see the difference.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jan 8, 2007, 12:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
ok everything else aside why is the release titles for Blu-ray over the next 3 months 5x bigger than HD-DVD's?
HD DVD has announced that they will be releasing 300+ new HD DVD titles in 2007.

P.S. Fox is claiming that in the week of Xmas 2006, Blu-ray sold more titles than HD DVD, but the graph has a date of 2010.
     
Dark Helmet
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Jan 8, 2007, 03:56 PM
 
Hey eug didn't you say you don't think the game systems will have much influence on the war?

"More interesting, however, is the report's claim that of the 695,000 current US consumers that own either a Blu-ray or HD-DVD player, 400,000 own Blu-ray because they bought a PS3 (58%) and 150,000 own HD-DVD because they bought Microsoft's HD-DVD upgrade kit for the 360 (22%). So PS3s and Xbox 360s used as movie players account for 80% of total HD players in the market."

PS3, Xbox 360 account for 80% of Blu-ray, HD-DVD players - Joystiq

Sure we can pick it apart on which PS3 owners are watching movies on it but it at least shows the devices are out there now they just need to temp us with the software.

Also the PS3's numbers are 1 million in the US now.

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Eug Wanker
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Jan 8, 2007, 04:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Hey eug didn't you say you don't think the game systems will have much influence on the war?

"More interesting, however, is the report's claim that of the 695,000 current US consumers that own either a Blu-ray or HD-DVD player, 400,000 own Blu-ray because they bought a PS3 (58%) and 150,000 own HD-DVD because they bought Microsoft's HD-DVD upgrade kit for the 360 (22%). So PS3s and Xbox 360s used as movie players account for 80% of total HD players in the market."

PS3, Xbox 360 account for 80% of Blu-ray, HD-DVD players - Joystiq

Sure we can pick it apart on which PS3 owners are watching movies on it but it at least shows the devices are out there now they just need to temp us with the software.

Also the PS3's numbers are 1 million in the US now.
Actually what I said is that DVD game systems didn't have a huge impact on DVD adoption.

I do think that game systems will have more impact on HD disc adoption this time around, but I still don't think it will be as important as some believe it will be.
     
Dark Helmet
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Jan 8, 2007, 04:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
Actually what I said is that DVD game systems didn't have a huge impact on DVD adoption.

I do think that game systems will have more impact on HD disc adoption this time around, but I still don't think it will be as important as some believe it will be.
Hmm, I definitely remember you saying home systems of this gen aren't going to make a difference after I said when the PS3 ships they will have an overnight blu-ray install base of 1 million.

Anywho, no matter.

For right now it seems 80% or higher of HD systems is through gamers. A year from now it could be the same, less or higher. So at least we can say that the LAUNCH of both formats is being pushed by the game systems. They can either sustain them or drop drastically.

I went to the music store the other day and ask them if they carried blu-ray disks. He said no but since december everyone is coming in and asking for them. I assume it is 95% PS3 owners.

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el chupacabra
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Jan 8, 2007, 04:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
ok everything else aside why is the release titles for Blu-ray over the next 3 months 5x bigger than HD-DVD's?
Blu ray got contracts with more companies than HD. There's a Hd dvd vs blu ray forum out there where you can learn a lot of stuff on this.

Most companies picked blu ray because it is technically superior 50 GB disks and all that. Llarger disk allows movies to be encoded at higher bit rates/quality. HD DVD until recently only did 1080i output on their players while all blu ray are 1080p @60fps (p = better). The blu ray can be put on paper disks (for data purposes). HD DVD has been mildly successful mainly because their product was out first, and they saved money by ripping people off with their cheap $499 1080i players. The only 1080p HD dvd player I have seen was a new model and $1000 . Unfortunately most people don't know what i or p means.... all they see is HD in the name and think its all the same.

HD and its VC1 involvment scares me. This is microsoft trying to bully its way into a market it doesn't belong in again (vc1 is based off the wmv...need I say more). If any compression is going to be used it should be mpeg-4 not VC1; having said that all movies should be done in mpeg 2 for now for highest quality. Part of what makes VC1 appealing is its interlacing (the nasty "i" again) capabilities. As many of you video people out there know interlacing is an old half assed way of doing things and it needs to be done away with.

AFAIK their are more blu ray players out there than HD when counting all xbox add ons and ps3s as players. Sony has sold about 1mil so far and predicts about 6 mil by march meaning 1 in every 50 people will have a bd player by at least july... there is a very educated guess out there saying about 150,000 HD dvd players have sold (counting xbox adds) by new year. It has turned out that blu ray in the ps3 was a key selling point (not the gaming abilities). Many people including myself have ps3 just for blu ray. When I went to sears day after xmas there were about 4 people looking for ps3 soley as a bd player. I was there to buy a HD player until I saw that "i".

The PS3 shortage IMO is a Sony marketing gimmick. (i think) sony made a near perfect estimate of how many ps3s would sell by new years. If you go to the stores you should see many PS3 $600 model on the shelves. I have been told by many stores that they dont even intend to order more $500 models. The cost to make these models is more than what sony sells them for. It seems they are making up some loss with wifi and a few extra gigs.

I hope neither formate wins it all, I'd like to see some competition for a while and hopfully the xbox can keep HD afloat; as sony can be kinda scary too.. But when I went to the video store yesturday to rent a blu ray most of them were checked out, the shelf for HD however was hardly touched.

Anyway Ta Ta for now
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 04:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
Many people including myself have ps3 just for blu ray.
It's funny, everyone I know that has or wants a PS3 is interested in it BECAUSE of the Blu-ray yet many people here and in the media make it sound like it is some evil $200 drive that is forced onto everyone.

I would NOT have got a PS3 as soon as I did if it wasn't for the Blu-ray. I would have got a PS3 anyway even if it didn't have a BR but not for that price or as quickly.

Out of all my systems I am surprisingly using the PS3 the most for watching both DVD's and BR. On top of that I play lots of the game demo's, PS2 games and my one PS3 game. I love the damn thing and when march rolls around with some more killer titles out I will be thrilled.

The only thing I would change on the PS3 is to upconvert DVD"s and rumble in the controller. Neither of those things are even close to a deal breaker to me.

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Eug Wanker
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Jan 8, 2007, 04:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
HD and its VC1 involvment scares me. This is microsoft trying to bully its way into a market it doesn't belong in again (vc1 is based off the wmv...need I say more). If any compression is going to be used it should be mpeg-4 not VC1; having said that all movies should be done in mpeg 2 for now for highest quality. Part of what makes VC1 appealing is its interlacing (the nasty "i" again) capabilities. As many of you video people out there know interlacing is an old half assed way of doing things and it needs to be done away with.
VC1 support is mandatory on both Blu-ray and HD DVD.

Interlacing has nothing to do with VC-1 on Blu-ray and HD DVD, since all VC-1 movies are encoded as 1080p.
     
el chupacabra
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Jan 8, 2007, 05:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
VC1 support is mandatory on both Blu-ray and HD DVD.

Interlacing has nothing to do with VC-1 on Blu-ray and HD DVD, since all VC-1 movies are encoded as 1080p.
I know its madatory to support it on both. I can see it showing up more often on HD.

I didn't know all VC-1 movies were encoded at 1080p. Are you sure of this? I read something that said 1080i was the main catch for VC-1's acceptance. It would allow video to be broadcast at lower bandwiths. If I come accross it I will post the link. Maybe its just for cable? In any case 'i' needs to go away.. It wasn't even neccesary with DVDs but it was often there to save space.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jan 8, 2007, 05:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
I know its madatory to support it on both. I can see it showing up more often on HD.
Yes, basically VC-1 or H.264 must be used on HD DVD for movies of any length, because of space restrictions. MPEG2 takes up too much space.

On Blu-ray, it's more of a mix of H.264, VC-1, or MPEG2. It seems that several of the neutral companies are transitioning to VC-1 however, so they can encode just once in VC-1 and release it on both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

I didn't know all VC-1 movies were encoded at 1080p.
Yes. AFAIK, all 24 fps movies released so far are 1080p24, whether they are MPEG2, H.264, or VC-1. It would make no sense to encode them at anything different. They could use 1080p30 though for some video stuff.

Maybe its just for cable? In any case 'i' needs to go away.. It wasn't even neccesary with DVDs but it was often there to save space.
There is no such thing as 1080p for broadcast video. There is 720p and 1080i. And 1080i looks better than 720p on a lot of content. Personally, I'm quite happy with 1080i resolution for broadcast video. What I'm not happy with though is the MPEG2 artifacts with 1080i cable, since the MPEG2 bitrates they use are too low.
     
el chupacabra
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Jan 8, 2007, 05:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
There is no such thing as 1080p for broadcast video. There is 720p and 1080i. And 1080i looks better than 720p on a lot of content. Personally, I'm quite happy with 1080i resolution for broadcast video. What I'm not happy with though is the MPEG2 artifacts with 1080i cable, since the MPEG2 bitrates they use are too low.

Darn those space restrictions of HD DVD....looks like they're going to hold back big Blu

There's no 1080p 'now' in broadcasting, but when trying to standardize for the future some in the industry were complaining it would take too much bandwidth. I like to hold companies to higher standards. They all rip us off they have plenty of money to do the upgrades. Cable companies and what not are all monopolys.

I'll have to find that linky tomorrow sometime because it had a great deal on VC1 and interlacing. It's been a while since I read it though.
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 05:48 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
And 1080i looks better than 720p on a lot of content.
What kind of content?

Everything I have seen over the years says 720p is better for motions with a lot of movement such as sports or any action based show/movie.

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Jawbone54
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Jan 8, 2007, 06:09 PM
 
Ditto. 1080i < 720p for sure.
     
Mrjinglesusa
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Jan 8, 2007, 06:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
It's funny, everyone I know that has or wants a PS3 is interested in it BECAUSE of the Blu-ray yet many people here and in the media make it sound like it is some evil $200 drive that is forced onto everyone.

I would NOT have got a PS3 as soon as I did if it wasn't for the Blu-ray. I would have got a PS3 anyway even if it didn't have a BR but not for that price or as quickly.

Out of all my systems I am surprisingly using the PS3 the most for watching both DVD's and BR. On top of that I play lots of the game demo's, PS2 games and my one PS3 game. I love the damn thing and when march rolls around with some more killer titles out I will be thrilled.

The only thing I would change on the PS3 is to upconvert DVD"s and rumble in the controller. Neither of those things are even close to a deal breaker to me.


Exactly. Only reason I got one was because it had Blu-Ray. Well that, and my 360 died (damn MS). lol

I love it. In fact, even when (if) my 360 gets fixed (i.e. MS sends me a refurbished POS) I will probably play my PS3 more (I'm loving NFS:Carbon).

Anyone want some 360 games cheap?
     
Velocity211
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Jan 8, 2007, 06:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
What kind of content?

Everything I have seen over the years says 720p is better for motions with a lot of movement such as sports or any action based show/movie.
I agree that 720p looks a lot better when you're playing 720p content, but on discovery HD, 1080i usually looks better most of the time, probably because everything is broadcasted in 1080i.
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exca1ibur
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Jan 8, 2007, 06:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa View Post


Exactly. Only reason I got one was because it had Blu-Ray. Well that, and my 360 died (damn MS). lol

I love it. In fact, even when (if) my 360 gets fixed (i.e. MS sends me a refurbished POS) I will probably play my PS3 more (I'm loving NFS:Carbon).

Anyone want some 360 games cheap?
HOw is that game? What type of cars and customizations can you do? My buddy keeps telling me to check it out. I have been playing Marvel Alliance here, since I finished Resistance: Fall of Man. I still need to try that one online sometime though.

All in all I love the system as well. The more impressive thing for me with Blue-Ray is the sound. The balance and quality is spot on.
     
Mrjinglesusa
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Jan 8, 2007, 07:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by exca1ibur View Post
HOw is that game? What type of cars and customizations can you do? My buddy keeps telling me to check it out. I have been playing Marvel Alliance here, since I finished Resistance: Fall of Man. I still need to try that one online sometime though.

All in all I love the system as well. The more impressive thing for me with Blue-Ray is the sound. The balance and quality is spot on.
It's great. All kinds of cars (exotic, tuners, muscle) that you can customize to your hearts content. I have Marvel Alliance too, fun game. Still playing Resistance as well.

Anyway, back on topic....
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 07:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by Velocity211 View Post
I agree that 720p looks a lot better when you're playing 720p content, but on discovery HD, 1080i usually looks better most of the time, probably because everything is broadcasted in 1080i.
Yep. 1080i on Discovery HD is awesome. 720p looks a bit softer. Mind you both look great, and in my case it's irrelevant since my main TV doesn't support 720p anyway.

I don't watch sports much.
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 09:34 PM
 
Consumers Overwhelmingly Choose ''Blu''

"Demand for PS3 has been extremely high, and according to a recent SCEA survey of over 10,000 PS3 owners, 80 percent indicated they will buy Blu-ray movies and 75 percent said they use the PS3 as a primary device for viewing movies."

Boom, that's it right there. I fall under the category as I replaced my high end up-converting DVD player with the PS3 and wanted the Blu-ray as much as the games.

If 10% of just PS3 owners do in fact buy a movie (and you have to admit 10% is very low) the numbers are still huge today not to mention a year from now.

This is also interesting and something I never considered.
Blu-ray has 96% of the HD player market in Japan. "In terms of Japan the game is already over there.""
Live coverage from BDA press conference - Engadget

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icruise
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Jan 8, 2007, 09:39 PM
 
It's way too early for either side to be declaring victory. Sounds like they just want to try and convince people that they're ahead.
     
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Jan 8, 2007, 09:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by icruise View Post
It's way too early for either side to be declaring victory. Sounds like they just want to try and convince people that they're ahead.
Of course and HD-DVD will probably announce one this week that says the other-way.

BUT if those survey and sales numbers are true then what can we say?

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Jan 8, 2007, 10:22 PM
 
"'Gridiron Gang' is the latest 1080p/MPEG-2 release from Sony, and is further proof that the much-maligned codec deserves a sincere reevaluation. I was one of the chorus of naysayers early on, and I'm still not a fan of many early Blu-ray transfers. But starting with Sony's 'Tears of the Sun,' most of the studio's MPEG-2 output has been quite impressive. And coming after 'The Covenant,' which I just gave a five-star video rating to only yesterday, 'Gridiron Gang' is up there with the best of what might be called the "second coming" of MPEG-2."

Blu-ray Review: Gridiron Gang | High-Def Digest

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Dark Helmet
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Jan 8, 2007, 10:53 PM
 
Well, here's the other side:

Macworld: News: Toshiba expects to ship 1.8M HD DVD players in 2007

Funny how they don't give hardware sales number only say "Sold out".

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Jan 9, 2007, 12:25 AM
 
The Product Wars fought on Amazon.com

According to the graphs I think BluRay caught up to HD DVD today.

I love the U.S., but we need some time apart.
     
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Jan 9, 2007, 12:39 AM
 
Originally Posted by mrtew View Post
The Product Wars fought on Amazon.com

According to the graphs I think BluRay caught up to HD DVD today.
Holy crap!

Must be all those BR drives in the PS3 nobody wants.

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Jan 9, 2007, 01:33 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Holy crap!

Must be all those BR drives in the PS3 nobody wants.
I thought you didn't think much of Amazon numbers?

Anyways, IMO this is further evidence that there will be no winner in this war. This is going towards a stalemate for quite some time to come, and non-geek consumers will continue to be wary and confused.
     
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Jan 9, 2007, 01:39 AM
 
Ok but Toshiba's own release said they plan to ship 1.8 million players in 2007.

Doesn't sony plan to have 6 million PS3's on the streets by MARCH?!

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Jan 9, 2007, 06:25 AM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
The PS3 shortage IMO is a Sony marketing gimmick. (i think) sony made a near perfect estimate of how many ps3s would sell by new years. If you go to the stores you should see many PS3 $600 model on the shelves. I have been told by many stores that they dont even intend to order more $500 models. The cost to make these models is more than what sony sells them for. It seems they are making up some loss with wifi and a few extra gigs.
Except in Europe where the launch has been put back, Unless 'Not selling any over the Xmas period' is some sort of new sales strategy.
     
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Jan 9, 2007, 06:36 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
This is also interesting and something I never considered.
Blu-ray has 96% of the HD player market in Japan. "In terms of Japan the game is already over there.""
Live coverage from BDA press conference - Engadget
Wow. Of course, success in Japan does not necessarily mean success abroad (witness MiniDisc, and to a lesser extent, technologies like MO drives). But still that's damn impressive.
     
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Jan 9, 2007, 05:17 PM
 
Doing a quick search on VC-1 landed this wiki article right on top.
VC-1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

from the first paragraph:
VC-1 contains coding tools for interlaced video sequences as well as progressive encoding. The main goal of VC-1 development and standardization is to support the compression of interlaced content without first converting it to progressive, making it more attractive to broadcast and video industry professionals.
Basically VC-1 allows companies to cheapen their video. I'll keep an i out for a more specific source.
( Last edited by el chupacabra; Jan 9, 2007 at 06:02 PM. )
     
Eug Wanker
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Jan 9, 2007, 07:49 PM
 
Originally Posted by el chupacabra View Post
Doing a quick search on VC-1 landed this wiki article right on top.
VC-1 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

from the first paragraph:


Basically VC-1 allows companies to cheapen their video. I'll keep an i out for a more specific source.
AGAIN, WTF are you talking about?

HD DVD's and Blu-ray's VC-1 is all 1080p.

And yeah, interlaced video is very good for broadcast purposes. Get over it.
     
Eug Wanker
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Jan 10, 2007, 11:57 AM
 
According to Warner (which is format neutral), HD DVD sold twice as many discs as Blu-ray in 2006.

     
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Jan 10, 2007, 12:21 PM
 
Warner officially announces Total Hi Def hybrid disc - Engadget HD


Worst idea ever. I mean what is the point? If it comes down to this then the studio's just need to come to their senses and make ONE formate.

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Jan 10, 2007, 12:26 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
According to Warner (which is format neutral), HD DVD sold twice as many discs as Blu-ray in 2006.

No surprise with it's 6 month head start. One blu-ray player on the market that costs twice as much, sony delaying all other blu-ray devices for the PS3 and the PS3's november ship date with low supplies.

But as amazon showed in december Blu-ray caught up overnight.

Unless the PS3 sales take a huge tank things don't look good for HD-DVD this year. Even toshiba said they expect to ship 1.8 million HD-DVD drives this YEAR while PS3's hope to hit 6 million by march.

What is sony's year end goals? 12 million?

Figure in only 10% of PS3 owners getting a movie and that still puts Blu-ray ahead and that is only considering PS3's and no other stand alone players.

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Eug Wanker
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Jan 10, 2007, 01:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
No surprise with it's 6 month head start. One blu-ray player on the market that costs twice as much, sony delaying all other blu-ray devices for the PS3 and the PS3's november ship date with low supplies.

But as amazon showed in december Blu-ray caught up overnight.

Unless the PS3 sales take a huge tank things don't look good for HD-DVD this year. Even toshiba said they expect to ship 1.8 million HD-DVD drives this YEAR while PS3's hope to hit 6 million by march.

What is sony's year end goals? 12 million?

Figure in only 10% of PS3 owners getting a movie and that still puts Blu-ray ahead and that is only considering PS3's and no other stand alone players.
That means no clear winner... a format stalemate, which is what I've been saying for the last several months was going to happen.

This is especially true since Chinese HD DVD players are being launched in 2007. These will cost significantly less than the cheapest PS3.


Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Warner officially announces Total Hi Def hybrid disc - Engadget HD

Worst idea ever. I mean what is the point? If it comes down to this then the studio's just need to come to their senses and make ONE formate.
Yes, I think it's stupid too, unless they can price them within a couple of bucks of competitors discs.

I expect Warner to release some, and maybe Paramount, but nobody else.
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 01:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
This is especially true since Chinese HD DVD players are being launched in 2007. These will cost significantly less than the cheapest PS3.
It is only a stalemate if you use those very conservative numbers and only use the PS3 as a consideration. I didn't account for 3rd party stand alone players and Apple + all those other computer companies that will be putting Blu-ray drives in units this year.

Was the 1.8 million drives Toshiba expects to ship this year just for stand alone players or computers, xbox's and all?

How much do companies worry about win the Chinese market? With things like this China is always rampant with unlocked players, ridiculous piracy and red tape.

Japan is much more important on this front and it is 96% blu-ray over there today, they don't even know there is a format war.

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Jan 10, 2007, 01:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
It is only a stalemate if you use those very conservative numbers and only use the PS3 as a consideration. I didn't account for 3rd party stand alone players and Apple + all those other computer companies that will be putting Blu-ray drives in units this year.

Was the 1.8 million drives Toshiba expects to ship this year just for stand alone players or computers, xbox's and all?

How much do companies worry about win the Chinese market? With things like this China is always rampant with unlocked players, ridiculous piracy and red tape.

Japan is much more important on this front and it is 96% blu-ray over there today, they don't even know there is a format war.
Japan is important, but not crucial for world-wide success. Betamax is the prime example.

I don't think Blu-ray standalones are going to sell well, given the high cost. Samsung's cheapest is $799, and Pioneer, LG, and Panasonic players are all over $1000. The latter three are gonna sell like crap. Maybe the LG will sell a little bit better, because it supports HD DVD as well, albeit in a half-assed manner.

Some interesting points about disc replication as well, although take it with a grain of salt, since they're from an HD DVD insider:

"Will disc production constraints play a role in format war in near term future?"

For HD DVD there is zero constraint. HD DVD lines are same as DVD lines and are able to crank out titles at the same massive rate. There are many, many replicators around the world who are already producing HD DVDs. Indeed, any modern DVD line that you buy is liable to be able to make both DVDs and HD DVDs.

BD of course, is no where close to above. Its lines can only make BD. And while some independent replicators have produced BD-25 discs, their yields and cycle time (how long it takes to make a disc) sharply lags HD DVD (even Sony claims cycle time of 4+ seconds compared to 2.5 for DVD/HD DVD). BD-50 is much more problematic with Sony/MEI the only two producing them although others are trying to get online. But even if they do produce them, the yields and cycle time are in a different class than what is needed for true mass production.

Having said all of this, the market for BD products is really small relative to DVD. So BD has not yet faced this issue head on. However, if they want to meet their grand forecast, they might face issues here with BD-50.



"300 new titles this year for each format is likely to max out the available capacity."

Not for HD DVD. We could produce 30,000 titles and it would be no big deal. Note from above that if more capacity is needed, new lines can be purchases which can produce both HD DVD and DVDs (you can switch between them in as little as 5 minutes). So the investment is very protected.

BD however, requires dedicated investment in new lines so it is much riskier for replicator to spend the money. As such, if demand picks up, they may have issues scaling.
Another interesting point that I wasn't aware of is that Toshiba's triple layer discs are actually dual layer, but with 3 focal points.

The third layer is on the surface of one half. So no, nothing is on the actual surface of the disc. We are still talking about two .6mm halves being fused together, yielding faster cycle time than molding a thick substrate as BD does. And we still enjoy the same natural protection a deeper recording system provides.

But you are right that is not precisely the same process as current DVD. It adds some level of complexity. But these discs will still be cheaper and easier to produce than BD-50
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 01:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
Another interesting point that I wasn't aware of is that Toshiba's triple layer discs are actually dual layer, but with 3 focal points.
What is the story on those? Are they going to need special players or just ROM updates for current ones?

Costs aren't an issue as I have been very impressed with Blu-ray disks so far being the same as HD-DVD titles and sometimes even less. So much for Blu-ray being too expensive to make, might be true but the studio support is still stronger and the cost isn't being passed on to the consumer.

Something interesting I found out about Blu-ray is that it is in the specs that players need a big enough buffer so you can't notice when it switches layers.

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Jan 10, 2007, 02:03 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
What is the story on those? Are they going to need special players or just ROM updates for current ones?
No idea. First off I'm not sure if TL discs will ever make it to market, but if they do, whether or not they would work on current players (with firmware updates) is something I dunno.

To reiterate: Triple layer 51 GB is 3 17 GB layers, at 1.5X spin speed.

Issues:

1) Focusing. Well, it could work, because TL discs actually were tested on modified versions of current technology. They just changed the focusing parameters.
2) Disc speed, since TL51 is 1.5X instead of 1X. This would be OK, since all HD DVD drives released to date are 2X or better anyway (even though the HD DVD spec is only 1X).
3) Data density. Well, TL 51 is only 17GB per layer, which is a marginal difference over 15, so that's possible too.
4) Decoding speed. This may be a bigger problem. HD DVD players are designed to decode data fed to them at 1X. If you start giving it 50% more data (1.5X), maybe the player itself won't be able to keep up.

Mind you, ALL players made to date were controlled by Toshiba, so it's possible they accounted for this (or not).

The first player is a NEC drive, but was a Toshiba player. The RCA is a rebadged Toshiba. The two new players are also all Toshiba, including the drive in the Xbox 360 HD DVD. The new mid-range player coming soon is also a Toshiba.

The only wild card is the LG that's coming, but that's not a proper HD DVD player anyway, so I don't think Toshiba would care that much if it got orphaned.

Something interesting I found out about Blu-ray is that it is in the specs that players need a big enough buffer so you can't notice when it switches layers.
No noticeable layer switch on either HD DVD or Blu-ray.
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 03:14 PM
 
LG Hybrid Blu-ray/HD DVD Player Cannot Be Sold As Is

LG may have a difficult time bringing its newly announced BH100 hybrid Blu-ray and HD DVD player to the market, BetaNews has learned, because it will not receive certification from the DVD Forum. Without such certification, LG cannot publicly claim the player supports HD DVD as it is doing now.
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 03:58 PM
 
I think the fact that Toshiba is already taking the "We can have 51 gigs in a year to to up with Blu-ray" this early shows that size is an important factor and not just better codecs etc.

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Jan 10, 2007, 08:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post

Figure in only 10% of PS3 owners getting a movie and that still puts Blu-ray ahead and that is only considering PS3's and no other stand alone players.

Digit Online

According to this 80% of ps3 owners will purchase movies.
75 per cent planned to use Blu-ray Disc as a primary movie player.


.............(following this) 80 per cent of 1 million – it equals an installed base of 800,000 Blu-ray Disc players, just based on the PlayStation 3 alone.

With numbers like that, notes the Blu-ray Disc Association's Andy Parsons, "Blu-ray Disc represents the safe buy. It's not going to go away any time soon."



Something people should watch out for when purchasing your disks.. Not all Movies will be in true 1080p. However they will all say they are. I'm still looking for a way to look this up easily...other than renting it to see. It seems many of the people at best buy and sears seem to know which movies are and arn't (i forgot to ask them how). So for now you may want to go to those web sites that list the movies in highest ranking quality since thats really all that matter.

Not everyone will care but if your like me you can tell the video re/quality very fast. and i can tell if frames have been slopply knitted together with a glance... and i absolutly hate interlaced video.

As for this dual sided disk thing I'd rather they just encode the movie at double the bit rate and put half on each side.


some more article for trivial purposes.
Blu-ray and HD-DVD face title fight - Yahoo! News UK
PlayStation 3 Likely Missed Sales Target: Financial News - Yahoo! Finance
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 08:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug Wanker View Post
AGAIN, WTF are you talking about?


And yeah, interlaced video is very good for broadcast purposes. Get over it.

My point is the selling point of vc1 is its ability to interlace (ruin video). Thats what got it main stream. It has no advantages to mpeg4 that I know of and therfore there is no reason it should have been considered for BD or HD. All it is is wmv with a few tweaks by other companies ...and 1080 capable. Most people consider wmv inferior to divx 5; and h264 worlds above divx 6. There has been way more research in mpeg4 by more people than vc1. Wmv hardly works well on windows and considering everything else microsoft has done in history I have no reason what so ever to expect vc1 to turn out to be better than mpeg4 or 2. In fact if history tells us anything I have very good reason to be thourowly depressed about "most companies will just encode in vc1 once and put that on both disks."
     
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Jan 10, 2007, 08:32 PM
 
Ok well if 80% of PS3 owners really do buy blu-ray movies HD-DVD is totally ****ed.

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Jan 10, 2007, 11:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Ok well if 80% of PS3 owners really do buy blu-ray movies HD-DVD is totally ****ed.
Huh? You really think they might not? Who would go out an buy a bluray player for $600 and not buy a movie for it? No one loves games and hates movies THAT much!

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Jan 11, 2007, 10:09 AM
 
Blu-ray says no to porn

"Joone, founder of the company Digital Playground and director of extremely popular HD porn movies, declared that his company would from next week on be publishing movies on HD DVD on a regular basis."

"This is a U-turn for Joone, who at last year's AVN event had declared his support for the Blu-ray Disc format. Asked about his change of attitude by heise online the director responded: "Sony wants me to publish my films on HD DVD." He then went on to explain that he had in fact wanted to publish his movies on Blu-ray Disc, but that all Blu-ray Disc copying facilities in the United States had refused to cooperate. The companies had unanimously declared that Sony had threatened to withdraw their Blu-ray licenses should they stoop to making HD copies of pornographic films, Joone said. Even though he would have liked to supply with his movies the predominantly male group of Playstation 3 players he had been forced by events, he declared, to switch to HD DVD. The game console has the ability to play Blu-ray Discs built into it. The director said he was puzzled by Sony's attitude, which, he noted, had also turned out to be counterproductive in the case of Betamax."

I had said that pr0n wouldn't matter, but if Blu-ray has this strange attitude for much longer, then it will matter.


Originally Posted by Dark Helmet View Post
Ok well if 80% of PS3 owners really do buy blu-ray movies HD-DVD is totally ****ed.
I fully expect the majority of PS3 owners to buy Blu-ray movies. However, I also expect that the attachment rate will be lower than the average of those who buy the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive, or a standalone HD DVD or Blu-ray player.

What can also be said is that if HD DVD really does get a $299 player out in late 2007, Blu-ray is totally ****ed.

The reality of it though is something in between. Like I said before, it's going to be a stalemate.
     
 
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