[cSurfr]

Originally Posted by goMac 

That's funny, another big industry insider disagrees.

(I apologize for disappearing for the last few days, I came down with something awful, and after all the horrible things were over, I literally was just bedridden for a few days. I figured rather than poke around this thread and post replies that were even less sensible than usual, I'd just take a break and rest up. I also apologize to those of you disappointed to see me return. And no, I have not read all the posts that were made in the last few days.)

I think Steve is absolutely right. However, the price point is still a bit too high. . . before you laugh, 3 at a time unlimited per month is what? 16.99 a month with Netflix? Sure I have to add movies to my queue and sometimes get movies in a different order, but it's still cheaper.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by cSurfr 

I think Steve is absolutely right. However, the price point is still a bit too high. . . before you laugh, 3 at a time unlimited per month is what? 16.99 a month with Netflix? Sure I have to add movies to my queue and sometimes get movies in a different order, but it's still cheaper.

It's a different kind service, though. Instant delivery vs. snail mail. I canceled my Netflix, partly due to not using it as often as I thought I would, and also due to the fact that I had to know days in advance what kind of move I'd want to watch. Sometimes my mood would change and I'd receive movies I didn't feel like watching anymore. I won't have that problem with the aTV since I can find the movie I want, order it, and watch it right away.

So for me aTV is a better service. Although I do like Netflix a lot.

[icruise]

I think it's pretty funny how people are linking to comments from the most biased sources possible -- those who are backing one solution or the other. Of course they're going to say that they're going to win.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by icruise 

I think it's pretty funny how people are linking to comments from the most biased sources possible -- those who are backing one solution or the other. Of course they're going to say that they're going to win.

You're right. This respected voice agrees with you.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

Originally Posted by starman 

It's OK, goMac. We didn't miss you. Really. The thread's been pretty sensible while you were away.

Ya I was wondering why suddenly it was on track for a couple days.

[Dakar the Fourth]

I wouldn't say on track... wasn't there an argument over the PS3s damn form factor?

[icruise]

Originally Posted by Dakar the Fourth 

You're right. This respected voice agrees with you.

Come again?

[Dakar the Fourth]

Originally Posted by icruise 

Come again?

You were making a comment about biased sources, so I thought it'd be funny to link to a source that agrees to you, only to have it turn out that it's just your original post. Making fun of all the linking and circular logic, if you will.

[icruise]

The problem was that clicking that link didn't bring me to my own post. I think it's because I have my "posts per page" settings different from the forum default.

[Dakar the Fourth]

Odd, you'd think the url addys would be universal. Foiled by the damned hampstor.

[icruise]

Yeah, it confused me as well. But if you look at the URL, it has a page number in it (127). With my settings, we're actually on page 631. I did that because it took too long to load the longer pages on the iPhone.

[Dakar the Fourth]

No need to explain yourself. Interesting problem, though. Well not interesting, but you know what I mean.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

It's OK, goMac. We didn't miss you. Really. The thread's been pretty sensible while you were away.

Well, I already apologized to you.

[hyteckit]

BOGO sale on HDDVD at Bestbuy next week. Finally! Too bad, I probably won't be buying any of them. The ones that interest me, I already have. The rest I have no interest in.

The Big Lebowksi >>>> $24.99

Backdraft >>>> $24.99

Shaun Of The Dead >>>> $24.99

Serenity >>>> $24.99

The Mummy >>>> $24.99

The Bourne Identity >>>> $24.99

The Bourne Supremacy >>>> $24.99

Transformers >>>> $29.99

Hot Rod >>>> $29.99

Knocked Up: Unrated >>>> $29.99

Shrek The Third >>>> $29.99

Shooter >>>> $29.99

Smokin’ Aces >>>> $29.99

Disturbia >>>> $29.99

[Mrjinglesusa]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

BOGO sale on HDDVD at Bestbuy next week.
The Bourne Identity >>>> $24.99

The Bourne Supremacy >>>> $24.99

I'm all over that.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

That's funny, another big industry insider disagrees.

The Steve is almost always right, but he's also almost always 5-7 years too early.

There's no sustainable bandwidth for true HD w/ discreet surround, for that many people. It'll happen, it's just not happening any time in the near future.

[starman]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

The Steve is almost always right, but he's also almost always 5-7 years too early.

There's no sustainable bandwidth for true HD w/ discreet surround, for that many people. It'll happen, it's just not happening any time in the near future.

Exactly. It's a good idea, but just years too early.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

There's no sustainable bandwidth for true HD w/ discreet surround, for that many people. It'll happen, it's just not happening any time in the near future.

Sure there is. Cable right now already has the bandwidth, and they are rapidly upgrading to free up even more bandwidth (not to mention FIOS is coming onto the market..)

DOCSIS 3.0 will give cable up to 9 gigabits/s per 100 homes...
CLEC - Technical - DSL Prime: The Fastest Cable in North America

DOCSIS 3.0 isn't too far away, and should be widely available by the time everyone and their grandmother is downloading hd content with 5.1 sound. In the meantime, the existing bandwidth is more than enough for the initial group of users.

[analogue SPRINKLES]

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT VOD OR HOW FAST SOME PRIVILEGED PEOPLES INTERNET CONNECTION IS!

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Sure there is. Cable right now already has the bandwidth, and they are rapidly upgrading to free up even more bandwidth (not to mention FIOS is coming onto the market..)

DOCSIS 3.0 will give cable up to 9 gigabits/s per 100 homes...
CLEC - Technical - DSL Prime: The Fastest Cable in North America

DOCSIS 3.0 isn't too far away, and should be widely available by the time everyone and their grandmother is downloading hd content with 5.1 sound. In the meantime, the existing bandwidth is more than enough for the initial group of users.

No, it isn't ready. No, it isn't fast enough.

It will be, but not yet.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

No, it isn't ready.

No, it isn't yet. But Bluray is hardly ready for mass market either. No finished spec. No players price competitive with the current standard. Lack of titles. Incomplete studio support. No consumer recording. Lack of consumer interest...

By the time Bluray is ready for mass market, internet speeds will be high enough for sustainable downloads to large amounts of people simultaneously. Download speeds are already high enough for about 20% of people on a node to simultaneously download a movie with no noticeable impact.

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

No, it isn't fast enough.

Um, I'm a little new to these calculator things, but 9 gigabit/s for 100 homes is certainly more than fast enough...

[goMac]

Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES 

THIS THREAD IS NOT ABOUT VOD OR HOW FAST SOME PRIVILEGED PEOPLES INTERNET CONNECTION IS!

I'm sorry. I didn't realize cable connections were for privileged people.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

No, it isn't yet. But Bluray is hardly ready for mass market either. No finished spec. No players price competitive with the current standard. Lack of titles. Incomplete studio support. No consumer recording. Lack of consumer interest...

Sounds familiar. Where have I heard this before?

Hmm....

OH! Right! When DVD was new vs. VHS.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

No, it isn't yet. But Bluray is hardly ready for mass market either. No finished spec. No players price competitive with the current standard. Lack of titles. Incomplete studio support. No consumer recording. Lack of consumer interest...

Seems to be plenty of interest to me. In fact, It's tough to find many new titles at my local vendor because of the demand. It's the new standard, it has all the features I want, and it has the quality I demand. That's all good enough for me, and it's good enough for other HT hobbyists too.

By the time Bluray is ready for mass market, internet speeds will be high enough for sustainable downloads to large amounts of people simultaneously. Download speeds are already high enough for about 20% of people on a node to simultaneously download a movie with no noticeable impact.

Blu-ray is already mass market for HT people, far more "mass market" than Laserdisc ever was, especially in the U.S.. Streaming doesn't have the features I want, not by a long shot. I also don't get the feeling of ownership like I do when I buy a disc. I like that feeling, and so do most others in the hobby.

Um, I'm a little new to these calculator things, but 9 gigabit/s for 100 homes is certainly more than fast enough...

Yeah, and we were supposed to have 100Mb power line internet by now too, still waiting on that one. The bandwidth needed on all ends will be squared away by 2015, and then I'll decide if I want to give up ownership of discs. Until then I'm riding the best horse for my wants.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Seems to be plenty of interest to me. In fact, It's tough to find many new titles at my local vendor because of the demand. It's the new standard, it has all the features I want, and it has the quality I demand. That's all good enough for me, and it's good enough for other HT hobbyists too.

I would hardly call Bluray the "new standard"...

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Blu-ray is already mass market for HT people, far more "mass market" than Laserdisc ever was, especially in the U.S.. Streaming doesn't have the features I want, not by a long shot. I also don't get the feeling of ownership like I do when I buy a disc. I like that feeling, and so do most others in the hobby.

Yes, we've had this discussion...

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Yeah, and we were supposed to have 100Mb power line internet by now too, still waiting on that one. The bandwidth needed on all ends will be squared away by 2015, and then I'll decide if I want to give up ownership of discs. Until then I'm riding the best horse for my wants.

Except the cable companies also have a huge vested interest in getting this up and running. They want to do video on demand, and provide channels on demand. While each end user has enough bandwidth (just as each end user today has enough bandwidth to download HD video), the issue is that the network as a whole doesn't have enough capacity for a majority of users to do these things at once. By upgrading the network, cable companies can cut the traditional feeds, and provide all of their content on demand in significantly better quality than they do now.

Upgrading the cable networks isn't just about internet speed, although they'll certainly need the extra speed to compete against fiber to the home. FIOS has been doing very well in the residential markets that it's entered into.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

Sounds familiar. Where have I heard this before?

Hmm....

OH! Right! When DVD was new vs. VHS.

The first DVD player launched in 1996.

DVD's finally surpassed VHS in rentals in 2003.

You do the math. Even by DVD standards, Bluray has a long way to go before it becomes widely adopted by consumers.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

The first DVD player launched in 1996.

DVD's finally surpassed VHS in rentals in 2003.

You do the math. Even by DVD standards, Bluray has a long way to go before it becomes widely adopted by consumers.

Uh, no. DVD players launched on March 11, 1997.

CEA DVD Player Sales

Six years is a LONG time.

[brassplayersrock²]

heh heh heh heh *high fives starman*

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

Uh, no. DVD players launched on March 11, 1997.

CEA DVD Player Sales

My bad. The Japanese launch was in 96.

Originally Posted by starman 

Six years is a LONG time.

Which is kind of sort of my point, is it not?

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

I would hardly call Bluray the "new standard"...

For HT buffs, it's the new standard. Lay still, it'll only hurt for a little while.

Yes, we've had this discussion...

Yet you continue to ignore the points.

Except the cable companies also have a huge vested interest in getting this up and running. They want to do video on demand, and provide channels on demand. While each end user has enough bandwidth (just as each end user today has enough bandwidth to download HD video), the issue is that the network as a whole doesn't have enough capacity for a majority of users to do these things at once. By upgrading the network, cable companies can cut the traditional feeds, and provide all of their content on demand in significantly better quality than they do now.

Upgrading the cable networks isn't just about internet speed, although they'll certainly need the extra speed to compete against fiber to the home. FIOS has been doing very well in the residential markets that it's entered into.

and it'll take about 5-7 years before systems are all go and minds change in regards to ownership.

Ok, that was fun. We done here?

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by starman 

Sounds familiar. Where have I heard this before?

Hmm....

OH! Right! When DVD was new vs. VHS.

The Blu-Ray vs. DVD has very little comparison to the DVD vs. VHS. The number of features DVD had that VHS didn't were so numerous that VHS never stood a chance. Pretty much the only thing Blu-Ray brings to the table over DVD is better audio and video. Most people are going to need a bit more than that to replace their entire collections...

[icruise]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

The Blu-Ray vs. DVD has very little comparison to the DVD vs. VHS. The number of features DVD had that VHS didn't were so numerous that VHS never stood a chance. Pretty much the only thing Blu-Ray brings to the table over DVD is better audio and video. Most people are going to need a bit more than that to replace their entire collections...

I don't see most people replacing their collection like they did with VHS -- hell, I'm not going to do it except for my favorite movies -- but I do see people switching new purchases to Blu-ray, especially because the studios are likely to start favoring Blu-ray over DVD soon.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Yet you continue to ignore the points.

Because it's a different discussion. I talk about mass market. You talk about HT buffs. You're trying to have an entirely different conversation. I've already acknowledged your points, but again, you're not talking about the same thing.

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

and it'll take about 5-7 years before systems are all go and minds change in regards to ownership.

But see, that's the thing. Even if it does take a few years for digital downloads to go mass market (I think 5-7 years is a bit of a stretch, again, the bandwidth is already here for the end user...), Bluray still has years to go before it is also mass market. The argument is that digital downloads won't win against Bluray because the market isn't ready for digital downloads. The fallacy of that argument is that the general market hasn't shown itself ready for Bluray either. It's going to be more of a question of which camp can interest consumers more first. And honestly, the digital downloads camp has a lot more carrots for your average consumer than the Bluray camp does.

Digital download camp has a solution for sending home videos to your TV. Bluray doesn't. Digital download camp has a solution for getting photos to your tv. Bluray? Nothing really standard. The digital camp can get music to your tv. Bluray camp? I guess they have standard audio cd's.

When you look at it, a consumer is going to be far more interested in a box that can handle multiple types of digital media instead of just one type. As it stands, the PS3 is the Bluray camps closest answer, but let's face it, the PS3's media UI is awful compared to the AppleTV/FrontRow. And the form factor just isn't appealing to most non-gaming consumers. Not to mention the price tag.

[olePigeon]

Originally Posted by icruise 

I don't see most people replacing their collection like they did with VHS -- hell, I'm not going to do it except for my favorite movies -- but I do see people switching new purchases to Blu-ray, especially because the studios are likely to start favoring Blu-ray over DVD soon.

Ditto. Whatever the format, I'm only buying select movies in HD. Obvious contenders are movies like Star Trek: First Contact, ALIEN, TRON, etc.; but Breakfast Club, Goonies, and The Ninth Gate really don't need to be in HD.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

The Blu-Ray vs. DVD has very little comparison to the DVD vs. VHS. The number of features DVD had that VHS didn't were so numerous that VHS never stood a chance. Pretty much the only thing Blu-Ray brings to the table over DVD is better audio and video. Most people are going to need a bit more than that to replace their entire collections...

Replace a collection? I guess I could, but that's thousands of titles and I don't see that being necessary. Sure, some of my favorites will be (and have been) re-purchased, but that's just a very small %. Currently I'm mostly just buying new titles on Blu-ray and I doubt that will be changing any time soon. Hell, I still have many of my most-loved movies on Laserdisc, and I still watch them, they're either Hi-Vision or rare releases that aren't even on DVD. There are even a very few VHS movies on my shelves, but most of them have been copied to DVD.

[starman]

Originally Posted by icruise 

I don't see most people replacing their collection like they did with VHS -- hell, I'm not going to do it except for my favorite movies -- but I do see people switching new purchases to Blu-ray, especially because the studios are likely to start favoring Blu-ray over DVD soon.

True. DVD had significant advantages to VHS. However, we're entering an age of HD and I don't see 480p lasting much longer.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Because it's a different discussion. I talk about mass market. You talk about HT buffs. You're trying to have an entirely different conversation. I've already acknowledged your points, but again, you're not talking about the same thing.



But see, that's the thing. Even if it does take a few years for digital downloads to go mass market (I think 5-7 years is a bit of a stretch, again, the bandwidth is already here for the end user...), Bluray still has years to go before it is also mass market. The argument is that digital downloads won't win against Bluray because the market isn't ready for digital downloads. The fallacy of that argument is that the general market hasn't shown itself ready for Bluray either. It's going to be more of a question of which camp can interest consumers more first. And honestly, the digital downloads camp has a lot more carrots for your average consumer than the Bluray camp does.

Digital download camp has a solution for sending home videos to your TV. Bluray doesn't. Digital download camp has a solution for getting photos to your tv. Bluray? Nothing really standard. The digital camp can get music to your tv. Bluray camp? I guess they have standard audio cd's.

When you look at it, a consumer is going to be far more interested in a box that can handle multiple types of digital media instead of just one type. As it stands, the PS3 is the Bluray camps closest answer, but let's face it, the PS3's media UI is awful compared to the AppleTV/FrontRow. And the form factor just isn't appealing to most non-gaming consumers. Not to mention the price tag.

Number of Blu-Ray commercials and ads I see: lots
Number of digital download ads I see: zero

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Because it's a different discussion. I talk about mass market. You talk about HT buffs. You're trying to have an entirely different conversation. I've already acknowledged your points, but again, you're not talking about the same thing.

But see, that's the thing. Even if it does take a few years for digital downloads to go mass market (I think 5-7 years is a bit of a stretch, again, the bandwidth is already here for the end user...), Bluray still has years to go before it is also mass market. The argument is that digital downloads won't win against Bluray because the market isn't ready for digital downloads. The fallacy of that argument is that the general market hasn't shown itself ready for Bluray either. It's going to be more of a question of which camp can interest consumers more first. And honestly, the digital downloads camp has a lot more carrots for your average consumer than the Bluray camp does.

Digital download camp has a solution for sending home videos to your TV. Bluray doesn't. Digital download camp has a solution for getting photos to your tv. Bluray? Nothing really standard. The digital camp can get music to your tv. Bluray camp? I guess they have standard audio cd's.

When you look at it, a consumer is going to be far more interested in a box that can handle multiple types of digital media instead of just one type. As it stands, the PS3 is the Bluray camps closest answer, but let's face it, the PS3's media UI is awful compared to the AppleTV/FrontRow. And the form factor just isn't appealing to most non-gaming consumers. Not to mention the price tag.

HT enthusiast media IS my mass-market, which is Blu-ray's target. I don't really care what the Wal-Mart crowd is going to do about their movie needs over the next several years. Some will migrate to Blu-ray, some will try streaming rentals, but most will keep buying DVDs at $7-9 a pop.

BDs are superior in quality, so that's what I'm buying. When streaming HD is superior to Blu-ray I'll give it an earnest look.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

HT enthusiast media IS my mass-market, which is Blu-ray's target.

And if you were the center of the universe that would be great...

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

I don't really care what the Wal-Mart crowd is going to do about their movie needs over the next several years. Some will migrate to Blu-ray, some will try streaming rentals, but most will keep buying DVDs at $7-9 a pop.

You care enough to argue with me about what the "Wal-Mart" crowd will do.

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

BDs are superior in quality, so that's what I'm buying. When streaming HD is superior to Blu-ray I'll give it an earnest look.

And I've already said I have no issue with that, but that I don't think that the quality disparity between online (and again, it's not streaming) and Bluray is going to matter for your average consumer. Yes, it matters for you. That's fine.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

Number of Blu-Ray commercials and ads I see: lots
Number of digital download ads I see: zero

Really? No iTunes/iPod video ads where you live? No Zune video ads? Nothing about the XBox Live Marketplace? No TiVo/Amazon Unbox ads? No little blurbs at the end of nearly every single TV show telling you that you can download the show on iTunes?

You must live in a strange part of the country...

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

Really? No iTunes/iPod video ads where you live? No Zune video ads? Nothing about the XBox Live Marketplace? No TiVo/Amazon Unbox ads? No little blurbs at the end of nearly every single TV show telling you that you can download the show on iTunes?

You must live in a strange part of the country...

It's called the New York area. No ads for anything above. None. Zero. So if it's not showing in NY (you know, the only market as large as Los Angeles), then nobody gives a sh*t.

[goMac]

Originally Posted by starman 

It's called the New York area. No ads for anything above. None. Zero. So if it's not showing in NY (you know, the only market as large as Los Angeles), then nobody gives a sh*t.

So you're telling me Apple never ran their Fiest "Video for Everybody" ad in New York then? Or the Microsoft doesn't run any Zune ads in New York?

Now the TiVo+Rhapsody+Unbox ads I can understand, those are pretty rare. But I know you guys are getting the "download on iTunes" blurbs at the end of your TV shows. Those are nationally broadcasted by the networks. NBC/SciFi definitely did them before the split. Comedy Central did them last night after the Daily Show and the Colbert Report. And I don't watch Fox very often but I'm pretty sure they tack the same sort of thing onto the end of House.

Do they not show The Daily Show and The Colbert Report in New York?

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by goMac 

And if you were the center of the universe that would be great...

You care enough to argue with me about what the "Wal-Mart" crowd will do.

And I've already said I have no issue with that, but that I don't think that the quality disparity between online (and again, it's not streaming) and Bluray is going to matter for your average consumer. Yes, it matters for you. That's fine.

WTF? I am the center of my universe. Always have been. In 2015 we may even see eye-to-eye on this matter.

Not getting those ads here either, lots of Blu-ray though. In fact, they (Sony) need to cut me a farking check. I'm getting so many calls for BD/HD advice that it's starting to annoy.

[Mrjinglesusa]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

The Blu-Ray vs. DVD has very little comparison to the DVD vs. VHS. The number of features DVD had that VHS didn't were so numerous that VHS never stood a chance. Pretty much the only thing Blu-Ray brings to the table over DVD is better audio and video. Most people are going to need a bit more than that to replace their entire collections...

Errr, for watching movies, other than better video and better audio, what more would I want? In fact, those are two of the features DVD had that VHS didn't. Sure the form factor of Blu-ray is the same as DVD, but other than that, there's not too much similarity.

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa 

Errr, for watching movies, other than better video and better audio, what more would I want? In fact, those are two of the features DVD had that VHS didn't. Sure the form factor of Blu-ray is the same as DVD, but other than that, there's not too much similarity.

The list of things better about DVD over VHS is a lot longer than just better video and audio.

[mrtew]

I think to upgrade to Blu-ray you don't have to buy new copies of all your old DVD's because the backwards compatibility lets you keep them and the upscaling almost makes it seem like you already upgraded your collection to HD. DVD truly replaced VHS after a while but Blu-ray is a really different proposition because it enhances your old collection of movies rather than making them useless junk. Your new $300 machine gives you a new movie collection rather than forcing you to buy a new movie collection.

[TETENAL]

HD DVD did that as well.

[starman]

Originally Posted by goMac 

So you're telling me Apple never ran their Fiest "Video for Everybody" ad in New York then? Or the Microsoft doesn't run any Zune ads in New York?

None. Get over it.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by TETENAL 

HD DVD did that as well.

If HD-DVD had been all that was available then that would have been fine, I would have accepted it with open arms. However, as we all know, it wasn't. I simply preferred Blu-Ray's specs.

[Mrjinglesusa]

Originally Posted by jokell82 

The list of things better about DVD over VHS is a lot longer than just better video and audio.

Where did I say it wasn't?

My point is that Blu-ray offers better picture and better sound than DVD. Other than those two things, what more would one want in a new video format to replace DVD (eventually)?