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sdilley14 · May 17, 2007, 08:34 PM

Hey. I'm looking for some opinions and a little advice here. I've come into some money which now allows me to invest a little bit if I feel so inclined. I'm just wondering what everybodys take is on Apple stock. Where it's at now and potential. It's gone from $50 to $110 over a 52 week period. When the iPhone was announced, the stock soared like crazy. It leveled back off a bit but has been consistently climbing ever since. It's gone from about $85 to $110 over the past three months and has been climbing pretty well the past few days. Now some people think the stock is overvalued. Yahoo has the one year target est. at $123.81. Personally, I think over the period of a year starting today it's going to go well above $123.81. After the release of the iPhone next month, Leopard in October, whenever they come out with updated MBP with LED backlit displays (or 12" MBP and whatever other updates they come out with) and the inevitable iPod update coming sometime between now and Christmas, I see the stock doing well over the next year.

What is everybodys take on it here? Would you get into it if you had the means (or already you already in it)? Why or why not? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated (which online service to go with, etc.)! I have a good $15k or so to work with and I'd rather have that money work for me for a while rather than unloading it on a car or something like that. I've considered CDs and things of that nature, but a 4-6% APY just doesn't seem worthwhile given the rate of return in the market (especially Apple over the past year or so), and paying penalties on it if something comes up and I need it out right away wouldn't be beneficial either.

Thanks guys!

Mithras · May 17, 2007, 10:16 PM

Well, it so happens that I've recently come into a very large sum of money from my uncle Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, who was recently killed in Afghanistan. The thing is, we need about $14,872 to approve the deed transfer from the Afghani bank to its affiliate branch, which is in Bangor, Wisconsin.

I'm so glad you posted this -- I think we can come to a mutually satisfactory agreement, friend.

SpaceMonkey · May 17, 2007, 11:23 PM

I would not invest all $15K in Apple stock.

Mithras · May 17, 2007, 11:59 PM

More seriously, if you haven't maxed out your Roth IRA and regular IRA contributions, that's definitely where the money should go.

Ganesha · May 18, 2007, 12:59 AM

First figure out how much of a paper loss you can tolerate. CDs may be "low returning" to you, but if you put your money into a FDIC insured CD, the effective risk is zero. If you buy Apple stock, and say the iPhone flops, Apple stock could easily drop 20-30%, as by normal measures Apple is overvalued to its current rate of income. Apple stock also has high volatility, which means its price swings up and down more drastically then most other stocks.

If you want liquidity (able to get your money fast) and price stability, look into money market funds. I would advise if you have no emergency savings, to put a sizable part of that 15k into a money market fund. For long term investing index funds are the choice if you don't have time to research stocks, you can always hold a few individual stocks along with them.

sdilley14 · May 18, 2007, 03:19 AM

I'm looking for a relatively short term investment...6 months to a year, and something with high liquidity. I could tolerate a 10-15% loss max. I'm willing to research as much as needed and put a great amount of time into tracking and maintaining whatever I put it in. I'd like to keep it in 6 months to a year but I'd be willing to keep it in longer if it's showing higher returns opposed to the opportunity rate it'd be getting in a CD or MMA (4-6% max). I'm torn here!

riley46 · May 21, 2007, 09:08 AM

If I were to invest that kind of money, I would consider bond. Even though the term is rather long and the returns quiet small, it is much safer without the risks of losing your capital.

Calimus · May 21, 2007, 07:29 PM

Originally Posted by riley46

If I were to invest that kind of money, I would consider bond. Even though the term is rather long and the returns quiet small, it is much safer without the risks of losing your capital.

$15k isn't that much to invest. Bonds are a terrible return. The best bet is to spread it out over 5-6 different stocks and mutual funds. If the whole market has a downturn, then you just ride it out. If you have stocks and funds with long track records, there is little risk of losing money unless you are forced to sell early to get money out.

Peter · May 21, 2007, 07:34 PM

not now, too late to invest IMHO.

Hint: Shell. Merger coming.

Calimus · May 21, 2007, 07:34 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

I'm looking for a relatively short term investment...6 months to a year, and something with high liquidity. I could tolerate a 10-15% loss max. I'm willing to research as much as needed and put a great amount of time into tracking and maintaining whatever I put it in. I'd like to keep it in 6 months to a year but I'd be willing to keep it in longer if it's showing higher returns opposed to the opportunity rate it'd be getting in a CD or MMA (4-6% max). I'm torn here!

If you make anything less that 9-10% on your investments, you're barely keeping ahead of inflation after you pay taxes. If you're getting 5-6% from a MMA, after taxes it's more like 4%. Factor in inflation and you might be worse off then when you put the money in.

peeb · May 21, 2007, 08:46 PM

Do you really need to bring it out after a year? An index tracker is a good long-term bet.
Take a look at the Motley Fool, too.

shifuimam · May 21, 2007, 09:31 PM

I wouldn't really suggest investing in any individual stocks. Look at mutual fund portfolios, instead. You can frequently invest in mutual funds that are completely liquid (no fees or fines for withdrawing money early; you just pay normal captial gains tax), and the return rates can be better - funds are comprised of many stocks chosen by skilled investment groups and companies. You can get a high rate of return while lowering your risk of quick loss.

Chuckit · May 21, 2007, 09:48 PM

Originally Posted by shifuimam

I wouldn't really suggest investing in any individual stocks. Look at mutual fund portfolios, instead. You can frequently invest in mutual funds that are completely liquid (no fees or fines for withdrawing money early; you just pay normal captial gains tax), and the return rates can be better - funds are comprised of many stocks chosen by skilled investment groups and companies. You can get a high rate of return while lowering your risk of quick loss.

Look at the ROI on Apple over the past year and look at any of your mutual funds. I believe the former will be better.

peeb · May 21, 2007, 09:53 PM

Right, but you're rolling the dice if you need to cash out in the short term.

SpaceMonkey · May 21, 2007, 10:00 PM

No offense to anyone here, but you might also try posting your question here

sdilley14 · May 21, 2007, 10:52 PM

Thanks for all the opinions and suggestions guys. I still have some thinking to do. It's driving me nuts seeing Apple go up 1-2% every day while I sit on my hands. I have the feeling it's going to continue that run until the iPhone is released, have another jump on release day, then taper off a week or so afterwards. I think I could easily make 4-6% on it from now to then. That's just my thinking after watching the trend of Apple stock over the past couple years.

I'm going to research some mutual funds though and dig through Motley Fool and see what sort of suggestions I can find on there.

Kerrigan · May 22, 2007, 12:20 AM

OK look, I have this fool-proof way to get a 10% share of $122million. I work out of Nigeria, see, and all I need is your bank account number...

cjrivera · May 22, 2007, 12:47 AM

You could send engadget.com an email saying you have evidence that the iPhone and Leopard are delayed, wait for Apple stock to fall, then buy your shares.
Then when your rumor is found to be false the price of the stock will climb again...

EricTheRed · 01:40 AM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

Hey. I'm looking for some opinions and a little advice here. I've come into some money which now allows me to invest a little bit if I feel so inclined. I'm just wondering what everybodys take is on Apple stock. Where it's at now and potential. It's gone from $50 to $110 over a 52 week period. When the iPhone was announced, the stock soared like crazy. It leveled back off a bit but has been consistently climbing ever since. It's gone from about $85 to $110 over the past three months and has been climbing pretty well the past few days. Now some people think the stock is overvalued. Yahoo has the one year target est. at $123.81. Personally, I think over the period of a year starting today it's going to go well above $123.81. After the release of the iPhone next month, Leopard in October, whenever they come out with updated MBP with LED backlit displays (or 12" MBP and whatever other updates they come out with) and the inevitable iPod update coming sometime between now and Christmas, I see the stock doing well over the next year.

What is everybodys take on it here? Would you get into it if you had the means (or already you already in it)? Why or why not? Any suggestions would be greatly appreciated (which online service to go with, etc.)! I have a good $15k or so to work with and I'd rather have that money work for me for a while rather than unloading it on a car or something like that. I've considered CDs and things of that nature, but a 4-6% APY just doesn't seem worthwhile given the rate of return in the market (especially Apple over the past year or so), and paying penalties on it if something comes up and I need it out right away wouldn't be beneficial either.

Thanks guys!

I trade full time for a living managing my own funds as well as my extended family's funds. Normally tech stocks fall back until end of July but the iPhone hype has kept buying interest and AAPL's price slowly moving upward throughout its normal period of decline. Earlier in the year, AAPL's low expected guidance kept the price of the stock unnaturally low. Most recently, AAPL knocked the leather off of the ball beating its guidance significantly because AAPL didn't just beat its guidance, it destroyed the numbers. Today, Apple just scratched an intraday high of $112.00. The street thinks the stock will run up to $120ish before pulling back a little. By the end of year, AAPL will likely be around $140.00 if it continues to hit its numbers.

All to say AAPL is a good stock with the potential of 30 bucks upside if it meets expected sales expectations and about 20 bucks downside if things go pare-shaped. Go ahead and buy into Apple. You'll make more money than a CD.

Full disclosure: I do not own any AAPL at this time but my MacPro was easily paid for by one AAPL trade. You may want to pick up A Beginners Guide to Short-Term Trading for an overview of what things you need to know if you want to begin getting serious about learning how trading and markets work. Unsolicited advice: Success in investing is mostly measured by one's ability to establish and maintain a vision, and then one's ability to keep one's eye firmly on that vision.

Chuckit · May 22, 2007, 02:43 AM

Originally Posted by cjrivera

You could send engadget.com an email saying you have evidence that the iPhone and Leopard are delayed, wait for Apple stock to fall, then buy your shares.
Then when your rumor is found to be false the price of the stock will climb again...

Sadly, this is probably totally true.

sdilley14 · May 22, 2007, 03:52 AM

Originally Posted by EricTheRed

I trade full time for a living managing my own funds as well as my extended family's funds. Normally tech stocks fall back until end of July but the iPhone hype has kept buying interest and AAPL's price slowly moving upward throughout its normal period of decline. Earlier in the year, AAPL's low expected guidance kept the price of the stock unnaturally low. Most recently, AAPL knocked the leather off of the ball beating its guidance significantly because AAPL didn't just beat its guidance, it destroyed the numbers. Today, Apple just scratched an intraday high of $112.00. The street thinks the stock will run up to $120ish before pulling back a little. By the end of year, AAPL will likely be around $140.00 if it continues to hit its numbers.

All to say AAPL is a good stock with the potential of 30 bucks upside if it meets expected sales expectations and about 20 bucks downside if things go pare-shaped. Go ahead and buy into Apple. You'll make more money than a CD.

Full disclosure: I do not own any AAPL at this time but my MacPro was easily paid for by one AAPL trade. You may want to pick up A Beginners Guide to Short-Term Trading for an overview of what things you need to know if you want to begin getting serious about learning how trading and markets work. Unsolicited advice: Success in investing is mostly measured by one's ability to establish and maintain a vision, and then one's ability to keep one's eye firmly on that vision.

Thank you VERY much for your insight. Don't be surprised if I PM you sometime in the near future for a little advice or some questions I may have.

pman68 · May 23, 2007, 10:05 AM

OK. Couldn't resist anymore. Just bought some today @ 114! Going to ride it until it comes down. I think it it's still going up!

pman68 · May 23, 2007, 11:14 AM

Good day today!

Mrjinglesusa · May 23, 2007, 11:33 AM

Originally Posted by Peter

not now, too late to invest IMHO.

Agreed. You missed the boat on Apple stock. Not a good time to buy right now. You are better off waiting a) for a split (which Apple tends to do when the stock price gets in the $100s) or b) for a dip in price.

Bad idea to buy right after a run up.

pman68 · May 23, 2007, 11:35 AM

Demand for the iPhone is going to lift the stock. And we still have WWDC coming up too.

Chuckit · May 23, 2007, 11:36 AM

Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa

Agreed. You missed the boat on Apple stock. Not a good time to buy right now. You are better off waiting a) for a split (which Apple tends to do when the stock price gets in the $100s) or b) for a dip in price.

Bad idea to buy right after a run up.

People always say that. Then it shoots up a lot more.

rozwado1 · May 23, 2007, 11:21 PM

don't listen to the bears. if you do the research and think it's going up, there's no way to make money unless you get your feet wet. don't buy all at once if you're hesitant. run limit orders on aapl to get the price you feel is reasonable. if it pulls back a bit, see it as a gift and buy with your reserves until you feel it's coming to a peak.

please, please diversify in other things -- all in all, aapl is a volatile tech stock that fluctuates on emotion. way too dangerous to put all eggs in one basket. pickup a few more plays to diversify - financial, defense, infrastructure, medical. check out stockpickr.com to find some example portfolios to think about.

shifuimam · May 23, 2007, 11:46 PM

Originally Posted by Chuckit

Look at the ROI on Apple over the past year and look at any of your mutual funds. I believe the former will be better.

I'm sure that Apple's return has been great lately. But investing in any single stock is always a higher risk than investing in a mixed portfolio/mutual fund of stocks that, overall, will provide less risk and still a good return.

My mother is invested in Vanguard international fund that, to date, has been getting around a 25% return. That's not too shabby - not commonplace, but definitely a good investment!

Nodnarb · May 24, 2007, 12:03 AM

Every time someone posts one of these threads I always want to just punch myself in the head.

I bought 100 shares of AAPL at $34, before the split. Sold at $54 still before the split. Made a nice little chunk of change. But man...I'm missing out on about 18K last I'm I did the math, I don't want to do it again because the math makes me madder each time.

Personally, I don't have the nerve to put my money back in when it's $113. However, for the past year or so I've been saying "I bet even if I put it in now it would still go up, and it does, and I always think it's going to have to go right back down.

I say go for it, if you have the nerve. Unless I'm just crazy and compulsive, you'll be checking it every day, many times a day. Apple stock is unique in that, on any given day, you can gain or lose a sizeable percentage of the stock.

Lateralus · May 24, 2007, 12:46 AM

I bought 30 shares at $93ish. Quite a nice little return in just a few weeks.

Wish I had bought more...

pman68 · May 24, 2007, 04:55 PM

Apple down to $110 again.... sigh

Chuckit · May 24, 2007, 04:57 PM

Yes! Down further! Daddy needs a new pair of Ferraris!

EricTheRed · May 24, 2007, 06:08 PM

Originally Posted by pman68

Apple down to $110 again.... sigh

That's how the market works. Today, AAPL followed the rest of the market down. Because markets only start to make sense to retail investors when a longer period of time is examined, I told sdilley14 that success in investing is largely based on the ability to maintain one's vision. In other worlds, to hold until the investment vision is realized within the timeframe that vision was formed (in this case, end of year ish). In contrast to position trading, short term strategies aren't based on right or wrong investment assumptions but on what the market is doing (up, down, flat).

The market force you don't fully understand is that AAPL is a blessed tech stock everybody likes to start picking up near the end of July. The desire to own when everybody starts scaling in is that AAPL's price rises like clockwork. And many of us purchase the stock because of the predictable pattern the stock takes.

pman68 · Jun 5, 2007, 03:24 PM

AAPL is now trading @ 122!

Lateralus · Jun 5, 2007, 10:12 PM

And AAPL's target was raised today to $140-150 by a few analysts.

I hope it splits soon, because that'd only encourage an even further run. And unless I'm mistaken, this is the highest AAPL has gone without splitting. So hopefully we'll see something soon.

EricTheRed · Jun 5, 2007, 10:42 PM

And guys like myself are now trading AAPL again (WWDC and the iPhone release date).

pman68 · Jul 5, 2007, 10:04 AM

AAPL just hit 131! I hope you did buy some @ $110.

Chuckit · Jul 5, 2007, 10:38 AM

By the by, my prediction: It's still a good time to buy. Once the 3Q earnings are announced, AAPL is going to shoot up. That's my bet.

Dakarʒ · Jul 5, 2007, 10:42 AM

Yeah, I have some money that's coming to me soon and I'm deciding whether I should wait for split or not before investing it. (Not that I have even an average level of knowledge about these things)

RAILhead · Jul 5, 2007, 10:51 AM

Stocks are lame for beginning investors. Go for mutual funds. When your net worth is over 400k or so, then start trading stocks.

Dakarʒ · Jul 5, 2007, 10:55 AM

Originally Posted by RAILhead

Stocks are lame for beginning investors. Go for mutual funds. When your net worth is over 400k or so, then start trading stocks.

I'll remember this.

Chuckit · Jul 5, 2007, 12:02 PM

Originally Posted by RAILhead

Stocks are lame for beginning investors. Go for mutual funds.

Eh, I'm not sure that's good advice in general. Most mutual funds do worse than the market as a whole. Say, the Vanguard 500, sure, but mutual funds by and large seem like a scam to me. I realized this a while back because everyone was telling me a mutual fund was the way to go, but pretty much every one I looked seemed to have a disappointing ROI.

Dakarʒ · Jul 5, 2007, 12:03 PM

Originally Posted by Chuckit

Eh, I'm not sure that's good advice in general. Most mutual funds do worse than the market as a whole. Say, the Vanguard 500, sure, but mutual funds by and large seem like a scam to me. I realized this a while back because everyone was telling me a mutual fund was the way to go, but pretty much every one I looked seemed to have a disappointing ROI.

...I'll remember that.

Calimus · Jul 5, 2007, 12:23 PM

Originally Posted by RAILhead

Stocks are lame for beginning investors. Go for mutual funds. When your net worth is over 400k or so, then start trading stocks.

In general I would agree with you, but when you follow a company as closely as many of us follow Apple, you can see things far ahead that can influence the stock. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, or that we can't get burned as much as the next guy, but I bought a bunch when I started seeing the shift in attitudes toward OSX/mac change on sites like Slashdot. Apple stock was around $30 back then and I knew that if the techies were changing their "Macs suck!" attitude that the rest of the market would follow behind them. I saw the same thing happen with Nintendo. I've always been into games and read a ton about the game market. As soon as Nintendo revealed the Wii controller, I saw the same buzz building and bought a bunch of their stock, it's nearly tripled.

Chuckit · Jul 5, 2007, 12:30 PM

I'm still kicking myself for not buying Nintendo then. I could've bought a friggin' house with how much it's gone up.

RAILhead · Jul 5, 2007, 12:45 PM

Depends on term of investment. A lot of people like to try and "get rich quick" by doing stocks, but if you're wanting to amass wealth for years to come, you're better off getting into decent mutual finds for 20+ years.

Read the Millionaire Next Door: Amazon.com: The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy: Books: Thomas J. Stanley,William D. Danko

To make money, do what "rich people" do.

Calimus · Jul 5, 2007, 12:49 PM

I just wish I was had a bigger stash of cash to drop in. I'm just starting out, haven't got a house yet, raising my first child with my wife, so I only had like $1000 "play money" to invest in Nintendo. Still a good return though, but it's tough knowing that I saw it coming, but didn't have the cash to make some really good money on the deal.

Calimus · Jul 5, 2007, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by RAILhead

Depends on term of investment. A lot of people like to try and "get rich quick" by doing stocks, but if you're wanting to amass wealth for years to come, you're better off getting into decent mutual finds for 20+ years.

Read the Millionaire Next Door: Amazon.com: The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy: Books: Thomas J. Stanley,William D. Danko

To make money, do what "rich people" do.

That's my plan for the most part, I've got a good balance of mutual funds, I'm just saying when you have a pretty good window into an industry such as many of us have with Apple, it's a pretty good side investment. I certainly wouldn't bet the farm on single stocks.

Chuckit · Jul 5, 2007, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by RAILhead

Depends on term of investment. A lot of people like to try and "get rich quick" by doing stocks, but if you're wanting to amass wealth for years to come, you're better off getting into decent mutual finds for 20+ years.

I don't quite see it. A fund that's beaten by the market for 20 years isn't any better than a fund that is outperformed for six months — actually, it's worse, because your losses are compounding over all that time. That's just a mathematical fact. Is there something I'm missing?

SpaceMonkey · Jul 5, 2007, 09:53 PM

Originally Posted by Chuckit

I don't quite see it. A fund that's beaten by the market for 20 years isn't any better than a fund that is outperformed for six months — actually, it's worse, because your losses are compounding over all that time. That's just a mathematical fact. Is there something I'm missing?

What you are missing is that there are a whole lot of mutual funds out there that don't get beaten by the market, because they track the market. The S&P 500 is only one. There are index funds that track the total stock market, different market caps, foreign markets, different bond markets, the works.