[Eug]

OK, I don't get it.

The NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 are all down today, yet AAPL is up $4.30 (3.05%) at the moment, at $145.28.

Why?

Is it because Motorola is splitting up?

[G4ME]

why would that effect AAPL?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by G4ME 

why would that effect AAPL?

Well, that's what I'm asking. The only reason I mention it is because Motorola is a major maker of phone handsets, and the iPhone is eating into their sales.

It's interesting is that despite Motorola's announcement of a split, its stock is going nowhere, yet at the same time AAPL is going up, despite there being little other news about Apple.

Motorola to split in 2009 | U.S. | Reuters

Or perhaps people are believing the rumours of a big 3G iPhone order?

MacNN | Gartner: Apple ordering massive 3G iPhone numbers

I didn't think much of that rumour, cuz even if it were true, it was to be expected. However, maybe the investors think differently.

In any case, the bottom line is I have no good explanation for AAPL's $4+ rise today, when the markets in general today are depressed in the US.

[peeb]

AAPL is notoriously volatile. It's pretty hard to interpret AAPL stock changes as 'meaning' anything.

[Eug]

Yeah, it's probably just AAPL inherent volatility. We could do with more of this type of volatility though.

AAPL closed up over 4 bux to $145.06. It's dropped a little in after hours though.

[Tesselator]

Apple is making many new friends in the movie and music business so
they and others might be manipulating the AAPL values a bit. It would
be in their own interests to do so I think.

I'm not suggesting anything sinister here. These are common practices
for corporations. I also think that AAPL "enthusiasts" cause allot of the
volatility that we see in the graphs.

[Eug]

It's not reflected on this graph yet, but gold is now under $900. It's about time.

Originally Posted by Eug 

The NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and S&P 500 are all down today, yet AAPL is up $4.30 (3.05%) at the moment, at $145.28.

Down to $143.5 yesterday, but it's nice at least to see AAPL keeping its head about the $140 mark.

[Shaddim]

Fantastic day! Made quite a tidy sum off those bargains I picked up, mainly financials. Also, got out of some AAPL at 147.5, the shares I picked up at 130, but it was a good profit.

[Eug]

Yeah, sweet day for the market in general, but esp. so for AAPL. Up over $6 (4%) to $149.53. Even better for PALM though, as it was up 8.6%. I guess nobody told them they're dead.

Meanwhile gold is down to $880.

[Big Mac]

For those who don't watch AAPL as closely as some of us, it's good to note that AAPL is considered a leading indicator for the general market.

[peeb]

Considered by who exactly?

[Big Mac]

Market professionals.

[peeb]

Can you show anything to support this claim? I think it's bogus.

[scottiB]

AAPL is a member of the S&P 500. Inclusion in that, alone, means it's an indicator.

[peeb]

Ah, you obviously mean something different by the term 'leading indicator for the general market'. I agree that the SP500 is, but the individual stocks in it are not typically used as indicators of the general market. That's why it is the S&P500.

[scottiB]

I agree (and misread what Big Mac wrote. There can be no one stock--or very few-- that is indicative of the DOW/NASDAQ, etc. In the past, both GM, IBM, and perhaps Westingouse could be indicators ("What's good the General Motors is good for America.").

Apple could be a fair-ish indicator for consumer spending since it's moved beyond a computer company; AAPL was added to the S&P 500 in the past year.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by scottiB 

AAPL is a member of the S&P 500. Inclusion in that, alone, means it's an indicator.

Really? Wow, that's bizarre! That's like adding Joe's Bar & Grill to the S&P... I'm a bit shocked!

Oh, whew! it was all a misunderstanding!

[ThinkInsane]

Take your little personality conflict to PM. You two don't like each other. We get it. We also don't care.

[Powerbook]

Can someone give me their opinion of CCIX (Coleman Cable) please... why is the stock not moving? Is that the general market or this market segment or specifically the company???

Regards
PB.

[peeb]

Thinkinsane - It's kind of you to edit out Big Mac's latest embarrassment. It would be nice if you could indicate when you delete people's posts though - when you do that without explaining what you are doing, it is misleading and can make it look like posters are saying things they are not.

[Tesselator]

So that's it? Starting monday gold is starting to go back up and AAPL plus
others are going to start going down. Like it was in past weeks? I'm being
told that "soon" it'll start off like that all over again.

I sure hope that's wrong!

here's the live graphs again:




AAPL in Blue

[Eug]

Let's see how well AAPL does today but:

MacNN | Analyst raises AAPL target to $195 on Mac growth

In the meantime, in pre-market trading, AAPL was $155.55 (up $2.47).

[Tesselator]

Well it's still up. Between 155 and 160... I can't figure out why though.
Did Mr. B devalue the dollar some more recently or something? <shrug>

YouTube - Ron Paul on the Glen Beck Program (PT.1of2) 4-1-08
YouTube - Ron Paul on the Glen Beck Program (PT.2of2) 4-1-08

[Powerbook]

Okay, it seems CCIX is doing fine these last days. I'm nearly back in the green numbers. Don't know of any fundamental changes to warrant that, but I don't complain...

Regards
PB-

[Eug]

I was back in the green with AAPL a couple of days ago, but now back in the red. The underperform rating yesterday by Morgan Keegan certainly didn't help, nor did the generally negative air to the markets.

AAPL: 150.94 Down 1.90 (1.24%)

I stupidly bought at about $156, a few hours before Apple released their last quarter's numbers. It was Apple's best quarter ever:

Apple shipped 2,319,000 Macintosh® computers, representing 44 percent unit growth and 47 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. The Company sold 22,121,000 iPods during the quarter, representing five percent unit growth and 17 percent revenue growth over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone™ sales were 2,315,000.

“We’re thrilled to report our best quarter ever, with the highest revenue and earnings in Apple’s history,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “We have an incredibly strong new product pipeline for 2008, starting with MacBook Air, Mac Pro and iTunes Movie Rentals in the first two weeks.”

However, the stock dropped like a rock after that presumably partially because of Apple's less than stellar guidance for this quarter and because they didn't meet some analysts' outrageously optimistic predictions... despite being the quarter being Apple's biggest ever.

I wonder if on April 23 AAPL will climb, or will drop again like a rock. Yeah, I know, sell on news. However, the last time I sold just before the news, the stock jumped way higher after the quarterly results were released.

In the meantime, gold is $930ish. I'm still thinking gold will be under $900 in the coming months. It was under $900 last week, and I think a price (well) under $900 is appropriate once the speculators start backing off more.

[Tesselator]

I think within the next 4 to 6 months gold will be over $2,000 - Unless they
pull some tricks to TRY and cheat the numbers that's really the only conclusion
that one could arrive at if there's even a modest understanding of the market
and the events that have taken place during the past 3 or 4 years.

Likewise what else could they do but put out "negative air", lie to the people?

Seriously what Greenspan did in his last year and a half or two and what Mr. B
has done since he got in is just crazy. Actually and honestly insane. I don't
understand how anyone could "buy stock" in this weather - seriously. The
dollar has been devalued a little over 50% just since a little before this thread
started and they're about to give the evil Fed all kinds of secret powers with
absolutely no oversights. The dollar value alone negates the growth you've
listed here.

So I guess the stock is priced about right then. It's down from over $200 a
share to like $150 when if the dollar had not been devalued and the market
was not extremely inflated it would be $300 or more just based on Apple's
performance.

It sure looks like we're about to enter a similar "hyper-inflation" phase just
about the same as Germany saw pre WWII if the current indicators are correct.
Unless someone is in the market "just for fun" and doesn't have real financial
stake in it then people probably shouldn't be in it. Just my opinion but one
which is shared by all the people (analysts, etc.) I respect and one that was
never voiced by them in the years past. I've watched and participated in the
stock market since the 60's and while there have been moments of trepidation
I've never seen it looking quite this bad.

[Powerbook]

Apple stock, WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Powerbook 

Apple stock, WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?

Volatility I guess, and the fact the market today in general sucks. The NASDAQ is down over 2% overall so the fact that AAPL is down 4% doesn't surprise me (especially consider its recent runup).

[Mrjinglesusa]

Originally Posted by Powerbook 

Apple stock, WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?

You'll go crazy if you follow APPL day to day and wonder why it fluctuates and try to think of reasons for it being down on any given day. There are none. APPL is a good stock backed by a good company. In the long term, it isn't going anywhere but up.

Anytime it drops for no apparent reason I figure it's profit takers selling at pre-set exit points. When it goes up for no apparent reason I figure it's people getting back in at pre-set entry points.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by Mrjinglesusa 

You'll go crazy if you follow APPL day to day and wonder why it fluctuates and try to think of reasons for it being down on any given day. There are none. APPL is a good stock backed by a good company. In the long term, it isn't going anywhere but up.

Problem here is, I'm in not via AAPL directly but via stock options, type knock-out. When AAPL is volatile, those options are a roller coaster. I lost some 20% today. Still some 5% plus left, but I guess I sell everything off on Monday morning if there is no positive sign in the first 15 minutes of trade. That's a 10.000 € position and I can't lose that.

****.

PB.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Powerbook 

Problem here is, I'm in not via AAPL directly but via stock options, type knock-out. When AAPL is volatile, those options are a roller coaster. I lost some 20% today. Still some 5% plus left, but I guess I sell everything off on Monday morning if there is no positive sign in the first 15 minutes of trade. That's a 10.000 € position and I can't lose that.

****.

PB.

You invest money that you can't afford to lose into OPTIONS ?

Sorry, dude, you're a greedy idiot.

-t

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Powerbook 

Apple stock, WTF?!?!?!?!?!?!?

GE stock, yo!

Since GE reported worse than expected, and they're considered a "barometer for the overall market," the idea is, "if things are bad enough that GE is in trouble, then we must PANIC!!!!!!!1111oneoneeleven"

[peeb]

You know, Apple is considered by market professionals to be a leading indicator of the market.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by peeb 

You know, Apple is considered by market professionals to be a leading indicator of the market.

Yes, the tech market.

GE is representative of the market as a whole. Apple is not.

[peeb]

No no, it really is, I have it on the highest authority.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

You invest money that you can't afford to lose into OPTIONS ?

Sorry, dude, you're a greedy idiot.

-t

Well, thank you very much, for your - as always - brilliant observation.
I have been doing this for some years now and at a rate of being 90% successful. The pace of options suits me better than stocks. All you need is DISCIPLINE to let a position go and use StopLoss and StopBuy at all times.

PB.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

GE stock, yo!

Since GE reported worse than expected, and they're considered a "barometer for the overall market," the idea is, "if things are bad enough that GE is in trouble, then we must PANIC!!!!!!!1111oneoneeleven"

Indeed.,.. add some "we are in recession" and "the house bubble burst" side-effects. Even more voodoo in the stock exchanges than ever... Oh well. What goes around comes around.

PB.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

You invest money that you can't afford to lose into OPTIONS ?

Heh. That's what I was thinking...

AAPL is volatile enough as it is. If you're into options, you'd better be able to deal with the risk.

Originally Posted by Powerbook 

I have been doing this for some years now and at a rate of being 90% successful.

Well, then, you don't have much to complain about.

Originally Posted by Person Man 

GE stock, yo!

Since GE reported worse than expected, and they're considered a "barometer for the overall market," the idea is, "if things are bad enough that GE is in trouble, then we must PANIC!!!!!!!1111oneoneeleven"

Actually, given that GE dropped 13%, I'm almost impressed that the stock market only dropped a couple of percent given how skittish so many people are these days.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by Eug 

AAPL is volatile enough as it is. If you're into options, you'd better be able to deal with the risk.

Hmm, it was okay for the last weeks imho. I figured a slowly but steady climbing at least to the quarterlies.

Originally Posted by Eug 

Well, then, you don't have much to complain about.

Yes and no. Generally I'm doing well with my riskier options and certificates, especially for such a crazy market (doing worse with my long-term stocks though). I'm "just" missing the winnings I had 24 hours ago... I did not foresee that massacre today!

PB.

[Eug]

Hmmm... I was expecting a another 1-2% drop in AAPL today, given that more banks are reporting losses.

AAPL (and the markets in general) started off down, but now AAPL has gone back up, even despite the news that China Mobile isn't seriously talking with Apple even after all this time.

P.S. It's been a while now, but I'm impressed that Apple is actually worth more than Citigroup now. Wowsers. (Citigroup was worth $274 billion in 2006.)

[wolfen]

I am not optimistic about the next 5 years. I'm fairly sure things are going downhill nationally and globally. I guess everything needs a reboot, eventually.

[peeb]

It's going to be painful, but it's also an opportunity to think about alternatives. Reinvigorate the idea of sustainable local economies.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Hmmm... I was expecting a another 1-2% drop in AAPL today, given that more

Yep, wasn't bad today... Probably a green week for AAPL even if the surroundings (Wachovia?!) are negative.

Regards
PB.

[Eug]

Hmmm... A little too much of a coincidence:

SYMB CLOSE Aft.Hrs
----------------
AAPL +0.60 -0.60
INTC +0.24 -0.24
MSFT +0.19 -0.19
DELL +0.04 -0.04
CSCO -0.20 +0.20
NVDA +0.21 -0.21

It seems the stock reporting sites are getting incorrect information. When I checked around 5 pm, many were up quite a bit, buoyed by Intel's quarterly results/guidance.

[Cold Warrior]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Yes, the tech market.

GE is representative of the market as a whole. Apple is not.

GE is down 20% over the past 8 years, while the S&P 500 is up 9%. GE has become a so-so company that I wouldn't own if someone gave me the shares.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Hmmm... A little too much of a coincidence:

SYMB CLOSE Aft.Hrs
----------------
AAPL +0.60 -0.60
INTC +0.24 -0.24
MSFT +0.19 -0.19
DELL +0.04 -0.04
CSCO -0.20 +0.20
NVDA +0.21 -0.21

It seems the stock reporting sites are getting incorrect information. When I checked around 5 pm, many were up quite a bit, buoyed by Intel's quarterly results/guidance.

These were some numbers just before 5.

Solid results from Intel (INTC) has triggered a wave of after-hours enthusiasm for PC-related stocks. Among the gainers in the late session:

Logitech (LOGI) is up $2.25, or 9.3%
Apple (AAPL) is up $2.56, or 1.7%
Microsoft (MSFT) is up 32 cents or 1.1%
AMD (AMD) is up 20 cents or 3.5%
Nvidia (NVDA) is up 49 cents or 2.7%
Dell (DELL) is up 19 cents, or 1%.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) is up 33 cents, or 0.7%.

[Eug]

^^^ Yep. It was a computer glitch.

AAPL closed yesterday at $148.38, but opened today at $151.76.
It closed today at $153.70, and then ended the day after-hours at $155.07.
That's $6.69 over yesterday's close, up 4.5%.

Meanwhile, Apple hit 6.6% in US PC sales, up from 5.2% one year ago, with growth of 32.5%. Impressive.
To achieve that, they shipped 1.01 million Macs last quarter in the US, compared to 0.76 million one year ago.



That's almost as many as they shipped in Q4 2007 (1.035 million), which is impressive since Q1 is normally a slow quarter

[Tesselator]

That's good news for Apple.

I wonder how that correlates to this: West Wing: The Madness of Ben Bernanke - International - SPIEGEL ONLINE - News ???

Or will it be that every tent-family has four sleeping bags and an Apple computer?

[analogika]

iPhone, of course.

[Eug]

The rise yesterday and today has been nice, but the crappy US$ sure isn't helping those of us buying AAPL from outside the US. Since I purchased, the US$ has depreciated several percent.

---

eBay is down 4% in early trading. Why? I dunno, cuz they beat analysts' expectations, and they had a (slightly) better forecast than expected as well. I guess that the market had better expectations than even the analysts did.

This makes me wonder about April 23. There's no doubt Apple will beat its own guidance, but that doesn't mean much. However, even if Apple slightly beats analysts' expectations and forecasts, there's always the possibility of another drop after the announcement, like eBay did.