[Eug]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

So with that said you can go back to sleep I guess... Ya?

Good luck.

But I have a question.

Imagine a group of guys who say in advance that they plan to build a house and publish a
book about it. And then they go to the bank and take out a loan for about the amount needed
to build a house (which creates public records). And then they go to the hardware store and
buy all the tools needed to build a house and make those purchase receipts public. And then
the same for the materials and the land. And then they are seen out pouring concrete into
forms that look like are for a house's foundation on that same land and with those same tools.

At what point is it safe to assume that those men are building a house or honestly intent to?

No. They're building a bunker for when the economy suffers a 14 Jiggawatt nuclear implosion leaving Resident Evilian mutants who roam the earth eating people's brains.



P.S. It's easier for a Resident Evilian mutant to eat the brain of a man than a woman. See here. So if you're a man, you might want to get a sex change operation in preparation for the apocalypse. And a bunker.

[Tesselator]

LOL...

Hey look.. it's that guy who bought Apple stock yesterday... Wow I had no idea
it affected his dog like that. Poor mutt.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

LOL...

Hey look.. it's that guy who bought Apple stock yesterday... Wow I had no idea
it affected his dog like that. Poor mutt.

WTF? I bought it yesterday and I'm still in the black.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

WTF? I bought it yesterday and I'm still in the black.

You mean you are still in the black for SOME of the stock you bought. Your ~200 stock purchases for $150 and $140 are currently in the red.

So you have: (130*300) + (140*100) + (150*100) = $68,000
Current rate: 500*135.6 = $67,800

You are in the red as a whole. Sorry

Probably will be black tomorrow though, so no worries.

[SirCastor]

And practically speaking, the stock is going to go up, so you're going to get more an more value. Just not today or tomorrow.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

You mean you are still in the black for SOME of the stock you bought. Your ~200 stock purchases for $150 and $140 are currently in the red.

So you have: (130*300) + (140*100) + (150*100) = $68,000
Current rate: 500*135.6 = $67,800

You are in the red as a whole. Sorry

Probably will be black tomorrow though, so no worries.

Oh well, close enough.

[Tesselator]

I wonder what it will be like in 6 months?

There seem to be a whole heck of allot of economists (not you're average
Joes off the street) saying that in the not so distant future (probably less
than 24 months) that your apple stock will be worthless (in dollars anyway).
And I really mean zero. I dunno. I just listen and research and listen some
more, and consider who it is I'm listening to, and research some more.

[Railroader]

Who would use a computer from a company that essentially failed over 10 years ago? Do they even make Apples anymore?

[chris v]

Beleaguered. Death knell. Etc.

[hyteckit]

AAPL is back down to $130 for those who are interested.

Man, another roller coaster day.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Railroader 

Who would use a computer from a company that essentially failed over 10 years ago? Do they even make Apples anymore?

Well, no, it's not like that. I mean ALL stocks - not just Apple.

That's what some are saying anyway. Hey! It's not my prediction!

The general opinion is that we're due for a system-wide break down. And the only variance
seems to be on when it will happen. Some are saying starting NOW! some say it's already
going on and the SEVENTY-FIVE! point cut along with no M5 and other things are just a
deceptive mask that can't last long. Yet others say steady and sharp decreases over the
next 2 to 3 years. But almost no one except the tinker-toy Fox fruits and their likes are saying
there will be continued prosperities, recoveries, and etc. About 2/3 of the guys I've listened to
say that for various reasons we're locked into this eventual crash or slide with no way out.
They give reasons which sound right to me.

How credible is all this? Well, I dunno but I don't think credible economists who have spent
most of their career just building a reputation are going to start recommending against any
and all stocks and bonds as a sound investment strategy if there isn't something to it. They
often say the same thing about property (recently) too so I dunno what's left... the Euro? <shrug>

I can tell you one thing. I've heard doom-sayers before but never this wide spread and never
from such reputable sources - so what's the reason? What's going on?

[torsoboy]

I hope I make a million bucks from my new apple stocks (all 15 of them), but if I don't I figure life will go on. People with, oh I don't know, say $70k in new apple stocks might have a harder time with a big loss though.

[Shaddim]

Meh, it would suck, but it's not a huge deal.

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

I can tell you one thing. I've heard doom-sayers before but never this wide spread and never
from such reputable sources - so what's the reason? What's going on?

List your reputable sources. Seriously.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

List your reputable sources. Seriously.

Uh oh, now he's actually gonna post them.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

List your reputable sources. Seriously.

That's what I was thinking. With all of these awesome sources he has some of them must be recognizable by the general population, right?

[Tesselator]

Geez, you guys don't read or listen to many financial news sources I take it. (???)

I guess... most of them want money for it anyway so it figures.

[Shaddim]

Yeah, yeah, one guy caused the global markets to collapse, big woop.


Actually, I am impressed that one person can do that much damage.

[Tesselator]

So i guess it's going to hang around 130 for awhile huh?
Still wish I could jump ahead and see it in 6 months.
Where's the fast forward button on this thing anyway?

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

Geez, you guys don't read or listen to many financial news sources I take it. (???)

Sure. I read Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, Business magazine, and Time. NONE of those contain people forecasting the complete crash you say is going to happen. So, I'd like to see YOUR sources? Why so defensive? After all, they are reputable sources, right?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Sure. I read Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, Business magazine, and Time. NONE of those contain people forecasting the complete crash you say is going to happen. So, I'd like to see YOUR sources? Why so defensive? After all, they are reputable sources, right?

He's posted his sources already, in another thread.

Trust me, you don't want to trudge through those.

[Tesselator]

I did?

K, anyway... Most of the analysts at the rags named above are indeed predicting
a crash in the not so distant future. Of course IN the rags or in any media outlet
the most they'll say or suggest is "it's a day trader's market" and "The fed needs
to correct this". But those two things are pretty much code for "get out while you
have your shirt - we're in need os a miracle here". As anyone knows the perception
of the market and its stability is one of the most important factors of the market
and telling the truth to the sheeple (mass media) is usually the last thing you want
to do - especially in the current climate.

Most of these guys conduct back-room discussions or let fly commentary away
from the hordes. These are usually very good indicators of where we actually are
as opposed to the perception of where the sheeple are led to believe we are. A
few indicators exist that need no secret comments or backroom hints however.

Whatever, the fact remains that a house of cards can only be built so high before
it all falls down. Whether it collapses this month or is able prolong its doom for
another year or five is only a matter of manipulatory skill and interest on the part
of those most interested and capable.

- I hope that didn't sound all pompous and stuff. It wasn't meant to.

[torsoboy]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

I did?

K, anyway... Most of the analysts at the rags named above are indeed predicting
a crash in the not so distant future. Of course IN the rags or in any media outlet
the most they'll say or suggest is "it's a day trader's market" and "The fed needs
to correct this". But those two things are pretty much code for "get out while you
have your shirt - we're in need os a miracle here". As anyone knows the perception
of the market and its stability is one of the most important factors of the market
and telling the truth to the sheeple (mass media) is usually the last thing you want
to do - especially in the current climate.

Most of these guys conduct back-room discussions or let fly commentary away
from the hordes. These are usually very good indicators of where we actually are
as opposed to the perception of where the sheeple are led to believe we are. A
few indicators exist that need no secret comments or backroom hints however.

Whatever, the fact remains that a house of cards can only be built so high before
it all falls down. Whether it collapses this month or is able prolong its doom for
another year or five is only a matter of manipulatory skill and interest on the part
of those most interested and capable.

- I hope that didn't sound all pompous and stuff. It wasn't meant to.

So basically no reputable sources to quote? That's what I got out of that.

[hyteckit]

I'm surprise how well the market held up that last two weeks. But then again we have two weeks of back to back interest rate cuts.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by Dark Goob 

My girl is in our bed crying right now because her Apple stock (on which she thought she had made several grand) is to the point where if it goes down any farther she will start losing money.

This was how she was *hoping* to pay off some of her college loans, was by making money in the stock market. Her $60,000 in college loans.

So not only will we not be able to buy a house like we want to, because they won't lend to people like us anymore because of all the retards who couldn't pay their bills, but also, now I have to not get laid for several weeks.

Idiots. Who runs these banks anyway?

Was there someone actually thinking about stuff when we sent all our jobs to China and India??? Seems to me the only thing they were thinking about was SMOKING CRACK.

-=DG=-

I appreciate what you're saying, but I'm guessing this would be a good time for you and your S.O. to figure out if stocks are such a good investment for her. The market goes up and down -- she may be more comfortable with something else.

As for getting a mortgage loan in this market, I'd bet that you can still get a loan if your credit history is good (reasonable). But in a year or so when all the litigation starts against those "evil" banks who sold houses to folks who couldn't read all the HUD-1s and other forms, everyone will have trouble getting a mortgage. It will be ugly.

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

the sheeple

Little tip: anyone who has to use the word "sheeple" is at best an idiot and more likely than not a crackpot with an agenda that involves tricking you into buying his doom and gloom fueled pyramid scheme. If your "sources" supplied you with that nugget, it's time to get new sources.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

I'm surprise how well the market held up that last two weeks. But then again we have two weeks of back to back interest rate cuts.

That's where I'm at with this too. That's why I would just love to see what it'll be like in a month or six.

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

Little tip: anyone who has to use the word "sheeple" is at best an idiot and more likely than not a crackpot with an agenda that involves tricking you into buying his doom and gloom fueled pyramid scheme. If your "sources" supplied you with that nugget, it's time to get new sources.

Wow, you REALLY hate the word "sheeple" huh? Hehe, all it pertains to is folks that act or opinionate without knowledge, awareness, or forethought. I suppose there are varying degrees of it and I'm sure we've all participated in it - unless you're a cross between Fredrick Neiche and Einstein or something. Certainly no one can deny that people in groups whether participants in the stock market or crowds in a street are reactionary in nature more so than not and can often act without awareness or forethought. Hell the stock market not only depends on this very thing but they use any number of formulas to predict it - and with quite a good degree of accuracy!

So, sorry if the word offends you but the fact is there are "sheeple".


--
(The color of the smileys were changed to protect the easily fooled. No smileys were injured in the writing of this message.)

[Uncle Skeleton]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

Wow, you REALLY hate the "word" sheeple huh?

Not at all, it's a perfectly cromulent word. My lawyer Gorlak uses it all the time!

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Uncle Skeleton 

Little tip: anyone who has to use the word "sheeple" is at best an idiot

This is, of course, the exact opposite of the reality of the situation. Anyone who doesn't use the word "sheeple" is probably an idiot.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by torsoboy 

So basically no reputable sources to quote? That's what I got out of that.

YouTube - One Possible Economic Future (1/2) Part One
YouTube - One Possible Economic Future (2/2) Part Two

Others:
YouTube - Financial Showdown
YouTube - The inevitable collapse of the dollar
YouTube - The Financial System Has Collapsed! ***
YouTube - Andre Kostolany talks about stock market crash
YouTube - A Frightening Worldwide Currency Crisis - Rollover
YouTube - Words from California Congressman Pete Stark
YouTube - Stock Market Predictions for 2008
YouTube - Ron Paul Supporters: Use His Views for Successful Investing ***
YouTube - US Heading into Recession, Possibly Depression
YouTube - US Stock Markets Decline : THE DOLLAR HOLOCAUST ***
YouTube - Ron Paul Blasts Chairman of Federal Reserve on National T.V
YouTube - CNBC-Wall Street Traders Cheer for Ron Paul & Liars BASH him

I'll add to these as I find more (maybe).

[Tesselator]

torsoboy is speechless? Is that even possible?

[Person Man]

Originally Posted by Tesselator 

torsoboy is speechless? Is that even possible?

More likely torsoboy hasn't seen your post or hasn't had time to watch your You Tube links. I haven't had time to review them yet, either.

[Don Pickett]

U.S. service industries unexpectedly shrank in January at the fastest pace since the last recession as the housing slump deepened and consumer spending cooled.

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, which reflects almost 90 percent of the economy, fell to 41.9, the lowest since October 2001, from 54.4 the prior month, the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM said. A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction.

``This is a stunning fall,'' said Michael Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities America Inc. in New York. ``If accurate, it's dire news on the economy.''

The worst housing slump in a quarter-century is spreading throughout the economy, hurting businesses such as builders, retailers, wholesalers and mortgage lenders. The report adds to concern Americans are spending less as job losses mount, raising the risk the economy may tip into a recession, economists said.

Ouch.

The question isn't 'will there be a recession". The question is, 'how long will it last and how severe will it be?'

[Big Mac]

I personally think we'll likely avoid a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I think service sector numbers are a lagging indicator. However, we won't feel like we're out of it until the bulls recover on Wall Street, and I don't think that will happen at least until November. The markets don't do well with political uncertainty.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I personally think we'll likely avoid a technical recession - two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. I think service sector numbers are a lagging indicator. However, we won't feel like we're out of it until the bulls recover on Wall Street, and I don't think that will happen at least until November. The markets don't do well with political uncertainty.

The housing slump hasn't even hit its stride yet: the largest number of resets isn't until March, foreclosures usually lag behind resets by about 9 to 12 months and the commercial market usually lags 6 months behind the residential. Add to this that ~30% of the economy was, in some way, related to housing and we have a problem which is much larger than what the markets are doing. In fact, the current problem has almost nothing to do with the markets, as the problems are deep-seated and structural. The monoline insurers are starting to go under, which is the last thing propping up any of these now worthless securities.

We're looking at the beginning of a housing slump which will probably last three to four years, and no amount of activity on the markets will make a difference.

[turtle777]

^^^ I agree.

And to those people who think we hit the bottom already, good luck to you.

-t

[Big Mac]

You don't think the huge interest rate cuts will have any effect on housing?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

You don't think the huge interest rate cuts will have any effect on housing?

Exactly. The interest rate cuts will most definitely make a significant impact. Will it reverse the tide? No. However, it will make it a lot less severe than it could have been.

[Big Mac]

I agree with you, Eug.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Don Pickett 

In fact, the current problem has almost nothing to do with the markets, as the problems are deep-seated and structural.

Yep! The markets (to me) are a sign or symptom tho. If the sickness
dictates the symptoms then I guess we'll either see the markets dive
straight to the bottom with many recovery attempts along the way or
complete denial up until the very end and then a massive collapse. I
see both camps now trying to make their cases. I do wonder if indeed
they could inflate the system more and if so for how long and how
much?

Of course like I say I am absolutely no expert - I just listen, watch,
listen some more and watch some more, and so on. I think it's very
interesting to watch and discuss.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

You don't think the huge interest rate cuts will have any effect on housing?

No. In fact, the huge interest rate cuts were part of the problem driving the bubble, because Alan "Print More Money!" Greenspan helped create an environment in which billions and billions of dollars in loans were made which shouldn't have been made. So, not only is lowering the interest rate kind of like going back to the boyfriend who beats you, but the problem now isn't that people can't get quickie mortgages. The problem is that those financial institutions which were able to leverage at 100 to 1 now have to take all of those loans back on their books. And the monoline insurers which insured all those crap loans are now facing the fact they don't have an extra $250+ billion sitting around to make good on all those policies.

Check this out: Buying and selling of collateralized debt obligations based on mortgage bonds, high-yield loans or preferred shares has ground to a near-halt, traders said at the securitization industry's largest conference.

``We're definitely in a period of very low liquidity at the moment, which has actually been dropping precipitously in the last few weeks,'' Ross Heller, an executive director at JPMorgan Securities Inc., said yesterday during a panel discussion at the American Securitization Forum's annual conference in Las Vegas. ``It's a challenging time.''

The slowdown of the more than $2 trillion CDO market follows record downgrades in mortgage-linked securities last year. Some AAA rated debt lost all its value. CDOs, which have fueled unprecedented bank writedowns since mid-2007, repackage assets into new securities with varying risks.

There's a global credit crunch out there as banks worldwide realize not only do they have to write down billions of dollars a quarter, but because of the failure of the insurers on the now worthless investment vehicles they hold, they very probably won't be seeing any of that money again, even at $.20 on the dollar. And, unlike the savings and loan crisis of the 80s, there's no Federal bailout coming. Hundreds of billions of dollars just disappeared from the global economy, and banks won't even make 90 day loans to other banks because no one is sure they'll be around to pay them back.

edit: You have to stop thinking the "Markets" are some kind of economic oracle. Some always makes money in the market, even when things are at their worst. In fact, if you trade options or futures you can make a killing when things go seriously south by getting out or shorting at the right time. People made money on markets all the way through the Depression, but it didn't do dick for the economy in general, because the markets don't have much to do with the economy in general. Essentially they are legalized and controlled betting, but they won't do a thing about inflation or a collapsing housing market.

[hyteckit]

I've read that the GDP growth is mostly fueled by the housing boom the last few years. Now because of the housing meltdown, we will start to see a lost in GDP.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Exactly. The interest rate cuts will most definitely make a significant impact. Will it reverse the tide? No. However, it will make it a lot less severe than it could have been.

I think it will make it a MUCH steeper decline. The more they rate cut the more dollar
inflation there will be and the steeper the fall will be. Not only steeper but from a higher
place - so the impact will be more painful!

Don said it much better (above)

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

I've read that the GDP growth is mostly fueled by the housing boom the last few years. Now because of the housing meltdown, we will start to see a lost in GDP.

Conservative estimates place activity related to housing to have generated between 3%0 and 35% of economic activity in the last five years. This includes contractors, real estate brokers, mortgage brokers, construction, etc.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Don Pickett 

No. In fact, the huge interest rate cuts were part of the problem driving the bubble, because Alan "Print More Money!" Greenspan helped create an environment in which billions and billions of dollars in loans were made which shouldn't have been made.

Except the bubble existed not because of the low interest rates. The bubble came to be because the lending practices in the USA were incredibly stupid. Other countries which had similarly low interest rates have had price increases, yes, but they haven't had the crash because the lending practices were sound.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Except the bubble existed not because of the low interest rates. The bubble came to be because the lending practices in the USA were incredibly stupid. Other countries which had similarly low interest rates have had price increases, yes, but they haven't had the crash because the lending practices were sound.

The bubble would've been impossible without the historically low interest rates in the U.S. at that time. Now, they were not the sole cause, but without those rates we wouldn't have seen the speculation we did. And Greenspan spends a good bit of time in his recent book trying to claim the low rates weren't his idea.

[hyteckit]

The bubble was fueled by low interest rate, lax loaning requirements, and the idea that the housing market was a good investment where prices never go down.

[finboy]

Originally Posted by Person Man 

Sure. I read Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, Business magazine, and Time. NONE of those contain people forecasting the complete crash you say is going to happen. So, I'd like to see YOUR sources? Why so defensive? After all, they are reputable sources, right?

THOSE aren't reputable sources. CNN is a reputable source, and THEY keep telling me that the sky is falling.

Now, just because a falling sky helps elect the "out" party doesn't mean that people with an agenda might LIE in order to convince people that the sky is falling does it? Some people are just sheep.

Say baaaa.

[Eug]

Yep. And as of now, the lax loan requirements have been killed.

Now it's true because of this, demand will decrease, and prices will (continue to) drop. However, with the interest rate cuts, the number of foreclosures will be less than they could have been.

[Big Mac]

If insanely low rates wasn't Greenspan's idea, whose was it? It was definitely his responsibility. Is he claiming the Fed bowed to political pressure?