[Powerbook]

Okay Americans!
Old Europe is a little weak in the stock exchanges now. We are counting on you that you engage in a green rally on AAPL!!! :-)

Tesselator:
Thanks for the hint. I was missing some more fundamentals with the short Reuters snippet, too.

[♥]

This thread is still going?

Guess the market keeps rolling around on the floor, so it figures.

[Powerbook]

The market is going nowhere. No crash, but uh, no certainty either.
AAPL stock is doing some ++-+---+-+-. What can you do. Went out of my CALL-option at the moment, with some +50 %.

[Tesselator]

I like having these live graphs on the current page of the discussion. These update
with every refresh so it's useful to have them in view while or as, the discussion
continues. They do indeed indicate a severe drop followed by a continued gradual
crash with the only significant increases being within a day or two of a major rate
cut.

And really a rate-cut is only the devaluation of the currency unit. So in reality it
didn't really go up. We just said the unit is worth less and as a result you need
more of them to equal the same value. Since the charts do not take that into
account a now lower value will chart higher. This is the affect that rate cuts
have on charts. They give the false impression of some recovery when in fact
there has not been any.

I don't know if that accounts totally for the bumps upward we've seen since
this thread started but I would say the influence is substantial! Enough that
we should make ourselves aware of it. For me personally I want to flatten
out every upswing that coincides with a rate cut - and that's all of them BTW,
so I see AAPL trading at an adjusted (for my thinking) unit of about $70 per
share.



AAPL is a bit lower than several of the indexed averages as you can see but only
since the idea of a possible "crash" became widely circulated.



AAPL in Blue

[rogermugs]

i bought apple shares the day it hit 200 and its been nothing but downhill...

my friend reminds me... "playing the market is fun... and then you lose money... and then its not so much fun anymore"

my faith in apple may have turned into blind love, and i fear that...

that said... their stock is in the dumps because the economy is... what can you do?
iphone 2 to stimulate the economy anyone? I'm ready... thursday!?!? yea... i know... i wish.

[Tesselator]

Well, I think "stimulating" the economy is going to be impossible
beyond some trickery or "cooked" up illusionary dynamics to put
it in the kindest terms. We just had the housing bubble pop and
that is teeny-tiny compared to the coming credit bubble looming
on the horizon. The personal credit bubble is in the trillions now
and just last week it hit a level that surpassed the previous record.
It was that previous record in 1929 (I heard the year but I forget
what it was) that was a major if not the single most significant
variable that caused what we call "the great depression". And what
is the fed and the bankers doing about it? Well, making it worse
of course by rate-cutting which stimulates borrowing and credit
card companies now making it easier than ever before to qualify
and begin running up yet more contributions to the bubble. When
this bubble pops the few tent-cities that are popping up around
the nation now are going to look microscopic in comparison!!!

These kinds of stats and the absolutely irresponsible actions of
the Bernanke run Fed are why I make comments as seen on the
previous page like "I can't believe you guys think it's going to go
back up" and etc.. Well, that and VERY many top analysts with
long track records of conservative forecasts are recommending
to their rich customers that they should get out of the market,
get a farm, store food, and other somewhat shocking suggestions
for market analysts to be making. It's not the majority of analysts
who are saying this just a few very key people and only to a
very specific set of portfolio types - this makes it 5 times more
probable IMO... Or at least a very very serious consideration
and something that screams out to be heard over the usual hog
wash.

I guess type in "credit bubble" and see what you get.

[Powerbook]

Originally Posted by rogermugs 

i bought apple shares the day it hit 200 and its been nothing but downhill...

Stoploss. Stoploss at -10%, dood.
[I'm in again via Call options]

PB.

[Tesselator]

The Federal Reserve's rescue has failed - Telegraph

Can you say "ouch!"?

Here's some excerpt ink:

Originally Posted by Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, UK Telegraph, March 3, 2008

The verdict is in. The Fed’s emergency rate cuts in January have failed to
halt the downward spiral towards a full-blown debt deflation. Much more
drastic action will be needed.

Yields on two-year US Treasuries plummeted to 1.63pc on Friday in a flight
to safety, foretelling financial winter.

The debt markets are freezing ever deeper, a full eight months into the crunch.
Contagion is spreading into the safest pockets of the US credit universe.

It is hard to imagine a more plain-vanilla outfit than the Port Authority of New
York and New Jersey, which manages bridges, bus terminals, and airports.

The authority is a public body, backed by the two states. Yet it had to pay 20pc
rates in February after the near closure of the $330bn (£166m) “term-auction”
market. It had originally expected to pay 4.3pc, but that was aeons ago in
financial time.

“I never thought I would see anything like this in my life,” said James Steele,
an HSBC economist in New York.

No sane mortal needs to know what term-auction means, except that it too
became a tool of the US credit alchemists. Banks briefly used the market as
laboratory for conjuring long-term loans at Alan Greenspan’s giveaway short
term rates. It has come unstuck. Next in line is the $45trillion derivatives
market for credit default swaps (CDS).

Last week, the spreads on high-yield US bonds vaulted to 718 basis points.
The iTraxx Crossover index measuring corporate default risk in Europe smashed
the 600 barrier. We are now far beyond the August spike.

/sigh

[Tesselator]

Hmmm:

CNN, Depression Equal to Great Depression is Coming � butner blogspot

Now it's on CNN too so I guess the numbers are even solid enough for them.
As for AAPL stock players wanting to get "liquid" does that mean we should sell
our 500 shares and buy 50 laptops?

I can see the local grocery stores in a few years:

Register:

Milk, beep. Milk, beep. Bread, beep. Eggs, beep. Playboy Magazine, beep.
Beep beep. That will be $149.97 please or proceed to the exchange counter
and submit one Apple External SuperDrive.
Thank you for shopping Wallsmart, have a nice day.

----------------------------------
FDIC Girds For Bank Failures & The FDIC Will Seek to Rehire 25 of It's Own
Retired Members, Many of Whom Specialized in Bank Closings.
TheStreet.com : Print Story - FDIC Girds For Bank Failures
FDIC girds for bank failures - InvestmentNews

Wall Street Bank Run
David Ignatius - Wall Street Bank Run - washingtonpost.com

US Properties Plunge Into Negative Equity Than At Any Time Since
The Great Depression Of The 30's
Source: US properties plunge into negative equity | Business | The Observer

U.S. Credit Markets Collapsing!
Pawtucket Times - News from the Associated Press
U.S. Credit Markets Collapsing!

[Dakar the Fourth]

Give me a break. If this country could survive the tech bubble burst and 9/11 this housing market thing isn't about to murder us all.

[tie]

The housing market bubble is much bigger than the tech bubble. And the credit bubble is bigger than that. The crash will be bigger, too.

I don't agree with Tesselator's doomsday predictions at all. But with inflation at 7% (annualized over the last quarter), now would be a good time to diversify if you haven't already.

[Dakar the Fourth]

I will say, doesn't the subprime mortgage crisis remind you of buying stock on margin?

[olePigeon]

Maybe this crash will force my rent to be lowered. $1640/month for a 2 bedroom is tough.

[Dakar the Fourth]

I'm going to go ahead and assume you live in a city?

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by tie 

The housing market bubble is much bigger than the tech bubble. And the credit bubble is bigger than that. The crash will be bigger, too.

I don't agree with Tesselator's doomsday predictions at all. But with inflation at 7% (annualized over the last quarter), now would be a good time to diversify if you haven't already.

Huh? I predicted something? Yeah, I guess I said I thought that the
AAPL stock wouldn't zoom back up to $200 a share any time soon
and will probably get lower before it gets higher. I'll take a moment
now to add to that that it will probably stay at "lower" for a good
while too - once it gets there.

How is that a doomsday prediction though? All I'm doing is linking
to articles on "reputable" financial sites. I'm just an observer in the
back row watching. I repeat what I hear on stage but I don't know
crap about any of this stuff - for sure not enough to make any
sensible predictions beyond what I just said above.

Sooo... anything you thought was a prediction from me is really from
CNN, Washington Post, and like that...

[Tesselator]

Oh this is a gas! I love this interview! Click on the Play This Video...

Outstanding!

Jim Rogers: Economy * US * News * Story - MSNBC.com

I loved his answer to the question: "If you were chairman of the Fed
what would be the first two things you would do?" Don't be drinking
when you watch this video I sprayed coffee all over my desk - twice!

[Don Pickett]

Bear Stearns gone, Lehman probably next. Will Citi make it? Nikkei down 500 at mid-day. The Dow could be down 1,000 tomorrow (later today).

Put on your seat belts, boys and girls. This will be a bumpy ride.

edit: For those playing along at home, Bear closed at $57/share Thursday. JPMorgan bought them for $2/share. Think about that.

[hyteckit]

Pull out! Pull out!

The stock market is an empty shell.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Don Pickett 

Bear Stearns gone, Lehman probably next. Will Citi make it? Nikkei down 500 at mid-day. The Dow could be down 1,000 tomorrow (later today).

Put on your seat belts, boys and girls. This will be a bumpy ride.

edit: For those playing along at home, Bear closed at $57/share Thursday. JPMorgan bought them for $2/share. Think about that.

Dow down 1000 pts? I suppose you could be right, but I suspect it won't be anywhere near that bad.

My guess is somewhere around half that.

As for Lehman Brothers: Free Preview - WSJ.com

Moody's Investors Service affirmed its rating on Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. but lowered its ratings outlook to stable, citing the investment bank's real estate holdings and broader worries -- including the collapse of Bear Stearns Cos. -- as causes for concern going forward.

Moody's said Lehman's A1 rating recognizes the firm -- which is set to report fiscal first-quarter results Tuesday -- has "navigated quite well" the current credit crisis. But the agency said the continuing volatility of financial markets have decreased the chances that the ceiling on its long-term debt can be raised, thus the revised "stable" rating. The ratings outlook had been at positive, meaning a ratings upgrade was possible.

[turtle777]

This week is gonna be BAAAAD. Worst sell-off in months. We're going to new lows.
All aboard.

-t

[Zeeb]

The Dow will be down less than 100 points. The other investment banks are stable and have enough cash to operate. If all else fails, there is a lot of gold buried at Fort Knox.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

The Dow will be down less than 100 points. The other investment banks are stable and have enough cash to operate. If all else fails, there is a lot of gold buried at Fort Knox.

Haha, LOL, you wish.

Just look at Europe this morning, things are looking very dim.
The credit crunch is hitting industrials.

-t

[spacefreak]

Originally Posted by ♥ 

Hearing talk, though, that Ben Bernanke may be given the boot.

Not sure if that's good or bad. He's no Alan Greenspan.

But this is very much a result of Greenspan's 17 consecutive rate hikes. He quadrupled the lending rate in a ridiculously short 20-month span, triggering a chain of events that made ARMs way too expensive for many of the note holders. Trickle down (or up), and here we are.

[turtle777]

OMG

So JP Morgan wants to buy Bear Sterns for $ 2 per share.
Last Fr. Bear was still at $ 30. And Bear Sterns was worth $ 170 last year.

Anyone who owned Bear Sterns has basically lost everything.

-t

[imitchellg5]

Today is going to be a bad day for the stock market.

[Doofy]

No need to panic.

Just make sure you know how to build bivvies and hunt rabbit small edible creatures which are not cute bunnies.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by imitchellg5 

Today is going to be a bad day for the stock market.

Just *today*

Think weeks and months. This whole mess ain't over before 2010, maybe later than that.

-t

[turtle777]

Man, I *hate* learning new hunting skills. I just got specialized on boobies.

-t

[Eug]

The Dow is DowN!!!

...all of 90 points as of 10:00 am.

[Zeeb]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Haha, LOL, you wish.

Just look at Europe this morning, things are looking very dim.
The credit crunch is hitting industrials.

-t

Hey maybe not! The Dow is only down 3 points at the time I'm writing this. Admittedly, there is a long day ahead but we'll see.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

Hey maybe not! The Dow is only down 3 points at the time I'm writing this. Admittedly, there is a long day ahead but we'll see.

Well, you should read some news as well. The DOW only shows the picture at the present moment, but if you read what's going on, you'll know it'll get worse before it gets better.

-t

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Well, you should read some news as well. The DOW only shows the picture at the present moment, but if you read what's going on, you'll know it'll get worse before it gets better.

-t

Most of what I've read suggests that while the market won't likely be very good in the coming months, the sky-is-falling claims by others are likely too pessimistic.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Most of what I've read suggests that while the market won't likely be very good in the coming months, the sky-is-falling claims by others are likely too pessimistic.

That's what they have been saying since last summer.

Now we have a big US investment bank go bancrupt, and they still maintain it's not gonna get worse ?

What idiots really believe their dope ?

-t

[Cipher13]

s/recession/bagel

[Eug]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

That's what they have been saying since last summer.

They have?

In my readings, the doom-and-gloom proclamations were rampant early on, but recently they've been getting a bit less gloomy.

Anyways, not surprisingly, JP Morgan Chase seems to have done well today. Up 11% so far.

Index Today

AAPL is down 0.9%. It's at ~$125.6 currently.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Anyways, not surprisingly, JP Morgan Chase seems to have done well today. Up 11% so far.

LOL, until they find out that Bear Sterns is a complete turd, and they have to write-off the whole thing.

-t

[Zeeb]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Well, you should read some news as well. The DOW only shows the picture at the present moment, but if you read what's going on, you'll know it'll get worse before it gets better.

-t

True, however this thread is titled, "Market Crash" so I was referring just to the that. I agree things are not good at all at the moment market crash or not. The normally restrained Allan Greenspan has stated the economy hasn't been this bad since WWII.

[Doofy]

To be honest, I was expecting the US economy to go tits-up in around 1999. That the current administration has managed to hold back the tide for this long points to their being slightly more competent than everyone makes out.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

The Dow will be down less than 100 points. The other investment banks are stable and have enough cash to operate. If all else fails, there is a lot of gold buried at Fort Knox.

I thought they emptied out Fort Knox from the late 60's and by 1980 all that was left was the token amount they keep up front to show tourists. There's a few depositions (two separate and unique ones I think) by personnel who have/had access to the holding areas. These appeared in a book I read in the early 90's by an x-congressman.

Originally Posted by Eug 

Most of what I've read suggests that while the market won't likely be very good in the coming months, the sky-is-falling claims by others are likely too pessimistic.

Again, most of the people I read say that we're on a two-year (max) fuse to zero. There may or may not be one or more sudden crash events during that time. The big money people that are not acting as advisors or analysts say that as the dollar reaches critically low levels the Amero will be offered (or forced) as a savior. They say that this is all by design so any of the common sense remedies that you or I can see as obvious solutions will not be implemented - instead, we'll see opposite counterintuitive measures being implemented. And for those who protest or move to actually try and save the US there will be FEMA camps awaiting them. The inside word is that there may not be any elections and Bush will become "dictator" as martial law is implemented.

I hope I am able to come here in two years time and say: Damn! I was totally wrong and all the info I was hearing was from people either with failed plans of who were obviously dead wrong. But something tells me it's otherwise.

[Eug]

^^^ I keep wondering if that's a joke account.

Anyways, there are about 5000 tons of gold in Fort Knox, and about the same in the Federal Reserve Bank in New York.

P.S. In the 21st century, I am surprised that people are still so fascinated with gold. Gold is a commodity, but not a particularly rare one, so it really shouldn't be worth anywhere near what it goes for.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Zeeb 

The Dow will be down less than 100 points. The other investment banks are stable and have enough cash to operate. If all else fails, there is a lot of gold buried at Fort Knox.

Lehman Brothers is next to go. And there's not as much gold a Fort Knox as you might think.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Don Pickett 

And there's not as much gold a Fort Knox as you might think.

There are 5000 tons of gold in Fort Knox. That's a fair amount of gold.

But who cares anyway? It's not as if the US dollar is backed by gold.

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

P.S. In the 21st century, I am surprised that people are still so fascinated with gold. Gold is a commodity, but not a particularly rare one, so it really shouldn't be worth anywhere near what it goes for.

Are you kidding me? All the gold ever mined would form a cube no more than 20m x 20m x 20m.

Why are folks still fascinated with it? Because it's the best hedge against inflation. Would you rather be sitting on a pile of gold or a pile of Zimbabwean dollars right now?

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

Are you kidding me? All the gold ever mined would form a cube no more than 20m x 20m x 20m.

You don't use gold to build skycrapers. It is inappropriate for that. However, gold for industrial use is more than sufficiently available. The problem is people like gold for jewelry. I just don't understand the fascination.

Well, maybe I partially understand it. It doesn't discolour easily, and it's hypoallergenic.

Why are folks still fascinated with it? Because it's the best hedge against inflation. Would you rather be sitting on a pile of gold or a pile of Zimbabwean dollars right now?

If I had $10000 Canadian dollars to invest, I would buy neither gold (at $1000 an ounce) or Zimbabwean dollars right now.

Get ready for the gold crash of 2010...

[Doofy]

Originally Posted by Eug 

It's not as if the US dollar is backed by gold.

And that's exactly gold is worth more than dollars.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

And that's exactly gold is worth more than dollars.

Well, they only thing I have in US dollars is AAPL.

[Tesselator]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

To be honest, I was expecting the US economy to go tits-up in around 1999. That the current administration has managed to hold back the tide for this long points to their being slightly more competent than everyone makes out.

"The administration"??? Of the United States federal government? They have no say in financial matters. In fact they are the puppets of the oligarchy who run the banking cartel. Or did yo mean something else?

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by Eug 

Get ready for the gold crash of 2010...

Nah, it'll stay solid, may even edge upwards a bit over the next 5-10 years. I don't expect 10% /yr from it, but maybe 4-5.

Now, platinum is another story. Smart money is there. I've heard many very savvy people claim it'll hit $4K /oz by 2011.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Shaddim 

Nah, it'll stay solid, may even edge upwards a bit over the next 5-10 years. I don't expect 10% /yr from it, but maybe 4-5.

That's plausible, but an optimistic viewpoint IMO. I personally think we'll see noticeable declines in gold prices after a few years.

[Don Pickett]

Originally Posted by Doofy 

And that's exactly gold is worth more than dollars.

And the value of all the gold in the world is about $3 trillion. It's not really economically useful any more.