[Millennium]

There's a recent phenomenon in Bush/Kerry political polls which I find fascinating. Namely, they ask not only who people want to win, but who people think will win. I thought it might be interesting to try that here. Of course, since our poll system only allows for one question,

The question assumes -probably rightly- that at this point, only Bush and Kerry have a realistic chance of winning the election. I've included an "other" option, though, if you honestly think someone other than these two is going to win the election.

[BRussell]

Yeah I've noticed that it might be 45-45 say they're going to vote for Bush and Kerry, but 60% will think Bush is going to win.

[swrate]

Venting in the poll....

I would like a gift for that special day.

Here, non US citizen polls show Kerry 66-70%, Bush, 8-10%, others undecided.

But most importantly:
US
The majority of expatriates from Europe will vote for Kerry, especially the younger generation. The republican responsible for this area was �whining� about it.
A lot of new registrations are filled, will those foreign votes be counted? What is their weight?

I know who my family will be voting for....(I sound like GW with that sentence) my family will be voting for Kerry.
- Has, as a matter of fact.

The coverage is unusual: important pages from the international press, www, and TV, i.e. French, German, Swiss, English, Arabic, Italian TV channels have a lot of talk shows and debates around this 2004 election, much more then during the past US elections. I suppose other countries also cover it well , the same lines again and again, terror, security, against hope.

Don�t hard cores lurking or vehemently reacting (less lately) here wonder if "hating" bush is not a GOOD enough reason not to vote for him, especially when one deepens the subject : Why do people have those feelings for GW in the first place?
I have enumerated my reasons for �not being for him� against the pwlounge before, I don�t hate him, I simply hate the idea of him being US�s President, I think US is slowly going down the drain, when I see minimum wage, health, education, social system, tolerance, care of the environment, plus lots of other stuff,,,,,,,
turn to red.
The �God war� covers the �good American dream�. sorry for punctuation freaks.

I feel great comfort in the idea that, end of 2002, the polls were high, January, good, going up again right after the war, and as time passed and new casualties were encountered, numbers steadily fell. Some US political forums were closed or hacked, destroyed little by little, by Kobe or a bush04 web incarnations.
GW refused to face the opinion of most other leaders,
yet Putine, who was not in favor of a preemptive strike, officially claimed he was for Bush. I wonder what interests made him turn his jacket. Maybe he sees the situation as a "Commander in Chief" "should".
People see blood spilt every day when they switch on their TV, and Bush/Kerry for/against debates.(generalizing)
This side of the planet is sadly getting used to terrorism, people continue to travel around.

Yet I fear there might be a fraud in the countings, and then another term, who could bring a cultural revolution. (which is then positive) I am extrapolling and generalizing.
I cant wait for the scale to balance the other side, and for it to be decided.
I also hope we will know the result shortly afterwards, not days of incertitude later, as in the last election.
I feel comfort in seeing how close the numbers are, on the balance, a Democrat President with a Republican majority in the Congress brings fresh air.
If there is a fraud, the fracture could bring a revolution in US, if the revolution is only cultural, changes are then all positive.

After all this midnight rambling, here is my feeling:
I think Kerry will have more votes, but GW may win by �other ways�

(you asked for it)

edited: I found their weight for 1990, roughly 1 million, less then 0,5%, yet now more people are abroad (i.e.Iraq)
and half a percent makes a difference.
err, found on that site joking with me, much more, 10 million ballots :
http://www.fairvote.org/righttovote/prnewswire.html

[BRussell]

I'm not sure if your poll is showing the effect, but I've got a couple theories about why people think Bush will win.

1. The power of the incumbency. People might believe that an incumbent will usually win, and that's probably not a bad bet.

2. The media. If the media is biased towards Bush, I think people may watch TV and think Bush is winning.

3. Republicans are tougher campaigners. These are the Swift Boat and Willie Horton people. They get the job done. Dems aren't as likely to take an "ends-justify-the-means" approach.

4. Repubs believe they have the majority. I don't know if others feel this way, but I get the feeling that Repubs are more likely to believe the country is on their side, whether that's true or not. We Dems just assume that the country doesn't agree with us. It's always kind of a shocker when we win.