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CreepingDeth · Nov 1, 2004, 05:39 PM

Well. It's been a long year. Almost too long. The campaign started at least a year ago, and it is finally coming to a close. No matter who wins, I'll be glad this is over. Period. This whole thing was tiring and annoying. Of course, no we'll probably be working on 4 year campaigns from now on,

What are your thoughts predictions (without getting into a partisan debate).
Who do you honestly think is going to win?

icruise · Nov 1, 2004, 05:45 PM

CreepingDeth -- Either you didn't vote in your own poll or you voted for Kerry...

CreepingDeth · Nov 1, 2004, 05:47 PM

Originally posted by Icruise:
CreepingDeth -- Either you didn't vote in your own poll or you voted for Kerry...

Woops.

BTW, you can abbreviate my name.

itai195 · Nov 1, 2004, 05:50 PM

Are you referring to the electoral college or the popular vote? The margins of victory in each don't necessarily correlate. Maybe now that we're close to the election I've started to delude myself, but I've changed my mind and think Kerry will win a squeaker in the electoral college. I really can't predict the popular vote... Even Bush can conceivably win the popular vote and lose the electoral college this year. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I'm hoping for such an outcome, anything it will take to get Americans to seriously reconsider this archaic electoral process.

CreepingDeth · Nov 1, 2004, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by itai195:
Are you referring to the electoral college or the popular vote? The margins of victory in each don't necessarily correlate. Maybe now that we're close to the election I've started to delude myself, but I've changed my mind and think Kerry will win a squeaker in the electoral college. I really can't predict the popular vote... Even Bush can conceivably win the popular vote and lose the electoral college this year. In fact, I'd go so far as to say that I'm hoping for such an outcome, anything it will take to get Americans to seriously reconsider this archaic electoral process.

I was referring to electoral college. Something less than 20.
I'd say:
Razor thin: <20
Comfortable: 21-50
Landslide: 51<

If it were a popular vote system, you would only have to campaign in NY, Boston, Philadelphia, Atlanta, SF, LA, and Seattle. That completely ignore the midwest. It also lets people steal elections easier. The popular vote system and democracy in general is mob rule. Democracy does not guarantee freedom. A constitutional republic does. So no, a popular vote system would not be any better.

BRussell · Nov 1, 2004, 06:00 PM

I put comfortable Kerry. I think the popular vote will be really really close, probably 50-48, but the stupid fucking (pardon me) electoral college may be pretty unbalanced if one guy wins several of the biggies, and I think that's likely to happen.

I think Kerry is slightly more likely to win than Bush, but I think if Bush wins, it could be by quite a large margin in the electoral college, with as many as 350+ electoral votes. If Kerry wins, it could be with something like 300 electoral votes if he wins both Florida and Ohio - closer, but still "comfortable."

CreepingDeth · Nov 1, 2004, 06:05 PM

No candidate will get about 230. I highly doubt it.

And you guys really need to get over. It's like PMS. You lost by a thin margin. Deal with it. You lost. Don't try to blame it on the electoral college. I don't recall Nixon being a little girl when he lost in 60'. For the love of God just get over it. If Bush loses by, let's say, 5 EVs, I won't cry home to mommy blaming the system.

GSixZero · Nov 1, 2004, 06:52 PM

I say Kerry with around 300 votes. With record numbers of first time voters, and record voter turn out, it's hard to image there would be so much hubbub over reelecting the status quo.

itai195 · Nov 1, 2004, 06:57 PM

Originally posted by CreepingDeth:
And you guys really need to get over. It's like PMS. You lost by a thin margin. Deal with it. You lost. Don't try to blame it on the electoral college. I don't recall Nixon being a little girl when he lost in 60'. For the love of God just get over it. If Bush loses by, let's say, 5 EVs, I won't cry home to mommy blaming the system.

Nixon lost both the popular vote and the electoral college in 1960, so you seem to be mixing issues.

Saad · Nov 1, 2004, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by itai195:
Nixon lost both the popular vote and the electoral college in 1960, so you seem to be mixing issues.

To be fair, there was massive voter fraud in Chicago, and Kennedy won Texas by about 5,000, well under the threshold for a recount. Nixon could have won had he pursued the matter.

Shaddim · Nov 1, 2004, 11:26 PM

Bush will win, 274-265, and it'll be contested and litigated for months.

tie · Nov 1, 2004, 11:36 PM

Originally posted by CreepingDeth:
If Bush loses by, let's say, 5 EVs, I won't cry home to mommy blaming the system.

But you can be sure the Republican party will. Maybe if both parties have been hit, there will be a serious effort towards election reform.

zigzag · Nov 1, 2004, 11:39 PM

Kerry with a comfortable lead on Teresa, who will be chasing him with a beer bottle.

Shaddim · Nov 2, 2004, 12:20 AM

Originally posted by tie:
But you can be sure the Republican party will. Maybe if both parties have been hit, there will be a serious effort towards election reform.

There's nothing wrong with the process, it's the division that exists in the USA itself. It's so close because that gulf exists, and mark my words, it will get worse.

itai195 · Nov 2, 2004, 12:48 AM

Originally posted by Saad:
To be fair, there was massive voter fraud in Chicago, and Kennedy won Texas by about 5,000, well under the threshold for a recount. Nixon could have won had he pursued the matter.

Sure, but I wasn't originally talking about the election being close. That's not the principle I'm concerned with here.

TheBadgerHunter · Nov 2, 2004, 12:53 AM

Maybe I'm being silly... but won't all the votes be in until around december? So while in reality one of them might "win" it won't be official?