[Waragainstsleep]

Getting in a bit early perhaps but I'm already looking forward to it.
Curious to know if there is greater stateside interest in light of the World Cup run?

A few thoughts on activities so far:

Southampton have collapsed out of nowhere. Its almost inexplicable whats happened to them. Even with all that cash to spend it will be a miracle if they make progress this season.

Arsenal look strong. I think they look the strongest they have in some time now. I expect them to maintain their challenge until the end this time but I do wonder if they still need a little extra in defence. Not sure they've addressed those collapses against the bigger teams last season.

Chelsea look like typical Mourinho again. Too many midfielders, essentially a traditional Italian style, defensive team but with a traditional English style lone striker. Big target man. Choice of two. They'll challenge for honours but it will be dull.

Man Utd will be a different prospect under Van Gaal but they still need players if they want to win. That argument last year about them being a championship winning team never washed because they didn't deserve to win it the year before.
Van Gaal said something I said a little while ago which was that they have "too many number 10s". Which makes it odd that the most important signing he has made was another one. So now they have Kagawa, Rooney, Mata and Herrera.
I think if they don't change more personnel, they'll either overachieve due to the strict new regime, or collapse again. I suspect most of them will like it though. It doesn't look to me like the players they really need are available or would join. They need to strengthen in defence and they need some creativity in midfield from further back or out wide maybe.
Jones was a great defender at Blackburn, I worry that Ferguson ruined him a bit by playing him in midfield.

Man City have the problem that they need to start fitting in with FIFA fair play rules but also all the megastars that were likely to move this summer probably have already. They still have a very good team though. I wonder if they will be hungry enough to win it again.

Tottenham are an enigma. They haven't changed much yet. Perhaps they are hoping to 'do a Liverpool' and that the spending spree from last year will come good under a new manager. Perhaps it will. They do have some good players but Adebayor has never had two good seasons in a row (and is recovering from a nasty bout of Malaria) so if Soldado doesn't warm up they might struggle again.

Liverpool were great against City the other day. City bossed possession but it was only Joe Hart that stopped Liverpool scoring 6 or 7. They still haven't addressed the panicky defending trait that undid them last season though. I'm not sure what that will take to fix it. We have some good defenders at the club already. Haven't seen Lovren's impact yet though. I'm not sure Lambert and Lallana will make up for the goals that Suarez provided, but Sterling looks even better and Jordan Ibe looks a lot like Sterling only physically stronger. He will be a star by the end of the year.

All in all, it could be even closer than last year. I think three teams have made up ground on the champions on the team that should have beaten them still look like they can match them again.

Liverpool V AC Milan tonight though!

[Jawbone54]

I feel horrible for Southampton, despite having benefited by the signing of Calum Chambers (Arsenal fan here). They've lost nearly their entire team. I've never seen anything quite like it.

I agree with you on most fronts. Arsenal will get off to a blazing start, then fade off during the cooler months, then make another late push to finish second or third. Chelsea and Man City will remain near the top, but I see Liverpool pulling back from late season's performance. Suarez was just too important.

I do believe that Man United will be back. I don't think they have what it takes to win, but there's no way they're missing out on European football again. It'll be a top-four finish, and Van Gaal will receive all the credit.

Then again, it's still early August, and there's quite a bit of time left in the window.

[Waragainstsleep]

Apparently Southampton set themselves up a bit. I heard they weren't talking to players, telling them about offers, offering new contracts, even as simple as asking them not to leave. No idea why if that was the case but it seems like their director who left was quite the lynchpin in the whole setup.

It is difficult to see where Liverpool will replace Suarez' goals exactly, though I expect Sterling to score more than last year, Ibe will have a great season and be a regular long before the end barring incident. Lallana should score a few too and Markovic as well. I wonder if its the assists that we'll miss more than the goals. People forget he was top of the league for assists too. There were periods where Liverpool actually did better without him though oddly enough so I'm less worried by his absence than I am by the inability to defend out wide. (And in some cases at all)
If they can shore up the defence properly, then they only need to replace half of Suarez' goals, if that.
I'm not that worried for Liverpool yet. They should still beat the lesser teams, and they are still competitive with the big boys as well. Not as many thrashings this time perhaps but you don't need to win by 5 every week.

United are playing for Van Gaal at the moment and I now expect a strong start for them. They shouldn't fade without Europe to worry about but I wonder if they'll be able to put up with being ridden hard all season after slacking off so badly last year. Van Persie I expect to struggle with injuries a bit as he is getting to that age, Rooney is still overrated and they are still vulnerable to pace which Liverpool, City and Arsenal now have in spades. They still need to make more signings and they are struggling to get them by the looks of it due to lack of champions league. They clearly have the cash to spend but the market for top end players is pretty much done with for now. Most have already moved or are already at bigger clubs with ECL to play.
Its that uncertainty. If they get back into the top four, it was all just an unfortunate blip and no real problem, back to normal again, all is fine. If they were to miss out again this time it could be very damaging for them. More in terms of talent than revenue, though it was announced their newer sponsorship deals get slashed if they don't get back into Europe. I sense that players who would happily have signed in a heartbeat under Fergie waited to see how Moyes would do and now they are waiting again to see how the next one pans out. They have lost their stability. In the grand scheme of things, Van Gaal has an impressive record but will he stay at United for 20 years? Even 10? Not sure about that.

[Waragainstsleep]

Man Utd seem to have a big problem in their boardroom. There is a perception that they need to throw money at big players in order to strengthen sufficiently and this is true but the attitude seems to be that it doesn't matter who they buy as long as he's very expensive.
Its a rot that maybe started with Fellaini. They overpaid at the last minute because they hadn't brought anyone in during that window. I actually liked Fellaini as a player at Everton. He had some great games including one in particular at Old Trafford where they couldn't deal with him at all but United tried to squeeze Everton for a cut price deal and ended paying 30% more than they needed to as a result.

Then because of the lack of signings big or otherwise, they shelled out a fortune on Mata in the January window. A good player but did United need him? No. Now Van Gaal has said that United have "too many number 10s" but bought another one anyway in Herrera and now arguably four of their 6 best players all want to play in the same position.

Despite this mistake, they are now being linked to Di Maria and it seems to me this is because he is the only £50M player who will entertain going there. (If indeed he will). Do they need him? Not really, they need a central defensive midfielder and probably some more defenders if Van Gaal wants to stick to his new favourite system.

It seems United are a victim of their own inflate sense of self-importance. They don't seem to want to adjust to the fact that big players want to play in the Champions League, and until they establish some stability and consistency of doing that under a new manager since Fergie, even players who would have bitten their hand off and played for peanuts are either saying no to see how things turn out or demanding huge amounts to offset the risk. This tactic could undo years of progress and success if it persists and continues to hamper their European participation. Which as a Liverpool fan is a thought that makes me grin obviously.

[mattyb]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

It seems United are a victim of their own inflate sense of self-importance.

No, but then again Liverpool fans are rarely correct.

Stupid money spent by 2 stupid managers in what - just over a year? What has happened at Old Trafford since Fergie left scares me. Is Van Gaal getting a percentage of each transfer or something? Apparently Falcao's wages will cost around the £15million level - ****ing ridiculous. Either he wins the Premiership this season, or Man Utd start the slippery slope to third division mediocrity.

[mattyb]

Bet Wellbeck scores 20 for the Gooners.

[Waragainstsleep]

Someone told me that RVP is going to be out a long time for knee surgery but I haven't seen that anywhere else.

The Falcao deal was somewhat baffling to me. I didn't think Utd really needed him, I don't know why Monaco want rid of him, I was surprised that for £6M Arsenal, Liverpool (pre Balotelli) or even Spurs didn't try to get him, given they could offer European football. £350K per week seems to explain most of those away though. I can only guess that even Real balked at that.

Seems they are gambling somewhat. If Utd don't get top four this season, its going to be pretty catastrophic isn't it?

[mattyb]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

Seems they are gambling somewhat. If Utd don't get top four this season, its going to be pretty catastrophic isn't it?

It already is.

Champs League is the minimum considering what's been spent. I'm blocked at work, but it would be interesting to see what the Prem Clubs (Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man Utd.) have each spent over the last 10 years.

EDIT : just found this : http://www.transferleague.co.uk

Even better : http://www.transferleague.co.uk/leag...3-to-date.html

[Waragainstsleep]

Interesting site. I'm a little surprised that United and Liverpool are so close in terms of spending. I think the only player we bought this summer that we wouldn't have bought anyway if Suarez had stuck around was Balotelli. So if he'd stayed that would have put Liverpool and United virtually neck and neck in long term spending. I find that odd given that United have a substantially bigger stadium and have had far bigger sponsorship deals. Did all the extra money just get used up by the Glazers when the club bought itself for them?

[mattyb]

Originally Posted by Waragainstsleep 

Interesting site. I'm a little surprised that United and Liverpool are so close in terms of spending. I think the only player we bought this summer that we wouldn't have bought anyway if Suarez had stuck around was Balotelli. So if he'd stayed that would have put Liverpool and United virtually neck and neck in long term spending. I find that odd given that United have a substantially bigger stadium and have had far bigger sponsorship deals. Did all the extra money just get used up by the Glazers when the club bought itself for them?

Need to pay for that debt sir. No idea what the financial details are, but I imagine that quite a few millions goto paying loans per year.

I did a quick spreadsheet and (since it starts in the 03/04 season) it shows that Chelsea have done the best out of the top spenders (Champs League + Prem + FA Cup). For the number of times that Utd have been in the Champs League, they should have more trophies. I didn't count other cups like the League, or the Charity Shield BTW.

What is sad about European football, is that the biggest spending teams tend to win the trophies over the long term.

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by mattyb 

Bet Wellbeck scores 20 for the Gooners.

I hope beyond hope, but I think 10-14 is more realistic.

What was hilarious (pitiful) is that he signs for Arsenal, then rolls his ankle the next morning. I swear, there's a curse on this club.

[ShortcutToMoncton]

That's not really sad, that's generally what happens in most team sports.

[Waragainstsleep]

Arsenal really can't catch a break can they? They were looking pretty strong on paper, the Giroud breaks his leg. Wenger says no replacement then buys Welbeck who immediately injures himself. I feel for them a bit.

[Waragainstsleep]

Welbeck must be ok, he's on for England right now. Looks hungry too.

[mattyb]

Lets hope DiMaria can work some of his magic for Utd. Apparently he was amazing last night.

[Waragainstsleep]

2 assists and a goal against the world champions. Not bad.

[mattyb]

Welbeck. Bloody Val Gaal and his bullshit 'system'.

[mattyb]

I hope the Arsenal fans are singing 'Are you watching, are you watching, are you watching Louis van Gaal!!!!'.

[Waragainstsleep]

Rodgers has lost his touch this season too. I get the feeling he has banned his players from shooting from outside the box. Possibly the 6-yard box.

[Waragainstsleep]

Not that they can hit anything from that range anymore anyway.

[mattyb]

At least you're in the Champs League.

[Waragainstsleep]

Not for long I suspect.

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by mattyb 

I hope the Arsenal fans are singing 'Are you watching, are you watching, are you watching Louis van Gaal!!!!'.

His first professional hat trick. The passes that got him there were just as brilliant.

Özil has to be played centrally for Arsenal to work properly. I suspect Ox is going to be beast for years to come. A rare bright day for Gooners.