[Hawkeye_a]

A couple of weeks ago the government of Tunisia was over thrown and the government of Lebanon collapsed.

Currently there's some major protesting in the streets of Egypt and Yemen, and Jordan has begun to boil over as well.

Stability has obviously taken a major hit. The ramifications could potentially be huge geo-politically and economically.

What do you guys make of this ? Any predications ?

[osiris]

George Lucas can't film the Star Wars re-make in the Tunisian desert for a while, for one.

/Other than that, I am largely unaffected by this civil unrest. If there was oil there, or some resource worthy of exploiting the natives for - well, that would certainly be different. /s

What ramifications are you speaking of?

Edit: Egypt is off the internet now.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

predications ?

The next generation of dictators is getting ready to take over and exploit the people for another couple of generations.

Business as usual, really.

-t

[OreoCookie]

I'm not as pessimistic as turtle: it's a good opportunity that these nations move towards more democratic governments (note that I'm saying more democratic rather than true democracies) -- and it's a development that comes from the inside rather than the outside. Overall, I'm optimistic that this will have a positiv net effect on the region (even if it takes some time for the dust to settle).

The best we can do is to stay out of it. The worst we can do is interfere or even support autocratic regimes such as Mubarak in Egypt.

[imitchellg5]

The collapse of Lebanon's government is completely unrelated (and happened before) Tunisia.

I think there is a lot of hope for Egypt right now, as long as the West stays out. The US and GB have a history of choosing leaders who will pretend to like their values in return for billions of dollars of aid every year. That will corrupt even an honest leader. Democracy in the Mid East is very possible (Look at Republican Turkey and the democratic movement in Iran), but it has to grow organically, it can't be transplanted.

[Chongo]

Time for the Mahdi to come out of the well.

[OAW]

I think the people in the region want to be free of the authoritarian regimes that have been ruling them. Especially in those countries where the masses are impoverished. Unless there is a military coup the people may overthrow their existing governments and move towards democracy. Having said that, given the long-standing US support for dictatorships in the region ... along with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan ... I wouldn't expect any elected governments in the region to be all that friendly to the US.

OAW

[OAW]

It appears that the US government is threatening to cut off aid to Egypt if its security forces continue to use violence to crush anti-government protestors.*

PS: U.S. Threatens to Cut Off Aid to Egypt - WSJ.com

* - Of course, the same standard wasn't applied to another country in the region that also receives billions per year in US aid when it decided to use violence to crush anti-government occupation protestors. Imagine that.

[ghporter]

The autocrat that ran Tunisia with an iron fist has been deposed, but his "security forces" remain powerful and active. Tunisia is in for a relatively long and unpleasant go. Hopefully they'll move forward, rather than reverting.

Lebanon has only been relatively stable lately. Lack of daily active combat in the streets is "relatively stable" there. But the puppet masters who run the government externally have had some internecine issues, and now the "glue" holding that regime together has failed.

Egypt's stability has been a similar illusion. Mubarek has been in power for decades, and smart, well-educated young people who can't find jobs are still smart. They want answers and options, which Mubarek's government doesn't want to give them the freedoms and options they demand. Egypt is in danger of falling apart because of this.

This is a time of trial, when the forces of oppression face the power of young populations demanding opportunities. It's possible that the results will be very positive. But they will almost certainly be difficult and bloody.

[subego]

I thought this was a pretty amazing photo:



Reminds me of the Vietnam protesters putting flowers in the barrels of M16s.

[BadKosh]

the Muslim Brotherhood...... Another peaceful part of the Muslim world.

My Way News - Jordan's opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants

It really is going to be war between Muslims and the west.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

the Muslim Brotherhood...... Another peaceful part of the Muslim world.

My Way News - Jordan's opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants

It really is going to be war between Muslims and the west.

It's going to be a war between Arabs and Middle East dictators propped up by the West. Don't forget, even Saddam had the support of the West until he stabbed us in the back. The West has a pretty poor track record of picking good dictators to prop up.

[Shaddim]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

The next generation of dictators is getting ready to take over and exploit the people for another couple of generations.

Business as usual, really.

-t

This, sadly.

Gonna go play The Who a bit, seems fitting.

[OldManMac]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

the Muslim Brotherhood...... Another peaceful part of the Muslim world.

My Way News - Jordan's opposition: Arabs will topple tyrants

It really is going to be war between Muslims and the west.

Better check under your bed before you go to sleep.

[Buckaroo]

Let's see the last time an idiot President made a mess of the Middle East, we ended up with 30 years of Iran and a mess that keeps on getting worse. My shame is, I voted for that President. Just like the first idiot, our current idiot is reading from the same playbook.

[Hawkeye_a]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

This is a time of trial, when the forces of oppression face the power of young populations demanding opportunities. It's possible that the results will be very positive. But they will almost certainly be difficult and bloody.

In my observations, revolutions start with positive, idealistic intent. And in the case of Egypt, i hope they end up with a better government than what they had before. A ruler for 30 years ?!!?!? And they call themselves a democracy ?

What worries me after the middle east is, after the old tyrants have been displaced, and the revolt subsides, what kind of politicians will step out of the shadows to take control ?

The French and American revolutions produced some decent governing bodies of the people. But then you look at the Soviets and Iranian....ugh.

In the case of Egypt, they are one of two Arab/Muslim countries that have made peace (a cold peace) with Israel, how will that be affected ? IMHO the peace was on government levels, with the general populous(of Egypt) still very anti-israeli. Will we see a military leader (like Nasser) or heavens forbid the "Muslim Brotherhood" take control, which nullifies that peace ?

I hope this doesn't end up culminating in a middle-east polarized against the west.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

In my observations, revolutions start with positive, idealistic intent. And in the case of Egypt, i hope they end up with a better government than what they had before. A ruler for 30 years ?!!?!?

I think it's a bit disingenuous of us to get too agitated about the Mubarak regime. Of course, it's a totalitarian regime, but one that the West helped stay in power. We were afraid of what would come in its stead if we didn't. Ditto with Pakistan and quite a few other regimes in the past (Iran, Iraq, etc.).

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

The French and American revolutions produced some decent governing bodies of the people. But then you look at the Soviets and Iranian....ugh.

The reason there was an Iranian Revolution is because the West supported the Shah instead of the budding elements of democracy that could have been the basis for a modern state.

In my opinion, there is a similar constellation in many more middle Eastern countries right now and the best we can do is to stay out of it.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

Will we see a military leader (like Nasser) or heavens forbid the "Muslim Brotherhood" take control, which nullifies that peace ?

Democracy doesn't mean that the decisions have to be all good, especially if there are anti-Israeli sentiments that pervade the population. But historical evidence shows that democracies tend to be more stable than other forms of government and lead to more prosperity amongst the population.

[BadKosh]

Originally Posted by OldManMac 

Better check under your bed before you go to sleep.

Thats where I keep my second clip of 45's. Home intruders beware.

[Hawkeye_a]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

I think it's a bit disingenuous of us to get too agitated about the Mubarak regime. Of course, it's a totalitarian regime, but one that the West helped stay in power. We were afraid of what would come in its stead if we didn't. Ditto with Pakistan and quite a few other regimes in the past (Iran, Iraq, etc.).

Yes, I know. Realistically, we go from a government that is our ally in the region, to uncertainty, with the possibility of having one completely at odds with us. (example Gaza)

I am hopeful, but not very optimistic. For some reason i don't think it's just domestic policies and conditions that are responsible for these revolts. I think the governments' alignment with the west (specifically the U.S. and Israel) are a part of it as well.

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

The reason there was an Iranian Revolution is because the West supported the Shah instead of the budding elements of democracy that could have been the basis for a modern state.

Yup, i know that too. And what came out of it was a government that is completely at odds with the U.S. (no point mentioning their views of Israel). While i technically cannot blame the Iranians for being wary of the U.S. after it tried to install a dictator, i would have preferred a "cold war" (like the past 30 odd years) to whats going on today.

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

In my opinion, there is a similar constellation in many more middle Eastern countries right now and the best we can do is to stay out of it.

I'm not sure if I agree with that. If history(Iran, Gaza) is any indication, we stand to loose a lot. Idealistically, yes, it would be the right thing to do to stay out. Either way, i'm kind of glad that change is being brought about internally (as opposed to Afghanistan and Iraq).

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

Democracy doesn't mean that the decisions have to be all good, especially if there are anti-Israeli sentiments that pervade the population. But historical evidence shows that democracies tend to be more stable than other forms of government and lead to more prosperity amongst the population.

Democracy is quite possibly the best "invention" we humans have come up with, and i do agree with you. But, i don't know why, maybe it's because i lived there for so long, but i'm afraid that the choices that will be made will be decisively against the west (think Iran and Gaza).

Cheers

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

For some reason i don't think it's just domestic policies and conditions that are responsible for these revolts. I think the governments' alignment with the west (specifically the U.S. and Israel) are a part of it as well.

Absolutely. Try to think about it from your own perspective for a moment. If your own government was very clearly being propped up and influenced by a foreign power, how would you feel about it? In many ways, the West *prevented* a proper democracy from developing in Egypt.

[OldManMac]

This is change for the better, and if we aren't careful, we'll see the same thing in America someday.

Egyptian protests: America has tolerated dictators for too long. - By Anne Applebaum - Slate Magazine

[Chongo]

Looks like the Obama is from both sides.

Obama will go down in history as the president who lost Egypt - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

Obama will go down in history as the president who lost Egypt
The street revolts in Tunisia and Egypt show that the United States can do very little to save its friends from the wrath of their citizens.
Obama will go down in history as the president who lost Egypt
The street revolts in Tunisia and Egypt show that the United States can do very little to save its friends from the wrath of their citizens.
America's general weakness clearly affects its friends. But unlike Carter, who preached human rights even when it hurt allies, Obama sat on the fence and exercised caution. He neither embraced despised leaders nor evangelized for political freedom, for fear of undermining stability.

Obama began his presidency with trips to Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and in speeches in Ankara and Cairo tried to forge new ties between the United States and the Muslim world. His message to Muslims was "I am one of you," and he backed it by quoting from the Koran. President Hosni Mubarak did not join him on the stage at Cairo University, and Obama did not mention his host. But he did not imitate his hated predecessor, President George W. Bush, with blunt calls for democracy and freedom.

[OldManMac]

Our insatiable appetite for oil is what's driving this unrest, and now it's Obama's fault.

[stumblinmike]

I'm just super proud the Egyptian police are using USA manufactured teargas. Not that inferior British crap...

[Lint Police]

ElBaradei. this won't end well.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a

Yes, I know. Realistically, we go from a government that is our ally in the region, to uncertainty, with the possibility of having one completely at odds with us. (example Gaza)

I think we will see the benefits only in the long-run (say 30-50 years). Just have a look at Europe: it's hard to believe that 60-70 years ago, we were at war for centuries while people my generation have a hard time finding anything worth fighting over for. Of course, the situation is not exactly the same as other Middle Eastern countries aren't as developed, but growing closer economically usually precedes growing closer politically.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a

Yup, i know that too. And what came out of it was a government that is completely at odds with the U.S. (no point mentioning their views of Israel). While i technically cannot blame the Iranians for being wary of the U.S. after it tried to install a dictator, i would have preferred a "cold war" (like the past 30 odd years) to whats going on today.

The US (and many of its allies) didn't try to install a dictator, it succeeded. Although we can't say for certain what would have happened, but back then, internationally politics helped quench a home-grown movement fighting for democratization.

We shouldn't repeat past mistakes by backing Mubarak now. The more we do that, the more the Egyptians will associate the west with backing a dictator and the larger the rift will grow.

If you talk to Iranians living abroad (many of those living abroad like to refer to themselves as Persians -- a clear indication where their allegiances lie), you can see the struggle the people there are going through. One major component nowadays is the internet: even the most tyrannical regime that allows some internet access has no chance to prevent the spread of information. Absolutely zero.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a

I'm not sure if I agree with that. If history(Iran, Gaza) is any indication, we stand to loose a lot. Idealistically, yes, it would be the right thing to do to stay out. Either way, i'm kind of glad that change is being brought about internally (as opposed to Afghanistan and Iraq).

… and unlike Afghanistan or Iraq, this `change' is actually happening and working. You cannot force democracy upon people.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a

Democracy is quite possibly the best "invention" we humans have come up with, and i do agree with you. But, i don't know why, maybe it's because i lived there for so long, but i'm afraid that the choices that will be made will be decisively against the west (think Iran and Gaza).

Again, democracy doesn't protect you against making bad choices. After all, the American re-elected Bush even though all the problems in Afghanistan and Iraq were apparent in 2004. But democracy allows you to more easily rectify problems as well.

In the long run, a more democratic Middle East will lead to a more prosperous and stable region rather than a less stable region.

[BadKosh]

As If our president had a clue/policy/strategy/brain

Obama swaps Iraq and Afghanistan | POLITICO 44

[BadKosh]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

American re-elected Bush even though all the problems in Afghanistan and Iraq were apparent in 2004.

it wasn't JUST BUSH, but congress as well. True, that the first Sec. of Defense was crappy, Congress was already adding in it's two cents in the deal making aspect of getting bills passed for various concessions. The American peoples votes are what put that collection of political personalities together, and we only get the government we deserve.

[Big Mac]

If the Middle East erupts and we see conditions similar to the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, I wonder what that will do to the price of crude. I assume we can expect two to four times the current cost per barrel. What a shock that would be to this jobless recovery. . .

The industrialized world is now a powder keg. As a youth I used to imagine that a WWIII couldn't ever occur because of the nuclear age and MAD, but I'm not so sure now. I think it's possible to have a low intensity world war over terrorism and control of strategic resources.

[ghporter]

Originally Posted by OldManMac 

Our insatiable appetite for oil is what's driving this unrest, and now it's Obama's fault.

Beg pardon? The West's (and especially the US's) thirst for (formerly) cheap crude oil made some parts of the Arab world wealthy enough to become problematic-see the Saudis, etc. But how is Lebanon affected by oil demand? How is Egypt affected?

I think perhaps our exporting an image that all young people should be educated and plugged into cell service, social media, and more has a lot to do with how well the unrest has spread. I like the idea (without data supporting it) that our popularizing the image of young, educated and activist as agents of social change has encouraged this. But not oil.

There is one tangential oil connection I could see; that oil-wealthy countries have strictly controlled their religious segments, pushing the more extreme elements away to other countries where they could stir up extremist, fundamentalist pressures. This could cause a backlash among the young who have seen the religious segments of their own societies become more and more extremist... But that's quite a stretch as far as I'm concerned.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

Beg pardon? The West's (and especially the US's) thirst for (formerly) cheap crude oil made some parts of the Arab world wealthy enough to become problematic-see the Saudis, etc. But how is Lebanon affected by oil demand? How is Egypt affected?

The Suez Canal for one, but per latest Reuters report, officials maintain that "The Suez Canal is working normally ... The company still has the ability to transport the employees needed to maintain the flow of ships through the canal..." In spite of this report, I still fully expect the price of oil to jump in response.

I think perhaps our exporting an image that all young people should be educated and plugged into cell service, social media, and more has a lot to do with how well the unrest has spread. I like the idea (without data supporting it) that our popularizing the image of young, educated and activist as agents of social change has encouraged this. But not oil.

Bingo! You not only have uprisings bearing fruit for protesters in Tunisia and Yemen, but you have a relative economic boom in Iraq; gdp, real estate, construction, automobiles, television, and cellular usage all increasing sharply throughout the region of implanted democracy. When freedom and prosperity is witnessed, it is wanted and now Egypt's people would like their own piece of the pie. It was only a matter of time and there will be more and more of this throughout the Middle East.

There is one tangential oil connection I could see; that oil-wealthy countries have strictly controlled their religious segments, pushing the more extreme elements away to other countries where they could stir up extremist, fundamentalist pressures. This could cause a backlash among the young who have seen the religious segments of their own societies become more and more extremist... But that's quite a stretch as far as I'm concerned.

Agreed. There's a fashionable need to connect all the world's ills to oil. Ironically, the complaint is never backed by calls for domestic production. I think these complainers should be required to post their calculated carbon footprint if nothing more than to establish how wasteful that VW microbus is.

[ebuddy]

Next up... Iran. Once more with feeling.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by ghporter 

Beg pardon?

Come one, Glenn, Rookie mistake: taking OldManMac seriously.

-t

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by ebuddy 

Next up... Iran. Once more with feeling.

Like I said before, Time for the Mahdi to come out of his well. Ahmadinejad prays for his arrival.
YouTube - Arrival of Mahdi And Views of Ahmadinejad

[Hawkeye_a]

An article in the New York Times, illustrates my deep worries for the region.

Egypt's Unrest Prompts Worry And Planning

A question for the "Pro-Arab" side on these boards.... i'm still waiting to hear from the so called "moderates". Apparently there have already been protests against the U.S. and Israel.

@OreoCookie
I appreciate your idealism, and optimistic outlook. But i still worry deeply for the Christians of Egypt and Lebanon and for Israel, because after Gaza, i dont have very high expectations of the Muslim world to support these illusive "moderates" i keep hearing about. Long term outlooks are all well and good, if one can guarantee a "long term".

Regards comments about Bush(IMHO):
Suddenly all those oil reserves built up over the past years don't seem so stupid do they ? Can you fathom what will happen to oil prices and international trade if Suez is blocked ?

While Obama goes down in history as the American president who lost Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt as allies. (And that's not including that outstretched hand to Iran BS). What America needs now is a leader as decisive as Bush, not one as indecisiveness as Obama who has yet to accomplish anything positive for the people who gave him his position. (IMHO).

Cheers

[Wiskedjak]

It's unfortunate for Lieberman that every time he tries to push for an Internet-off-switch, something happens to show the democratic value of the Internet and paint governments who turn off the Internet as tyrannical.

[OreoCookie]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

it wasn't JUST BUSH, but congress as well. True, that the first Sec. of Defense was crappy, Congress was already adding in it's two cents in the deal making aspect of getting bills passed for various concessions. The American peoples votes are what put that collection of political personalities together, and we only get the government we deserve.

You're absolutely right, it was also Congress, I should have added that.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

@OreoCookie
I appreciate your idealism, and optimistic outlook. But i still worry deeply for the Christians of Egypt and Lebanon and for Israel, because after Gaza, i dont have very high expectations of the Muslim world to support these illusive "moderates" i keep hearing about. Long term outlooks are all well and good, if one can guarantee a "long term".

Nobody can give you a guarantee in life for anything (except for death and taxes, of course ). But I'd prefer dealing with democratic countries rather than dictatorships. I'm optimistic, because I've seen it work here where I live. And I'm a firm believer in democracy.

I don't think anything will change in the short-term: no muslim country will seriously think about attacking Israel. Even if hardcore islamist will win elections somewhere, the outcome of these elections will not change this basic fact and I have no immediate concerns. If you look at why people are going on the streets of Kairo or Tunis, it's because of lack of freedom, democratic participation and the high rate of unemployment amongst young people (which represent a large share of the population in these countries). Put differently, I think they have other worries than Israel at the moment.

I've read in the news today that Israel is asking foreign leaders to continue supporting the Mubarak regime. IMHO that's a mistake, they should keep out of it.

Originally Posted by Hawkeye_a 

While Obama goes down in history as the American president who lost Turkey, Lebanon and Egypt as allies.

I think it's a misnomer if one says `Obama lost Egypt' when there is a home-grown revolution fighting for more participation in the political process.

[olePigeon]

Politics aside, do any of you think this would have happened 20 years ago? Even 10 years? I wonder how much of a role social media helped in causing the chain of reaction. As more and more countries become connected, I wonder how much longer dictators can expect to stay in power. Not all those countries have the same resources as China to filter and sensor information on the internet.

[ebuddy]

Originally Posted by olePigeon 

Politics aside, do any of you think this would have happened 20 years ago? Even 10 years? I wonder how much of a role social media helped in causing the chain of reaction. As more and more countries become connected, I wonder how much longer dictators can expect to stay in power. Not all those countries have the same resources as China to filter and sensor information on the internet.

It's hard to answer this question to be honest. I mean, we know this kind of thing has certainly happened before, but you have to think modern communication technology has a role. They're also witnessing in others what they want for themselves and they're witnessing others influence change by taking to the streets which you have to think is also playing a role in this.

*As an aside, Google has just launched a service (literally today) in response to all this that allows you to call a number, leave a message, and that message is tweeted.

[Wiskedjak]

There's a reason why China is trying to keep it's citizens from learning about what is happenning in Egypt. Social media is playing a HUGE role here.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

There's a reason why China is trying to keep it's citizens from learning about what is happenning in Egypt. Social media is playing a HUGE role here.

The Chinese military has no problem shooting their own people.

[CRASH HARDDRIVE]

It would be nice to see Egypt shake off the shackles of (frankly one of the most benign) middle eastern dictatorship, but somehow I fear this is going to end up much like Iran: out with the old regime which was bad...

...and in with the new regime which is orders of magnitude worse.

[BadKosh]

The "Muslim Brotherhood" is not the answer. What they really don't need is Hammas/Nazi's dictating the future of those ignorant people. its the ignorance that has them believing all the BS, because they just don't know much beyond the lies and spin. They won't be able to feed themselves, or educate themselves outside of Muslim diatribe. Chaos is just what the bad guys want though. The "Muslim Brotherhood" stood with the Nazis' during WWII.

[OldManMac]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Come one, Glenn, Rookie mistake: taking OldManMac seriously.

-t

I wouldn't expect you to understand the big picture.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

The Chinese military has no problem shooting their own people.

Sure, but revolts are still messy and risky. The Chinese military is seriously outnumbered by the Chinese population. And, with the majority of the military being conscripts, you'd probably see many deserters.

Shooting your own people has as much chance of escalating a revolt as it does of quelling it. The military strategists will understand that and China clearly doesn't want it's population getting any ideas in their heads so they're trying to stop their people from learning about what's happening in Egypt.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by OldManMac 

I wouldn't expect you to understand the big picture.

Oh, let me guess, that's what we have *you* for ?

-t

[Chongo]

The real cause of the unrest:
Reports: Egyptian and Tunisian riots were driven in part by the spike in global food prices � Climate Progress

[BadKosh]

So the Muslim Brotherhood had nothing to do with all this? Why is it that they can't grow enough food to feed themselves and keep the prices down? Nobody knows how to grow crops? Everybody is an Islamist scholar and nobody has skills.

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

The real cause of the unrest:
Reports: Egyptian and Tunisian riots were driven in part by the spike in global food prices � Climate Progress

You mean part of the cause.

[SpaceMonkey]

Originally Posted by BadKosh 

So the Muslim Brotherhood had nothing to do with all this? Why is it that they can't grow enough food to feed themselves and keep the prices down? Nobody knows how to grow crops? Everybody is an Islamist scholar and nobody has skills.

Wow.