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Powerbook · Nov 5, 2009, 11:21 AM

I thought the recent sell-off was ridiculous regarding the companies' business numbers...
Anybody also in on GARMIN? Looking quite green for a start.

Regards
PB.

Big Mac · Nov 5, 2009, 05:32 PM

Seems like a pretty decent entry point, Powerbook.

turtle777 · Nov 5, 2009, 05:38 PM

I'm not so sure.

It's hard to tell how much of a competition cell phone based navigation is going to be. It will put quite a bit of pressure on Garmin and TomTom.

-t

Art Vandelay · Nov 5, 2009, 05:56 PM

Especially considering Google has free turn-by-turn navigation now in Android 2.0. This is the reason behind the recent sell off of Garmin, et al.

downinflames68 · Nov 5, 2009, 06:10 PM

I think you should put 10k into me.

Powerbook · Nov 5, 2009, 06:14 PM

My reason for Garmin and against iPhone, Android clones or TomTom:
Garmin is rather for the professional market. The iPhone is the funny consumer thing. "Nobody" would try to navigate a boat, plane or commercial trekking tour etc with an iPhone. Garmin has good ties also to military and the automotive sector.

Some 55 $ / share are entirely possible in the next 12 months - which would be my most optimistic assumption.

Regards
PB.

turtle777 · Nov 5, 2009, 06:17 PM

Good point, PB.

-t

Spheric Harlot · Nov 5, 2009, 07:13 PM

Originally Posted by downinflames68

I think you should put 10k into me.

design him a platinum-and-diamond dildo.

Eug · 05:12 AM

After the dot com bust and the huge selloff of Nortel, I put a bunch of money into Nortel. They had a lot of smart people, and they had significant IP. And it was cheap.

It floundered for a while, and I sold after a brief climb, making a little profit, but not much of one... and then it started to slide... and then it went bankrupt.

I hope Garmin doesn't turn out that way, but I'm just saying that just because there's been a selloff and it seems cheap doesn't mean it will definitely rise.

ctt1wbw · Nov 5, 2009, 09:33 PM

After the Mexican restaraunt last night, I'd put 10k into Charmin.

Phileas · Nov 6, 2009, 12:34 AM

I would not put any cash into any GPS developer right now. I would want to see how that google app shakes out.

OldManMac · Nov 6, 2009, 01:03 AM

Commercial truck drivers already have Qualcomm terminals, and I don't believe the "commercial" market is that big, as guidance in cars is the next big thing. I read an article the other day that basically said that Garmin and TomTom are dwindling products, because of the coming delineation between the professional and consumer markets. The airline industry also already has products for that, so it's a mature market. I wouldn't put any money into either one.

ctt1wbw · Nov 6, 2009, 12:14 PM

I read that the GPS satellites are getting near ancient and need to be replaced soon. Not sure how long they will last, but I read that somewhere.

sdilley14 · Nov 6, 2009, 12:35 PM

I like the idea of buying into Garmin right now.

I just have a hard time envisioning using my cell phone for a true navigation unit. I mean, its handy, and I could see a lot of people taking advantage of it, but theres something about having a separate, dedicated device for it that I feel more comfortable with. Its like people using their cell phones for their primary camera or primary music playing device (iPhone being the exception to the latter). I can't picture myself mounting my cell phone in my car, using it as a GPS unit, and trying to talk on it and text on it at the same time.

I will however say that I haven't used navigation on a cell phone in about a year or so, so maybe I'm speaking out of turn.

Powerbook · Nov 6, 2009, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by ctt1wbw

I read that the GPS satellites are getting near ancient and need to be replaced soon. Not sure how long they will last, but I read that somewhere.

I'm sure the smart folks at Garmin are informed of these facts.

Global Positioning System #Timeline_and_modernization

Also the next chance for Garmin to get a bigger market will be Galileo.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo...te_navigation)

Regards
PB.

Phileas · Nov 6, 2009, 07:15 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

I will however say that I haven't used navigation on a cell phone in about a year or so, so maybe I'm speaking out of turn.

I've just got a Parrot system installed in my car. it's awesome.

Scenario 1: Phone is in my pocket. The Parrot will connect to the iPhone, when a call comes through it will mute the stereo and put the call through the car speakers. A mike is part of the unit and mounted underneath the rear view mirror.

I can also stream music via bluetooth, all with the iPhone staying in my pocket. Apart from forward/stop/rewind I can't really control the iPhone in this setup.

Scenario 2: I put the iPhone into an external cradle with a charger. It connects to the Parrot either via bluetooth or via line-out. Again, calls are routed through the stereo, and I can use the GPS. The iPod will automatically mute when the GPS wants to give voice instructions.

Scenario 3: The iPhone goes into the glove compartment where the Parrot has a cradle that accepts iPhones and iPods and when plugged in offers full remote control from the dash. If that's not an option I can use any mp3 player through line in or a USB stick or an SD card.

Using a cell phone without a hands free device just got made illegal here in Ontario, so these things have been flying off the shelves.

rickey939 · Nov 7, 2009, 01:31 AM

Garmin is based in Olathe, KS.....I trust nobody from Kansas.

Paco500 · Nov 7, 2009, 07:11 AM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

I just have a hard time envisioning using my cell phone for a true navigation unit. I mean, its handy, and I could see a lot of people taking advantage of it, but theres something about having a separate, dedicated device for it that I feel more comfortable with. Its like people using their cell phones for their primary camera or primary music playing device (iPhone being the exception to the latter). I can't picture myself mounting my cell phone in my car, using it as a GPS unit, and trying to talk on it and text on it at the same time.

I will caveat this by saying I think Garmin might be a good buy, as so much of their business is based NOT on in-car navigation.

However, I use a crap app on a blackberry curve for my nav purposes. It is nowhere near as user friendly as my wife's tomtom (who best come up with something or Google will drive them an their ridiculously priced cradle/app out of business), but I have to mount it to use hands free anyway and the nav app is "good enough" to get me where I'm going without fail.

I think stand-alone navigation systems will continue to exists, but will end up as a very niche market with built-in systems an/or mobile phone based systems being the norm.

If TomTom and Garmin have any sense, I think they will push like crazy to license their tech to car manufacturers to replace the abysmal built in systems. Obviously not as good a market as upgrades just will not happen as often, but it will be something.

sdilley14 · Nov 7, 2009, 09:45 AM

Originally Posted by Phileas

I've just got a Parrot system installed in my car. it's awesome.

Scenario 1: Phone is in my pocket. The Parrot will connect to the iPhone, when a call comes through it will mute the stereo and put the call through the car speakers. A mike is part of the unit and mounted underneath the rear view mirror.

I can also stream music via bluetooth, all with the iPhone staying in my pocket. Apart from forward/stop/rewind I can't really control the iPhone in this setup.

Scenario 2: I put the iPhone into an external cradle with a charger. It connects to the Parrot either via bluetooth or via line-out. Again, calls are routed through the stereo, and I can use the GPS. The iPod will automatically mute when the GPS wants to give voice instructions.

Scenario 3: The iPhone goes into the glove compartment where the Parrot has a cradle that accepts iPhones and iPods and when plugged in offers full remote control from the dash. If that's not an option I can use any mp3 player through line in or a USB stick or an SD card.

Using a cell phone without a hands free device just got made illegal here in Ontario, so these things have been flying off the shelves.

I guess my issue with this is that I don't really like using speaker phone at all. Or, what if the stereo in my car doesn't support this type of function? What if I want to have a text conversation on my phone while I still need GPS function to be working?

Phileas · Nov 7, 2009, 12:10 PM

The Parrot is designed to work with car stereos that don't support phones - like mine. It comes with it's own amplifier and sits between the stereo and the speakers. When it needs to take over, a mute box kicks in, muting the radio and allowing the Parrot to use the speakers.

And texting while driving? Dude.

kangbroke · Nov 7, 2009, 12:18 PM

I find the garmin is the best with delivering newspapers

LegendaryPinkOx · Nov 7, 2009, 01:11 PM

Originally Posted by rickey939

Garmin is based in Olathe, KS.....I trust nobody from Kansas.

Especially Johnson County

.

rickey939 · Nov 8, 2009, 12:58 AM

Originally Posted by LegendaryPinkOx

Especially Johnson County

.

Amen, way too many Jayhawk alums....enough said.

Peter · Nov 9, 2009, 07:24 AM

I really wouldn't invest in Garmin. I fully grok that they aren't a 100% consumer play. Do you know what % of their revenue was predicted to have come from consumers over the next three years? If its more than 10% that hurt hurt hurts!

Ship building is at an all time low, Furuno is killing that market last time I checked. Raytheon is also in the space and they have deep deep pockets.

You're buying low and I'm honestly not sure what the big upsell is that they could pull off.

el chupacabra · Nov 9, 2009, 03:21 PM

Originally Posted by sdilley14

I guess my issue with this is that I don't really like using speaker phone at all. Or, what if the stereo in my car doesn't support this type of function? What if I want to have a text conversation on my phone while I still need GPS function to be working?

You want to text, talk, and drive at the same time?!
is that it.. sure you don't want a rum and coke to go along with that?

sdilley14 · Nov 9, 2009, 11:26 PM

Originally Posted by el chupacabra

You want to text, talk, and drive at the same time?!
is that it.. sure you don't want a rum and coke to go along with that?

Of course I want a rum and Coke while I'm texting, talking, and driving.

Can I text and talk while I'm a passenger, or no?

Powerbook · Nov 12, 2009, 11:22 AM

So, the first 1000 $ are in, with 11% plus at the moment.
Will set a stop loss after the bell tonight to be sure.

PB.

Powerbook · Nov 25, 2009, 03:31 PM

Garmin Navigation May Triumph Over Google at Christmas (GRMN, GOOG)
Posted: November 25, 2009 at 9:05 am

Garmin Ltd. (NASDAQ: GRMN) took it right on the chin in recent weeks after Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) launched its personal navigation system as an app on its new smartphones for free. Despite the company’s guidance and earnings, this stock slid and slid rapidly as shares went from $38.00 down to under $28.00 before its recent stabilization around $31.00 currently. It turns out that the threat may still be a long-term one, but it does not appear to be one today if online shopping data is worth anything.

PriceGrabber.com is one of the most popular price-comparison search tools used by many online shoppers to instantly get price data on certain products. It also has its ‘most popular’ section. After looking through this and elsewhere for personal shopping duties, it was hard to not notice how prominent Garmin was in popular terms. This service does not measure sell-through rates, but it does show that GPS device, particularly Garmin, are high on the list this year going into the holiday season.

The Garmin nuvi 255W GPS device (from $129.99) was the number #11 feature in the top 200 products. And on page 2 are both the Garmin nuvi 765T GPS (from $218.47) and the Garmin nuvi 265WT GPS (from $162.05). That translates to 3 Garmin products in the top 50 searches, and that is in the top 200 overall rather than just the top 200 in electronics.

At Amazon.com the Google smartphone is nowhere to be found on the “car electronics & GPS”page, although of course that is heavily dominated by Garmin placement.

Is that enough to say that Google is not going to be a threat to Garmin. If this included sell-though data maybe. But this might lessen some of the concerns for the time being that Garmin is going to go away.

JON C. OGG
Garmin Navigation May Triumph Over Google at Christmas (GRMN, GOOG) – 24/7 Wall St.

sdilley14 · Nov 25, 2009, 04:38 PM

Congrats! You bought at a great time. The stock took a big hit and it was based solely on news and hype. One day of reports about Google taking over the GPS market and BOOM, the stock takes a big hit. You bought in at a discount and now you're reaping the rewards. Others panicked and you saw a good opportunity. Good work.