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Iran-Israel War
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subego
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Apr 13, 2024, 06:01 PM
 
Curious about Iran’s strategy, especially if the attack fails.
     
OreoCookie
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Apr 14, 2024, 03:08 AM
 
One likely scenario is that Iran will leave at that, tit for Israel’s tat (the Israeli attack on Iran’s consulate in Syria).
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subego  (op)
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Apr 14, 2024, 03:37 AM
 
That seems to be what they’re pitching.
     
Thorzdad
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Apr 14, 2024, 08:01 AM
 
I seriously doubt Israel will leave it at that, unfortunately.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 14, 2024, 11:30 AM
 
My (perhaps optimistic) assumption is Israel won’t blow anything up they didn’t already intend to before this happened. It might rearrange the timetable, but that’s it.
     
andi*pandi
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Apr 14, 2024, 11:42 AM
 
reddit seems to think it's all for show. So Iran could be seen as doing something even if it was not successful.
     
reader50
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Apr 14, 2024, 01:34 PM
 
I have mixed feelings about the Israel - Iran tiff. News reports have referred to the Syria target as a "consulate" sometimes, or as an "embassy" other times. If it were an embassy, then Israel attacked part of Iran, and broke international law. Iran would have no choice but to respond, or they'd give Israel license to attack within Iran any time. Of course, Iran overran the US embassy during their revolution, so their moral position isn't the best. Took hostages too.

Alternatively, a consulate is just a local office - it hasn't been temporarily deeded over to another country. It remains part of Syria.

... why were a bunch of Iranian generals meeting or living in their consulate/embassy in Syria? Smells very fishy.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 14, 2024, 02:21 PM
 
The only alternative to saying it was an attack on Iranian territory was to say it was an attack on Syrian territory. IMO, at least one of them gets to hit back should they desire.
     
reader50
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Apr 14, 2024, 02:36 PM
 
Israel is bogged down in Gaza. Experts suggest they didn't settle on an exit strategy before going in - same mistake the US made in several of our wars (Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan).
Israel also has a simmering fight with Hezbollah on the northern border (though not with Lebanon government).
Now they're exchanging fire with Iran.

My advice would be to limit their military commitments. You can't fight everyone at the same time. Not if you expect to win. They should go back to quiet ops they don't take credit for. Like assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists in Iran. Attacking the consulate/embassy openly as themselves was a serious error.

Um, are we rooting for state-sponsored assassinations? While better than a mass exchange of fire on civilian targets, I don't consider it acceptable either.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 14, 2024, 03:13 PM
 
I don’t root for state-sponsored assassinations, but I think it’s unrealistic to think appropriate scenarios don’t exist.
     
Thorzdad
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Apr 14, 2024, 04:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
Um, are we rooting for state-sponsored assassinations? While better than a mass exchange of fire on civilian targets, I don't consider it acceptable either.
I dunno. I can accept testing the idea somewhere in russia.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 14, 2024, 06:12 PM
 
As an aside, in regards to the embassy attack, were those targets assassinated or killed in combat?

I’d tend towards the latter.
     
reader50
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Apr 14, 2024, 09:54 PM
 
As the attack was open, using military assets, I'd agree. Killed in combat. Assassinations would be irregular kills in a civilian setting. Usually unclaimed. Not always professional.

Recall the original assassins. Members of the Nizari, used lots of hashish before an op, go kill heretics. Original meaning: hashish-eater.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 15, 2024, 02:53 AM
 
     
Doc HM
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Apr 15, 2024, 03:49 AM
 
It's always useful to at least try to put yourselves in the other persons shoes. The fact that Iran's attack failed surprised effectively no-one. I can't believe that the Iranian military were shocked, nor their masters. It seems like a reach to imagine that launching 300 drones/missiles could be seen as simply for show but it IS entirely possible.
The second option is that it is simply the original Hamas attack v2. Knowing doomed to fail but designed to goad Israel into another round of massive overreaction and destruction? I can't not see Israel taking this bait. Again.
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subego  (op)
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Apr 15, 2024, 05:01 AM
 
I find this type of thing mildly interesting.

     
Thorzdad
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Apr 15, 2024, 07:19 AM
 
Is that graphic for the time frame of the expected Iranian attack? Or do flights always avoid Iraqi airspace in general?
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 15, 2024, 07:50 AM
 
Sorry! Midnight GMT during the attack.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 15, 2024, 11:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
     
Thorzdad
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Apr 15, 2024, 12:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Sorry! Midnight GMT during the attack.
I wondered. Apparently Iran gave everyone involved warning ahead of time, so it makes sense airlines were able to be rerouted.
     
subego  (op)
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Apr 15, 2024, 12:21 PM
 
Various sources were predicting it a week before it happened.
     
   
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