[NewsPoster]

Although Apple CEO Tim Cook remains "bullish" on the future of tablets, Apple and the market generally for tablets is declining as consumers continue to favor large-screen smartphones for tablet-like functions, and as companies struggle to figure out what the replacement cycle for the still-popular devices is or should be, says research firm IDC. According to Apple, it sold 11.2 million iPads (with shipments of 10.9 million) in its fiscal third quarter, down from 13.7 million sold in the previous quarter.

Apple is likely to see one more quarter of declining iPad sales ahead of an expected refresh expected at the end of the current quarter. Sales of the iPad have been declining at a rate faster than the usual seasonal variances would suggest, however, in part because of a perception among early adopters than current models are not sufficiently different enough to make upgrading from, for example, an iPad 2 (originally produced in 2011 and sold for three years, whereas most models have been discontinued after roughly a year of production) a compelling option.

The next model of iPad, coupled with the much speedier and more efficient iOS 9 (which also introduces a clutch of productivity-enhancing features, such as split-screen) may reverse Apple's fortunes with the iPad, but the company's gently-declining sales of the iPad are reflective of the market in general, as IDC's estimate of shipments shows. The research firm also claims that the iPad is losing marketshare, but that claim is harder to substantiate due to shipments not always being reflective of end-user sales.

What is clear is that competitors, who often produce lower-spec'd and consequently cheaper tablets, have seen some success in flooding the existing tablet market with low-end versions, particularly in developing markets. While tablets are eventually expected to replace low-end desktops (and to a lesser extent notebooks) for typical users in the long-term, the initial popularity of the iPad and its subsequent alternatives has mostly been as a passive entertainment device, with notebooks preferred for content creation.

Samsung remains the second-highest shipper of tablets, but also saw its its shipments decline 12 percent year-over-year to 7.6 million units. Rounding out the top five are two Chinese firms -- Lenovo and Huawei -- and the Korea-based LG. No-name or lesser tablet makers combined nearly rival the output of the top five firms.

Rumors have suggested -- and Cook himself has hinted -- that future innovations will add value to the iPad and perhaps trigger an upgrade cycle or attract new buyers through new features. One rumor has the company producing a 12.9-inch "iPad Pro" aimed at enterprise and education, two of the core markets outside consumer sales for tablets generally and the iPad specifically, though there have been no parts leaks or other indicators that any production of such a device is actually underway beyond possible prototyping.

[iphonerulez]

I still don't quite understand why they're making such a big thing out of Apple losing tablet market share. It's fairly obvious that Apple is making it up selling the higher margin iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus smartphones. It makes a lot of sense consumers are deciding to save money by purchasing a dual-purpose iPhone 6 over the single-purpose iPad. As long as consumers are substituting one Apple device for another with an even higher profit margin that seems like a good thing for Apple. Maybe the iPad tablet market will continue to decline until Apple figures a way to make the iPad look more attractive to consumers, but consumers are smart in buying iPhones over iPads if that's what makes more sense to them. It's better for the ecology, too. No point in buying a device that's not going to be used very much.

[Charles Martin]

This is exactly Apple's thinking on the matter as well. Much less interested in whether a given product is doing well as whether customers and new users are buying into the Apple ecosystem generally, which is exactly what seems to be happening. For the record, I've owned three iPads: the first, the third, and the latest iPad Air 2. I get a *lot* of use out of each of them, both passively (watching movies, playing games) and actively (writing).

[Steve Wilkinson]

I think it's pretty simple. Yes, I'm sure the product lines are eroding one-another, but as mentioned, as long as it's within the Apple system, no problem.

But, I also think this is just a natural trend anyway, for a couple of reasons:

1) Market saturation. Aside from replacements/upgrades (which most people aren't going to do on a device in that price-range any more quickly than they would with a laptop/desktop), most people already have one (or more) and just don't need to keep buying at the pace they once did.

2) The differential between tablet and laptop has narrowed greatly. When I first starting using the iPad, I was desperate to get more than 2-3 hours of battery life and still be really mobile. In that sense, nothing could touch the iPad. I also wanted the quick on/off capability. Those, aside from the form factor which is still and advantage/disadvantage were my main motivators. So, now, aside from form factor, those problems I was trying to solve with a table don't really exist.

I now use the device that best fits what I do, as the other barriers are gone. Most often, that's a laptop for me. I used to put up with some of the lost productivity of the iPad for those other gains. I don't anymore. But, I still use my iPad quite a bit, as it's better for it's purposes as well. But, if I fell on hard times, the laptop would easily win-out. That wasn't the case several years ago, when I only had an iPad for mobile use.

[Charles Martin]

Steve you've brought up a really insightful point -- the great advances in battery life and the use of flash storage have really served to merge the functionality of the two devices, giving lightweight notebooks like the Air and MacBook a big advantage.

I still prefer a tablet for reading or watching movies in bed/on the sofa (don't have TV), and as a writer I love the fact that the iPad with a keyboard can be used in portrait mode, but yeah -- I can see where most people would choose an Air or Retina MacBook over an iPad, even with the higher cost.

[Steve Wilkinson]

Charles, yes for sure (and thanks!). Current laptops and tablets are now so close in many ways that it really is more of a usage-case, as you're pointing out.

For example, I typically use my iPad on flights, even with the screen-keyboard, as using the laptop just isn't comfortable. Getting some typing done is better than none. Or, if you're on public transit, a tablet is more convenient. Or, like you say, sitting on the couch reading or watching video.

Another thing is how the device is perceived in various social situations. For example, pulling out an iPad at a coffee shop for a more informal 'meeting' isn't as socially obtrusive as a laptop. Or, a doctor can run down a check-list or take a few notes easier with a tablet than rolling over to the computer.

But, when I've got work to get done, and have a real choice between the two, I nearly always pick the laptop.