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You are here: MacNN Forums > News > Mac News > Rumor Roundup: What we know is that we don't 'know'

Rumor Roundup: What we know is that we don't 'know'
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Apr 11, 2016, 09:08 PM
 
We begin this week's Rumor Roundup with a small rant: too many other sites tend to report on rumors as fact, and even go so far as to post articles about what they "know" about, say, the "iPhone 7." This annoys us, as it is at best misleading and at worst, deceptive. Nobody outside Apple -- particularly not puffed-up stock analysts -- "knows" anything about unannounced products. Obviously, some things are much more likely than others -- Apple will probably bring out a new flagship model this fall, WWDC will be about updates to OS X and iOS primarily, that sort of thing, but if there's one thing we "know" about Apple, it's that they like to mix it up a bit now and then.

Case in point, the first: if you go back and read Rumor Roundup from about four months ago, you will see that the rumor mill "knew" that the March Apple event was going to herald an all-new "Apple Watch 2." In fact, in January it was going into production -- just ask Quanta's chairman! Oh wait, sorry, that didn't happen -- but various sites talked about it for literally months as a given.

One of the sources for this was Taiwan's Commercial Times trade paper, but echoed by vaunted analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities -- who had previously said that Apple would have the Apple "iWatch" (as it was known then) out before the end of 2014 (yes, that's 2014), but in limited supply of only around three million units. For Christmas. Off by just that much. He has "sources," you know. This is not to rag on Ming-Chi so much as to point out that he -- and other analysts -- are generally more wrong the farther ahead of an event in their predictions, that's all.

His reputation as "reliable" or an "insider" doesn't come from Ming-Chi himself, it comes mostly from sites that ignore when he's wrong and exaggerate his track record when he's right -- and he is, to be fair, above average among pundits on broad generalities getting called early, but average or below-average on specifics. Case in point, the second: Ming-Chi is on the record as saying there won't even be an "iPhone 7" this year (though it might be called that) -- he has said that this fall's flagship will look and be much like the iPhone 6s, with only minor exterior changes and some notable but not revolutionary internal changes.

The thinner 'iPhone 7,' coming this fall?
The thinner 'iPhone 7,' coming this fall?


So, essentially, we're getting an iPhone 6s with more "s," and the real redesign, he says, is coming in 2017 -- when we would normally be getting the "iPhone 7s." His big prediction of his that the "iPhone 7" will be another "tock" cycle rather than a "tick" of a new design may be inspired by Intel's announcement of that happening to their chips, and this will most definitely have an impact on Mac development -- but the ARM(s) race of Apple's A(x) chips aren't seeing any such constraints, at least not yet. Everything we've seen so far suggest that he's right, but if so -- won't that cause a huge wave of deeply-disappointed potential buyers, hurting AAPL and accelerating the iPhone's slowing growth? You'd think that would be the story, wouldn't you?

The iPhone 7, expected this fall

So, apparently, this fall will bring an "iPhone 7" that won't look much different from the present iPhone 6s in terms of exterior design: it may be thinner (6.1mm, a full millimeter thinner than the 7.1mm iPhone 6s, has been claimed -- which would make the next iPhone as thin as the iPod touch), but it is expected come in the same colors as presently, be the same shape, and only move the ceramic bands around a bit to make them less noticeable. Of course, it will use a faster chip with better graphics, and "of course" will lack a headphone jack because digital, and there's all kinds of other possible under-the-hood changes -- but to your average consumer, it will look and act substantially the same.

A quick review of various stories posted about the "iPhone 7" by us and our sister site Appleinsider has listed the following things as being part or planned for the "iPhone 7:" a dual-camera system (on the "Plus" model only, which could be renamed the "Pro"); no physical home button, with that functionality incorporated into the screen; a USB-C connector (oh but wait, aren't they going with Lightning when the drop the headphone jack?); multi-touch 3D Touch; 256GB of storage; a larger battery (but still, somehow be 1mm thinner!); waterproof; more EMI shielding; real stereo speakers; an AMOLED screen (which might be pushed to the 2017 iPhone, says Ming-Chi); a flush camera (or, um, two but with a "bump); and will offer wireless charging, noise-cancelling Bluetooth EarPods, and Li-Fi (look it up) technology.

Tech Radar's idea of the 'iPhone 7'
Tech Radar's idea of the 'iPhone 7'


Even if every single one of these sometimes-contradictory technologies could be stuffed into this even-thinner device, however, the fact that it would look almost identical to the iPhone 6s would be a huge psychological barrier for Apple to somehow overcome, and an opportunity for rivals to capitalize on consumers that are "bored" of the iPhone 6/6s look. On top of this, a number of readers and others have called for Apple to actually knock it off wth the thinness already, and actually make the next iPhone thicker so that it can hold a more powerful battery (which would also make it heavier, but handwave that part).

One of many concepts for the 'iPhone 7'
One of many concepts for the 'iPhone 7'


So here's what we actually think we "know" (or, to put it another way, "believe") about the next iPhone: we expect a new one in the fall, we think it will be notably but not enormously improved from the one we have now, and we totally buy in to the idea that Apple will drop the headphone jack, for thinness reasons and for anti-analog reasons and for annoying the easily-annoyed reasons. Apple does that; it's another thing we "know" about them.

New MacBooks

On this topic, we find ourselves in the unusual position of being bored with a rumor. This is because this one has very little mystery to it, and seems both likely and unsurprising: essentially, Apple will announce a refresh of at least some, if not all, of the MacBook family (MacBook, Air, Pro) ahead of the annual Worldwide Developer Conference in early June). Presently, the rumor mill posits a refresh around the end of April, but we're inclined to believe it more likely at the end of May. The most likely model to get an update is the MacBook, which launched almost exactly a year ago, but the general consensus is that all models will get a chip upgrade to "Skylake" class Intel chips.

A concept for the 2016 MacBook Pro
A concept for the 2016 MacBook Pro


We admit we are in love with a rumor that the MacBook, which currently uses a very low-spec, low-power Intel chip will actually get changed over to using an ARM-based A9x type chip (but still running OS X) as part of a general One Chipset to Rule Them All strategy, but even if this were true it is likely to be still a year or two away. The rumor consensus is that the MacBook Air line will become more like slighly larger MacBooks -- much thinner and lighter like the MB, but keep the 13-inch screen size of the latter Air. The MacBook Pros, it is claimed, will get a little thinner but be quite distinct from the MacBook/merged-Air lineup, using top of the line Skylake chips with less emphasis on power-saving and no-fan cooling than the MacBook family. The whole gang will be migrated over to USB-C, with the Pro line being the only one offering more than one such port (and maybe the fused USB-C 3.1/Thunderbolt 3, at that).

The 2016 MacBook Air?
The 2016 MacBook Air?


Call us Don Quixote, but we continue to tilt at a windmill we never see anyone else talk about: a refreshed Mac Pro. We have absolutely no basis for thinking this will happen except for three things: the creative pro natives are getting restless for one, and there's been enough evolution in the chips and graphics (and the aforementioned new Thunderbolt 3 using the USB-C 3.1 connector) that it seem like it's time to us. You heard it hear first, folks, and if we turn out to be correct on this we are leaving MacNN on a high note, and applying for a job at KGI Securities.

The Apple Watch 2: Electric Boogaloo

And so, we turn again to the Apple Watch 2 proponents. Having been totally, utterly, and completely wrong about it's arrival at the March Apple event, and us apparently getting nothing more than new Hermés band colors for the Watch's first anniversary, the "Apple Watch 2" is apparently now going to show up at WWDC and debut at retail in the fall. As Mike and Charles have said on The MacNN Podcast, we are skeptical of this, but at least it will be obviously true or false in the near future: while we feel sure there that a new major version of watchOS is coming later this year -- and one that grants at least a little more independence to the Watch and its apps -- there are a slew of rumors about changes to hardware as well, and if that's the case we're likely to see this at least inferred at WWDC.

Currently, the rumors say that the "Apple Watch 2" will be as much as 40 percent thinner than the present model, though the source of this pronouncement, Brian White of Drexel Hamilton -- currently on a "Chinese tech tour" or as we like to call it, "Please find me some Foxconn workers to bribe" -- does not explain what that would do to the battery life of the device (which in our experience lasts 18 hours or so with light usage). White seems to believe that the Apple Watch 2, which other rumors have claimed will have a FaceTime camera and more advanced Wi-Fi, could arrive as early as September, but various rumors have also said that apart from possibly being a bit thinner, the exterior of the Apple Watch will not be noticeably different than the present models.

A dramatically thinner Apple Watch concept
A dramatically thinner Apple Watch concept


White also said that the "iPhone 7" will begin production in July (not really very surprising, that one), and said this will help Apple return to smartphone growth in the second half of 2016 (really, Mr. White? A new iPhone will spur sales? You don't say!). "Our meeting with a tech supply chain company highlighted a rough end to 2015, with significant forecast reductions from Apple; however, forecasts have been stable since then, with 2Q:16 expected to be the trough. After a YoY sales decline in 1Q:16, our contact expects to return to growth in H2:2016," he told clients.

As for the Apple Watch, we remain skeptical: while it would be true that September would mark two years since the original announcement of the Apple Watch was made, for most buyers (who presumably picked up their device around Christmas of last year), it would seem as though Apple had refreshed the device "right after" they bought one. While a new model with significant changes would certainly boost sales in time for this coming holiday season, we can't help but think that if the device basically looks the same as the present one will not inspire a buying rush in the way that a visibly newer model would, and we continue to think that is at least another year away.

Call us biased, but we believe Apple Watch owners will want the hardware to be on a more iPad or Mac-like cycle of refreshes, but we would certainly not be surprised if some internal changes were made in the 2016 version of the Apple Watch to give it some modest improvements. That said, we think a genuine, fully-redesigned "Apple Watch 2" is still on Sir Ive's drawing board. Our colleague Sanjiv Sathiah would love to see an always-on status display, and others have made it clear they'd prefer more battery life, but these sorts of things can probably be accomplished with software alone, and we think watchOS is where Apple will continue to focus its efforts, since that's where the biggest changes can be made.

However, we're not discounting the possibility of a slightly-thinner (not 40 percent thinner) Apple Watch. Apple's engineers have been thinking about this for far longer than the Watch has been available. We imagine something beyond new bands will be needed to spice up the Apple Watch offering for Christmas this year, but we have considered another possibility: a new model that could be even more fitness-oriented, or perhaps a revamped Sport model with additional sensors; something to even more directly compete against the Fitbit devices, which are Apple's only real competition in the wearables market. Creating a Watch version that strips off most of the iPhone-dependent apps capability and just handles health and fitness stuff, at the right price, could change that market in a dramatic fashion.

But what do we "know?"
     
coffeetime
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Apr 11, 2016, 11:07 PM
 
Whether it's iPhone 6s, iPhone 6fx, iPhone 6z or iPhone 6xyz, there will always be lines waiting outside Apple Store. As for Samsung, none of their newest Galaxies attract any crowd.
     
just a poster
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Apr 12, 2016, 01:00 AM
 
Edge to edge screen in macbook pro rendering is slick.
     
   
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