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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > What is keeping the US from a triple dip recession?

What is keeping the US from a triple dip recession?
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The Godfather
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Mar 17, 2012, 06:31 PM
 
So, everything is going peachy like it is 1999 these days. Bright days ahead, no news.
Is it reduction of debt? (Foreclosures included)
The green economy?
The lowering cost of healthcare?
Switching to a frugal lifestyle?
Elimination of the credit lifestyle?
The re-opening of business credit from magically re-appearing private funds?
The dawn of war?
     
turtle777
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Mar 17, 2012, 10:03 PM
 
We have never left the recession.

Recession, defined as a shrinking GDP, is chiefly dependent on HOW GDP is calculated.

GDP calculations have been fudged in the last years by fudging inflation numbers. Inflation is deducted from GDP. If you report inflation lower than it really was, GDP will show greater increase than it really has.

By measuring inflation the way it was calculated more than 20 years ago, we would have been in a recession since 2004 and never left.



Shadowstats does exactly that, calculating CPI, GDP and unemployment how it was done until the 1980s.

-t
     
mduell
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Mar 18, 2012, 05:35 PM
 
Mostly fudged numbers, as turtle points out.

The numbers you can't fudge so easily, like net federal tax revenues FYTD, are already below last year's pace.
     
Big Mac
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Mar 19, 2012, 12:50 AM
 
So even the late 1990s tech boom period was recessionary by the older measure? That's shocking.

The important question isn't what is keeping us from another recession (assuming we got out of the last). The key question is, what happens when bloated government bureaucracies and enormous Socialist welfare wealth redistribution costs finally sink us.
( Last edited by Big Mac; Mar 19, 2012 at 01:18 AM. )

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
ebuddy
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Mar 19, 2012, 07:42 AM
 
The good news is when you calculate Leap-Year days into the Mayan calendar, the end of the world actually occurred about 13 months ago.
ebuddy
     
OldManMac
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Mar 19, 2012, 08:06 AM
 
Nothing, and the world will follow along.
Why is there always money for war, but none for education?
     
Wiskedjak
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Mar 19, 2012, 08:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by turtle777 View Post
By measuring inflation the way it was calculated more than 20 years ago, we would have been in a recession since 2004 and never left.
Looks more like it began in 2001, with only a brief period of non-recession in 2004.
     
finboy
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Mar 19, 2012, 01:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Godfather View Post
The green economy?
The lowering cost of healthcare?
Neither one of these really exists, so it can't be them. They are political fictions created to steer the sheep in a particular direction.

I'd argue that the "credit lifestyle" hasn't really changed that much either, but there has been some paydown of credit (increase in savings) at the household level. That can't hurt.

It's probably the dynamic economies in red states that are driving the national numbers right now, and the resolution of uncertainty in the housing sector (with lots left to see). Onshore oil drilling is at an all-time high. Plus, real profitability (and therefore equity) at small- to medium-sized banks is up, and that's reduced a lot of uncertainty.

The survivalist economy is going gangbusters, as are gun & ammo sales. That's probably having a tremendous impact. I don't see that doing anything but expanding until after November.
     
el chupacabra
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Mar 20, 2012, 12:02 AM
 
The US is still in recession. Even with the fudged unemployment numbers and inflation they are mediocre at best. The other day when they released the inflation numbers they conveniently left out the things that rose in price the most (such as food) in order to make it look low. So... you must be talking about the stock market which is the only thing that looks good as it approaches its all time historical high. In this case the president is working with the Fed to do whatever it takes to make the economy look good to the masses of lemmings who judge the economy by stocks. The current level of manipulation hasn't been this great before and is rivaling that of China and the most corrupt countries in the world.

In a nutshell:

1. Your tax dollars are being used to buy up toxic dept such as mortgage back securities from banks. This helps out wealthy banks and allows them to not take responsibility for their bad business decisions.

2. Low interest rates / Quantitative easing; you can bing this one it includes a lot of things and can't be explained here. Printing a bunch of money out of nothing, which is what they always do anyway, but this time it's being made ultra easy. When you print more money you can then choose who to give it to in order to protect that entity from the inflation thats going to effect the masses. Currently the stock market is believed by many to just be the first thing to really go high due to inflation. Other people such as myself believe the fed has initiated buy programs to prevent it from falling. Every time we get a bear flag or downward pattern it has failed in the past few months due to fed trying to counter the market trend and keep it impossibly parabolic. The market is also extremely light on volume which means all the smart money is out already. Most likely they (fed and institutions) are propping it up and slowly selling off their shares to the 401k'ers (the dumb money) while it's high then they will tank the market. The light volume is about the same as just before the dot com bubble burst.
     
   
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