[alex_kac]

http://news.com.com/Betting+it+all+o...?tag=nefd.lede

All of that said, I am highly confident in our decision to build all of our technology around Microsoft Windows. That has also really been borne out by conversations we've had throughout the industry. For example, at a major U.S. retailer, I was told by the head of merchandising that they expect Apple's market share to be less than 10 percent within 24 months. That's very consistent with what I think that a lot of people feel--that as this consumer opportunity moves to mass adoption, people want choice.

Now I don't necessarily believe this because I think people are looking at a moving target and expecting Apple to stay static. Sure if iTMS stayed the same for the next 24 months I can see it go down to less than 10%. But knowing Apple - they will continue to improve iTMS to keep its near monopoly on downloadable music.

Thoughts?

[Mr. Blur]

the usual apple doomsday stuff.

are they still around - i thought they've been out of business for years now?

[alex_kac]

Well no. The post isn't about "Apple doomsday". Its about the marketshare shrinking from its current dominant position to where it is for Macs againsts PCs.

I think its a valid argument and a great possibility if Apple doesn't play its cards right. But I do also think that they will play their cards right and do the right thing to keep their marketshare up.

[dtriska]

Napster? You're worried about Napster? Don't worry; you can safely ignore Napster. Consumers certainly do.

[alex_kac]

I don't take any competition for granted. Especially since Napster can be now embedded in WMP 10.

[Mr. Blur]

Originally posted by alex_kac:
Well no. The post isn't about "Apple doomsday". Its about the marketshare shrinking from its current dominant position to where it is for Macs againsts PCs.

I think its a valid argument and a great possibility if Apple doesn't play its cards right. But I do also think that they will play their cards right and do the right thing to keep their marketshare up.

i know what the article says, and i know what you are are saying...my point was just that no m,atter what apple does there are always those in the computer media that will slag it off and put the most negative slant possible (can you say dvorak)...it just gets a little tired after a while. it does not mean apple should not keep their eyes and ears open to what is happening around them though.

[bmedina]

I think the question will be: how many people will continue to buy DRM'd WMA files when they realize they can't put them on their iPod?

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally posted by bmedina:
I think the question will be: how many people will continue to buy DRM'd WMA files when they realize they can't put them on their iPod?

Quite honestly:

I think the question is more likely to be:

how many people will continue to buy iPods when they realize they can't put their purchased music on them?

It's not like this kind of thing hasn't happened before.

[alex_kac]

And I think the REAL question is - which of those two questions is really going to matter for the majority of the market

I think as long as the iPod stays the primary MP3 player out there - it will win. But people like choices in hardware. Not so much in software. You notice there is one Windows. But a thousand different PCs. There is one audio format for CDs. But a billion different CD players.

So that's my concern - that the iPod won't withstand the competition once it gets really fierce. Right now, the competition is making so many mistakes, but they are getting closer - witness the Rio Carbon.

But here is my take. The iPod became so popular primarily because of iTunes. Then of course its perpetuating itself. But iTunes is the main reason it BECAME popular, but not necessarily the main reason its going to remain at the top. iTMS is still a hundred times better than any of the other music stores - but the other ones are "good enough" in a few aspects. While they fix those aspects, it will eventually become good enough.

So saying that if Apple doesn't change a thing as of today, yes I do believe they will be at 10% in a year or two. But Apple doesn't sit on its laurels. So the next relevant question is: What should Apple do to maintain the advantage? I think that something needs to me to the iTMS and not the iPod because it needs to be something that ALL iPod owners can take advantage of or else people will start getting upset that they have to upgrade their iPods to take advantage of new features of iTMS. And its iTMS that I think will keep Apple up in the market.