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What, Still Here? The General Election Punditry and Numbers Thread (Page 11)
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subego  (op)
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Oct 9, 2016, 02:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by Paco500 View Post
Unless Hillary gets indicted, he's done. Nothing he can say or do will change that.
He's on the ropes, but Hillary's got a bit of a glass jaw. If she gets sick again, or has a truly damaging leak...
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 9, 2016, 03:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He's on the ropes, but Hillary's got a bit of a glass jaw. If she gets sick again, or has a truly damaging leak...
Oh god. I've never seen a legitimate October surprise. Two in the same
election?
     
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Oct 9, 2016, 05:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He's on the ropes, but Hillary's got a bit of a glass jaw. If she gets sick again, or has a truly damaging leak...
I don't think she can, what with the catheter and all.
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subego  (op)
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:10 PM
 
Is he on sedatives?
     
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:16 PM
 
That benedryl can pack a mean punch.
     
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:24 PM
 
DJT going full chongo and throwing everything including the kitchen sink at her.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:26 PM
 
I feel like audiences are good indicator of the polarized political environment we have. We can't even hold basic deform any more

rEdit: Decorum
( Last edited by The Final Dakar; Oct 9, 2016 at 09:38 PM. )
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:32 PM
 
Oh god he's literally heckling her. I have no idea what to expect anymore
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 9, 2016, 09:36 PM
 
And getting all up in the Coop's grille.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 9, 2016, 10:00 PM
 
So... trying to process the first act of this drama.

Isn't a threat to throw your opponent in the gulag generally considered poor form?
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 9, 2016, 10:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
So... trying to process the first act of this drama.

Isn't a threat to throw your opponent in the gulag generally considered poor form?
Not in this political environment.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:17 AM
 
Bubba must have been scoping Juanita, Paula, and Kathleen.
45/47
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:25 AM
 
Lord of the Flies?
45/47
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:39 AM
 
So, who won that?

I guess I give a slight edge to Trump. It helped most of the unhinged stuff was gotten out of the way early.

He didn't crater, so he fulfilled his victory condition.

Clinton was calm, but didn't deliver a knockout, or even pull off a good rope-a-dope, which was her victory condition.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:47 AM
 
Question: Trump has had hundreds of rallys without the sniffing being a thing. What is he doing that the debate mics are constantly picking it up? It's not relevant to the presidency but it is distracting.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 03:19 AM
 
How could anyone think Trump won that? He can't answer a DIRECT QUESTION, he goes off on a tangent, shows he's illiterate on the topics he was asked about, and acted like a goddamn bully.

Oh yeah, lies through his teeth.

He's done.

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Oct 10, 2016, 05:11 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
How could anyone think Trump won that? He can't answer a DIRECT QUESTION, he goes off on a tangent, shows he's illiterate on the topics he was asked about, and acted like a goddamn bully.

Oh yeah, lies through his teeth.

He's done.
I didn't see this debate yet, but if it's anything like the Pence/Kaine show, it's bizarre through the looking glass stuff. Pence is widely regarded as having won that debate because he blatantly, BUT CAMLY, lied about Trump again and again, while Kane had trouble containing himself in the face of such astounding falsehoods.

So demeanour, and how well one did against expectations has become far more important than substance. What a candidate says is far less important than how they say it. So we are at the point that expectations are so low for Trump that as long as he didn't dribble, wet himself, or hit anybody, he won.

My god, what have we become?
( Last edited by Paco500; Oct 10, 2016 at 05:53 AM. Reason: typo- content not changed.)
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 08:12 AM
 
Two peanuts are having a conversion. One peanut says, "I gotta vote for someone." The other peanut says, "You're nuts."

The end
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 09:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
How could anyone think Trump won that? He can't answer a DIRECT QUESTION, he goes off on a tangent, shows he's illiterate on the topics he was asked about, and acted like a goddamn bully.

Oh yeah, lies through his teeth.

He's done.
Because debates are judged on optics far more than substance.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 09:48 AM
 
Yikes! If looks could kill. Trump wanted to put them in the "family box" but the debate commission stopped him.
45/47
     
starman
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:15 PM
 
Trump is running for dictator, not president:

https://twitter.com/voxdotcom/status...379840/video/1

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subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:19 PM
 
Originally Posted by And.reg View Post
Two peanuts are having a conversion. One peanut says, "I gotta vote for someone." The other peanut says, "You're nuts."

The end
1) I'm glad you have returned.

2) Please forgive me for being a dick.

3) I'm still genuinely interested in your opinions. Have you come any closer to a decision?
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
So, who won that?

I guess I give a slight edge to Trump. It helped most of the unhinged stuff was gotten out of the way early.

He didn't crater, so he fulfilled his victory condition.

Clinton was calm, but didn't deliver a knockout, or even pull off a good rope-a-dope, which was her victory condition.
He clearly won, she looked befuddled and zoned-out several times. 70-30 Trump.
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:27 PM
 
Clinton's win percentage keeps ticking up on 538 polls-only, if slower right now, but now-cast has plateaued.

I have to wonder about the logic, though. Win percentage right now mirrors the win percentage in the tipping-point state (CO still) which is fine until you remember the whole bit about correlated states. If Clinton currently has three independent paths to 270 (the west with CO and NV, the south with NC, and the midwest with OH - plus FL which is probably correlated with at least one of the others), shouldn't her win percentage be the chance that she loses all three of those groups?
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
He clearly won, she looked befuddled and zoned-out several times. 70-30 Trump.
What analysis I have seen indicate that the debate started disastrously for Trump, but that he was even or slightly better for the later part of it. Clinton was clearly waiting for him to mess up, so she didn't land any knockout punches.
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subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
He clearly won, she looked befuddled and zoned-out several times. 70-30 Trump.
I didn't get a zoned-out feel at all, and when given the option by the director, I was sure to focus on the expressions of whoever wasn't talking.

I'd also say it was points to her for staying unruffled through the first act, which couldn't have been the easiest thing to do.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:37 PM
 
Can we agree the moderators did a good job?
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:43 PM
 
Jeff Session isn't sure grabbing genitals is sexual assault. He was AL AG
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 12:54 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Can we agree the moderators did a good job?
Eh...

Ehhhhh...

I'm not asking the following as a rhetorical defense for my tepid reaction, more to see if I was imagining things.

Did the Coop like, blow a gasket and shut down? I feel Raddatz took point for most of it.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Jeff Session isn't sure grabbing genitals is sexual assault. He was AL AG
I wanted to see what Sessions said before I responded. In doing so, I had the opportunity to re-read the Trump quote.

The (literal) jerkoff fantasy Trump had lost himself in went like this.

Starts kissing random hottie.
She's cool with it.
Then he grabs the pussy.

If I'm going to be forced to make a binary assessment, either that is describing sexual assault or it isn't, I'd be forced to say it isn't.

If he was told to stop and continued anyway, that would be sexual assault, however it's (ahem) explicitly not the scenario being discussed. These were examples of what women let him do. That they let him do it is his entire premise.


Thanks for taking me down that rabbit hole. I feel dirty now.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:18 PM
 
Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants View Post
He clearly won, she looked befuddled and zoned-out several times. 70-30 Trump.
Are you insane? He lied so much, how could he have won?

Oh, and let's not forget his emulation of Richard Nixon and his threat to jail Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/op...-in-brief.html

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The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:20 PM
 
I'm not sure I agree. Your logic implies consenting to/enjoying a kiss gives the man carte Blanche.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by starman View Post
Are you insane? He lied so much, how could he have won?

Oh, and let's not forget his emulation of Richard Nixon and his threat to jail Clinton.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/op...-in-brief.html
Don't blame me, I'm not in the minority with that opinion. Largely that just goes to show how awful Hillary was, not how great Trump is. They're both the shittiest candidates both parties have ever seen, unfortunately foisted upon us in the same election.
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:41 PM
 
Anyway, someone throw the bat-signal to summon our resident female.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
I'm not sure I agree. Your logic implies consenting to/enjoying a kiss gives the man carte Blanche.
Gives the man carte blanche until the woman says no.

Unless we're discussing someone unable to give proper consent, isn't that basically the way it works? I mean, carte blanche covers a lot of territory. What's under discussion here is specifically the "kissing to hand down the pants" transition. Is this something which cannot be attempted without explicit consent?

Have all the times that attempt was made, the woman has said no, and the man has complied, in fact been instances of sexual assault?
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 01:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Anyway, someone throw the bat-signal to summon our resident female.
While we're waiting, there are no lack of important issues.

I think the best hair awards should go to...

1) Huma
2) Jill Stein
3) Anderson
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 02:13 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Gives the man carte blanche until the woman says no.

Unless we're discussing someone unable to give proper consent, isn't that basically the way it works? I mean, carte blanche covers a lot of territory. What's under discussion here is specifically the "kissing to hand down the pants" transition. Is this something which cannot be attempted without explicit consent?

Have all the times that attempt was made, the woman has said no, and the man has complied, in fact been instances of sexual assault?


More serious post to follow if I visit on a keyboard.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 10, 2016, 02:47 PM
 
I'm only half-getting where you're going.

What's the implication in the Trump context?
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 03:41 PM
 
It's not a real response. At least for that situation. But for some reason he reminded me of it.
     
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Oct 10, 2016, 05:19 PM
 
Trump totally won the debate by side stepping every single question and never providing legitimate answers.

It is why the moderators got flustered and had to return to him several times to reiterate the original question. It wasn't that they were biased but rather that Trump was trying to evade the topics at his discretion and they were trying to do their jobs. As a result Trump got the lions share of speaking time.

However, the debate did nothing to help him in the polls because he did nothing to repair the damage from the Billy Bush tape. It may have actually made the perception of him as a sexual predator become more ingrained by being dismissive of the video, physically stalking Clinton on stage, and being so adamant to deflect the discussion to Bill.

Even with the debate he's still in free fall with no plan to correct.

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The Final Dakar
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Oct 10, 2016, 11:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Gives the man carte blanche until the woman says no.

Unless we're discussing someone unable to give proper consent, isn't that basically the way it works? I mean, carte blanche covers a lot of territory. What's under discussion here is specifically the "kissing to hand down the pants" transition. Is this something which cannot be attempted without explicit consent?

Have all the times that attempt was made, the woman has said no, and the man has complied, in fact been instances of sexual assault?
I suppose this is where it falls to how one interprets "grab them by the pussy." To me it doesn't sound like some suave transition to genital stimulation, but an overt 'snatch' (pun unintended). I might also opine that I think there's a difference between doing it in mutual concert and this aggressive manner where he seems to more 'take' what he wants until stopped. Plus there's that entire concept of affirmative consent. You could argue he's 'reading the room' when he makes his move, except "you can do anything" implies he is indifferent to their primary response.

I do wonder if there's a demographic divide on his actions here. Not in the typical sense either. I'm thinking age, money, and gender will be the big divides.

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Now I know why I thought of this:
And when you’re a star they let you do it. You can do anything…
My read is he's saying you can get anyway with anything (much like his shoot someone on 5th avenue comment). The question is whether he is alluding to his fame being an aphrodisiac or a shield that makes him immune to normal societal conventions.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 11, 2016, 06:48 AM
 
These are all fair questions.

That these questions exist as questions implies it cannot be simplified to (as the Coop did) "that's sexual assault... you understand that, right?"

Which speaks to my claim an expansion of the debate moderators' jobs isn't necessarily a push closer to truth.
( Last edited by subego; Oct 11, 2016 at 10:09 AM. Reason: words and shit)
     
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Oct 11, 2016, 10:07 AM
 
I can only hope a polling firm asks if people think it's assault.
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 11, 2016, 10:10 AM
 
Are you being serious?
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 11, 2016, 10:47 AM
 
Yes?
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 11, 2016, 10:54 AM
 
Do you think that poll would have relevance to what the actual answer is, or it would be interesting to confirm the results would match national election polls?

Or something else?
     
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Oct 11, 2016, 10:56 AM
 


This verges on brilliant, but ultimately doesn't have enough material to take it home. It was able to evoke a grin, though.
     
The Final Dakar
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Oct 11, 2016, 11:01 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Do you think that poll would have relevance to what the actual answer is, or it would be interesting to confirm the results would match national election polls?

Or something else?
Yes it would have relevance to the actual answer. It's how laws change.

I'll reiterate, in case I haven't been clear, the reason I see it as assault is the use of the word 'grab'.

And where the hell is andi?!
     
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Oct 11, 2016, 11:01 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post


This verges on brilliant, but ultimately doesn't have enough material to take it home. It was able to evoke a grin, though.
"You Dont' Send Me Flowers" would have been better.
45/47
     
subego  (op)
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Oct 11, 2016, 11:15 AM
 
Originally Posted by The Final Dakar View Post
Yes it would have relevance to the actual answer. It's how laws change.

I'll reiterate, in case I haven't been clear, the reason I see it as assault is the use of the word 'grab'.

And where the hell is andi?!
I feel this scenario has way too much baggage for people to consider it objectively.

And I'll reiterate, I argue the word "grab" is not separable from the context of "list of things women have let me do".
     
 
 
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