[Fyre4ce]

I am assisting a school in buying two Power Mac G4 machines for digital video editing. In all likelyhood, Apple will incorporate the UMA-2 chipset into its Power Mac line come MWSF in January. That means PC133 DDR memory, probably faster front side bus, and some other speed-enhancing goodies. That is a strong case for waiting a month and a half and getting faster machines.

On the other hand, Apple has some very attractive pricing on their current G4 systems, like this one I priced out today (educational site): dual G4s @ 500MHz, 256 MB RAM, 36GB Ultra160 SCSI HD, 17" Studio Display, DVD-RAM, and a RADEON card, all for $3900. Subtract the two rebates, one @$500 for the system, and another @$192 for the extra RAM, and that comes down to $3200. Very nice indeed!!

I am aware of the fact that as a general rule, the price of a system goes down over time, especially after the release of a faster system to replace it. However, the rebate, which is a hefty chunk of money (500 bucks per system), expires on January 1. So if we wait, it might be the case that the price of the system goes down $500, but the lack of the rebate negates that, AND we won't be able to custom-build it, AND we will get a hold of it a month and a half later. And then the new systems might be too expensive for what we're getting. Maybe we should buy now. Although, maybe the price of the current G4s will go WAY down, and we will have the choice between an older system for REALLY cheap, or a new UMA-2 system for a resonable price. I do not know what to expect. If someone could offer a little guidance, I'd appriciate it!!

Thanks in advance!
Fyre4ce

[This message has been edited by Fyre4ce (edited 11-29-2000).]

[Jsnuff1]

usuall rule is buy one when you need one, but because mwsf is so close you might want to think about waiting for the new systems, i doubt that the price for the new g4 will be over 4000 for the high end comps anyway

[suhail]

Keep in mind, when the new Macs come out, you may not receive yours as soon as you'd hoped. Apple has a reputation for delivering late.

I am facing a similar dilemma. The current PMs are really nice and the rebates attractive, but if I can really get UMA-2 in January (say Feb/March with the usual delays), I think it's probably worth waiting. I limp my machines along for as long as I possibly can, and since I've been able to go this far with my upgraded PowerComputing machine, why not a few more months to get the UMA-2 benefits?

But I'm not sure that the UMA-2 motherboards work with OS 9.x. I haven't been able to find anything on the web suggesting that UMA-2 will work with 9 (they may only work with OS X (running 9 in Classic, but not as a dual-boot machine)); after all, most of the rumors sites are still working off a schedule that assumed OS X would be shipping by January 2001. The hardware side of Apple may be ahead of the software side, but hardware originally slated for OS X may not work without it.

So I think the speed-bumped PowerMacs at MWSF might be faster versions of the current PMs, not entirely new, UMA-2 based machines. I hope I'm wrong, though.

Anyone heard anything different?

[Keda]

I guess it boils down to how badly you need a new Mac. I have been holding out for a G4 PowerBook for a while. Since most indicators point to this machine finally appearing at MWSF next month, Ill wait. But I have to admit that the current discounts are very attractive.

At work, I use a G4/500, it was ordered the wek b4 the dual were released. If the power-hungry admin assitant had been willing to listen to me, we would have waited a few days and gotten more bang for our bucks-oh well, wasnt my $$.

Since its so close to expo time, Id say wait...if you can.

I may be wrong, but I suspect that the 500$ rebate will not apply to purchases made at the Apple Store for Education. The RAM rebate specifies that it is valid at the Apple Store for Education, whereas the the 500$ rebate says that educational promotions "supersede the offer".

Maybe this will make the decision to wait easier.

Ed

hey where does it say that apple is putting out new G4 or G5 Macs? The only thing I've seen rumored is a G4 powerbook. Nothing about G4's or G5's or even ATA 100 or a faster FSB or even USB 2.0. Can someone direct me to a rumor site that has the juice on this. I was just about to order a G4 500MP with an ATI Radeon card and a dvd Rom Drive, and minimum RAM and HD. The price of this after the RAM rebate and the $500 rebate is $2035. So if someone can prove to me that Motorola is finally getting off their butts and they stop putting so much effort on their damn pagers and cell phones, I'll believe you. I know that there is talks of a G4 enhanced or + but When has motorola ever delivered the goods on time. IBM produces 1ghz G4 processors but cant sell them because it would be bad business for Motorola and Motorola wont let them sell it. Did you know that there are G3's faster than 1ghz from IBM, but apple wont use them because they dont want the G3's to out shine their G4's. In my oppinion they should have kept pumping out the G3's at faster clock rates until Motorola got the bugs out of the G4's or improved the design with the G4 +.

[sblunden]

in the case of buying for a school i would wait till after MacWorld, because of Christmas Break. School isn't even in session for more the time you would have to wait for the new machine, Assuming product will ship imidately after MacWorld which is often not the case.
For individuals if the current machines do everything you need go ahead and purchase it. I just bought a PowerBook with a savings of over $700. I can not imagine anything new that would be worth $700, plus i can afford it.

spencer

Hello, I'm a filmmaker and cinematographer. I own a G4 SP 400 MHz.

For the NLE system based on DV, you don't need high-end SCSI at all. MP is a big plus, but realtime DV card would worth more. (It's postponed to next spring. $1000) Also, just a couple of days ago, Sonnet announced the new ATA RAID PCI card. ($200) If you add two IBM Deskstar 75 GXP 75 GB ($375 each), you'll get 140 GB of formatted media drive, that can run even D1. (uncompressed SD) Even a single IBM 75 GB drive can run D1, though it's tight. So, I think that Apple's SCSI configuration is a kind of waste.

UMA-2 is attractive. Also there is no doubt that they will raise up the clock speed of G4 a little, if not tremendous. Then, the question is, how much the rendering speed difference will be. If it would not more than 40 %, I would not bother. The current dual G4 is still suffering with "out of sync problem" in Final Cut Pro.

The other thing that I don't think the best deal is the monitor. Apple monitors are essentially the Mitsubishi Diamondtrons. They cover it with fancy plastic and charge a lot more. Not a good deal. 17 inch is too small, too. So, here's the cost-optimized system for NLE, NOW! (Only hardware)


G4 400 MHz ($1200)
(Radeon is overkill. The current ATI 128 Pro is more than enough for SD NLE.)

IBM Deskstar 75 GXP 75 GB x 3 ($380 x 3 = $1140)

256 MB PC100 RAM module ($160)
(FCP is expected to be given 150 MB, with VM off.)

Sonnet ATA RAID PCI card ($200)

Hitachi CM 715 19 inch ($300) or one more (x2 = $600)
(The best 19 inch is $590, Mitsubishi 900U. I use Hitachi CM776, that is a little more than $400 and excellent quality. Never buy cheap 17 inches. They are horrible and not so cheaper.)

RTMac Realtime DV card ($1000), next spring. Will provide both second monitor output and NTSC output.

Then, it will be $3000 (minimum) to $4300 (with second monitor + RTMac).

At $3000 configuration, you will get 9+ hours of work space. With the 36 GB space, you cannot squeeze out more than around 30 GB for media, that is merely 2 + hours of media. It is more important to reserve enough working space in educational institutions, because it will be shared. Your students shouldn't be expected to finish their 10 ~ 30 minute project only in several hours. If it is required to back up their working material and clear up the space at the end of the every turn, it will take out whole lot of usable time of the system. (Practically, impossible.) The above internal 140 GB RAID at $1000 is unbelievably cheap solution comparing to common external RAID, and performs the same.

At $4300 configuration (It will be completed next spring.), it will be a commercial strength NLE suite. Basic (most commonly used) DV rendering will be done in realtime, that is faster than any other faster main processor based rendering. (This will speed up editing, so more students can share one system.) Also two monitors are very essential for most NLE or graphic applications, except iMovie 2;-) I love iMovie. iMovie is more than a consumer toy! I would recommend it for novice filmmakers, because learning FCP's full featured interface will disturb learning more important thing: The grammar of the film language. There's no problem in mixing iMovie and FCP on one system.

If the institution are not short of money, it's not a bad idea to wait for the UMA-2. Still, the extra hard disk space is mandatory and RTMac + extra monitor is very desirable plus. If you want to know where I bought above system at above price, eMail me.

[email protected]

Hope this will be a little help...

PS: I missed one essential thing. For each system, you need to get a pair of audio monitor speakers that are not so horrible quality as most computer speakers. The best bet is Roland self-powered mini monitors. They are very cheap, starting from $90 a pair. You won't be able to find it from computer stores. Check out music shops, like Guitar Center.

One more tip: Now, Avid is giving out ProTools 5.0.1 as a little limited edition. Still, it is perfectly enough for most student filmmakers. It will provide a good chance for students to get used to ProTools, that is the industry standard.

No hardware required. It's just free! No strings! Don't forget to grab the documentation installer, too. I guess that they did it because Cubase is rapidly eating up the low to mid budget market. Competition is a good thing!

[normang]

I also wonder where the wishful thinking is coming from for announcements of new Mac hardware at Macworld? The rumor sites have been strangely quiet, including Appleinsider here. While there has been discussion for months of the new UMA-2 motherboards, faster G4's, however unless Apple has been super successful in shuttting up the troops, I wouldn't hold my breath for new hardware at Macworld,

Even if there is by some miracle and new hardware does Appear at Macworld, the prices of existing hardware will probably be equal to or a little more than with the current rebates.

Additionally, If Apple holds true to its previous records, it will be weeks before you get one, with the possible exception of the first few hundred people that get the lucky few Apple makes or can make out the starting gate. Heaven forbid they actually have an inventory to meet opening demand.

I am also pondering a DP500 at the current rebates and have considered the future, and until its more clear, or someone really knows something definative, I don't think I'll be holding off unless something pops up in the next couple weeks to give one a solid reason to hold off. And even if one does hold off, your going to pay a premium price for a new 600 or 700 and will that be a dual processor or a single? I'm betting singles because of limited yields. And if their doubles, that if I had to guess will limit the initial availability of those models and you'll be waiting weeks etc etc..

Love Apple, Love my Mac, just wish they could get faster hardware and have it ready to go when they announce it.

Norm

[Fyre4ce]

Wow! Thanks a LOT, Edddddd! I did read the fine print on the Power Mac rebate, which does in fact say that educational pricing does "supersede" the offer. I guess that means that the rebate does not apply. While that might make my choice a little easier I do not like my options as much.

*sigh*
Fyre4ce

There's something else you may want to consider. Because of the slowing economy Apple may have a slow Holiday season. The computer that you want may become cheaper by January if Apple has to clear excess inventory to make way for new products. I've included an article from CNET that discusses this point.

Inventory glut foreshadows sales woes for Compaq, Apple
By Joe Wilcox
Staff Writer, CNET News.com
November 30, 2000, 2:00 p.m. PT
URL: http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1006-200-3939155.html

Gateway shares were pounded Thursday after the company said consumer PC sales came in lower than expected, but analysts warn things could get just as bad, or worse, for Apple Computer and Compaq Computer.

Both Apple and Compaq face a potential consumer PC sales crisis because of slowing sales, growing inventories and a looming first-quarter price war. While no PC company
will remain unscathed by the triple whammy, these two appear to be particularly exposed.

Market researcher ARS reports Apple is sitting on 11 weeks of inventory and Compaq on 10.5 weeks, well above the industry average. Hewlett-Packard sells to the same market but apparently has done better at keeping its inventory under control. Generally, companies seek to keep inventory at four weeks or below.

PC companies selling through dealers typically "build up some extra inventory in anticipation of holiday sales," ARS analyst Matt Sargent said. "But levels are unusually high."

Mike Winkler, Compaq's executive vice president of global business units, balked at the reported inventory levels. Because about 95 percent of consumer product goes direct to retailers such as Best Buy and Circuit City, Winkler said he couldn't imagine where these inventory reports were coming from.

"This is the big Christmas season�and you've got to have enough inventory out there," Winker said. "There is nothing abnormal whatsoever about the inventory levels that are out there."

Apple would not comment on sales or the inventory situation.

An inventory buildup often has the same lingering effect on the industry as a three-car pileup does on commute traffic. Typically, companies slash prices to clear computers out of stores and warehouses, which saps profit margins for a quarter or two. But after the excess computers vanish, the next problem comes up: Sales dip in subsequent quarters because many consumers bought PCs at fire sale prices.

The last time Compaq saw a buildup close to this size--about 12 weeks of inventory in early 1998--it took nearly three quarters of price cuts to clear out the backlog. In the meantime, Compaq's aggressive clearance techniques reverberated to other major PC companies, some of which quickly found themselves stuck with eight weeks of inventory.

The same sort of ripple effect is looming now, but it could be even worse. During its last glut of PCs, the company basked in a sunny economic light while many consumers were just discovering the Internet. Now, well over half the homes in the United States already have a PC, and everyone is worried about the economy.

Consumer PC sales plummeted nearly 25 percent the week before Thanksgiving, according to PC Data, making for a hostile sales climate just when computer makers were counting on the holidays. Gateway on Wednesday reported that sales during the Thanksgiving weekend--usually the biggest shopping period of the year--were down 30 percent compared with the same period last year.

Between the two, Compaq's situation appears to be better than Apple's. The inventory crisis of 1998 hit Compaq hard, but the company has since broadened its product portfolio, with about 55 percent of revenue now coming from high-margin servers and related products.

Apple, by contrast, started the quarter with excess inventory on dealers' shelves--nearly eight weeks--and relies heavily on the consumer market, particularly during the holidays.

"Apple is certainly more exposed," Technology Business Research analyst Tim Deal said. "Apple came into this quarter with a lot of excess inventory to clear, product lines not really priced for the consumer market, and weakened sales across the board in the consumer space."

PC backlog
In June, the industry average at retail, which includes catalog sales, was 4.7 weeks of inventory, rising slightly in July before reaching a September low of 3.9 weeks during one of the three strongest sales months of the year, according to ARS. But in October--when NPD Intelect reported retail sales plunging 18 percent year over year--inventory levels swelled to 7.4 weeks, according to ARS.

Apple and Compaq saw huge jumps from September to October: 5.7 weeks to 11 weeks for Apple and 4.5 weeks to 10.5 weeks for Compaq. By comparison, HP rose a more modest 3.5 weeks to 5.6 weeks during the same period, according to ARS.

Analysts see Compaq and Apple's levels as abnormally high, particularly with retail sales dropping 25 percent or more as compared with 1999.

"You don't want a lot of inventory when sales are slowing," IDC analyst Roger Kay said. "Being well above the inventory average when there's week after week of year-on-year sales shortfalls is heading for the cliff."

Sargent agreed. "That's very, very bad for Apple and for Compaq with that much inventory going into a month that everyone sees as really weak," he said.

Apple's blight
Again, Apple's situation is more desperate, analysts say. NPD Intelect has Apple's sales down 37.8 percent between September and October year over year, following an increase of 35.5 percent between August and September.

Sources close to dealers and distributors report little change in Apple's inventory levels, which dipped slightly to 68,500 units in October from 67,800 units in September. Both months were up from about 41,000 units in August.

Like Compaq, Gateway and other companies selling consumer PCs, Apple saw deep declines right before the holidays, when sales traditionally begin to pick up. For the week starting Nov. 5, Apple sales plummeted 31.2 percent in units and dropped 26.7 percent in dollars compared with the same period a year earlier, according to PC Data. For the week of Nov. 12, Apple�s retail sales declined 29.3 percent in units and 28.1 percent in dollars.

Unless holiday sales pick up dramatically, Apple could be forced to delay releasing new products, analysts say.

"Apple has a tendency to release products with some major event," such as the Macworld trade show in January, Deal said.

But with inventory building, Apple could get caught in a "vicious downward spiral," he added. "Apple may instead of releasing new products, preview new products with a later release date."

Price war
Much depends on whether holidays sales pick up.

Winkler would not offer details of Compaq's post-Thanksgiving week sales, but he said there is "certainly no cause for alarm."

But John Todd, Gateway's chief financial officer, said Wednesday that the first quarter of 2001 "will be an aggressive price war."

NPD analyst George Meier also noted a traditional steep sales decline between September and October. Retail sales dropped 20 percent between the two months in 1998, 29 percent in 1999 and 35 percent this year.

"October's always has done poorly next to September, but it's getting...worse," Meier said.

It's November and slow sales over the Thanksgiving holiday that are giving retailers and analysts the jitters. They warn of a brutal price war as PC makers cut costs to clear out clogged inventories.

"Inventory is the issue, but also because of the severe irrational price-cutting that's going on," said Robertson Stephens analyst Eric Rothdeutsch. "Gateway called it irrational price cutting, and I expect more irrational behavior through this quarter."

Compaq and Sony fired the first volley on Sept. 19, when they dramatically cut consumer notebook prices.

For now, PC makers and retailers must grapple with potentially slow holiday sales, which could stretch out into the first or second quarter because of a slowing economy.

Emachines chief executive Stephen Dukker sees an economic slowdown that will effect all consumer buying, not just PCs.

"The main driver of the slump is that we are in the midst of the 'soft landing' that the Federal Reserve board was looking for when they raised interest rates and tightened the economy six consecutive times," he said.

News.com's Ian Fried contributed to this report.

[Gregory]

MacOwner - link to the article url Cnet Article is sufficient, so there isn't the question of violating reprint permission etc. that such sites state. I'd think quoting part of the article is allowed as acceptable use.

Thanks.

[This message has been edited by Gregory (edited 12-03-2000).]

[Kryton]

If we were talking about a new revision of the current Mac line I might consider buying if put under pressure by higher management. But in this case we're talking about a holiday period and I hope to God that we're going to see a move to a new architecture across the 'high-end' board with none of last year's 'Yikes' fiascos. Whatever happens at SF you should still be able to find good deals after Apple's January deadline.

That's not to say that the current lineup is bad. I'm very happy with my G4. it's just that Apple has promised a solution to the processor slack and has to do something about it NOW or run the risk of three successive poor quarters. The last one, 'less than expected' this one, 'a disaster' and possibly the next quarter too.

People are logically holding back on purchases and this will create a demand that Apple won't be able to satisfy. You're lucky because you live in America and you'll be among the first to get served. Where I live I'll be lucky to see the new machines by March.

The pent up demand problem is one that Apple creates all on its own. It prefers this to a change in its business model. Its current model is insufficient but it won't go down the upgrade or processor scaling path (something that is not understandable in a G4 age).

A word of warning however. Revision A models of all Apple hardware comes with kinks. Ideally a revision B is optimal, but unfortunately you don't appear to be in a situation where you have time on your side. The current iMac line is definitely off-limits from its bottom end right up to the SEs. These machines are about a year behind the times.

I too have been waiting for the new Macs. I have been all over the web looking for information. The information that I have gathered points to a smaller chip, a 64bit "G5", introduced at 2.0 Ghz to compete directly with the pentium 4 in clock speed. Remember, the pentium 4 has a bus speed of 400mhz, while it's respective chip speed is 1.4 to 1.5Ghz. I imagine that apple will have to introduce a considerably faster motherboard. Supposedly this will be a close raced processor speed war.
Meanwhile the G4, in it's developement, has been frustrating slow. Unable to get it run faster than 750mhz tops, and unable to get it down to Powerbook levels of power consumption will probably mean that it won't be in a Powerbook. Meaning, if the G4 even shows up at the show it's performance increase will be modest (600 to 660mhz).
The G6 was meant to replace the G4. The G4 was suppose to hold it own until the arrival of the G6, unfortunaly with all the developement and availability disasters (not to mention resorces) this has not happened.
The G5 was originally designed to replace the G3 in it's position of the Apple line. But it now looks as if it might be the only choice for Apple, to fill in the gaps left by the G4's setback. Until the arrival of the G6.
The only thing I have found on the Web about a G6 is IBM's new mainframe server. A huge giant of a machine, capable of handling 50,000 clients. At the heart of this machine is a processor called the G6. This chip has two onboard caches of 16 MB each. The chip has an amazing 1.4 billion transistors on it, running at 650Mhz. Could this be the G6 in developement?


Sincerely,

J.B. Morrell

The IBM G5 & G6 are a series of mainframe computers, not power pc chips. They are never meant to be used for personal computers. Did you see how much they cost? They would never be able to bring the price down enough. They are also huge and use an absurd amound of power = generates tons of heat.

I am a regular reader of appleinsider.com message boards. On there, there was this person named Dorsal who suposedly had the new prototypes that will be released in Jan. He works for a hardware distributor that also tests prototype systems. If he is to be believed, expect UMA 1.5 ( hybrid 1.0 and 2.0 ) G4s at 733 to 800 Mhz. His story sounds good but many on those boards are good at making stuff up too. Check out the tread here: http://forums.appleinsider.com/ubb/F...ML/005913.html . It is a very long thread. Try to read to the end to see all the speculation.

BTW, the rebates definately don't apply to education purchases because they lowered the prices on the processors instead. For example, if you BTO a 400 machine and upgrade to dual 500s, it only cost an additional ~$450. The retail store costs about $900 for this. So the rebate is already built in. This makes a 400 mhz machine upgraded to dual 500 w/ radeon cost only $2050 ( no modem ). I have also been debating whether to buy now or not. I decided to wait.

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THE Master has spoken