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2022 Midterm elections (USA)
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reader50
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Nov 14, 2022, 03:19 PM
 
It's almost a week later, and we still don't know all the important answers.

• Senate: Dems retain control, at 50 - 49, with one seat in Georgia to be decided in a runoff on December 6.

• House of Representatives: unknown outcome. Reps lead with 212 - 204, but you need 218 for a majority. 19 races undecided still.

• State Governors: Reps lead with 25 - 23, with 2 states not yet called.

• Ballot Propositions: Abortion measures won (either protecting rights, or defeating attacks), Marijuana legalization measures were mixed.

• Secretaries of State (control elections in states): Trump's election deniers generally lost.

Pollsters say Dems overperformed across the board, and this counts as a disaster for Reps. They should have cleaned up. As it is, it's not even clear if Reps will win the House. I expect Dems to win a majority of the remaining races, so the final tally is going to be very close.
     
subego
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Nov 14, 2022, 03:39 PM
 
I was certainly expecting the Dems to get their shit pushed in.

They’ve done well for three-in-a-row. That’s not normal.
     
Laminar
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Nov 14, 2022, 04:52 PM
 
I was pretty sick of the abortion messaging but it must have worked in other places (not in Iowa). And without Trump's voice in the forefront, maybe those that he has energized in 2016 and 2018 are going to feeling apathetic about government and didn't bother to go out and vote.
     
subego
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Nov 14, 2022, 04:57 PM
 
Perhaps a dumb question, but sick of whose abortion messaging?
     
andi*pandi
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Nov 14, 2022, 07:13 PM
 
Florida and Texas.

Otherwise yes, pleasantly surprised given all the hyperbole about the red wave.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 15, 2022, 03:45 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Perhaps a dumb question, but sick of whose abortion messaging?
Plenty of states (including e. g. red states like Kentucky) had ballot measures on abortion. The range was relatively wide, but measures with abortion restrictions were defeated. In those red states Republicans were rallying for passing abortion restrictions.
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Spheric Harlot
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Nov 15, 2022, 05:39 AM
 
One thing that sort of gets lost in all the celebration is that about half of all voters actually voted for a party that very, very recently endorsed outright fascism and the abolition of parliamentary democracy.

Having only barely eked out of that is pretty terrifying.
     
Laminar
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Nov 15, 2022, 09:44 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Perhaps a dumb question, but sick of whose abortion messaging?
Everyone's. Democrats were yelling about rape, incest, and death of the mother, Republicans were showing commercials of babies crying and talking about how Cindy Axne wants to murder them.

Abortion is a wedge issue selected by Republican strategists in the '70s to activate Evangelicals to replace the fact that they could no longer get votes from outright racism.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/8274866/

https://www.politico.com/news/magazi...1970s-00031480

It's frustrating that it's so successful in undermining the conversation about other issues that actually affect the wellbeing of babies, women, and citizens in general.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 15, 2022, 11:07 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Everyone's. Democrats were yelling about rape, incest, and death of the mother, Republicans were showing commercials of babies crying and talking about how Cindy Axne wants to murder them.
Huh. We didn’t get any such ads from democrats. They were all along the lines of “protecting women’s rights” and other such soft references to abortion. Nothing outright about rape, incest, etc.

Now, the republicans, on the other hand, yeah. Baby murderers running amok, etc.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 16, 2022, 02:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Everyone's. Democrats were yelling about rape, incest, and death of the mother, Republicans were showing commercials of babies crying and talking about how Cindy Axne wants to murder them.
I do not live in the US and certainly live in my own bubble. But my perception was that Democrats “yelling” was just after the Dobbs decision when many states' trigger laws went into effect. I remember the case of the pregnant 10-year-old from Ohio who had to go to Indiana to get an abortion. Some conservatives initially refused to believe this was a real case.

Did you get a lot of shouty emails, commercials and posters from Democrats?
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Abortion is a wedge issue selected by Republican strategists in the '70s to activate Evangelicals to replace the fact that they could no longer get votes from outright racism.
Yes, and I guess they found out that after they got their wish, it is now a wedge issue for Democrats and Independents. Going by the ballot measures, abortion rights have majorities even in many red states.
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
It's frustrating that it's so successful in undermining the conversation about other issues that actually affect the wellbeing of babies, women, and citizens in general.
This was always the biggest indicator to me this was only a tactic to increase turnout amongst a few voter blocs: a lot of the states with the most draconian anti-abortion measures also have the highest infant and mother mortality rates, way above OECD average. Pro-life activist were rarely for pro-family policies such as paid family leave and addressing the reasons why many women want to get abortions. For most activists, it seems sympathy and empathy ended with birth.
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Laminar
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Nov 16, 2022, 10:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Did you get a lot of shouty emails, commercials and posters from Democrats?
A couple versions of this were on repeat on YouTube.

https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/...-sept-14-2022/

Pumped up version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DbNymJupeM
     
Brien
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Nov 16, 2022, 06:31 PM
 
We got a commercial with MAX VOLUME SIREN. It was great.
     
subego
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Nov 16, 2022, 07:00 PM
 
I don’t have cable or listen to terrestrial radio, so for me it was yet another blissfully ad-free election cycle.
     
reader50  (op)
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Nov 16, 2022, 07:23 PM
 
I have a VPN the tends to geolocate to Florida. Or maybe Ohio - I got tons of ads for candidates in Ohio, and contractor services in Florida.

My Ohio Rep ads tended to be non-specific. No mention of abortion at all. Emphasis on "American Values" or protecting families, all without details. Plus complaints of reckless spending by Dem opponents (also without details). Candidates were mentioned by name. My Ohio political ads generally did not mention party - you had to infer from the subject matter, or look up the names.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 17, 2022, 07:13 AM
 
Republican control of the House was made official yesterday. Leaders have already pledged multiple investigations into Biden’s administration and policies. Anyone think there’ll be a Hunter investigation? Attacks on trans people, and the LGBTQ community in general, seem assured. I know the extreme wackjobs are not fans of our support for Ukraine, so there might be attempts to close the funding there.

It’s gonna be a fun couple of years.
     
Laminar
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Nov 17, 2022, 09:12 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I don’t have cable or listen to terrestrial radio, so for me it was yet another blissfully ad-free election cycle.
Every ad I saw was on YouTube or Hulu.
     
subego
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Nov 17, 2022, 09:28 AM
 
Interesting.

YouTube ads make me fixate on the skip button, so those don’t usually register. If there’s no skip option, I usually decide I’m not interested enough and back out. I feel the same about cookie warnings which demand acceptance… and paywalls.

I don’t do a lot of streaming, but my dad does. I’m trying to get him on Hulu, but for the moment he’s just Netflix and Prime, with which we only get in-house ads.
     
Laminar
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Nov 17, 2022, 01:37 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Interesting.

YouTube ads make me fixate on the skip button, so those don’t usually register. If there’s no skip option, I usually decide I’m not interested enough and back out. I feel the same about cookie warnings which demand acceptance… and paywalls.
Some of the abortion ads were only 5 seconds long. We had to have the "here's what abortion means and this is how we feel about it" with my 9 yo just because we were trying to watch fail videos.

I don’t do a lot of streaming, but my dad does. I’m trying to get him on Hulu, but for the moment he’s just Netflix and Prime, with which we only get in-house ads.
We had the Hulu "no ad" version (now with some ads!), but the new Verizon plan we switched to included the D+/Hulu bundle but it's the ad-supported version, so we have ads.
     
subego
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Nov 17, 2022, 01:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
watch fail videos.
A man of refined taste I see.

What’s his favorite flavor of woops?
     
reader50  (op)
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Nov 17, 2022, 02:55 PM
 
For me, it's Russian car crash videos. Everyone should be good at something. They're good at subsidizing car sales. Also occasional impromptu wrestling matches, rare baseball bat confrontations, and very rarely firearms. I've even picked up a couple Russian words, due to the high repetition.
     
Laminar
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Nov 17, 2022, 06:12 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
A man of refined taste I see.

What’s his favorite flavor of woops?
FailArmy is good, MrMrMike1337 seems to do a lot of...developing country fails, the kind where the people in the video can't come after you for copyright infringement. We like WIN-compilation, and PuVideo's Like a Boss videos. More recently we've been watching NBA highlights, dunks, buzzer-beaters....Golden Hoops is one we keep seeing.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 17, 2022, 09:20 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Some of the abortion ads were only 5 seconds long. We had to have the "here's what abortion means and this is how we feel about it" with my 9 yo just because we were trying to watch fail videos.
<offtopic>
Is it just me or has Youtube dialed up the amount of ads to 11 in the past 1.5–2 years?

It has gotten super annoying and gotten to the point where I sometimes close video tabs, just because I don't want to divert my attention back and wait until the skip button appears — or doesn't. Youtube has definitely jumped the shark for me, akin to Facebook forcing its algorithmic timeline on me or Google inserting more and more ads into its search results.
</offtopic>
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OreoCookie
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Nov 17, 2022, 09:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
A couple versions of this were on repeat on YouTube.

https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/...-sept-14-2022/

Pumped up version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5DbNymJupeM
Those videos are definitely annoying and can be grating. They are meant to make you upset and amp up your anger. Those are not really the emotions I am looking for, especially when I want to chill with my kids. I guess it is too tempting to also go low when Republicans do.

PS Lately I have been getting a lot of Tinder and Tinder clone ads on Youtube. WTF is Youtube thinking? Sometimes I really doubt how “smart” ad algorithms really are. Although the worst is Amazon, e. g. I buy a harddrive and after I have received a new harddrive, I get tons of ads for — harddrives?!?? I just bought one, and it isn't as if I have a 60-drive server chassis at home. Ugh.
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Laminar
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Nov 18, 2022, 09:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
<offtopic>
Is it just me or has Youtube dialed up the amount of ads to 11 in the past 1.5–2 years?
It's that story about putting the frog in water and slowly turning up the heat so they don't notice. I watched a 37 minute Hoonigan video this week that had 6-7 ad breaks in it. The first one was at 1:50 - not even past the intro and they were into the ad breaks. A normal 30 minute show on TV only has 3-4 ad breaks, 6-7 is ridiculous.

Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
PS Lately I have been getting a lot of Tinder and Tinder clone ads on Youtube. WTF is Youtube thinking? Sometimes I really doubt how “smart” ad algorithms really are.
You can tinker with your YouTube ad preferences a little bit. You can add or remove topics for ads, and you can block "sensitive" content like gambling, alcohol, dating, and weight loss.

https://myadcenter.google.com

Click "Customize Ads" and then the "Sensitive" tab. You should be able to disable dating ads.
     
subego
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Nov 18, 2022, 11:29 AM
 
I feel the gambit is to get you to pay for YouTube Premium.
     
Laminar
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Nov 18, 2022, 01:13 PM
 
The difference between normal Hulu and no-ad Hulu is only $7/month. $12/month to Amazon gets me all of Prime video, the (obnoxiously shrinking) Amazon music library, and Prime shipping. $12/month just to get rid of ads on YouTube seems high in comparison.
     
reader50  (op)
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Nov 18, 2022, 02:10 PM
 
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
I watched a 37 minute Hoonigan video this week that had 6-7 ad breaks in it. The first one was at 1:50 - not even past the intro and they were into the ad breaks. A normal 30 minute show on TV only has 3-4 ad breaks, 6-7 is ridiculous.
The YT ad counts vary by channel. I'm not sure if the channel owner has any say, or if it's all YT algorithms. But I've gotten hammered on a few channels, and gave up watching them. Other channels have far less.

You can get an ad almost immediately on most channels if you start playback after an extended pause. ie - YT is open. Answer a phone call, or bathroom break. Click play again - ad within a minute. YT treats is as a new session.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 18, 2022, 08:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by reader50 View Post
You can get an ad almost immediately on most channels if you start playback after an extended pause. ie - YT is open. Answer a phone call, or bathroom break. Click play again - ad within a minute. YT treats is as a new session.
My experience with pausing is mixed: sometimes it would restart the ad counter and I’d have to watch 1–2 new ads.

There is a native player extension for Safari, which used to suppress ads as well, they were not compatible. Youtube meanwhile fixed this “bug”. Bummer.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I feel the gambit is to get you to pay for YouTube Premium.
That’s for sure. Somehow me thinks that pissing off people isn’t going to do that. All the purported extra value they offer feels like gimped functionality (e. g. when using the native Youtube app on my iPad, I cannot put the video in the pip player), not that I get more functionality.
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
It's that story about putting the frog in water and slowly turning up the heat so they don't notice. I watched a 37 minute Hoonigan video this week that had 6-7 ad breaks in it. The first one was at 1:50 - not even past the intro and they were into the ad breaks. A normal 30 minute show on TV only has 3-4 ad breaks, 6-7 is ridiculous.
The ad insertion algorithm tries to be smart and insert ads at chapter marks and around the time of big transitions. It usually works with videos that have chapter markers. But the real issue is the amount. It used to be 1 pre roll ad, then 2, then a few ads mixed in. The horrible thing is that they take me out, and instead of relaxing, I’ll have to turn my attention to my device and wait for the skip button.
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
You can tinker with your YouTube ad preferences a little bit. You can add or remove topics for ads, and you can block "sensitive" content like gambling, alcohol, dating, and weight loss.
That’s tricky, I’m not logged in on most of my devices — on purpose. Good to know I can manage my preferences, but it is sad that I have to tell them to block certain ads. I’m not opposed to dating apps at all, I find them infinitely less objectionable than gambling or weight loss ads, it is just that Youtube should know I’m a middle-aged married man with a family. Isn’t that the point of all the big players knowing “the customer’s journey” (that’s the euphemism used here in Japan for spying the living crap out of people).
Originally Posted by Laminar View Post
Click "Customize Ads" and then the "Sensitive" tab. You should be able to disable dating ads.
Thanks!
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subego
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Nov 18, 2022, 08:24 PM
 
Phun phact: as far as I’m aware, YouTube embeds on the ‘NN don’t have ads, though I haven’t extensively tested it.
( Last edited by subego; Nov 19, 2022 at 05:45 PM. )
     
subego
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Nov 18, 2022, 08:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Isn’t that the point of all the big players knowing “the customer’s journey” (that’s the euphemism used here in Japan for spying the living crap out of people).
To be fair, I’d expect that to work better if you were logged in.
     
subego
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Nov 19, 2022, 11:09 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
(e. g. when using the native Youtube app on my iPad, I cannot put the video in the pip player)
Down arrow on the top left puts it in PIP.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 19, 2022, 06:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Down arrow on the top left puts it in PIP.
But only within the app, and I cannot switch to e. g. Safari and browse while continuing to watch a video. AFAIK this is on purpose and the OS-level PIP is only enabled when you pay for it.
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subego
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Nov 20, 2022, 12:21 AM
 
Glitch then?

Works for me. I’m unpaid.

     
OreoCookie
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Nov 20, 2022, 12:42 AM
 
Regarding PIP, I was talking about the iPad OS app, not the website.

According to the Help of the Youtube app, PIP functionality requires a Premium membership. Ditto for video download and I believe a video queue/playlist.
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subego
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Nov 20, 2022, 12:45 AM
 
That’s my iPad, with a PIP from the YouTube app.

Or am I totally lost?


Edit: I only picked the forum because it was one of the less incriminating tabs I had open. The play was initiated in the YouTube app, put it in PIP, and then I switched to Safari.
( Last edited by subego; Nov 20, 2022 at 02:00 AM. )
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 22, 2022, 04:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
That’s my iPad, with a PIP from the YouTube app.

Or am I totally lost?
Are you sure you don't have a paid Youtube account? Here's what Youtube's help in its iPad OS app says:


(I searched for PIP and was served this page as the #1 result.)

Edit: I have googled, and I found this article claiming it is a feature for free users. However, I checked my Youtube settings, which are conveniently not in the Settings app (ugh!), and I have no PiP toggle.
( Last edited by Thorzdad; Nov 22, 2022 at 09:04 AM. )
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subego
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Nov 22, 2022, 10:37 AM
 
It’s beginning to look like it’s only free in the US, because we are God’s chosen.
     
Spheric Harlot
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Nov 22, 2022, 12:29 PM
 
https://support.google.com/youtube/a...Platform%3DiOS

Note: If you’re outside of the US, you’ll need a YouTube Premium membership to use PiP with any content on YouTube.
     
subego
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Nov 22, 2022, 12:32 PM
 
It’s not like I even use it. I wish I could gift you mine.
     
reader50  (op)
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Nov 22, 2022, 05:15 PM
 
Perhaps a VPN would help. Especially if you already subscribe to one for your desktop/laptop. They usually allow a bunch of logins. The logins can be on different servers, in different countries.
     
OreoCookie
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Nov 22, 2022, 09:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
It’s beginning to look like it’s only free in the US, because we are God’s chosen.
OMGWTF, this is so stupid.
And I can imagine the confusion on your end: what do you mean, it doesn’t work? This really makes me resent Youtube even more. Rational or (more likely) not, I’m more against paying Youtube anything.
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Nov 23, 2022, 11:11 PM
 
Update on Youtube's ad stupidity: just now I got an ad for a Turkish car insurance. A little background on me: I'm a German expat living in Japan. I've never been to Turkey (nothing personal, I'd love to, just never happened). I don't speak Turkish nor do I subscribe to Turkish Youtube channels.

A few days ago I got a few Youtube commercials in Spanish (food-related). I have been to Chile many times, but the last time was just before Covid broke out. So also here no obvious reason why I should be served Youtube ads in Spanish.

I find none of them offensive, just immensely stupid on Youtube's part.

Also, don't get me started on Amazon's search, Amazon's search box is so polluted with Amazon's house brand and other sponsored results, it has become plain useless. Even when I know the exact product I want, it is hard to find at times. Ok, rant over.
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subego
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Nov 24, 2022, 01:17 PM
 
I’ve started to use my purchase history as a quick and dirty filter.
     
Thorzdad
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Nov 24, 2022, 03:10 PM
 
Looks like Sarah Palin lost her bid to be an Alaska Representative. Thank god.
     
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Nov 24, 2022, 06:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I’ve started to use my purchase history as a quick and dirty filter.
Is that another US-only feature? @ Youtube
Seriously, though, can you elaborate on that? How’d Youtube/Google know your purchase history? Amazon has sanitized their invoices and delivery notices since Google scraped them for their own purposes. Ugh.
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subego
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Nov 24, 2022, 07:40 PM
 
I mean I use my purchase history when I’m on Amazon. In other words, instead of using the regular search I go into “my account” and search my orders.

Obviously doesn’t work for things I’ve never bought before.
     
Laminar
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Nov 25, 2022, 08:41 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
A few days ago I got a few Youtube commercials in Spanish (food-related). I have been to Chile many times, but the last time was just before Covid broke out. So also here no obvious reason why I should be served Youtube ads in Spanish.
I've gotten Spanish ads a few times. It's funnier when it's something normal like a T-Mobile commercial just in Spanish.
     
reader50  (op)
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Dec 7, 2022, 06:48 PM
 
Final Election results are in, though final vote counts are ongoing. Most of that will be provisional ballots, which require the most validation steps before counting.

Projections are from fivethrityeight deluxe projections right before the election.

US Senate: 51 D vs 49 R (Dems control by +2)
Projected: 51 R. (2nd most likely projection was 52 R) Difference from projection: D+2

US House: 222 R vs 213 D (Reps control by +9*)
Projected: 227 R. (2nd most likely projection was 230 R) Difference from projection: D+5
*One Dem rep-elect has died since the election, so until a special election is called, the House will be 222 R vs 212 D, or Reps control by +10.

US State Governors: R 26 vs D 24 (Reps dominate by +2)
Projection: 28 R vs 22 D. Difference from projection: D+2

Within the prior six months, House Minority Leader McCarthy is believed to have predicted a 40+ seat R pickup in the House. It looked like a Red Wave year. Until:
SCOTUS struck down a woman's right to abortion.
Trump picked most of the R candidates in swing states.
Trump campaigned for R candidates, mostly the ones he picked.
The J6 Committee released hearings, showing Trump's attack on Congress and the 2020 Election.
Trump got caught stealing secret US documents.

The above was able to overcome the usual midterm Congress losses from a President's party. In particular, the SCOTUS ruling lead to record voting registrations by women and young people. The Trump attacks on democracy led to heavy registrations by young people. And Trump participation repelled independent voters by a large margin.

Even though polls show significant worries about the economy (especially inflation). And general dissatisfaction with Joe Biden. Voters dislike Trump even more, and concerns about freedoms and democracy outweighed the economic worries. What should have been a Red Wave turned into a general gain for Dems.

In my opinion, Republicans need to ditch Trump. He's anchoring down the party. And they need to update a few policies, notably their usual position on abortion rights. If they stick with the same playbook, 2024 could be a bloodbath.
     
andi*pandi
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Dec 7, 2022, 09:46 PM
 
He will cry like a baby if they ditch him.

<popcorn gif>
     
OreoCookie
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Dec 7, 2022, 11:07 PM
 
I don't think the GOP is nowhere near out of the woods: Republicans might dump Trump, because he can no longer win elections. Hardly a stand on principles. Currently, the hottest contender is Gov. DeSantis, who has made a name for himself by gaslighting libtards by targeting minorities, flying out refugees from Texas (≠ Florida last time I checked) and who doesn't seem to have a lot of policy disagreements with Trump.

I wouldn't get out the champagne just yet.
I don't suffer from insanity, I enjoy every minute of it.
     
 
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