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MLB spring training
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besson3c
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:20 PM
 
Anybody enjoying paying attention to the spring training games? Looking forward to the season? Any surprises?

Came across this, I love it!

     
Dork.
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:28 PM
 
I listened to one of the Mets-Cardinals games on my phone trying out the new MLB Android App, but the Mets were not broadcasting that game so I had to listen to the Cardinals radio announcers. Do they always sound drunk?

Right now, the Mets are at .500 and tied for First Place in the NL East. Do they have to play the actual season? I like things just the way they are, and I don't think playing games will make things better....
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:30 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
I listened to one of the Mets-Cardinals games on my phone trying out the new MLB Android App, but the Mets were not broadcasting that game so I had to listen to the Cardinals radio announcers. Do they always sound drunk?

Right now, the Mets are at .500 and tied for First Place in the NL East. Do they have to play the actual season? I like things just the way they are, and I don't think playing games will make things better....

If only it were that easy. The Jays are 19-4!
     
Dork.
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:35 PM
 
No they're not, those games don't count. They're at .500 too, tied with the rest of the National and American league at 0-0.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:43 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
No they're not, those games don't count. They're at .500 too, tied with the rest of the National and American league at 0-0.

Ahh, I see what you mean.

I know that spring stats and records don't count for shit. I think sometimes they can speak a little bit to the strength of the farm system (the Jays have one that many consider within the top 3 in all of baseball), but there are far too many variables to come up with any conclusive statements about anything.

Which NL East teams are you most worried about this year? The Phillies will surely hassle, but what about Washington and Miami? They seem to have both taken steps forward. I'm not sure how I feel about the wisdom of what Miami has done, but they've certainly throw a lot of money around.
     
Dork.
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Mar 25, 2012, 07:55 PM
 
All of them. Florida... err... Miami has improved, along with Washington. The Phils and Braves haven't improved quite as much over the break, and have key injuries to boot, but have enough talent to contend.

The only opponent I'm no longer worried about is Bernie Madoff, since the Mets ownership settled with the trustee suing them over their involvement last week. They got off relatively easy. I think the Mets payroll is only at like $90 million right now. With the Madoff mess behind them, we could see the payroll going back to $120-ish over the next few years if Alderson can find good Moneyball types to invest in.

Fat lot of good it does us this year, though. If they had only settled in November, they probably still would have let Reyes go (Moneyball never pays much for speed), but maybe they would have signed a good No. 2 pitcher and let Pelfrey go have his yips somewhere else.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 25, 2012, 08:27 PM
 
What is the Mets strategy though?

Basically try to lure the right free agents to play for them, and trade away the ones that are there at the wrong time, and trade away any other expendable assets for prospects when things don't work out so they can repeat this cycle? When money is short they do what you said and try to find some diamonds in the rough to hold them out for a little bit until they can rebuild?

This seems to be the strategy of a number of teams, and frankly I just don't see how this works terribly well if you aren't the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Rangers, Angels, or some other team that has had consistent winning records over the last several years. If you aren't one of these teams, it seems like you'd have to overpay to get premium free agents either in terms of annual pay or years (probably more so the latter), and this seems to result in a bit of desperation and being hampered with bad contracts like the Mets and Cubs have had to deal with (e.g. Oliver Perez, Soriano), or has-beens that don't progress the team any closer to contention in the case of the Orioles.

I don't know why more teams aren't doing what Alex Anthopolous is in Toronto. I'm biased, but I really do think I can rationalize what I'm saying, I think his approach is brilliant and would do wonders for a team with some payroll like the Mets (and Jays). The only downside is that fans will have to accept losing teams for a few years, but it sounds like they are going to have to accept this anyway, or they have been forced to even if this wasn't part of the bargain.

What Anthopolous has done is pour all the team's money into scouting and development, and building a farm system consisting of waves of prospects that will mature at different times. Many of these prospects won't pan out, but if a couple or a few each year do, you've added inexpensive and controllable talent to the team for many years. It seems that these days controllable and talented pitching is where it's at, if you look at the Rays and Giants who have had probably the best rotations in each league. The ones that don't pan out can be replaced by the next generation of prospects, and where there is a surplus in particular positions these players can be traded away for minor or major league talent. This is basically exactly what the Rays have done, only with the Rays when their studs are/were ready for free agency (e.g. Carl Crawford, Matt Moore, Evan Longoria, whomever), they didn't/won't have the money to give them the years and dollars they'd get on the free market.

This approach though, coupled with the money, should be extremely powerful and not only setup one or two good years, but a virtual perpetual stream of solid years. The Rays broke out in 2008 and have lost many of their key players, but they have remained contenders because there have been solid replacements to replace the free agents that have moved on, for the most part. The Rays have had good draft picks by allowing their type A and B free agents to sign elsewhere, and in good scouting of high ceiling talent.

What kills me is teams that are getting high draft picks anyway on account of sucking yet still have crap ass farm systems. Take the Orioles for example. They have been a last place team for many years now. Why on Earth have they not put more money and attention into scouting so that they have one of the best farm systems in baseball? They have had every opportunity to do so. Instead, they have thrown money at ridiculous free agent signings like Kevin Gregg, Vlad Guererro, etc.

Even replacing these meh free agents with the elite ones, these are the sort of free agents you can add when you are really close to contention to put you over the top. That's why I don't understand what Miami has done. Have their signings made them a better team? Sure, but do these players put them over the top? This is not a given. Why would you invest all of this money into players like Jose Reyes when this may do nothing more than move them from 3rd or 4th place to 2nd or 3rd place, or maybe sneak in with a wildcard spot if everything works out right?

I realize that there are no guarantees. The Phillies and Red Sox probably should have dominated last year given how they were favored, but I'd bet on the prospects of avoiding utter collapse (which these teams experienced, along with the Braves) before I'd bet on a lot of luck and everything going as planned.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 25, 2012, 08:37 PM
 
I even question the Yankees and Red Sox's approaches. They have worked well and will probably continue to work, but it seems like a key injury to one or more of their key players puts them in a seriously vulnerable position, as the Red Sox were the year before last.

Any team is going to be hurt a great deal by an injury to a key player, but the blow would be greatly softened if they have a replacement player in the minors that can put up a WAR of at least 2 so that this area of strength becomes an area of adequacy rather than an area of outright liability. These teams fortunately don't have ridiculously bad farm systems, and yes they can trade away or throw a bunch of money at these deficiencies, but there are going to be times when you can't pull that rabbit from a hat and you have to put up with a year of an AJ Burnett or John Lackey.

Not only this but as their players get on in years such as A-Rod is, while you can walk away from these contracts and release players you can only do so up to a certain point. I don't think the Yankees can walk away from A-Rod's contract right now, and the possibility exists that A-Rod will be about league average if not this year in the coming years.
     
Dork.
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Mar 25, 2012, 08:58 PM
 
The Mets strategy these past few months was to do anything they could to pay the bills.

I'm convinced the Mets owners ran the team at a loss, but always covered the losses with money from SNY, the TV network that runs Mets games, which definitely runs at a profit and is also part-owned by the Mets owners. But the Madoff trustee claimed that the Mets owners should have known that Madoff was a fraud, but kept funneling people to him, facilitating his fraud. At one point, the trustee was going after the Mets owners for a billion dollars. When you have a billion-dollar lawsuit pending, you can't just move money from one business to another: the judge scrutinizes all your transactions, to make sure you aren't moving money out of reach of the lawsuit.

So, while the lawsuit was pending, the team was likely bleeding cash with no easy way to put cash back in. That's why the Mets recently sold minority shares. At least four of those shares was bought by SNY, which pretty much proves the whole exercise was just a way to put money from SNY into the Mets without getting the judge involved.

As for their strategy moving forward, it's "Moneyball with Money". They're not going to fall over themselves signing everyone they can, but if they perceive a weakness and can spend money to fix it (especially for a short-term deal), they will. And Moneyball is all about developing prospects, because if you have a key prospect turn into a star, you can have him relatively cheaply until free agency kicks in. Look at the Beltran trade last year: they got one of the Giants' top pitching prospects who may start contributing in a few years. Check back with the Mets in 2014 to see how much better their staff has gotten.

(BTW: Currently, the starting pitching is a big weakness. Even Santana is coming off an injury and we don't really know what we're getting there. If Santana has a setback, then the Mets will start a knuckleballer on Opening Day. How screwed up is that?)
( Last edited by Dork.; Mar 25, 2012 at 09:04 PM. )
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 25, 2012, 09:31 PM
 
Originally Posted by Dork. View Post
The Mets strategy these past few months was to do anything they could to pay the bills.

I'm convinced the Mets owners ran the team at a loss, but always covered the losses with money from SNY, the TV network that runs Mets games, which definitely runs at a profit and is also part-owned by the Mets owners. But the Madoff trustee claimed that the Mets owners should have known that Madoff was a fraud, but kept funneling people to him, facilitating his fraud. At one point, the trustee was going after the Mets owners for a billion dollars. When you have a billion-dollar lawsuit pending, you can't just move money from one business to another: the judge scrutinizes all your transactions, to make sure you aren't moving money out of reach of the lawsuit.

So, while the lawsuit was pending, the team was likely bleeding cash with no easy way to put cash back in. That's why the Mets recently sold minority shares. At least four of those shares was bought by SNY, which pretty much proves the whole exercise was just a way to put money from SNY into the Mets without getting the judge involved.

As for their strategy moving forward, it's "Moneyball with Money". They're not going to fall over themselves signing everyone they can, but if they perceive a weakness and can spend money to fix it (especially for a short-term deal), they will. And Moneyball is all about developing prospects, because if you have a key prospect turn into a star, you can have him relatively cheaply until free agency kicks in. Look at the Beltran trade last year: they got one of the Giants' top pitching prospects who may start contributing in a few years. Check back with the Mets in 2014 to see how much better their staff has gotten.

(BTW: Currently, the starting pitching is a big weakness. Even Santana is coming off an injury and we don't really know what we're getting there. If Santana has a setback, then the Mets will start a knuckleballer on Opening Day. How screwed up is that?)

Moneyball with money sounds like a good strategy, I thought you meant Moneyball as a stop-gap. Will the team be committed to this strategy for the long haul?

It looks like the Mets farm system ranks about the middle of the pack within baseball. Will the team be unloading more assets to expedite the restocking of the farm system?
     
rickey939
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Mar 26, 2012, 05:58 PM
 
Poor KC Royals.
     
Stogieman
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Mar 27, 2012, 03:33 AM
 
Speaking of Moneyball, I have a feeling my beloved Oakland A's are going to suck until...

1. They move to San Jose (2015 the earliest)

or

2. MLB blocks the A's from moving to San Jose and Lew Wolff sales the team.

Slick shoes?! Are you crazy?!
     
Dork.
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Mar 27, 2012, 07:06 AM
 
So the Mets are not the only team with inept ownership?
     
ShortcutToMoncton
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Mar 27, 2012, 06:43 PM
 
Jays are getting a lot of hype. Still think they should've finally splurged on a big hitter or pitcher, but they're probably still at least a year away from being one player short of a challenger I suppose. Hard to argue with what Alex Anthopolous has been doing up here, anyway....
Mankind's only chance is to harness the power of stupid.
     
besson3c  (op)
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Mar 27, 2012, 07:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by ShortcutToMoncton View Post
Jays are getting a lot of hype. Still think they should've finally splurged on a big hitter or pitcher, but they're probably still at least a year away from being one player short of a challenger I suppose. Hard to argue with what Alex Anthopolous has been doing up here, anyway....

I think they were open to this idea, but after Pujols, Fielder, and a few others there wasn't a prime candidate offensively speaking, and both the Angels and Cardinals may pay for their decisions with the contracts they handed out. I don't think it makes sense to undo the work AA has done particularly in unloading contracts like the Wells contract with overpaying in years or dollars for one of these players, at least not just yet. You also have to look at this in terms of the WAR you'd get from these players not just in relation to the league average, but what they have internally, and then relate this to the cost of signing these players. Pujols or Fielder would have replaced Lind (they probably wouldn't have signed with the Jays to be their DH), and what kind of player Lind actually is is still up for question. If Lind turns out to be that .900 OPS type player, getting a Fielder or Pujols would just be a marginal improvement, and moving Lind back to DH decreases his net value, and also takes playing time away from Edwin Encarnacion who might also be a .800-.900 OPS player.

As far as pitching goes, there wasn't really a whole lot out there this year that would be an improvement over what they'd have in house. You also have to consider that we don't really know what we have in Drabek or McGowan, and Cecil is a question mark, Alverez to a lesser extent.

I think the mantra this year is more of "let's see what we have". This is the same as in past years, only the big difference is that there is much more that can not go as planned without the team crashing and burning, there is more high ceiling depth. After this year we'll probably have big enough sample sizes with players such as EE, Lind, arguably Rasmus, Johnson, and Escobar to find out what we have with them.

This team could be anything from a sub .500 team to a playoff contender this year.
     
Stogieman
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Apr 13, 2012, 01:26 AM
 
I love stories like this.

USA Today: Royals' Jeff Francoeur delivers pizza to A's fans

Last Tuesday's A's vs Royals game had less than 1,000 people in attendance. That didn't discourage a group of die hard A's fans from celebrating Bacon Tuesday.

Oakland A's: Bacon Tuesday Video
( Last edited by Stogieman; Apr 13, 2012 at 01:34 AM. )

Slick shoes?! Are you crazy?!
     
Stogieman
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Apr 13, 2012, 01:31 AM
 
Now that spring training is over maybe a Besson or a mod can update the title of this thread to MLB 2012 Season.

Slick shoes?! Are you crazy?!
     
Dork.
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Apr 13, 2012, 07:56 AM
 
Originally Posted by Stogieman View Post
I love stories like this.

USA Today: Royals' Jeff Francoeur delivers pizza to A's fans

Last Tuesday's A's vs Royals game had less than 1,000 people in attendance. That didn't discourage a group of die hard A's fans from celebrating Bacon Tuesday.

Oakland A's: Bacon Tuesday Video
Jeff's a great guy. Too bad he can't hit worth a damn.

Since Jason Bay has gotten off to his slow start, Metstradamus has taken to calling him "Baycoeur", which is kind of unfair to Jeff, since I don't think he even got off to this bad a start....
     
   
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