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How much drama do you expect?
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besson3c
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Dec 24, 2016, 09:48 AM
 
Do you think we are going to see regular controversial statements, weird tweets, diplomatic challenges, and other such drama on a regular basis with Trump, or is he just making some noise now and will settle into a more steady and stable Obama-like approach once he gets into office?

I don't mean this as another "rally of Trump disgust" sort of thread, I'm honestly curious as to how effective the provocative approach will be. It certainly invokes conversation, but what I'm unsure of is this will be good on a more global stage. On the other hand, the steady and stable approach often tried my patience
     
subego
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Dec 24, 2016, 10:05 AM
 
He'll stick with Twitter.

It's to his advantage to speak directly to the public rather than let the press, who don't particularly like him, control the narrative.
     
OAW
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Dec 24, 2016, 12:03 PM
 
I expect the drama to continue because Trump is fundamentally undisciplined. He doesn't think past the end of his own nose and just tweets whatever comes to mind. Like how he made some off-the-cuff comment on Twitter the other day and wiped out over a billion dollars in market value for a major defense contractor. That type of thing has a real impact on real people who are invested in the market via their 401K accounts. Or how he's on the verge of sparking another nuclear arms race on Twitter. That has really national security implications. It's not a joke ... and it's not a game. His staff tries to clean up his messes but it's pretty clear that Trump can't be controlled. Even when he needs to be.

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( Last edited by OAW; Dec 24, 2016 at 02:38 PM. )
     
Ham Sandwich
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Dec 24, 2016, 02:06 PM
 
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BadKosh
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Dec 24, 2016, 03:58 PM
 
I think the left will continue to stomp up n down and make even bigger buffoons of themselves.
     
subego
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Dec 24, 2016, 09:49 PM
 
Practically speaking, what's the difference between Trump giving Lockheed surprise Bully Pulpit from a Tweet or a Press Conference?

Not to mention, I'm like Mr. Capitalist guy who supports blowing shit up, and even I'm not going to shed a bunch of tears for frigging Lockheed.
     
OreoCookie
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Dec 24, 2016, 11:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by And.reg View Post
How much drama is hard to say, since Trump and the rest of the GOP need to interface a lot, so Trump can say "I will..." but even the Commander in Chief can be influenced (maybe moderated at times...?) by experienced members (not saying it's great experience, just experience in general) in the GOP who know and understand the significance of his risk-taking propensity and the danger of suffering long-term consequences for bad risks.
How likely do you think it is that Trump can be tempered by better angels? Who do you think will have the pants on in that relationship?
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OreoCookie
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Dec 24, 2016, 11:25 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Practically speaking, what's the difference between Trump giving Lockheed surprise Bully Pulpit from a Tweet or a Press Conference?
I'd say the difference is that a lot of nuance is lost if you are restricted to 140 characters, and it makes a different whether you communicate at 3 am or 10 am. In a press conference, the press will also ask questions at the very least, but also challenge Trump (or whoever speaks on his behalf). It is easy to say “this contract is too expensive, we should cancel it”, but the President doesn't have final say on these matters, that is Congress. So even simple clarifications such as “Have you conferred with Senate and House Majority Leaders?” would put Trump under pressure, because in all likelihood, Trump hasn't done any of it, and it was just a spur of the moment thing.

It is important to note, though, that there are a few areas where Trump will have the final say, e. g. on foreign policy. That makes tweets about, say, the US' relation with China different from tweets about the constitutionality of flag burning (which has already been decided conclusively by the Supreme Court) or weapons programs (where Congress has final say). So IMHO his weird sequence of tweets regarding the submarine drone China captured has more significance than other tweets. The repercussions mishandling relations with foreign can have are severe. Especially the Chinese will not hesitate to hit Trump where it hurts. (For instance has China about 300 Boeing aircraft on order, and these provide a lot of jobs in rust belt states.)
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Not to mention, I'm like Mr. Capitalist guy who supports blowing shit up, and even I'm not going to shed a bunch of tears for frigging Lockheed.
You don't have to feel sorry for Lockheed, but I don't think bullying will be a successful long-term strategy. You negotiate contracts, and if no side is in breach of contract, you stick to them. Like a relationship with a battered spouse, this can't end well.
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OreoCookie
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Dec 24, 2016, 11:32 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
He'll stick with Twitter.

It's to his advantage to speak directly to the public rather than let the press, who don't particularly like him, control the narrative.
I think it is more than that: if he talked to the press, than that would reveal that probably he hasn't thought a lot of the stuff through. Tweets are one-sided conversations whereas in press conferences you need to think things through.
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andi*pandi
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Dec 24, 2016, 11:47 PM
 
^excellent point.

Trump enjoys being incendiary, so it's unlikely to stop.

As a citizen, it's frustrating as hell to have Trump tweet an inflammatory, strange, or vague statement, limited to 140 characters, and then end up having KellyAnn or someone having to explain "his intent was not to start an arms race" or "that's not what he meant". A press conference or interview is more accountable. There are followup questions. Discussion.

Bypassing the 4th estate is robbing our democracy of checks and balances.
     
OreoCookie
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Dec 25, 2016, 10:54 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
As a citizen, it's frustrating as hell to have Trump tweet an inflammatory, strange, or vague statement, limited to 140 characters, and then end up having KellyAnn or someone having to explain "his intent was not to start an arms race" or "that's not what he meant". A press conference or interview is more accountable. There are followup questions. Discussion.

Bypassing the 4th estate is robbing our democracy of checks and balances.
Right, but it is more than that. Trump is not just bypassing the 4th estate, eventually it will become clear whether or not he has actually done any work. Just tweeting about it prevents people from finding out what Trump exactly plans to do about it. People will see whether he is serious about renegotiating government contracts, for instance, i. e. whether he and his administration work with Congress to get these things done. Conway is a political marketing genius, but eventually marketing won't be able to cover a lack of substance. You can't govern 140 characters at a time.
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subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 11:26 AM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
I'd say the difference is that a lot of nuance is lost if you are restricted to 140 characters, and it makes a different whether you communicate at 3 am or 10 am. In a press conference, the press will also ask questions at the very least, but also challenge Trump (or whoever speaks on his behalf). It is easy to say “this contract is too expensive, we should cancel it”, but the President doesn't have final say on these matters, that is Congress. So even simple clarifications such as “Have you conferred with Senate and House Majority Leaders?” would put Trump under pressure, because in all likelihood, Trump hasn't done any of it, and it was just a spur of the moment thing.

It is important to note, though, that there are a few areas where Trump will have the final say, e. g. on foreign policy. That makes tweets about, say, the US' relation with China different from tweets about the constitutionality of flag burning (which has already been decided conclusively by the Supreme Court) or weapons programs (where Congress has final say). So IMHO his weird sequence of tweets regarding the submarine drone China captured has more significance than other tweets. The repercussions mishandling relations with foreign can have are severe. Especially the Chinese will not hesitate to hit Trump where it hurts. (For instance has China about 300 Boeing aircraft on order, and these provide a lot of jobs in rust belt states.)

You don't have to feel sorry for Lockheed, but I don't think bullying will be a successful long-term strategy. You negotiate contracts, and if no side is in breach of contract, you stick to them. Like a relationship with a battered spouse, this can't end well.
I'm all for nuance, but "Lockheed is milking us" doesn't require much, and it's not like Kellyanne hides from the press.

I assume the contract is horrible, but not so horrible it bars the President from offering personal opinions on it, so I'm not sure where the breach of contract allegation is coming from.

With China, I can point to one of the few points Trump has made which contains genuine insight, "if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you... if you owe the bank a billion dollars, you own the bank". If China wants to play hardball, they'll only succeed in taking themselves down.
     
subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 11:28 AM
 
Originally Posted by andi*pandi View Post
Bypassing the 4th estate is robbing our democracy of checks and balances.
Maybe a teensie-weensie bit of hyperbole here? They don't seem particularly bypassed to me.
     
OreoCookie
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Dec 25, 2016, 01:14 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I'm all for nuance, but "Lockheed is milking us" doesn't require much, and it's not like Kellyanne hides from the press.
The tweet is meant for fan wanking, to get his base excited about an announcement about nothing. It's very easy to complain about the horrendous costs of some of the weapons programs. But if these were easy to solve, then people had solved them years ago. Take Trump's suggestion to simply cancel the F35 project and go a “comparable” F18s: Did he actually talk to anyone in the military about whether in their mind a souped up F18 actually can replace an F35? I'm not a military expert, but I have my doubt that a late 1970s era airframe is “comparable” with one that is 30-40 years newer. All of these are naturally questions that journalists would ask in a press briefing, something Trump doesn't have to face if he disseminates information via Twitter. Plus, saying “Yeah, I will re-negotiate this horrible contract, and replace F35s with F18s, screw Lockheed!” sounds better than “I will work with GOP lawmakers in the Arms and Services Committee and the US military to review our contracts, and search for possible alternatives to the F35. We will take into consideration to extend service life of existing aircraft, which might necessitate renewing service contracts that were due to expire on …”

I'll leave to you to pick the bit that fits 140 characters and sounds like you're doing “something”.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
I assume the contract is horrible, but not so horrible it bars the President from offering personal opinions on it, so I'm not sure where the breach of contract allegation is coming from.
You seemed to have misunderstood that bit: as long as no side is in breach of contract, a contract holds. I did not write that Trump had to hold his tongue until one of the two sides is in breach of contract. But I do think the President should not carelessly air his mind on Twitter, because he doesn't speak for himself but for the administration and the country.

Trump lost sight of the fundamental issue to be tackled: it is not to re-negotiate a bad contract, but rather to modernize the fleet of aircraft of the US military. Picking an old fighter without consulting the US military won't achieve that.
Originally Posted by subego View Post
"if you owe the bank a million dollars, the bank owns you... if you owe the bank a billion dollars, you own the bank".
Well, as it happens Trump does owe the Bank of China several hundred million dollars … 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
If China wants to play hardball, they'll only succeed in taking themselves down.
It's not China that wants to play hardball, it is Trump and his administration who are threatening China with tariffs and such. Neither side can actually afford this, but if the US initiates sanctions, then China will retaliate, they will punch back. Moreover, this confrontation is not about winning or losing, it is not a fight to the death, neither side is going for the jugular. But China will try to break a few ribs and give the Trump administration a bloody nose — it'll hurt but won't kill you.

Needless to say, Trump wouldn't just be under pressure from China, but the CEO of a certain fruit company would remember that recently Trump told him to call him whenever he could do something for him.
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subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 01:35 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
The tweet is meant for fan wanking, to get his base excited about an announcement about nothing. It's very easy to complain about the horrendous costs of some of the weapons programs. But if these were easy to solve, then people had solved them years ago. Take Trump's suggestion to simply cancel the F35 project and go a “comparable” F18s: Did he actually talk to anyone in the military about whether in their mind a souped up F18 actually can replace an F35? I'm not a military expert, but I have my doubt that a late 1970s era airframe is “comparable” with one that is 30-40 years newer. All of these are naturally questions that journalists would ask in a press briefing, something Trump doesn't have to face if he disseminates information via Twitter. Plus, saying “Yeah, I will re-negotiate this horrible contract, and replace F35s with F18s, screw Lockheed!” sounds better than “I will work with GOP lawmakers in the Arms and Services Committee and the US military to review our contracts, and search for possible alternatives to the F35. We will take into consideration to extend service life of existing aircraft, which might necessitate renewing service contracts that were due to expire on …”
How does him asking for a quote suddenly mushroom into scrapping the entire JSF program?
     
OreoCookie
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Dec 25, 2016, 01:51 PM
 
Originally Posted by subego View Post
How does him asking for a quote suddenly mushroom into scrapping the entire JSF program?
This isn't like buying a Ford Explorer from your local dealer, you can't just get a quote from Boeing. And you don't ask Boeing via Twitter.

Anyway, so far you haven't yet commented on my answers to your original question:
Originally Posted by subego View Post
Practically speaking, what's the difference between Trump giving Lockheed surprise Bully Pulpit from a Tweet or a Press Conference?
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subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 01:53 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
You seemed to have misunderstood that bit: as long as no side is in breach of contract, a contract holds. I did not write that Trump had to hold his tongue until one of the two sides is in breach of contract. But I do think the President should not carelessly air his mind on Twitter, because he doesn't speak for himself but for the administration and the country.

Trump lost sight of the fundamental issue to be tackled: it is not to re-negotiate a bad contract, but rather to modernize the fleet of aircraft of the US military. Picking an old fighter without consulting the US military won't achieve that.
The irony here is if Lockheed is this scared the project is in jeopardy based on the Twitter ramblings of a madman, maybe the madman request of renegotiating more favorable terms for the client is a small price to make the problem go away.
     
subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 02:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
Anyway, so far you haven't yet commented on my answers to your original question:
Trump has authorized surrogates, who you couldn't get to shut the **** up if you wanted them to. I've seen no indication these questions are off the table.

This is how it generally works. It's not the President who goes on Meet the Press.

And let's call a spade a spade. The actual answer to the hypothetical press questions is "we actually hope not to use the Super Hornet, but are playing mind games with Lockheed". Anything else heard at that press conference would be bullshit.

So, yes... him doing it via Twitter means we get one less dog and pony show.
     
subego
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Dec 25, 2016, 02:34 PM
 
Originally Posted by OreoCookie View Post
This isn't like buying a Ford Explorer from your local dealer, you can't just get a quote from Boeing. And you don't ask Boeing via Twitter.
His tweet was in past tense, so there is evidence it's an announcement rather than the request itself, but for the sake of argument let's say that tweet was the first time Boeing heard about it.

So what?

You don't get to be Boeing's Vice President of Death Mercantilism without knowing how to take a swing at a curveball.
     
   
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