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Your Electoral College Predictions
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Mithras
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Oct 27, 2008, 10:31 PM
 
One week out, it's time to find out who the winners and the losers are.
Which is to say -- let's have an Electoral College contest. Nothing fancy -- closest prediction (in either direction) wins. Ties are broken by popular vote prediction, smallest total error from each candidate's final percentage.

You can edit your predictions until this Friday, Oct 31, 11:59pm est.

CNN's Electoral Map Calculator is a good place to start.

I'll begin with the optimistic but plausible:

Electoral College: Obama 364, McCain 174.
Popular Vote: Obama 53%, McCain 46%.

Good luck!
     
Dork.
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Oct 27, 2008, 10:42 PM
 
The CNN map must be broken -- there's no option to list Cynthia McKinney as winning any states.
     
Ghoser777
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Oct 27, 2008, 10:45 PM
 
318 to 220
52% to 47% (1% vote for Kodos)
     
xi_hyperon
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Oct 27, 2008, 10:58 PM
 
Obama 306, McCain 232
50% to 46%
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 27, 2008, 11:08 PM
 
How do you get 306/232?
Oh, wait, I think I got it:

You have Obama winning Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina.
And McCain winning Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri.
     
ort888
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Oct 27, 2008, 11:15 PM
 
I ran the CNN map through the stupendousman filter and it came up McCain 442 Obama 96.

My sig is 1 pixel too big.
     
xi_hyperon
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Oct 27, 2008, 11:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mithras View Post
How do you get 306/232?
Oh, wait, I think I got it:

You have Obama winning Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina.
And McCain winning Florida, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri.
Correct. I think Obama's got a real chance at Ohio and maybe even Florida, but I'm not as confident about those two states as I am CO, NM, NV, VA and NC.
     
zerostar
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Oct 27, 2008, 11:27 PM
 
I think it will end up 1 of two ways

If his polling stays flat or starts to slip from 10/27
Obama 306
McCain 232

If his polling improves from 10/27 (around +10 nationwide)
Obama 364
McCain 174

*Will edit and pick an outcome on the 31st *
     
kobi
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Oct 28, 2008, 12:10 AM
 
I'm going to mirror what Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com is predicting. He's been dead on with all his polls and state senate races.

Obama 351
McCain 187
The Religious Right is neither.
     
tie
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Oct 28, 2008, 12:37 AM
 
Obama 277 (52%)
McCain 261 (48%)
The 4 o'clock train will be a bus.
It will depart at 20 minutes to 5.
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 28, 2008, 06:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by kobi View Post
I'm going to mirror what Nate Silver @ fivethirtyeight.com is predicting. He's been dead on with all his polls and state senate races.

Obama 351
McCain 187
An interesting choice. As far as I know, that's an average of his 10,000 simulations, rather than the result of the single most likely scenario. So you're trading away the possibility of getting it exactly right, for the likelihood of being roughly correct.

Though this gives me 351, which is an interesting little scenario:
Obama wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida.
McCain wins Ohio, New Hampshire, Indiana.
     
ebuddy
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Oct 28, 2008, 06:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by tie View Post
Obama 277 (52%)
McCain 261 (48%)
This is likely the best prediction yet IMO. I'll complete this exercise after work and come back with a couple of scenarios.
ebuddy
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 28, 2008, 06:55 AM
 
Originally Posted by tie View Post
Obama 277 (52%)
McCain 261 (48%)
And I think this one is interesting, in that it shows just what an uphill climb McCain faces.
Even if he wins Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Missouri, Indiana --
all states where he trails in the polls currently, (well, Indiana's a genuine tossup)
Obama just needs Virginia, Nevada, New Hampshire.

And Obama could still afford to lost either Nevada or New Hampshire.
It also underlines what a momentous shift in the electoral map Obama's seizure of Virginia is. It's a major realignment.
( Last edited by Mithras; Oct 28, 2008 at 07:02 AM. )
     
Dork.
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Oct 28, 2008, 07:33 AM
 
Here's my prediction:

Obama: 269
McCain: 266
McKinney: 3

Obama gets picked by the House to be President, but the Senate turns against Biden and picks Palin for VP (bonus points if Cheney gets to make the tiebreaking vote)

Remember, you heard it here first!
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 28, 2008, 07:41 AM
 
Yes, I hear she's leading in Delaware, but the MSM won't tell us about it because it's so embarrassing to Biden.
     
besson3c
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Oct 28, 2008, 08:08 AM
 
I heard that Obama is leading in Muslimstan and the people there want him to be president.

That's a country, right?
     
zerostar
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Oct 28, 2008, 01:40 PM
 
Originally Posted by ebuddy View Post
This is likely the best prediction yet IMO. I'll complete this exercise after work and come back with a couple of scenarios.
No way, 277 is way too low. Obama is doing excellent early in FL, he maybe able to take this state!, (doing even better in our polling too) if that happens then his #'s should be way up all around and breaking 300 will be easy as pie.

now thats a mandate =D
     
Dork.
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Oct 28, 2008, 02:28 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I heard that Obama is leading in Muslimstan and the people there want him to be president.

That's a country, right?
I think that's north of Jackiechanistan.
     
TheWOAT
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Oct 28, 2008, 04:44 PM
 
A tie at 269

After that, I dont know what happens next, but it will be fun to watch
     
Demonhood
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Oct 28, 2008, 04:56 PM
 
Obama: 353
McCain: 185
     
kobi
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Oct 28, 2008, 05:50 PM
 
Chuck Todd on Meet the Press this past Sunday, stated that Georgia and South Carolina is projecting a 95%-100% African-American turn out in those states.
The Religious Right is neither.
     
Timo
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Oct 28, 2008, 08:14 PM
 
Obama: 375
McCain: 163
     
xi_hyperon
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Oct 28, 2008, 08:55 PM
 
^ I live vicariously through Timo's optimism.
     
Timo
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Oct 28, 2008, 10:06 PM
 
(could be a bumpy ride, xi)
     
ebuddy
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Oct 28, 2008, 10:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
No way, 277 is way too low. Obama is doing excellent early in FL, he maybe able to take this state!, (doing even better in our polling too) if that happens then his #'s should be way up all around and breaking 300 will be easy as pie.

now thats a mandate =D
... but what if you're wrong?
ebuddy
     
Paco500
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Oct 29, 2008, 06:23 AM
 
Originally Posted by ebuddy View Post
... but what if you're wrong?
Than I'm guessing the numbers will be different.
     
ebuddy
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Oct 29, 2008, 06:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by Paco500 View Post
Than I'm guessing the numbers will be different.
True 'dat. Like;

McCain 270
Obama 268
ebuddy
     
Big Mac
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Oct 29, 2008, 06:50 AM
 
McCain 274, Obama 264


"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
ebuddy
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Oct 29, 2008, 06:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
McCain 274, Obama 264

I like it!

It'd be nice if the candidates' smiley faces turned into frowny faces as their numbers dwindled.
ebuddy
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 29, 2008, 07:00 AM
 
Well I guess we can see who's playing this to win the contest, and who's playing to feed a delusion.
I can see an optimist tipping those battleground states where polls show narrow Obama leads. That's the stuff elections are made of.

But Colorado's really a stretch at this point. The Pollster.com composites:
     
ebuddy
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Oct 29, 2008, 07:02 AM
 
Originally Posted by Mithras View Post
Well I guess we can see who's playing this to win the contest, and who's playing to feed a delusion.
Colorado just ain't gonna happen for McCain this time around.
... but what if you're wrong?
ebuddy
     
Mithras  (op)
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Oct 29, 2008, 07:15 AM
 
...then I would be wrong, eh?
We're all guessing until it actually happens. But there is evidence to be considered.
     
Big Mac
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Oct 29, 2008, 07:17 AM
 
All the battlegrounds are within the margin of error, but as I've said all along I want you guys to be confident. You should be so confident that you shouldn't even bother showing up to vote.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
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Oct 29, 2008, 07:27 AM
 
Originally Posted by kobi View Post
Chuck Todd on Meet the Press this past Sunday, stated that Georgia and South Carolina is projecting a 95%-100% African-American turn out in those states.
The way things have been going, maybe even 100-110%. It really wouldn't surprise me!

Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
I think it will end up 1 of two ways
If his polling improves from 10/27 (around +10 nationwide)
I'm not sure how anyone really takes seriously "+10 nationwide".

I know Realclearpolitics hasn't really had him over 7 that often, and in order to get that they've got to include for outliers like the NYT and Pew Polls which normally are about double the average spread.

Most of the respectable polling I've seen (and that still skews the numbers towards democrats) put it at about 4% average. Gallup's traditional poll has it at a statistical tie, Rasmussen has it at +3 right now, IBD has it at +4, Battleground has it at +3. Ipsos at +5, and Zogby has it at +5.

GIven that undecideds traditionally skew towards the white candidate in a race like this, and the polling firms have already assumed huge Democrat turn-out, this isn't a position that helps Obama. If things don't change, I predict a very close race (and again, some very embarrassed pollsters).
( Last edited by stupendousman; Oct 29, 2008 at 07:43 AM. )
     
zerostar
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Oct 29, 2008, 09:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
I'm not sure how anyone really takes seriously "+10 nationwide".
Thats why I said IF and I am going off RCP average, which has had him over +9 a couple times since August. Thats why the EVs are so high in that scenario, its not probable, but if thats what the #'s were that is what my guess would be.

If nothing big changes in the next 9 days I stand by my 306. (and that is giving 2 states to McCain just to be safe.)
     
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Oct 29, 2008, 09:32 AM
 
Let's say the polls do tighten as they have in the past, and McCain picks up 4 or 5 points, which I think is being generous for this "buyer's remorse" trend.

According to the RCP averages Obama still wins CO, NV, OH, VA, IA, NH, NM, PA, and others - comfortable victory.

According to the Pollster trendlines Obama wins CO, NV is on the edge, OH is on the edge, VA, IA, NM, NM, PA - still a comfortable victory.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 29, 2008, 10:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Let's say the polls do tighten as they have in the past, and McCain picks up 4 or 5 points, which I think is being generous for this "buyer's remorse" trend.
If he picks up 4 or 5 points, that will put him ahead of (or tied with) Obama according to Gallup, Rassmusen, Battleground, Zogby, IPSOS and IBD. I don't see how that will translate into an EC win for Obama. If that happens, I predict McCain will take it with just under 280 EC votes.
     
besson3c
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Oct 29, 2008, 10:43 AM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
If he picks up 4 or 5 points, that will put him ahead of (or tied with) Obama according to Gallup, Rassmusen, Battleground, Zogby, IPSOS and IBD. I don't see how that will translate into an EC win for Obama. If that happens, I predict McCain will take it with just under 280 EC votes.
What's not to see? All I did was subtract 4/5 points from the latest state polls. It is possible to win the popular vote and lose the EC, don't you remember your buddy Al Gore?
     
zerostar
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Oct 29, 2008, 04:59 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
If he picks up 4 or 5 points,
That's a BIG IF right now, this is the 4th time he has been around 44%. Each time, he drops back down to ~42 within 4 days. He hasn't been over that since 9/22. When was the last time he picked up 4 or 5 points? 9/4 or 9/5??

If Obamas piece is a hit tonight McCain won't be able to swing it back up in time to even break 210 EVs If it is a flop or creates no buzz then you may just get those few points and be able to eek something out.
     
besson3c
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Oct 29, 2008, 05:01 PM
 
The other thing to remember is how to relate a national lead with a state-wide lead. If Obama, for instance, has a 4 point lead nationally, while not a given it often works out that his gain from 2004 in each state is around that. As much as I dislike the winner-take-all electoral college system, what it comes down to is how many states tip with that gain or loss, whatever that happens to be.
     
olePigeon
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Oct 29, 2008, 05:50 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
I ran the CNN map through the stupendousman filter and it came up McCain 442 Obama 96.
Add 3 to Obama, he gets the A-rab terrorist vote.
( Last edited by olePigeon; Oct 29, 2008 at 06:00 PM. )
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stupendousman
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Oct 29, 2008, 06:22 PM
 
My point is that if the national polls move, normally the state polls will as well and that will hurt Obama's chances. Either can be ahead nationally and not win. For instance, places like Nevada's polls findings are based on assumptions about who will turn out, and so far (at least for early voting) the assumptions aren't panning out:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/33494194.htmlno

If Obama doesn't get miraculous turn-out and/or the Republicans stay home, he's not going to win a lot of the states he's looked to be ahead in since the polls make that assumption.
     
ebuddy
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Oct 29, 2008, 08:21 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
If Obama doesn't get miraculous turn-out and/or the Republicans stay home, he's not going to win a lot of the states he's looked to be ahead in since the polls make that assumption.
They can't hear you stupendousman. They can only hear the sound of hand cymbal crashing monkeys screeching ad homs. If there were 900 possible EC votes, Obama would be set to take 630 of them. Period. There are no ifs, ands, or buts about it. Any statement you make that might steal away even a modicum of their zealous optimism renders you an a-rab hating, right-wing nut.

It's the Progressives™ idea; the new freedom of speech.
ebuddy
     
ort888
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Oct 29, 2008, 08:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by olePigeon View Post
Add 3 to Obama, he gets the A-rab terrorist vote.
No, the 96 electoral votes is just the amount he would get from undercover Al-Queda sleeper cell agents.

My sig is 1 pixel too big.
     
Eug
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Oct 29, 2008, 09:50 PM
 
YoMama: 290-303
McBain: 235-248
     
olePigeon
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Oct 30, 2008, 11:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
McBain: 235-248
Ah! My eyes! The goggles, they do nothing!
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you will understand why I dismiss yours." - Stephen F. Roberts
     
olePigeon
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Oct 30, 2008, 11:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
No, the 96 electoral votes is just the amount he would get from undercover Al-Queda sleeper cell agents.
Absentee ballots from Durkadurkastan.
"…I contend that we are both atheists. I just believe in one fewer god than
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xi_hyperon
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Oct 30, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
Revised, based on lates state polls:

Obama: 311
McCain: 227
     
TheWOAT
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Oct 30, 2008, 12:50 PM
 
Basically, Obama will win all of the Kerry states, plus Iowa...
So far Obama 259, McCain 236.
Leaving MO(11),VA(13), NV(5), CO(9), NM(5)

I dont see how McCain gets LESS than 236. If he gets past 250 and loses, I bet the media will say it was closer than they thought it would be, call it the "Bradley Effect", then scold the public to look into their inner thoughts to weed out the racism...
I dont see how Obama gets less than 259...
I think McCain will get those other southern states, just because its the south and all I have to go on are stereotypes...

McCain 260, Obama 259
leaving NV, NM, CO...

Colorado will be the new "Florida circa 2000"

Obama 273, McCain 265
     
zerostar
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Oct 30, 2008, 01:08 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
My point is that if the national polls move, normally the state polls will as well and that will hurt Obama's chances.
It is moving tho....

This morning's Reuters/Zogby tracker has Obama +7, up from +5 on Wednesday:
Two points in one day (same poll) that has to suck for McCain considering he needed a point a day till the 4th to catch up.

"This is not good news for McCain. The race was tightening for a few days but now it is going back the other way," pollster John Zogby said.

I'm not sure how anyone really takes seriously "+10 nationwide".
Add in ANY bounce from the television spot, undecideds finally having to decide (breaking 3:1.5 here) and that +10 no-one could ever seriously imagine is suddenly not so far-fetched I guess... and Zogby hasn't been an outlier all this year, so thats great news for Obama.

I will admit I don't like or trust Zogby as they were pretty far off overall in 2004 and 2006, but the trend has been up for Obama since Wednesday's supposed "tightening" which was not tightening at all.
( Last edited by zerostar; Oct 30, 2008 at 01:14 PM. )
     
 
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