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Your Electoral College Predictions (Page 2)
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stupendousman
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Oct 30, 2008, 05:11 PM
 
Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
It is moving tho....

This morning's Reuters/Zogby tracker has Obama +7, up from +5 on Wednesday:
Zogby's been all over the place. I made this observation weeks ago. One day it's +3 a day or so later +7. In another day or so it might be +2.

The average of all polls have gone down slightly over the past week. There are other polls which have moved down as much or more than Zogby has moved up (Fox News had a 6 point shift) so Zogby is less than a wash. The "polls" which have more relevance to what might actually happen on election day are these:

Poll gives McCain lead in Fla. early voting | floridatoday.com | FLORIDA TODAY
Survey: shows McCain beating Obama in Israel - International Herald Tribune
http://nfibelection2008.illumen.org/...1d4ea6a9740247

There was also a story that Nevada early voting haven't showed the turn-out predicted by the Democrat favored demographics either.

All the current polls will be meaningless if Obama doesn't get the near miraculous turn-out that the polls are predicting. All the results are linked to weighting that shows an historically unprecedented Democrat advantage, which early signs so far don't seem to be materializing. It could all change come election day, but unless you realize what it is that the polls are actually predicting, you could end up being very disapointed and confused come Nov. 5.
     
Eug
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Oct 30, 2008, 05:13 PM
 
you could end up being very disapointed and confused come Nov. 5.
Seems like the most relevant statement in that post.
     
Doofy
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Oct 30, 2008, 05:15 PM
 
I predict that none of it will have anything at all to do with democracy.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
Eug
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Oct 31, 2008, 09:58 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
YoMama: 290-303
McBain: 235-248
Hmmm... That CNN Electoral Map Calculator seems to be predicting something in between 291 and 375 for YoMama, which makes my 290-303 prediction look rather conservative.
     
kobi
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Nov 2, 2008, 04:35 PM
 
Here's the pundits predictions

I was shocked by George Will's prediction:
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
The Religious Right is neither.
     
Ghoser777
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Nov 2, 2008, 05:02 PM
 
Fred Barnes will be able to laugh at a lot of pundits if McCain wins.
     
Eug
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Nov 2, 2008, 07:13 PM
 
Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans

Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans

George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans

George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171

Chris Matthews
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 56 Democrats 42 Republicans
House Seats: 264 Democrats 171 Republicans

Nate Silver
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 347 McCain 191
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 258 Democrats 177 Republicans

Chris Cillizza
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: 312 McCain 226
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 266 Democrats 169 Republicans

Arianna Huffington
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 318 McCain 220
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans

Fred Barnes
Winner: McCain
Electoral College: Obama 252 McCain 286
Senate Seats: 55 Democrats 43 Republicans
House Seats: 255 Democrats 180 Republicans

Eleanor Clift
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 265 Democrats 170 Republicans

Markos Moulitas
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 390 McCain 148
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 268 Democrats 167 Republicans

Ed Rollins
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 249 Democrats 186 Republicans

Paul Begala
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 325 McCain 213
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans

James Carville
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 330 McCain 208
Senate Seats: 60 Democrats 38 Republicans

Readers of CQ Politics' Trail Mix
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 345 McCain 193
     
zerostar
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Nov 2, 2008, 09:40 PM
 
I stand by my #'s due to 3-day polling in FL, the special had an impact but it seems a lot of people liked the PBS special too. Here's hoping to a smooth election!
( Last edited by zerostar; Nov 3, 2008 at 08:42 AM. )
     
Big Mac
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Nov 3, 2008, 08:33 AM
 
Very interesting battleground movement over the weekend. My friends on the other side of the spectrum, I'm concerned about your sanity if the Wealth Distributor loses tomorrow.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
zerostar
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Nov 3, 2008, 08:45 AM
 
lol, the concern should be all with you my friend. Anyway, I suppose the Dems here are used to losing even if its not very likely.
     
Big Mac
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Nov 3, 2008, 08:48 AM
 
Originally Posted by zerostar View Post
lol, the concern should be all with you my friend. Anyway, I suppose the Dems here are used to losing even if its not very likely.
Oh yeah, I am concerned that 50+% of the American people could possibly be Socialistic. As always, I am happy that you're so confident. Just don't try to steal the election, okay?

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
Doofy
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Nov 3, 2008, 09:22 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Oh yeah, I am concerned that 50+% of the American people could possibly be Socialistic.
As per the definition, 49.99999% of people in any country are of below average intelligence (and therefore susceptible to socialism). Only needs a couple of people who're intelligent but using it to line their own pockets to tip the balances.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
kobi
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Nov 3, 2008, 10:20 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Very interesting battleground movement over the weekend. My friends on the other side of the spectrum, I'm concerned about your sanity if the Wealth Distributor loses tomorrow.
What the movement of more battleground states from McCain to Obama? McCain isn't even going to carry AZ, his home state.

Once Virginia falls tomorrow, that will be the start of the Domino Effect. Remember without Pennsylvania McCain can't win.

Another race to watch is the Mitch McConnell race in Kentucky. If he loses his seat, that will start the Domino Effect for the Senate Races.
The Religious Right is neither.
     
Eug
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Nov 3, 2008, 10:30 AM
 
Originally Posted by Doofy View Post
As per the definition, 49.99999% of people in any country are of below average intelligence
Actually, not necessarily. To nitpick...

Many consider "average intelligence" to be in the 91-110 range, which would mean that approximately 25% of the population is "below average" at 90 or below.

     
besson3c
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Nov 3, 2008, 10:51 AM
 
I'll be so happy when this idiotic socialism blabber comes to an end. I mean, all you have to do is ask whether we were socialist under any previous administration including Republican ones, whether our tax system is inherently socialist, etc. and this argument is complicated at best, but it's unfortunate that the counter is to simply turn up the volume.
     
Doofy
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Nov 3, 2008, 11:13 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Actually, not necessarily. To nitpick...

Many consider "average intelligence" to be in the 91-110 range, which would mean that approximately 25% of the population is "below average" at 90 or below.
...which surprisingly enough is almost the exact same percentage of people in the UK who voted NuLabour at the last election.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
Doofy
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Nov 3, 2008, 11:14 AM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I'll be so happy when this idiotic socialism blabber comes to an end. I mean, all you have to do is ask whether we were socialist under any previous administration including Republican ones, whether our tax system is inherently socialist
Yes and yes. Anything other than a flat tax is socialist.
Which means, strangely, that the former USSR is less socialist than The Land Of The Free™.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
Eug
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Nov 3, 2008, 11:19 AM
 
Anything other than no tax is socialist.

The fact that you support a flat tax in your statement above makes you socialist.
     
Big Mac
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Nov 3, 2008, 11:29 AM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Anything other than no tax is socialist.

The fact that you support a flat tax in your statement above makes you socialist.
That's just plain wrong, Eug, and you do nothing for your cause by spouting non-sense. Funding essential governmental services is not Socialism. Socialism is government control over private capital and usually direct redistribution of that capital to those who didn't earn it and don't deserve it.

You know, guys, calling essential, Constitutional governmental spending Socialism and a defense against BHO's leftist vulnerabilities just reveals that you too recognize those vulnerabilities.
( Last edited by Big Mac; Nov 3, 2008 at 11:45 AM. )

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
kobi
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Nov 3, 2008, 11:35 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Socialism is government control over private capital and usually direct redistribution of that capital to those who didn't earn and don't deserve it.
Correct. Just like what Palin did in Alaska.

Socialist Sarah 2012!!
I'll give you a check if you live in Alaska!! <---- New GOP slogan for 2012
The Religious Right is neither.
     
Eug
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Nov 3, 2008, 12:00 PM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
That's just plain wrong, Eug, and you do nothing for your cause by spouting non-sense.
Yeah, and I'm glad you see the obvious.

Such (il)logic is indeed nonsense.
     
Big Mac
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Nov 3, 2008, 12:02 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Yeah, and I'm glad you see the obvious.
So, you're trying for a blatant strawman? Fail.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
Eug
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Nov 3, 2008, 12:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
So, you're trying for a blatant strawman? Fail.
Strawman would imply hostile misrepresentation. Nah, this is sarcasm.

Fail on not picking that up.
     
Mithras  (op)
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Nov 3, 2008, 04:55 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Originally Posted by Doofy
As per the definition, 49.99999% of people in any country are of below average intelligence
Actually, not necessarily. To nitpick...
If you really want to pick nits, 50% of people in any country are at or below median intelligence.
     
Doofy
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Nov 3, 2008, 05:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mithras View Post
If you really want to pick nits, 50% of people in any country are at or below median intelligence.
If you really want to nit pick, what I meant by "average" was the arithmetic mean.
Been inclined to wander... off the beaten track.
That's where there's thunder... and the wind shouts back.
     
Mithras  (op)
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Nov 3, 2008, 05:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by kobi View Post
McCain isn't even going to carry AZ, his home state.
I seriously doubt that will happen.
     
zerostar
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Nov 3, 2008, 05:23 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mithras View Post
I seriously doubt that will happen.
I think you may be surprised :-D
     
Uncle Skeleton
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Nov 3, 2008, 05:58 PM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Socialism is government control over private capital
So why isn't a flat tax socialism then? Isn't private capital being confiscated regardless of the progressiveness of the tax?
     
Eug
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Nov 4, 2008, 11:36 PM
 
Originally Posted by Eug View Post
Hmmm... That CNN Electoral Map Calculator seems to be predicting something in between 291 and 375 for YoMama, which makes my 290-303 prediction look rather conservative.
And it would seem the pundits may be on to something. After seeing what I see in the reports, I'd now be quite surprised if YoMama won with less than 300.
     
Mithras  (op)
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Nov 5, 2008, 02:58 AM
 
Well, it looks like I might get my 364, though with Obama winning Indiana, which I didn't think would happen, and losing Missouri, likewise. Still too close to call for sure, though.
     
Mithras  (op)
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Nov 6, 2008, 02:11 PM
 
I know I'm tooting my own horn here, but the AP has called North Carolina for Obama.

So by this map:



it's Obama 364, McCain 162, with 12 undecided (11 in Missouri, probably going to McCain, and 1 in Nebraska, razor-thin.)

So probably I'll get it, but there's still a chance that Timo's 375 will come to pass.
I can't quite tell whether zerostar eventually picked his 306 or 364 scenario. If the latter, I'll share the spoils with him
     
besson3c
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Nov 6, 2008, 02:13 PM
 
The Democrats also just picked up another Senate seat in Oregon, with 3 more that are undecided.
     
Eug
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Nov 6, 2008, 03:34 PM
 
Yeah Mithras, it looks like it's gonna be 364, with Missouri going to McCain.

Congrats at the good guess. My 303 was way, way off. Obviously I also thought the popular vote would be closer too. It was a 7% spread (53-46). I was expecting it to be less than 5%.


Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
The Democrats also just picked up another Senate seat in Oregon, with 3 more that are undecided.
I wouldn't be surprised if all three went Republican, although I could see 1 more of the three go Democrat.


Originally Posted by kobi View Post
Here's the pundits predictions

I was shocked by George Will's prediction:
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
It looks like George Will was one of the most accurate in that list of pundits.
     
Timo
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Nov 6, 2008, 04:15 PM
 
Originally Posted by Mithras View Post
So probably I'll get it, but there's still a chance that Timo's 375 will come to pass.
Yes we can!
     
 
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