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Getting tighter. Zogby: McCain in lead
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"ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men . . . ."
I thought Obama had this wrapped up until he started making those comments about people being "selfish" for not liking high taxes, and saying that things were going to start getting "nasty." The tax and spend issue, combined with Joe the plumber, might actually be working. I still think Obama is going to win it, but a McCain victory from behind is looking more and more plausible each hour.
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Clinically Insane
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Ahhh, you must read Drudge.
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Looks like you read Drudge too 
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Sometimes, but I've been wondering how they manage to get these daily tracking results so early.
I guess we'll have to wait and see whether the other polls also show this sort of thing. Sometimes Zogby is the first to predict things accurately, sometimes they are spectacularly wrong. All daily tracking polls have outlier results too, so my tentative opinion is that this is an outlier. I'm not disputing that McCain could be picking up ground, but that's an awful lot for a one day poll when not much has happened in the last few days...
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Last edited by besson3c; Oct 31, 2008 at 11:36 PM.
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At least there are only a few days left. I'm getting so tired of trying to figure out who is going to win. This has been going on forever.
Bush gets the award for having the longest lame-duck phase of any presidency.
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I've said it for about a month now....I wouldn't trust Zogby for any kind of trend.
One day Obama is up 7 points, the next day McCain is up 1.
Maybe people really are going back and forth. Zogby's really the only poll that is showing that sort of rollercoaster up and down though. One day a Obama supporter is quoting them, the next a McCain supporter - both end up being disappointed a day or two later.
As I said before, the only thing I think is a likely certainty, with such huge margins in the polls, is some pollsters are going to be really embarrassed. The only thing that would change that would be a highly suspicious sudden and dramatic shift of the polls that have been outliers on one end and/or the other to gravitate towards whatever the eventual final margin right before the polls. If that happens I'm going to be calling BULLS**T loud and hard.
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I want to know who these "undecided" people are. I know people who won't state their voting preference, but I have yet to encounter anyone who says they have not made up their mind.
Paradoxically, these people who are taking the most time in evaluating the candidates and withholding judgment until they've heard the closing arguments, also seem to be the ones who jump back and forth between candidates whenever one sneezes the wrong way or wears the wrong pair of trousers. Fickle bastards.
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Sorry but this has been debunked. Just Drudge trolling for hits again.
Fivethirtyeight.com has the scoop as to why it's bullsh*t.
Once again Nate Silver is the only pollster/predictor that is running a clean game this cycle. You can't beat the math.
Quote from Fivethirtyeight.com:
Matt Drudge is touting the results of a one-day sample in a Zogby poll, which apparently showed John McCain ahead by 1 point.
There are a couple of significant problems with this.
Firstly, there is a reason that pollsters include multiple days of interviewing in their tracking polls; a one-day sample is extremely volatile, and have very high margins for error.
Secondly, the Zogby polls have been particularly volatile, because he uses nonsensical party ID weightings, which mean that his weighting process involves making numbers doing naughty things that they usually don't like to do.
Thirdly, Zogby polls are generally a lagging rather than a leading indicator. This is because he splits his interviewing period over two days; most of the interviews that were conducted in this sample took place on Thursday night, with a few this afternoon. The reason this is significant is because lots of other pollsters were in the field on Thursday night, and most of them evidently showed good numbers for Obama, as he improved his standing in 6 of the 7 non-Zogby trackers.
Finally, there was no favorable news for McCain to drive these numbers. Polls don't move without a reason (or at least they don't move much).
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The Religious Right is neither.
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Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
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Addicted to MacNN
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Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
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didn't zogby predict kerry the day before the elections?
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Originally Posted by ironknee 
didn't zogby predict kerry the day before the elections?
I think so. Real Clear Politics had it Bush by 1.5%, which was at least in the general vicinity...
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Originally Posted by kobi
Fivethirtyeight.com has the scoop as to why it's bullsh*t.
Fivethirtyeight.com isn't any better than quoting Zogby. Nate SIlver is an unabashed Obama supporter and I'm pretty sure his "weighting" isn't any more accurate than the other insane and unlikely skewing that some of the other outlier polls engage in.
He didn't "scoop" anything. Drudge reported what Zogby showed. He clearly stated it was one day of polling. Yes, pollsters do rolling averages.
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Clinically Insane
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Why do Drudge's Zogby numbers not match what is on the Zogby website?
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C'mon you guys, do a little bit of reading:
Drudge headline: MCCAIN MOVES INTO LEAD 48-47 IN ONE DAY POLLING (caps not mine)
Linked article: Pollster John Zogby: "Is McCain making a move? The three-day average holds steady, but McCain outpolled Obama today, 48% to 47%.
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On another note, I'm going to go ahead and make my own prediction based on how I think it will pan out. After election day, feel free to cite this as an example of lack of insight, or perhaps stunning prescience
The undecideds, who are basically undecided about Obama (this is a referendum on him) will begin to break for McCain over the weekend.
The youth and minority vote will be higher than in the past, but still well below expectations.
Obama will still win by roughly 2-3% of the popular vote.
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Here's my prediction, which I base on absolutely nothing:
Due to the amount of attention this election is getting, the kind of attention it is getting, and the fact that this is the first time that there has been a black candidate with a shot at becoming President…the Bradley effect will be GREATER than it has been in the past.
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Being in debt and celebrating a lower deficit is like being on a diet and celebrating the fact you gained two pounds this week instead of five.
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Originally Posted by smacintush
Here's my prediction.....
the Bradley effect will be GREATER than it has been in the past.
And I am predicting none or even a reverse-bradley effect. One of us will be dead wrong soon :-)
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Originally Posted by Kerrigan
I want to know who these "undecided" people are. I know people who won't state their voting preference, but I have yet to encounter anyone who says they have not made up their mind.
Paradoxically, these people who are taking the most time in evaluating the candidates and withholding judgment until they've heard the closing arguments, also seem to be the ones who jump back and forth between candidates whenever one sneezes the wrong way or wears the wrong pair of trousers. Fickle bastards.
I agree with your assessment of the "undecideds". C'mon already.
Here's what I think is happening though and some here aren't going to like it. They've either decided they're not going to vote at all or they're voting McCain and don't want any stigma that might come with supporting McCain/ Palin. They're not undecided, but have used the "undecided" tag to remain silent altogether.
*edited to include; smacintush kind of beat me to it and I agree that there is a "Bradley" element involved.
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ebuddy
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I think every time a poll comes out that shows Obama in the lead, we should make a new thread about it. The forum will look like this.
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
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New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
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New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
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New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows McCain in the Lead!!!
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
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New Poll Shows Obama in the Lead
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My sig is 1 pixel too big.
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Originally Posted by smacintush
Here's my prediction, which I base on absolutely nothing:
Due to the amount of attention this election is getting, the kind of attention it is getting, and the fact that this is the first time that there has been a black candidate with a shot at becoming President…the Bradley effect will be GREATER than it has been in the past.
The only people who cite the "Bradley Effect" are the far Right Extremist Fringe of the GOP. In the real world it doesn't matter.
I'm sorry that you can't handle having a African-American as President, I really am. I, and the millions that have already voted for Obama don't have a problem with it. I just hope you don't force your hateful words on other people.
But based on your posts it's clear that you do.
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The Religious Right is neither.
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Originally Posted by kobi
The only people who cite the "Bradley Effect" are the far Right Extremist Fringe of the GOP. In the real world it doesn't matter.
I'm sorry that you can't handle having a African-American as President, I really am. I, and the millions that have already voted for Obama don't have a problem with it. I just hope you don't force your hateful words on other people.
But based on your posts it's clear that you do.
Plenty of people on the left have voiced their concerns over the Bradley Effect.
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Originally Posted by kobi
The only people who cite the "Bradley Effect" are the far Right Extremist Fringe of the GOP. In the real world it doesn't matter.
I would hope not, but I don't think that YOU live in the real world. In the real world politicians and the press have created an atmosphere where people are apprehensive about expressing their true opinions about someone if they happen to be black.
I'm sorry that you can't handle having a African-American as President, I really am. I, and the millions that have already voted for Obama don't have a problem with it.
Whoa…what? Now you are implying that I have the problem with his race? My problem with Obama has nothing to do with his race. In fact I am completely neutral on the whole issue of race. I don't care whether we have a black President or not, ever. Race simply doesn't concern me. I know, by the modern, American liberal standard that IS racist right?
I just hope you don't force your hateful words on other people.
But based on your posts it's clear that you do.
What the hell is so "hateful" about what I am saying?
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Being in debt and celebrating a lower deficit is like being on a diet and celebrating the fact you gained two pounds this week instead of five.
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kobi: I have to side with smacintush on this one. I think are projecting a little. There are many reasons to not support Obama other than his race. For one, there is the scientifically proven fact that we will be turned into cat food, but we all know that anyway.
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Originally Posted by besson3c
kobi: I have to side with smacintush on this one. I think are projecting a little. There are many reasons to not support Obama other than his race. For one, there is the scientifically proven fact that we will be turned into cat food, but we all know that anyway.
You know Bessie, I think you may have changed my life.
IRL I use sarcasm so much it's damn near a language. If your posts are any indication of how irritating I am then I think I may have to change my personality.
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Being in debt and celebrating a lower deficit is like being on a diet and celebrating the fact you gained two pounds this week instead of five.
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Clinically Insane
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I was serious about defending you though, I just chose to immediately turn it into something more light hearted. You know that I don't seriously think that you guys think that we'll be turned into cat food, I just find the whole premise funny on account of being besson3c. But seriously, I think that it is a projection to say that you have a problem with his race.
As far as the Bradley Effect, I can see this being a factor in certain states, while others not so much.
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1/3 of a poll involving what 125 people can't be wrong!!
Viva McCain!
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Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
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Originally Posted by hyteckit
As I said, Zogby is all over the place.
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Because Zogby polling is crap. Doesn't matter, it's more or less over, so fuhgetaboutit. Time to wrap up polling quibbles and begin celebrating/bemoaning the outcome.
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You turkeys vote for McCain and you are gonna be 10x more ****ed than you already are.
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Clinically Insane
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Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES
You turkeys vote for McCain and you are gonna be 10x more ****ed than you already are.
Impressive argument you've got there.
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"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
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Clinically Insane
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Originally Posted by analogue SPRINKLES
You turkeys vote for McCain and you are gonna be 10x more ****ed than you already are.
Wow, how shocking, coming out of your mouth 
-t
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Originally Posted by turtle777
Wow, how shocking, coming out of your mouth
-t
Like you think any different so try not to be too shocked.
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Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
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I checked Drudge but didn't see that  thanks for posting it.
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Ah. McCain's f*ck. According to Zogby, Obama now leads McCain by over 11%. This is Obama's biggest lead ever.
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Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
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