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Eriamjh · Oct 1, 2007, 07:35 AM

I think I figured out Apple's plan for the iPhone.

Everyone is "expecting" a new iPhone update here or there and it's not likely going to happen before July 2009 (other than a possible capacity boost to 16GB).

Based on the latest 1.1.1 update and the new features it has added, I think that Apple is going to continue to add features and content to the iPhone instead of bringing out a new model every year or so. Why? Because the first iPhone owners are locked into a 2 year contract with AT&T. That means that they would likely be upset if a new model came out before the two year plan was up.

Not everyone can afford to replace the $400 (or $600) iPhone every year. Instead of new hardware, Apple will release software updates that really add features. Take the latest update as an example:

1.) Video out was not available on the iPhone until the 1.1.1 update. Clearly the hardware was capabable of it, but for some reason it wasn't ready at launch.

2.) There is no proper audio streaming via bluetooth to headphones. There is a bug that allows it to happen in 1.1.1 (and 1.0.2), but the speakers on the iPod also play. Expect this to be fixed in 1.2.0 (or whatever).

The iPod controls are improved in 1.1.1 with functions that should have been there from the start. Now we have them. Early adopters are happy and so are new owners.

The only owners who will get effed on the iPhone are those who buy too late in the cycle. Everyone knows a 3G phone is coming, but not when. It could be 2 more years away. But those who sign up for a 2 year contract in Jan 2009 only to have a new phone come out in July will be upset.

The iPhone has the hardware to support many functions. Maybe some of those great functions will come true? Like the ability to record video or audio? It could happen.

chabig · Oct 1, 2007, 07:50 AM

I might agree with your life-cycle estimate, but for two things:

1. Apple badly wants to make a huge dent in the phone market. That will drive them to update the phone's hardware and software at a frenetic pace.

2. I don't think there is any connection between the phone and AT&Ts 2-year contract. The traditional marriage between the device and the service have been broken. The contract doesn't prevent anyone from upgrading to a newer phone and buying a newer phone doesn't require a new contract. The iPhone upgrade will be like upgrading a Mac--buy a new phone, sell the old one to somebody else.

Chris

ghporter · Oct 1, 2007, 08:30 AM

I think this piecemeal update thing is more due to the fact that Apple rushed the iPhone onto shelves before they'd finished it. Plenty of hardware features are there, but turning them on-and making them work right-has been left to firmware updates. While the idea of linking the iPhone hardware to AT&T's contract duration could explain this as a strategy, the extremely short development life of the iPhone and the fact that they rushed the thing from the beginning, are a simpler and thus more likely explanation. As chabig points out, there's no real contractual limitation on upgrading your hardware (though AT&T will usually only offer significant hardware discounts at renewal time).

CharlesS · Oct 1, 2007, 09:57 AM

Originally Posted by chabig

The traditional marriage between the device and the service have been broken. The contract doesn't prevent anyone from upgrading to a newer phone and buying a newer phone doesn't require a new contract.

But on the other hand, any other phone on AT&T's service can be unlocked, and they will actually do it for you if you've been a customer for at least three months and you tell them you're traveling overseas. The iPhone is, AFAIK, the only one that AT&T won't unlock for you, and if you do it yourself, Apple breaks it in a software update. It's also possible with a lot of other phones to buy an unlocked version directly from the factory without going through the carriers, which of course isn't possible with the iPhone. So I'd say the iPhone is more married to the service than other phones have been.

Eriamjh · Oct 1, 2007, 12:30 PM

Originally Posted by CharlesS

It's also possible with a lot of other phones to buy an unlocked version directly from the factory without going through the carriers, which of course isn't possible with the iPhone.

Of course you can buy it from the manufacturer: Apple! It's just not unlocked.

Originally Posted by CharlesS

So I'd say the iPhone is more married to the service than other phones have been.

I agree.

However, was the iPhone rushed? Maybe not rushed, but premature at launch. As long as the FCC doesn't require retesting, they can update the firmware as much as they want.

Remember how quick Apple is to stop providing updates for discontinued hardware (like iPods) as soon as a new model is out. The iPhone is an amazing piece of hardware and software can make it very capable without introducing a new model. It's almost like Leopard making your Mac like new!

CharlesS · Oct 1, 2007, 01:44 PM

Originally Posted by Eriamjh

Of course you can buy it from the manufacturer: Apple! It's just not unlocked.

I know, that's why I said that with the other manufacturers, you can buy an unlocked version direct from the manufacturer. What's so hard to understand about that?

Motorola, for example, lets you buy phones that are unlocked and unbranded. No carrier-specific crippling or other changes, no AT&T logo on the case, etc. I think that Sony Ericsson and Nokia do this too.

However, was the iPhone rushed? Maybe not rushed, but premature at launch. As long as the FCC doesn't require retesting, they can update the firmware as much as they want.

I don't recall saying anything about the iPhone being rushed, so I'm not sure where you're getting that from. All I said was that the iPhone is much more married to its provider than any other GSM phone that's ever existed, as far as I know. Basically, Apple is trying to influence the GSM market toward Verizon's business model, which is something that I just don't understand why everyone is fine with, since that's pretty much GSM's only advantage over CDMA - the openness of it. Take that away, and why exactly would I want to choose a GSM provider again?

It's almost like Leopard making your Mac like new!

Don't tell me you buy that "Brand new Macintosh for $129" marketing BS.

ghporter · Oct 1, 2007, 05:33 PM

Originally Posted by CharlesS

I don't recall saying anything about the iPhone being rushed, so I'm not sure where you're getting that from.

I'm the one that said I thought the iPhone was rushed. It really looks like it; too many functions that are more than "nice to have" have come out in firmware updates for me to believe they were "ready" when they launched it. Personal opinion and all that, but that's where this came from.

theDreamer · Oct 1, 2007, 05:48 PM

Originally Posted by ghporter

I'm the one that said I thought the iPhone was rushed. It really looks like it; too many functions that are more than "nice to have" have come out in firmware updates for me to believe they were "ready" when they launched it. Personal opinion and all that, but that's where this came from.

I agree the iPhone might have been pushed out without the "full" set of features it should have had, but I also will say in no way has it slowed or hurt my use of the phone.

On the note of the next iPhone, I could see a yearly phone come out with minor upgrades, next one will have 16gb of space with maybe more internal RAM for faster browsing, better phone interaction. Next will be 3G, with the possibility of more space.

analogika · Oct 1, 2007, 05:49 PM

Originally Posted by ghporter

I'm the one that said I thought the iPhone was rushed. It really looks like it; too many functions that are more than "nice to have" have come out in firmware updates for me to believe they were "ready" when they launched it. Personal opinion and all that, but that's where this came from.

I disagree.

I think a "minimal" feature set was defined and then honed as much as possible/necessary before a somewhat-flexible-but-relatively-fixed release date.

At least, when it first came out, that's the impression I got.

Minimal Bluetooth support, maximum polish and smoothest interaction between the various applications and the basic functionality that was there.

It was clear from the start that they would be adding more functionality/fleshing out what was there over time.

SEkker · Oct 1, 2007, 10:54 PM

The iPhone was rushed because it was being released at the same time as Leopard.

I'm really hoping once 10.5 is out, we'll see them open the iPhone up to third party developers.

But that truly be too much to ask for - Apple may want to try to keep that entire market to themselves.

Eriamjh · Oct 3, 2007, 12:10 PM

Originally Posted by CharlesS

Don't tell me you buy that "Brand new Macintosh for $129" marketing BS.

First, I said almost. Second, Mac OS 8.5 was hardly like getting a new Mac (for $99).

I was more referring to the new features of the OS rather than making your Mac "like new". I could certainly use spaces and stacks. What else is there?

The iPhone wasn't necessarily rushed. It just didn't have all of its capability at launch (like video out). It sucks that the iPhone took away from the Leopard release, but the iPhone is one amazing device to use.

butterfly0fdoom · Oct 3, 2007, 12:37 PM

Originally Posted by chabig

2. I don't think there is any connection between the phone and AT&Ts 2-year contract. The traditional marriage between the device and the service have been broken. The contract doesn't prevent anyone from upgrading to a newer phone and buying a newer phone doesn't require a new contract. The iPhone upgrade will be like upgrading a Mac--buy a new phone, sell the old one to somebody else.

No, actually, because the iPhone's price isn't subsidized, you can upgrade to an iPhone at any time during your contract without any penalties, but your contract is renewed at that point. Which, if you plan to stick with future iPhones, doesn't really matter. But if you want to go back to a more "traditional" phone, you need to wait 18 months.