[Eug]

There's that comment of editing video again, something basically none of the detractors has even mentioned.

[Spheric Harlot]

You're arguing from your standpoint. I happen to know that you do video transcoding.

The detractors (some of them) *are* claiming that the iPad is too limited.

Do I have your permission to use video editing as an example of where the iPad is limited, and why its limitations are irrelevant to its status as a) ground-breaking and b) a likely runaway success?

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by Eug 

How hard is it really to comprehend that my computing needs having nothing to do with this? My statements apply to the mainstream. Flash is the epitome of mainstream internet computing. You may not like this, but that's the absolute truth.

YouTube, maybe. Gee, what happened there?

Vimeo, maybe. Well, now...

Flash games? How many dozen free alternatives in the app store do you need?

Fast forward to six months from now. Which web developer is not seeing the writing on the wall?

The guy still coding for IE exclusively?

Originally Posted by Eug 

Today is the most important aspect of this. There are all sorts of people out there saying this thing is great for grandma. Nothing could be further from the truth. As much as some geeks hate Flash, grandma loves it, and unfortunately, depends on it.

That's. just. bull.

[dedalus]

Originally Posted by Eug 

My statements apply to the mainstream. Flash is the epitome of mainstream internet computing. You may not like this, but that's the absolute truth.

If you work for Adobe, perhaps. Otherwise, no.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Eug 

As much as some geeks hate Flash, grandma loves it, and unfortunately, depends on it.

Muahahaha

Seriously, Eug, that's the funniest thing I've read in a while.

-t

[Spheric Harlot]

Has America really progressed to the point where twelve-year-olds now have GRANDCHILDREN?

[Eug]

Yeah, I guess the anti-Flash geeks are willing to conveniently ignore the ubiquitousness of Flash in mainstream content, just because it supports their arguments.

Flash is the basis of multimedia content delivery in 2010. Apple has made some inroads with some content providers like YouTube, but YouTube isn't all of the internet. I find it interestingly that the geeks in this thread are so anti-Flash, yet at the same time try to put forward the argument that Flash doesn't matter for the mainstream. That makes no sense. There would be no need to be so vehemently anti-Flash if it wasn't ubiquitous. We could just ignore it. However, the problem is we cannot ignore Flash in 2010 precisely because it is so ubiquitous.

BTW, I find it interesting that the most anti-Flash types are tech guys and web designers. They may have good reason to hate Flash, but that doesn't make Flash any less ubiquitous than it is for mainstream web content. Next you're going to tell me that Word is not necessary for the corporate world...

P.S. I find the whole NY Times Apple & Flash fiasco rather amusingly telling.

The iPad has Adobe's Flash on Apple's video | 9 to 5 Mac

Like I said, maybe things will be different in a few years, or perhaps even sooner. However, the advice by some for most mainstream users to get an iPad as their main internet appliance like device is probably inappropriate.

[dedalus]

You know what? I’m not even against Flash in itself, I’m opposed to JavaScript. You turn off JavaScript, none of the Flash content is even going to load. The way I look at it, all this blinky-blink animated nonsense is totally 20th C., and should be got rid of ASAP. If you can’t do it with just HTML5 and CSS3, don’t bother doing it, at all.

[Eug]

In many ways I agree, but that's not the state of things currently. It may be eventually, but we're not there yet.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by Eug 

In many ways I agree, but that's not the state of things currently. It may be eventually, but we're not there yet.

Do you WANT to get there ?

Apple's current strategy is the fastest way to get there. Like it or not.

-t

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by Eug 

In many ways I agree, but that's not the state of things currently. It may be eventually, but we're not there yet.

If you'd be in charge at Apple there wouldn't be USB ports and we'd still be using floppy disks. Sometimes the fastest way to create change is by forcing it to happen.

[Eug]

You mean like Firewire?

Originally Posted by turtle777 

Do you WANT to get there ?

Apple's current strategy is the fastest way to get there. Like it or not.

Maybe, but like it or not, I'd rather let someone else be the guinea pig than my n00b friends and relatives.

The friends and relatives can get the iPad 3.0, when it actually makes more sense, when Flash isn't as necessary.

It kind of reminds me back in the day when I got my OS X 10.1 iBook. I didn't actually start recommending Macs to colleagues as their primary computers until much later, when the software availability on Macs was much, much better than it was in 2001.

[kman42]

Originally Posted by Eug 

The friends and relatives can get the iPad 3.0, when it actually makes more sense, when Flash isn't as necessary.

Flash isn't necessary for anything. I might give you Hulu if I'm feeling charitable, but they are likely to see the light sooner rather than later. Otherwise, it's totally useless.

[Spheric Harlot]

"if Flash weren't necessary, we could just ignore it. "

well, I guess you've just explained Apple's strategy, haven't you?

The fact that it hasn't hurt anybody but Adobe is testament to its appropriateness.

[Big Mac]

With Click2Flash I'm more likely to block Flash than allow it now, so it doesn't seem all that necessary to my web experience.

[Eug]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

"if Flash weren't necessary, we could just ignore it. "

well, I guess you've just explained Apple's strategy, haven't you?

Bingo. I explained this a very long time ago. Apple has been trying to make Flash unnecessary for years now, esp. after Adobe killed off Quicktime web delivery. It's slowly making progress (YouTube, etc.) but it's not there yet. Give it a couple of years, and maybe Apple will be successful. No guarantees either way though.

In the meantime, many n00bs would be better off with Flash-capable machines, at least for their primary web appliance type devices.

Originally Posted by kman42 

Flash isn't necessary for anything. I might give you Hulu if I'm feeling charitable, but they are likely to see the light sooner rather than later. Otherwise, it's totally useless.

So your argument is: "Flash isn't necessary. Oh wait, it is actually, for now anyway."

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

With Click2Flash I'm more likely to block Flash than allow it now, so it doesn't seem all that necessary to my web experience.

So you use Flash from time to time then?

[Big Mac]

Rarely, yes, if I really want to see it. I don't find myself clicking to view all that often, and I use it less and less. I also installed Click2Flash on my mother's mini, and she made a special point of mentioning how much she likes not having Flash on by default.

[voodoo]

I agree with Eug, in that the iPad is not a very focused product.. it is essentially a larger iPod touch with a better CPU.

That's not bad - as such - but it is at a risk of falling through many cracks in the market. It's too big to lug around - the iPod touch is far more convenient... it's too small to replace a laptop and yet not so small that it is obviously a good choice to take on the road instead of a laptop.

It is slightly better powered than the iPod touch, with a way better battery - but has all the limitations of the iPod touch, such as the iPhone OS (with all its warts), lack of connectivity, that you can't use the device as a disk etc.

On top of that all, it isn't a phone either. Not that it would be a very practical phone. But while a person who owns an iPod touch must be on the fence with the iPad, a person who owns an iPhone will probably not consider this thing.

Since the iPad requires a real computer to work, a person will have to own a laptop/stationary computer + iPad + cellphone (which may or may not be an iPhone)...

There is nothing elegant about this and the iPad is surely the weakest link. A laptop + iPhone is still the best solution for anyone (oh yes anyone) who uses mobile devices.

The talk here about how this will 'change' computer use or be 'revolutionary' etc. Let me recall the discussion about Spotlight and metadata and the fire-sermons some people were spouting because soon there would be no Finder, no traditional file-system - just one big Spotlight window.

Everything in metadata. And now everything with 'touchscreen'. Meh.

As it happens, Apple will have to build a touchscreen device such as the iPad to see if there is indeed any future for it. Apple had to make the Apple II to reveal the PC market, Apple had to make the Macintosh to reveal the need for a GUI system, Apple had to remove the floppy to reveal that is was really an unnecessary POS and Apple had to make the Apple TV to reveal that it is a loser-device with no market. Apple has made both the Cube and the iPhone.

Apple is capable of incredible flops and incredible successes.

Now Apple is trying the iPad. It is not written whether it will be a success or not, but I see more serious flaws in this one than in the iPods - though it is more promising than the Apple TV.

Whatever this thing is going to be - it isn't going to be revolutionary.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Whatever this thing is going to be - it isn't going to be revolutionary.

I just had a deja-voo.

Years ago, the same was said about the iPod.

We'll see.

-t

[Big Mac]

I don't know, Apple has already conceded that they have the option to cut prices if sales don't meet expectations. I've never heard Apple say that before.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

I just had a deja-voo.

Years ago, the same was said about the iPod.

We'll see.

-t

yeah and as I wrote before: «Let me recall the discussion about Spotlight and metadata and the fire-sermons some people were spouting because soon there would be no Finder, no traditional file-system - just one big Spotlight window.»

-- I remember certain people going all gung-ho because of metadata and simply claiming those who didn't understand how this was going to change *everything* were just simpletons, who didn't understand the future.

Well, the future is here and metadata is about as important as the day we got Spotlight. Still a revolution short of a revolution.

Sure the iPad can well become a success, but I don't see it just yet. It isn't the design or any technical aspects.

It's the lack of a killer-app. Just one thing that makes people 'need' an iPad. Now, that isn't so clear.

[kman42]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

Since the iPad requires a real computer to work

I keep reading this. Why does it require a computer? Sure, it would be faster at organizing your music playlists, but other than that? Almost everything can be done on the device itself. Evidence in the SDK indicates that one can print wirelessly, email documents. I can't really think of anything that can't be done on the device. Maybe I'm not thinking hard enough.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

It's the lack of a killer-app. Just one thing that makes people 'need' an iPad. Now, that isn't so clear.

People who throw around terms like "killer app" - i.e. people like you and me - aren't the target. You interact with your files in ways beyond what dedicated apps like iMovie, iTunes, and iPhoto can (I, for example, don't really do *anything* with my photos beyond what iPhoto can do).

For the average "computer" user, the killer app is the fact that this thing does everything they need it to, and doesn't suck, and (one of the reasons it doesn't suck) isn't any more complex than it needs to be to do those things.

No other product currently on the market can match that. None at all.

[turtle777]

Originally Posted by kman42 

I keep reading this. Why does it require a computer?

A few things that it lacks w/o a computer (with current iPhone OS):

* no backups
* no updates
* no way to get own CDs on it

-t

[dedalus]

What’s a CD? Is it similar to an .mp3 or something? Why would I want one?

[kman42]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

A few things that it lacks w/o a computer (with current iPhone OS):

* no backups
* no updates
* no way to get own CDs on it

-t

no backups or updates are valid

[Wiskedjak]

I'll buy a CD over an .mp3 album 99 times out of 100.

[Spheric Harlot]

^ I think it's been well established that at this point, you are irrelevant to Apple's market strategy. This will change. By then, though, CDs may have become unnecessary to you.

Originally Posted by kman42 

no backups or updates are valid

it remains to be seen whether they apply at all.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

People who throw around terms like "killer app" - i.e. people like you and me - aren't the target.

I realize I'm not 'the target' (though I'm such a nerd I might just get one anyway) - but if people were just after good solid computers that didn't suck -- well then Bill Gates wouldn't be a billionaire.

If anything it's people like you and me who *are* used to good computers, good UI (excepting the Finder of course) and such who are most likely to fall into the trap of thinking that is actually a prerequisite for success, simply because that's prerequisite for success in our world.

So far I have yet to see the thing that makes the iPad a 'must have' -- though that is not so important because someone else will -- but until then, I'll be cautiously optimistic. Cautiously because I know Apple. They make mistakes, from time to time.

[voodoo]

People who think CDs are dead or irrelevant and think tablet computers are kinda cool -- you are a minority of a minority.

Just for the record. Perhaps your sun will shine one day, but maybe a reality check is needed?

[Spheric Harlot]

Nope. You're completely wrong, or at least, will be within the next five years. I've touched maybe five audio CDs this past year, and I'm not even under thirty.

I have a computer for production work and downloading stuff; literally everything else I do would be well handled by an iPad.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

it remains to be seen whether they apply at all.

Actually, *a lot* remains to be seen. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it was Apple's plan to announce it without all the details and then sit back at watch the debates to learn what people want. Perhaps Steve is reading this thread right now, trying to decide if the MBA's external drive should be connectable to the iPad.

[Eug]

I don't really see the point of an external drive for the iPad, esp. in its current incarnation.

[Wiskedjak]

Perhaps, and Apple probably has no intention of making it possible to get music from a CD to an iPad without a full computer.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

Nope. You're completely wrong, or at least, will be within the next five years.

So let's talk in 5 years. Until then, please refrain from bashing people for not having the same view of the near future as you do.

mkay?

[Spheric Harlot]

I'm not bashing you. I'm just telling you that you are utterly overestimating the needs of the majority of consumers. Most people under twenty-five probably see CDs as a childhood memory.

[Phileas]

Originally Posted by voodoo 

People who think CDs are dead or irrelevant and think tablet computers are kinda cool -- you are a minority of a minority.
Just for the record. Perhaps your sun will shine one day, but maybe a reality check is needed?

Spheric is right - the next generation of computer users has zero needs for CDs just like you have zero use for floppy disks.

[turtle777]

This might be true, but if you want to market the iPad to people that are not computer literate ("grandma"), how are they are going to get their existing CD collection on it ?

And, please, don't ask me how they're going to get their MCs and vinyls on it.

-t

[jokell82]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

This might be true, but if you want to market the iPad to people that are not computer literate ("grandma"), how are they are going to get their existing CD collection on it ?

And, please, don't ask me how they're going to get their MCs and vinyls on it.

-t

Same way they do now - leave the music off of these devices and keep playing them on their stereos. I mean if they don't have a computer and are still listening to music on CDs/vinyls, they probably won't want to move everything to an iPad and listen through headphones.

And for those that really do WANT to change the way they listen to music, they'll ask their grandkids to do it for them.

[Spheric Harlot]

Originally Posted by turtle777 

This might be true, but if you want to market the iPad to people that are not computer literate ("grandma"), how are they are going to get their existing CD collection on it ?

And, please, don't ask me how they're going to get their MCs and vinyls on it.

10:1 an app like Final Vinyl is already past the concept stage.

[turtle777]

LOL

Final Vinyl - quite catchy

-t

[Spheric Harlot]

I didn't make that up:
Griffin Technology: Current Software

[turtle777]

Spam Reported.

-t

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by Spheric Harlot 

I'm not bashing you. I'm just telling you...

Precisely, you're just "telling me" how it will be. Whatever gives YOU the ability to tell the future? Honest question, because I'm pretty sure your name isn't Nostradamus.

CDs (or some iteration such as DVDs and BDs) are going to be here as long as they are cheap, effective and disposable. That may be a long time into the future.

At least while people have a decent DVD/BD collection, they'll want a DVD/BD drive. The media has already been purchased, which means there will be a demand for a drive.

I can watch exactly ZERO of my already purchased DVDs on the iPad. Not good.

HOWEVER, this discussion is like debating the color of the sky and the lack of an optical drive isn't all that important BECAUSE this iPad isn't really an independent computer. Which IS another flaw and a much bigger one.

You need a real computer to use the iPad with the media you've already invested in. Not only is it far too expensive and quite stupid to re-purchase everything from the Apple movie store (if it is even AVAILABLE in your country), but it won't fit on the iPad if you have 50+ movies... which many people do have.

No cover, no bonus material, no ability to take the movie and transport it between physical players to enjoy it as you would like.

The iPad doesn't have a niche yet. You people are thinking in 'old' terms. The iPad is quite superfluous there, just like every other tablet computer. It needs a new thing, its killer-app.

I'm cautiously optimistic that such an application will be found, but it damn well won't be replacing an actual computer doing normal multimedia stuff. At best it can work as a crutch while you're away from the real computer.

[OreoCookie]

@voodoo
There's no need to be so aggressive. You also make claims similar to Spheric:

Originally Posted by voodoo 

People who think CDs are dead or irrelevant and think tablet computers are kinda cool -- you are a minority of a minority.

Of course, you're perfectly entitled to that opinion. But you shouldn't throw a fit when Spheric gives his opinion on the matter.

[Phileas]

Right on the money: Mule Design Studio's Blog: The Failure of Empathy

I went back for a second helping of Avatar this Sunday. There’s a scene early on in the movie where one of the scientists walks across the lab carrying the “mobile computer slab of the future.” We’ve seen one of these in almost every sci-fi movie of the last 50 years. It comes free with a jetpack, I suppose. Except this time, one month later, my 12 year old son turns to me and whispers “Look Dad, it’s an iPad.”

As many others have noted, the release of the iPad might be the cannonball into the consumer device pool the iPhone dipped its toes in. It’s also been referred to as a thing that sits between that iPhone and your laptop. I see it as more of a fork in the road. It’s the thing many people will get INSTEAD of a laptop.

The iPad isn’t the future of computing; it’s a replacement for computing.

It’s the payoff to all the work done by multiple industries over the last 20–30 years. It’s the subtraction of 20lbs of textbooks in my son’s backpack, and the device I finally feel comfortable buying my parents.

That’s why I was surprised by the reaction the iPad got the day it launched. Following along on Twitter I was seeing things like ‘underwhelming’, ‘meh’ , ’it’s not open’, ‘it’s just a big iPhone’, etc. And most of this stuff was coming from people who design and build interactive experiences. As designers, and technologists we’re very much aware that the interfaces we build are for people who are “not us,’ but we still haven’t made that leap about the concept of “computing.”

The people don’t want “tablet computers” with Ubuntu and OpenID (worst name ever for a product attempting broad acceptance). They could honestly give a shit whether it’s a closed or open system. And, let’s be really honest, they probably care as much about DRM as they do about baseball players juicing; by which I mean not very much at all. They want things to work most of the time, and be easy to fix when they don’t. And if the process by which it happens is “magic” they are totally cool with that.

They want the thing in the movies.

As an industry, we need to understand that not wanting root access doesn’t make you stupid. It simply means you do not want root access. Failing to comprehend this is not only a failure of empathy, but a failure of service.

[voodoo]

Originally Posted by OreoCookie 

@voodoo
There's no need to be so aggressive. You also make claims similar to Spheric:

Not really, I was actually referring to a fact - that the absolute majority of people use CDs today and that the absolute minority of computer users use tablet PCs.

That's not a claim, unless gravity is a claim (??) I can find no information of tablet PCs being more than 5% of current laptop sales in the world as of today. So it is not a claim, but a fact that people who actually think they are cool enough to buy are a minority.

You realize the subtle difference between that and claiming (!) that in the future thing X will have occurred. That's a claim.

Follow me? Spheric *claims* that in the future things will have developed the way *he* wants to believe they will develop -- furthermore will present that *opinion* as a fact -- or alternatively read a fact as an opinion (like you did).

Of course, you're perfectly entitled to that opinion. But you shouldn't throw a fit when Spheric gives his opinion on the matter.

Yes thank you for allowing me to have the freedom to use facts - much abliged - but throwing a fit? Riiight.

I understand that with the attention span of people being what it is nowadays, writing more than five lines on a forum must be the internet equivalent of 'throwing a fit', but no. It isn't.

It's a way to politely answer a person, covering all the necessary bases and replies warranted. The alternative would be 'no u' or somesuch, which wouldn't be nearly as offensive as a reasoned reply.

Oh boy, I wrote more than five lines again - I guess this must be one of my fits.

Fact remains, *everything* Spheric has claimed is his opinion - everything. He's entitled to his opinion (as you so kindly remarked) -- but there is a difference between opinion and fact. Which blurs in his text - while I make it perfectly clear when I write about my opinion and when I write facts.

(oh if you thought using CAPITALS was me being hissy or fitty, sorry - I just couldn't be bothered to use the tags for bold/underline - I would have assumed that by actually READING (oops I did it again) the text it would be clear that it was done for emphasis, not 'virtual shouting')

[Eug]

It's interesting someone mentioned the sci-fi pad example. This is not exactly a new idea. It's been around in movies and TV for just about forever.



What I don't understand is why some Apple geeks here are so convinced Apple's version MUST be it. Apple's tried a scaled down version of it and failed miserably, with the Newton. Then Apple tried again with the iPod touch and iPhone and was successful.

Now Apple is trying with the iPad, and it seems interesting, but as far as I'm concerned it's not a bankable product... yet. If you think it is, I would suggest you invest in AAPL right now, because if it does revolutionize the industry, AAPL will jump significantly over the next several years, and much faster than the market at large. I'm not so convinced. Like some others here, I'm cautiously optimistic, but I don't think Apple is quite there yet with version 1 of the iPad. It's an interesting product, but it's merely evolutionary, and not one that is guaranteed to be a runaway success.

[Big Mac]

I don't think anyone's calling it a guaranteed success, at least not if you define success in iPod or iPhone terms. It's going to be hard for it to be a flop, though, because Apple has a lot of market power now and Apple is firmly behind it.

[Spheric Harlot]

iTunes has 25% of the entire Music market. It's not the only download service around, and it certainly doesn't account for the masses that have long since replaced buying music with streaming it from last.fm or pandora or whatever.

The people who still use CDs are mostly people who still play them in CD players (and will continue to play their existing libraries there. Everybody else has long since ripped them into iTunes.

Maybe Apple will offer an adapter that will allow you to use the Macbook Air Superdrive with it. More likely, they'll offer drive sharing via wi-fi. Either way, it has no relevance to the impact of the iPad.