[stupendousman]

What does it matter if all the Democrats vote early, with the same number who voted last election, and all the Republicans vote on Nov. 4th the same number who voted last election?

Answer? It doesn't.

Do we know that's not going to happen? No, we don't.

Vote fraud is rampant. What if those votes aren't even valid?

[besson3c]

Charges of voter fraud feel like deja vu from 2004... I guess if your horse is winning voter fraud is conspiracy theory, but if it isn't there is something there...

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Charges of voter fraud feel like deja vu from 2004...

I agree. That's when people were caught giving out cigarettes to homeless people in order to get them to go to vote, right? Or was that in 2000?

Now, it's ACORN and stealing the votes of the mentally challenged:

WALB.com News, Weather and Sports for Albany, Valdosta and Thomasville. Leading the way for South Georgia. | Mentally challenged man says his vote wasn't right

These are things that Democrats are ACTUALLY getting caught doing. If only it were a conspiracy theory!!!

[besson3c]

Obama is black jesus.

[stupendousman]

I thought Jesus was black Jesus.....??!??!

Next thing you're going to tell me that Bill Clinton isn't really black

[hyteckit]

Voter Fraud done by Republicans.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...track=ntothtml

See why we need oversight and regulations? We need it for voter registration and in corporate America.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by hyteckit 

Voter Fraud done by Republicans.

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la...track=ntothtml

See why we need oversight and regulations? We need it for voter registration and in corporate America.

How much did the RNC or McCain pay for those guys to do that? Nothing? It was a some state guys? What state? California? Why would the Republican party be spending their money on California vote fraud when everyone knows that the right place to do it is in the swing states?

Really, McCain's people need to hire someone from the Obama camp to show them how it's done. If McCain cant't do any better than to have some local people making mischief in a state that he'd never win, he doesn't deserve to win the rest of them. This sort of thing makes him look like he doesn't know what he's doing. He needs to find a group like ACORN which can help him in ALL the swing states with massive phony voter drives and efforts to get the homeless and mentally handicapped to switch their votes to Republican. His vote fraud isn't going to work unless he steps it up like Obama did and pay the big bucks for his own national organization to do his business.

If this whole election thing doesn't work out for Obama, I say they hire him to train their vote fraud people like he did ACORN. I think that will help them do a lot better in 2012.

ps. My poll results have Obama down to 3.5 points. RealClearPolitics has it down to 4.9. It's time for another New York Times fantasy poll to come out and skew the results - that's my prediction. Hopefully, they've figured out that there will be an 25 increase in dems over reps this time. That will make a lot of sense! We need to get Obama to train the all our pollsters too!

[besson3c]

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

If you can get me that painted on black velvet, I'M BUYING!!!!

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Obama is black jesus.

[besson3c]

Something tells me that you two are not being sincere in your belief that Obama is Jesus, based on your history of demonstrating that he can do no right. Do you think that Jesus is flawed?

I really do think that Obama is the black Jesus.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Something tells me that you two are not being sincere in your belief that Obama is Jesus, based on your history of demonstrating that he can do no right. Do you think that Jesus is flawed?

I really do think that Obama is the black Jesus.

you are in good company
Farrakhan calls Obama the Messiah 9 min version

[besson3c]

Why are you mocking Jesus Chongo?

[TheMosco]

Just like to note, that the difference is back up to 5% with Obama at 50% and McCain at 45% on the traditional.

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Dude. Why isn't Obama walking on water?

[ort888]

[hyteckit]

Originally Posted by ort888 

What? Barack Obama == Black Jackie Chan?

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by TheMosco 

Just like to note, that the difference is back up to 5% with Obama at 50% and McCain at 45% on the traditional.

That must have been yesterday's. TOday is 51 - 44%

[Sayf-Allah]

Maybe I should start a new thread about this but.....

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008...n-swing-states

[xi_hyperon]

Obama's lead widens, 53%/39% among likely voters:

Pew poll

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by xi_hyperon 

Obama's lead widens, 53%/39% among likely voters:

Pew poll

Uh-oh. Those numbers are at least a day old. Obama has dropped 14 points in 24 hours and now it's back to a statistical tie!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP...ot-trender.pdf

(seriously guys... )

[xi_hyperon]

As predicted, you're working hard this month to answer each and every post in here. Keep up the good work. Ha!

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by xi_hyperon 

As predicted, you're working hard this month to answer each and every post in here. Keep up the good work. Ha!

Just the ones with really stupid replies.

You're welcome.

[besson3c]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Uh-oh. Those numbers are at least a day old. Obama has dropped 14 points in 24 hours and now it's back to a statistical tie!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP...ot-trender.pdf

(seriously guys... )

What is this chart supposed to represent? RCP has on their home page a 6.9% national lead...

Your best argument is that the polls don't matter. Trying to claim that McCain is actually doing well in the polls is just dumb, really.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

What is this chart supposed to represent? RCP has on their home page a 6.9% national lead...

It's the GWU/Battleground poll that was just released. It has the race at 1 point.

Your best argument is that the polls don't matter.

..which is my point exactly. Posting every poll that is good for your candidate of choice is dumb when polls using pretty much the same time periods and the same size sample show up to a 14 gap. Especially when most of the polls are giving unrealistic turn-out figures for the Democrats.

Trying to claim that McCain is actually doing well in the polls is just dumb, really.

In the polls as reported, sure. It would have been dumb to say that Hillary was doing well in that poll I had posted earlier as well. These polls look even more unreliable. Again, you can't have a 14 point gap and someone not purposely trying to alter the numbers or being totally incompetent. It's just not possible.

[besson3c]

You can have badly constructed polls, or well constructed anomalies, but there is also strength in numbers. If the average of all polls has Obama up more than the margin of error for these polls, the likelihood is that this tells us something that, while not guaranteed, is a reasonably good bet.

[kobi]

The new Pew poll out tonight has Obama up by 14 pts.

Likely voters
Obama 52%
McCain 38%

Palin's numbers are down by 10 pts also.

Pew Poll

NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll has Obama up by 10 pts.

Obama 52%
McCain 42%

NBC/WSJ Poll PDF

[xi_hyperon]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Just the ones with really stupid replies.

You're welcome.

Heh. In that case, your internal dialog must get quite animated at times.

[Timothy Leary's brain]

Stick a fork in McCain, he's done.

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

What does it matter if all the Democrats vote early, with the same number who voted last election, and all the Republicans vote on Nov. 4th the same number who voted last election?

Answer? It doesn't.

Do we know that's not going to happen? No, we don't.

Vote fraud is rampant. What if those votes aren't even valid?

I expect many of those voting early to vote again on election day.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I expect many of those voting early to vote again on election day.

....which is one of the reasons they are voting early. It's a lot harder to police that way.

[Big Mac]

Well, I guess it's all over guys. We may as well not vote because BHO is somehow widening his lead. Despite his running mate assuring us that there will absolutely be a major international crisis testing him within six months of his presidency commencing. Despite him showing his Socialist roots and inclination with his "spread the wealth around" comment. Apparently this what the American people want, and if it's what we collectively want then the country deserves to get anally raped. Can someone find a Barack anally raping Uncle Sam pic?

[stumblinmike]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Well, I guess it's all over guys. We may as well not vote because BHO is somehow widening his lead. Despite his running mate assuring us that there will absolutely be a major international crisis testing him within six months of his presidency commencing. Despite him showing his Socialist roots and inclination with his "spread the wealth around" comment. Apparently this what the American people want, and if it's what we collectively want then the country deserves to get anally raped. Can someone find a Barack anally raping Uncle Sam pic?

This isn't the conservative I know and love. Show some backbone! Never say die, Remember the Alamo, and all that happy horsesh*t. I am extremely disappointed with my conservative friends!

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

I expect many of those voting early to vote again on election day.

That absolutely can not happen here in FL, if it can happen in your state I suggest you check into that and get it fixed. We literally SCAN your state issued ID after we verify it is legitimate, the ID check goes into the state database and verifies who you are and your address (which we ask you to verify again) our database checks if you have voted and if you have NOT we get you precinct # and party ID information, find your ballot and you are off to vote.

If you come back 4 days later you can not vote again, there is no way without someone hacking into the database and changing all the data. But again, it leaves a paper trail which is sorted by precinct (some have only 12,000 voters here) and you would find duplicates and open up a whole can of worms.

This whole ACORN voter fraud is such a joke, someone tried to scam ACORN, there is no way Jimmy John or Porky Pig will go and vote without a state ID (that matches the address on the registration) and a record in the state database. People upset over this sound as bad as saying Ohio was stolen by Rove in 2004 and that Gore actually won.... blah

/Proud Martin County District 38 Election Coordinator

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by zerostar 

That absolutely can not happen here in FL, if it can happen in your state I suggest you check into that and get it fixed. We literally SCAN your state issued ID after we verify it is legitimate, the ID check goes into the state database and verifies who you are and your address (which we ask you to verify again) our database checks if you have voted and if you have NOT we get you precinct # and party ID information, find your ballot and you are off to vote.

Wow, that's pretty impressive. We don't have any ID checks in California. People proclaim it disenfranchises the poor.

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Wow, that's pretty impressive. We don't have any ID checks in California. People proclaim it disenfranchises the poor.

Because the poor don't have ID or what would the reason be? wtf..

[Big Mac]

Yeah, that's the left-wing rationale.

[zerostar]

Thats stupid, but I don't know much about CA... so how do those drive-up machines work? that seems pretty slick, do you have to scan your ID? or what...

[Big Mac]

Hmm, I have yet to see drive up voting machines. Link?

[zerostar]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Hmm, I have yet to see drive up voting machines. Link?

Hmm I guess its in LA?

http://www.ndtv.com/convergence/ndtv...IEN20080069702

also

http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-el...1022-56bq.html

[kobi]

Originally Posted by Big Mac 

Apparently this what the American people want, and if it's what we collectively want then the country deserves to get anally raped.

How out of touch are you? Have you watched anything besides Fox news this election? Your reply was laughable at best.

What your seeing in the polling is the people reacting to Bush and the Republicans raping the US and the Constitution for the last eight years.

The only people who believe any of the Socialist, Terrorist, Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers, Anti-America bullsh*t talk are the far, far right fringe of the Republican party. I'd like to think that a majority of the Republican party is more intelligent than that, but then again they are supporting McCain.

If Obama is elected, the US and the world will embrace him and then we can start the healing process from greed and excess that the Bush administration has caused the last eight years.

For that far Right fringe that isn't going to be happy with a Obama win, you can always move to Alaska. Sarah Palin can even invite you to a Alaskan Secessionist party event and you all can be happy together.

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by kobi 

If Obama is elected, the US and the world will embrace him and then we can start the healing process from greed and excess that the Bush administration has caused the last eight years.

If you think that Obama is the answer to healing the United States of its greed and excess problems, then you're looking in the wrong place.

America's greed problem isn't exclusive to politicians and government types. It extends from the richest CEO who gets a $1000,000,000 bailout to the lower/middle income person who lives far beyond his/her means and gets into $50,000 worth of credit card debt.

We're all obsessed with selfish, material things that will please us in the short term, and it isn't just an American problem. Any modern country faces the same thing.

To think that Obama is going to start the "healing process" seems a bit naive.

This is somewhat related...a good read: The Broken American Male: And How to Fix Him by Rabbi Shmuley Boteach.

[stupendousman]

Hey guys, Obama is about to lose. It's back to a tie again!

AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch



Again..if you believe that these guys have ANY IDEA what they are doing in regards to polls, I've got a bridge to sell you. It can't both be a tie and a 14 point lead. Some people are engaging in some really bad math. I wouldn't trust the current polls if my life depended on it. I think there is going to be some really bad cases of "egg faces" in a couple of weeks.

[Wiskedjak]

Originally Posted by stupendousman 

Again..if you believe that these guys have ANY IDEA what they are doing in regards to polls, I've got a bridge to sell you. It can't both be a tie and a 14 point lead. Some people are engaging in some really bad math. I wouldn't trust the current polls if my life depended on it. I think there is going to be some really bad cases of "egg faces" in a couple of weeks.

I agree with you completely. Except, you seem to be quite confident in the accuracy of the polls when they support your opinion.

[besson3c]

stupendousman: I just don't understand why this concept is even debatable... Yes, there are individual polls showing funky data, but when the vast majority of them are showing significant Obama leads, why do you feel compelled to believe that all of these polls are off?

[Big Mac]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

stupendousman: I just don't understand why this concept is even debatable... Yes, there are individual polls showing funky data, but when the vast majority of them are showing significant Obama leads, why do you feel compelled to believe that all of these polls are off?

Because, as that AP article states, a number of other polls show it tied.

[besson3c]

Who has shown consistent ties? Please show us this data... Not just a random poll here and there, I mean something that actually suggests a trend.

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by Wiskedjak 

I agree with you completely. Except, you seem to be quite confident in the accuracy of the polls when they support your opinion.

I generally agree that polls which use consistently proven methods can show trends. If you look in recent threads, even of polls that show it at a tie, I caution against using any of the individual polls at any time as some kind of standard. They are simply too erratic. One day a poll has it at a 2 point race, the next 10 - while another poll has it back at a statistical tie and others never move.

Originally Posted by besson3c 

Who has shown consistent ties? Please show us this data... Not just a random poll here and there, I mean something that actually suggests a trend.

The only trend is up...down...up...down. The only way to get a trend is via aggregate, but that ignores the fact that all the polls seem to be moving up and down.

In the end, it will come down to turn-out. If Democrats don't get an unprecedented 5-8 points above the Republicans as some have predicted, there's going to be some disappointed Obama fans out there come Nov. 4, and that's the scenario the polls are setting up.

[besson3c]

So your logic is basically "data is erratic, so therefore the overall picture must be false?" What if the data *is* accurate? Are you open to the possibility that you will be disappointed?

[stupendousman]

Originally Posted by besson3c 

So your logic is basically "data is erratic, so therefore the overall picture must be false?" What if the data *is* accurate?

I doubt that the "data" is erratic. I think that the interpretation of the data is erratic. I think that the entire way they are currently measuring "likely voters" is flawed and is why things are at the extremes they are.

Are you open to the possibility that you will be disappointed?

I doubt I will. The only thing I'm counting on is that a majority of the polls are going to be wrong unless they change their method of weighting. Regardless of who wins, I'm pretty confident (given the extremes we are seeing) that I'll be satisfied with the results of my prediction.