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You are here: MacNN Forums > Community > MacNN Lounge > Political/War Lounge > Zogby: McCain Slowly Gains on Obama - 47.8%, McCain 45.1%

Zogby: McCain Slowly Gains on Obama - 47.8%, McCain 45.1%
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Big Mac
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Oct 20, 2008, 08:17 AM
 
The latest Zogby polling shows slow gains and an increasingly tight race for the presidency, Obama currently leading according to him by a slim 2.7%. 7.1% say they remain undecided. I think those undecideds will break largely for McCain, based partly on the supposition that many are declaring themselves undecided this time due to the Bradley Effect, but that's just my opinion.

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1597

Once again I'm just providing forewarning to you guys, your left-wing idol is going to lose to a politically weak Republican who barely wants to campaign (or else has terrible strategists), and you're going to be livid over it. Remember, I've been predicting this for a year now at least.

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stupendousman
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Oct 20, 2008, 08:24 AM
 
I wouldn't go looking at daily slides up or down in a single poll. The way the polls have gone lately, tomorrow it could show Obama up 20 points in the very same poll. Though, for the past week or so Obama has been trending downward and McCain upward. This could just be that the pollsters are adjusting their polls to reflect a more realistic portrayal of likely democrat turn-out, so their final polls won't look out of wack when the actual election results can be compared to. That's usually what happens.

If you just look at the latest trends and ignore outliers and partisan polls, it's been about a four point race of late, and many pollsters say that Obama may need to be well over 6 points in the polls to actually break even on the 4th.
     
Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 08:33 AM
 
I highlight Zogby because I think his polling is generally quite good, although he did forecast a Kerry win in 2004. He was very accurate in 2000, IIRC. Also, politically I know he's biased toward the left, especially on the ME, so if anyone were to cook the books in BHO's favor I would assume it would be him. The fact that he shows it as tightly as he does when everyone else has a wider spread tells me there's little perceptible bias in his polling.

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Oct 20, 2008, 08:42 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
I highlight Zogby because I think his polling is generally quite good, although he did forecast a Kerry win in 2004. He was very accurate in 2000, IIRC. Also, politically I know he's biased toward the left, especially on the ME, so if anyone were to cook the books in BHO's favor I would assume it would be him. The fact that he shows it as tightly as he does when everyone else has a wider spread tells me there's little perceptible bias in his polling.
On the other hand, perhaps he's biasing it downwards to influence those supporting Obama not to get complacent.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 20, 2008, 08:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
I highlight Zogby because I think his polling is generally quite good, although he did forecast a Kerry win in 2004. He was very accurate in 2000, IIRC.
He was the only one to get it right in 1996, when just about all the pollsters got it way wrong. The NYT/CBS poll was off by I think 5 or 6 points. Still, even his polls are all over the place this year.

Also, politically I know he's biased toward the left, especially on the ME, so if anyone were to cook the books in BHO's favor I would assume it would be him. The fact that he shows it as tightly as he does when everyone else has a wider spread tells me there's little perceptible bias in his polling.
Maybe. I'm just betting if you just take an accurate count and use a traditional "likely voter" formula, you're going to get around 4 points average. That's not to say that's necessarily accurate. Even traditional likely voter models have exaggerated Democrat turn-out in the past. I'd just say that was what the numbers would show if the pollsters weren't totally exaggerating turn-out numbers. That being said, I always assume that the "margin of error" is in favor of the Democrats and if the vote was taken today (and the Bradley Effect wasn't in effect) it would be a 1 point race. If that's what the Democrats and Nancy Pelosi wants to count on "100%" - GOOD LUCK!
( Last edited by stupendousman; Oct 20, 2008 at 08:52 AM. )
     
Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 09:15 AM
 
I personally believe that on election day the majority of Americans will look at falling oil prices, a recovering stock market, a government that has finally responded reasonably responsibly after failing to handle sub-prime for so long, and a government that has prevented a major sequel to 9/11 despite fervent terrorist dreams, low inflation and still historically low unemployment and then they'll vote for the time tested war-hero John McCain over the glib radical-in-moderate-garb Barack Obama. I also think Barack fatigue will start wearing on people, especially in the swing states.
( Last edited by Big Mac; Oct 20, 2008 at 09:29 AM. )

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Oct 20, 2008, 10:19 AM
 
Polls are crap!
Polls are crap!
Polls are crap!
Polls are crap!
Look a poll I like!
Look at this poll!

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ort888
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Oct 20, 2008, 10:21 AM
 
Also, who cares about nationwide polls. You need to look at state-by-state maps and account for the electoral college.

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Oct 20, 2008, 10:37 AM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Also, who cares about nationwide polls. You need to look at state-by-state maps and account for the electoral college.
Wow, kind of the opposite from the Algore/Bush election, no? Back then, all the Lefties said SCREW THE EC, look at the POPULAR!
"Everything's so clear to me now: I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant. Get it? And he knows it.
That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it. Yeah. Before he let's loose the marmosets on us."
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Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 10:46 AM
 
Originally Posted by RAILhead View Post
Wow, kind of the opposite from the Algore/Bush election, no? Back then, all the Lefties said SCREW THE EC, look at the POPULAR!
To be fair, I think we all know ort was saying the national polls don't really matter due to the electoral college.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
Paco500
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Oct 20, 2008, 10:52 AM
 
Originally Posted by RAILhead View Post
Wow, kind of the opposite from the Algore/Bush election, no? Back then, all the Lefties said SCREW THE EC, look at the POPULAR!
I think most "Lefties" are bright enough to realise that Al Gore has not been in the White House for the last 8 years and have therefore come to the conclusion that screwing the EC doesn't help much.

But I don't think that was the point of the OP. It was a good chance for you to spew some barely relevant invective though, so, good for you.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 20, 2008, 10:59 AM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Also, who cares about nationwide polls. You need to look at state-by-state maps and account for the electoral college.
The thing is that state polls usually show what the nationally polls do about a week or so later. Obama is trending down in the national polls, so chances are you'll see the state polls doing the same next week.

What the state-by-state maps show today probably isn't an accurate reflection of what would happen if the vote as held today.
     
Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:02 AM
 
Just imagine the sheer amount of BMW posts that will be written over President Elect McCain on November 5th. It will be a thing of beauty.

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ort888
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:16 AM
 
Bmw?

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Paco500
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:16 AM
 
Originally Posted by Big Mac View Post
Just imagine the sheer amount of BMW posts that will be written over President Elect McCain on November 5th. It will be a thing of beauty.
Please excuse my ignorance, what is a BMW post?
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:17 AM
 
By the same argument, Gore has won the election in 2000 because he has received more popular votes.

You have to poll each state separately and add the votes in the Electoral College. Otherwise the poll cannot predict who will become the next President.
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Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:21 AM
 
Originally Posted by Paco500 View Post
Please excuse my ignorance, what is a BMW post?
Bitch, Moan and Whine. It's a Larry Elder term of art.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
Dakar V
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:24 AM
 
You're terrible.
     
Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:24 AM
 
Originally Posted by Dakar V View Post
You're terrible.
How so?

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ort888
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Oct 20, 2008, 11:51 AM
 
Ahh, bitch moan and whine...

So you mean kind of like a select group of 4 or 5 crazy right wingers have been doing here for months now? Got it.

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hyteckit
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:02 PM
 
Oh looky. Obama increases his lead. It's now in the double digits according to the Gallup poll.

Obama: 52%
McCain: 42%

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111232/Ga...cant-Lead.aspx
Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
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besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:03 PM
 
Obama's Zogby lead also just doubled:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
     
hyteckit
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Obama's Zogby lead also just doubled:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
Poor McCain. I think it's the Colin Powell effect.
Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
     
Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:05 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Obama's Zogby lead also just doubled:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1598
Touché.

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ort888
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:07 PM
 
So are polls back to being crap?

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Paco500
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:19 PM
 
Bradley Effect!
Overweighting of Democrats!
Acorn!
Ayers!
Nobel Prize!

It means nothing! Obama has to have won the election twice for him to even break even on election day!
     
besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:28 PM
 
The most troubling poll for McCain has no tangible data yet, and that is the percentage of independents and undecideds that support Obama, and voting turnout. In Georgia early voting has been much higher than expected, meaning that it is possible that all of these polls could be tainted if voter turnout exceeds all historically grounded expectations, assuming that the majority of these new voters vote for Obama as the poll data we have suggests they are more likely to do.

This isn't a prediction though, anything could happen.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:42 PM
 
As I said, the polls are all over the place. Gallup though using it's traditional polling still only puts Obama up by 3 points and has for days. Gallup gives Democrats 7 points, despite even during elections where Republicans didn't go out and vote, and the Democrats where on their "A Game", the best they've EVER been able to do it 4 points. When a poll like Gallup goes all see-saw a goes back and forth between 4 and 10 points in days while the other polls remain fairly stabile (or goes in the opposite direction), it's likely due to sample error.

CNN has it at 5
Rassmussen at 4
Hotline at 5
Battleground at 4
Gallup's traditional poll is at 3

But...keep looking at those new formula Gallop polls that show 10 points using Democrat advantages that have no historical precedent for coming close. Maybe you can get the NYT to come out with a new poll where Obama will be 20 points up despite all the other polls showing otherwise.

Again, I'm saying that the polls show about a 4 point race the past several days (RCP says 4.8, but they round all the individual races up), which actually means that Obama is behind and needs to catch up due to many factors.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:46 PM
 
Originally Posted by ort888 View Post
Ahh, bitch moan and whine...

So you mean kind of like a select group of 4 or 5 crazy right wingers have been doing here for months now? Got it.
no. *That's* anti-intellectual debate.
     
besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 12:52 PM
 
Originally Posted by stupendousman View Post
As I said, the polls are all over the place. Gallup though using it's traditional polling still only puts Obama up by 3 points and has for days. Gallup gives Democrats 7 points, despite even during elections where Republicans didn't go out and vote, and the Democrats where on their "A Game", the best they've EVER been able to do it 4 points. When a poll like Gallup goes all see-saw a goes back and forth between 4 and 10 points in days while the other polls remain fairly stabile (or goes in the opposite direction), it's likely due to sample error.

CNN has it at 5
Rassmussen at 4
Hotline at 5
Battleground at 4
Gallup's traditional poll is at 3

But...keep looking at those new formula Gallop polls that show 10 points using Democrat advantages that have no historical precedent for coming close. Maybe you can get the NYT to come out with a new poll where Obama will be 20 points up despite all the other polls showing otherwise.

Again, I'm saying that the polls show about a 4 point race the past several days (RCP says 4.8, but they round all the individual races up), which actually means that Obama is behind and needs to catch up due to many factors.

Dude, you sound like me in 2004 trying to spin these numbers and justify things as best as I could in order to hold out some hope. In 2004 the race was generally within 1 or 2 points at around this time, but I was certain that Kerry would win nonetheless, just as you seem certain that McCain will win.

It is best to prepare to be disappointed, especially since most data shows a pretty clear Obama lead right now. This way, you might be pleasantly surprised if your horse wins, but you won't be expecting it.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:00 PM
 
I think if people are going to circle-jerk over polls, the one to pay attention to is RealClear Politics' National Average poll, which has Obama up 4.8.

But no one should worry. I'm sure Obama will be every bit as effective as Pelosi and Crew, and since he's said we wants to "change the world," we'll all have brighter futures filled with butterflies, bunnies, and tingling thighs -- for 4 years, anyway...
"Everything's so clear to me now: I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant. Get it? And he knows it.
That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it. Yeah. Before he let's loose the marmosets on us."
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besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:19 PM
 
In my brighter future world of butterflies and bunnies people like RAILhead at least attempt to make arguments that aren't based solely on emotional terms.

Reality sucks.
     
RAILhead
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:25 PM
 
Dude, don't make the throw rocks at your nads or something. Like I said, the best "polls" are those that average the "top" polls, and that's what RCP's poll does.
"Everything's so clear to me now: I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant. Get it? And he knows it.
That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it. Yeah. Before he let's loose the marmosets on us."
my bandmy web sitemy guitar effectsmy photosfacebookbrightpoint
     
besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:25 PM
 
Gallup has Obama up by 5 in the much heralded traditional likely voter bracket now:

http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx


Which poll are we supposed to pay attention to now?
     
RAILhead
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:27 PM
 
I just don't get what you aren't getting...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html
"Everything's so clear to me now: I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant. Get it? And he knows it.
That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it. Yeah. Before he let's loose the marmosets on us."
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besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by RAILhead View Post
Dude, don't make the throw rocks at your nads or something. Like I said, the best "polls" are those that average the "top" polls, and that's what RCP's poll does.
I agree, and even better than RCP is Pollster.com and their methodology.

I was commenting on your snide comments about how ineffective Obama will be, and your lack of an argument there.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:27 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Dude, you sound like me in 2004 trying to spin these numbers and justify things as best as I could in order to hold out some hope.
The difference is that there's historical precedent for what I'm saying. Polls have historically worked the way I'm claiming. Not just the last election or even the primaries - FOR THE LAST 30 years. Polls almost NEVER overestimate Republican turn-out. They do just the opposite, almost on a continual basis.

In 2004 the race was generally within 1 or 2 points at around this time, but I was certain that Kerry would win nonetheless, just as you seem certain that McCain will win.
Because you were told time and again that the "turn-out" would be key, ignoring the fact that Republicans actually are historically better at getting voters to the polls than Democrats. The thing we hear each and every election cycle is that because they can show more registered Democrats, that will result in a sure Democrat advantage. It simply didn't exist in 2004. I"m not going to say that will be the case this year, but estimates of Democrats being up 8-16 points has really no basis in reality. It's a guess that isn't supported by any past trend or precedent.

It is best to prepare to be disappointed, especially since most data shows a pretty clear Obama lead right now. This way, you might be pleasantly surprised if your horse wins, but you won't be expecting it.
I agree that anything can happen. I just know what's happened in the past, and what the results where. Based on looking at all the facts, I think it would be a mistake for Democrats to be confident in the polls:

Poll: Obama opens double-digit lead over Clinton - CNN.com

The poll linked to above was from a primary Hillary won by 3 or 4 points, I believe. Right there is a poll that got the final results wrong by 13 or 14 points, based on the same types of "analysis" they are currently using for Obama. Right now the polls are averaging 4 - 5 points. Using the example above, that would mean that maybe Obama is really down 10 points. I'm not saying that's the case, but I'm saying that I really hope Democrats believe the polls. Doing that is what has caused them so much disappointment over the last years, and you'd think they'd learn better.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 01:41 PM
 
I agree that polls that show Obama up by 10 or something are outliers, but I'm not seeing many of those.

As far as the Republican turnout, again, we've had this argument before and you have yet to account for 2006.

It is also important to note that the national polls only give us a rough indication as to which way things will go. It is all up to the individual states, and the quality and frequency of polling in the various states varies. The Wisconsin polling data in the Democratic primaries was whacked too... It was saying that Hillary would either win or that the race would be tight, and it ended up being a very solid Obama victory (11-13 point victory, IIRC).

The politics of a particular state are not a static thing either that are set a certain way for an eternity. Why is Virginia doing so well for Obama when it hasn't gone Democratic in years? The same could be said for Indiana, NC, Colorado, Iowa, etc. although curiously not so much Ohio even though it is surrounded by blue states. How reliable are these polls? We don't really know, but it is clear from the overall trend right now that Obama has picked up several states since 2004. It seems silly to claim that all 9 or so of these pickup states for Obama are due to bogus data. Why is that? Maybe there are some unique issues to those states... Maybe there is a new demographic of people living there (e.g. Northern Virginia). Whatever the case is, it is silly to put too much stock in historical Republican turnout when it is one of many variables.

I think it is pretty hard to look at the broader picture and all of these variables and not expect an Obama victory at this point. This could change, but this appears to be where things stand now.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:04 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
I agree that polls that show Obama up by 10 or something are outliers, but I'm not seeing many of those.

As far as the Republican turnout, again, we've had this argument before and you have yet to account for 2006.
An unpopular President and Congressmen surrounded by scandal? They stayed home.

Why is Virginia doing so well for Obama when it hasn't gone Democratic in years?
Is it really? How many points are they normally giving Obama? You just pointed out how wacked state polls get.

The same could be said for Indiana, NC, Colorado, Iowa, etc. although curiously not so much Ohio even though it is surrounded by blue states. How reliable are these polls? We don't really know, but it is clear from the overall trend right now that Obama has picked up several states since 2004.
What "overall trend"? With weeks to go and Obama trending downward in the national polls, what's going to happen to the states polls?

It seems silly to claim that all 9 or so of these pickup states for Obama are due to bogus data. Why is that? Maybe there are some unique issues to those states... Maybe there is a new demographic of people living there (e.g. Northern Virginia). Whatever the case is, it is silly to put too much stock in historical Republican turnout when it is one of many variables.
Maybe as usual, they are using faulty assumptions about turn-out. But, as I said, the numbers you have now haven't really adjusted for the current national downward trend, as they always seem to do a week or so later.

I think it is pretty hard to look at the broader picture and all of these variables and not expect an Obama victory at this point. This could change, but this appears to be where things stand now.
That's what you said in 2004 about Kerry, and you had every reason to believe it then too:

Marist Poll: National November 2, 2004

That poll was only off by about 4 points I think as well - the current trend of margin between Obama and McCain.
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:06 PM
 
This will help him in polls
"Mark my words," the Democratic vice presidential nominee warned at the second of his two Seattle fundraisers Sunday. "It will not be six months before the world tests Barack Obama like they did John Kennedy. The world is looking. We're about to elect a brilliant 47-year-old senator president of the United States of America. Remember I said it standing here if you don't remember anything else I said. Watch, we're gonna have an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of this guy."

"I can give you at least four or five scenarios from where it might originate," Biden said to Emerald City supporters, mentioning the Middle East and Russia as possibilities. "And he's gonna need help. And the kind of help he's gonna need is, he's gonna need you - not financially to help him - we're gonna need you to use your influence, your influence within the community, to stand with him. Because it's not gonna be apparent initially, it's not gonna be apparent that we're right."
45/47
     
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:07 PM
 
The real comedy lies in the position many "liberals" have regarding the electoral college. Back in 2000 and `04 they hated it, saying it was antiquated and didn't reflect "modern society". What a difference 4 years makes.
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:33 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
The real comedy lies in the position many "liberals" have regarding the electoral college. Back in 2000 and `04 they hated it, saying it was antiquated and didn't reflect "modern society". What a difference 4 years makes.
Haha, true.

But then, didn't we all know that would be the case?
     
Arkham_c
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:42 PM
 
Originally Posted by Shaddim View Post
The real comedy lies in the position many "liberals" have regarding the electoral college. Back in 2000 and `04 they hated it, saying it was antiquated and didn't reflect "modern society". What a difference 4 years makes.
The EC is an antiquated construct, regardless of your party affiliation. It's a national election, conducted primarly electronically. There's no good reason not to institute a nationwide "one person, one vote" policy and let the popular vote decide the outcome.

And no, I did not vote for Al Gore. Bush was partly my fault, both times I voted for him.
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Big Mac  (op)
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Oct 20, 2008, 02:45 PM
 
Originally Posted by Arkham_c View Post
The EC is an antiquated construct, regardless of your party affiliation. It's a national election, conducted primarly electronically. There's no good reason not to institute a nationwide "one person, one vote" policy and let the popular vote decide the outcome.
You completely miss the point of the electoral college. The electoral college guarantees minimum presidential electoral representation to each of the states. Our system is designed to favor the will of the States above the will of the individual. One of the things the electoral college does is compel candidates to campaign across the country rather than focus on the states with the major population centers.

"The natural progress of things is for liberty to yield and government to gain ground." TJ
     
Wiskedjak
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Oct 20, 2008, 03:01 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Which poll are we supposed to pay attention to now?
Clearly, the poll that looks most promising for McCain has the only realistic numbers.
     
zerostar
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Oct 20, 2008, 03:10 PM
 
Well this thread was valid for what 5, 6 hours?
     
hyteckit
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Oct 20, 2008, 03:15 PM
 
Oh don't be silly. We will always have yesterday to cherish the moments that McCain gained on Obama.

Yesterday
all my troubles seemed so far away
Now it looks as though
they`re here to stay
Oh I believe in yesterday

Suddenly
I`m not half the man I used to be
there`s a shadow hanging over me
Oh yesterday came suddenly
Bush Tax Cuts == Job Killer
June 2001: 132,047,000 employed
June 2003: 129,839,000 employed
2.21 million jobs were LOST after 2 years of Bush Tax Cuts.
     
stupendousman
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Oct 20, 2008, 04:29 PM
 
Originally Posted by besson3c View Post
Which poll are we supposed to pay attention to now?
UP in Gallup, down in Rassmussen, CNN, Hotline.

I said it before, and you just need to look up towards the top of this thread to see it - the polls are all over the place. It's a bad idea to look at a single poll and how it does day to day. None of it changes the drop Obama has seen in the polls and how in general he's not really moving the numbers. McCain in general has made traction and has the momentum. I believe they call it "striking distance", and that's just assuming that the polls aren't overestimating Democrats as usual.
     
besson3c
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Oct 20, 2008, 04:42 PM
 
stupendousman: or, you could say that Obama's 8 point lead was a temporary surge, and that is drop down to 5 or 6 is simply the result of the polls tightening and stabilizing to where they were destined to be in the first place?

The bottom line is this: Obama has 264 solid electoral points now - that is 264 points where he has an 8% lead or more. He needs 5 more points to tie, 6 points to win, and he has 7 states within reach that he can do that with. Within those 7 states, he is leading or virtually tied in all of them. The only way for McCain to win is by sweeping those 7 states. Obama just has to win one of them, and he is leading by more than 3 in several of these already.

No offense, but I really wouldn't bet money on McCain at this point.
( Last edited by besson3c; Oct 20, 2008 at 05:05 PM. )
     
RAILhead
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Oct 20, 2008, 04:57 PM
 
Yes, it looks like Oldmama will be our President for 4 years due to the way our system is setup. But, it'll only be 4 years -- and some party has to "lose." That's just how it is, and it sucked for the Dems last time, and it'll suck for the Repubs this time.

I will say, though, I truly do hope the best for the country. Things are difficult for people all over, and no, it's not Bush's fault (totally). There are a myriad of problems, and no one President is the root cause -- and no one President can solve all the issues. A lot of people really do see Obama as a Messiah-like figure, and that's just crazy on all kinds of levels.

My gut tells me he will win, and that in the course of his Presidency, he will turn our country down a road that will keep him from being reelected for a second term.

We shall see...
"Everything's so clear to me now: I'm the keeper of the cheese and you're the lemon merchant. Get it? And he knows it.
That's why he's gonna kill us. So we got to beat it. Yeah. Before he let's loose the marmosets on us."
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