[Stogieman]

Let's take a break from Deflategate and enjoy some bad lip reading.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTRmyXX6ipU

[Chongo]

Kurt Warner retweeted this article. It gets worse for the Pats.
Deflated: the Statistically Impossible Patriots Fumble Record | PJ Lifestyle

Patriots partisans are deflating the deflation controversy by arguing that their impermissible deflation of the footballs wasn’t what allowed them to beat an overmatched Colts team. Perhaps. But a new statistical analysis reveals that if it weren’t for deflation of the footballs, the Patriots might not have even been playing a series of home playoff games as the top seed. Careful analytics reveal that suddenly in 2007, a strange and statistically impossible phenomena began to occur at Patriots games.

Sharp Football Analysis has a statistical analysis that backs up the conclusions of football legends Fran Tarkenton and Jerome Bettis: the Patriots’ success over the last decade is due in some (or large) part to cheating. This is bad news for the NFL and for fans of every team that has been on the losing end of Patriot schemes, particularly the Pittsburgh Steelers, who were denied multiple trips to the Super Bowl by the Patriots in AFC Championship games during the height of the first Patriot videotape cheating scandal.





Sharp Football Analysis analysis looked at the rate of fumbles by the Patriots offense over the last decade. The analysis had a number of shocking conclusions. First, the Patriots fumble only at a rate of once every 187 offensive snaps. As Sharp’s puts it, this is literally off the charts. It is a statistical outlier right from a statistics textbook.

Sharp Football Analysis:


One can CLEARLY SEE the Patriots, visually, are off the chart. There is no other team even close to being near to their rate of 187 offensive plays (passes+rushes+sacks) per fumble. The league average is 105 plays/fumble. Most teams are within 21 plays of that number.

The odds of such a statistical distribution were calculated at one in 16,233. That’s a comma, not a decimal. Sixteen thousand two hundred and thirty three to one.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

That's the reason we've not seen a conclusion or penalty yet for this, they're seeing how far this has gone back. Frankly, I'd rather they hand out the penalty for the AFC title game now, then go back and do their best to investigate for previous violations. One thing is very clear, however, they shouldn't be in the SB, period.

[Snow-i]

Originally Posted by sek929 

Uhh, I think they won the super bowl in 01, 03 and 04 by being a superior football team, just how all the stats they've accumulated since then are due to high levels of preparation, coaching and phenomenal play. If the rule Belichick broke in 07 was not a rule during the SB runs then how do you suppose they cheated? Lemme guess....gut feeling? By the way John Harbaugh was asked if he felt there was any funny business with the balls during the divisional game and he said no, so past sour grapes of the Pats amazing trick plays that were 100% legal I'm not sure what you thought went on....besides the Ravens blowing two 14 point leads.

That's great and all. The pats still cheated in the AFC championship.

Funny I was just thinking how every argument with a Spygater is like talking to an anti-vaxxer. Testimonies and insider info that has been proven to be utter nonsense is still regarded as the truth, then a whole truckload of gut feelings, jumps to conclusions and complete fabrications are piled on top. Not to be outdone you've even trotted out the classic Pats hater "Brady is a whiner" rhetoric. Now I could point out the number of other players that complain after every down, expected a call to go a different way or that the refs missed something...but unfortunately I don't have 10 lifetimes. All quarterbacks benefit from the newer rules of roughing the passer, and all of them complain when they think a hit qualifies but was not called...watch some football and you might notice it.

The pats still cheated in the AFC Championship. That is my only point. One which you seem to have a lot of trouble coming to terms with.

Any source for this info? I've read the replacement balls report from a dozen different sources and all mention the balls were tested by the refs and passed the pressure tests before coming in the game.

The balls were replaced at halftime because the refs discovered the original set to be under inflated between the time they were checked 2 hours prior to game start and the start of the game.

[Snow-i]

Trophy the Pats are playing for.

[starman]

NFL Investigating Whether Patriots Played Game With Properly Inflated Vince Wilfork | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Maybe they should spike him a few times, just sayin'.

[Chongo]

SNL cold open
Patriots Press Conference Cold Open | Video | Saturday Night Live | NBC

[Jawbone54]

Interesting how Belichick more or less threw Brady under the bus in his press conference.

Then...Bill Nye threw Belichick under the bus.

[The Final Dakar]

We can only hope Mythbusters tackles this challenge.

[Jawbone54]

I'd be really pumped for that show.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

I'd be really pumped for that show.

Get out.

[andi*pandi]

bill nye, hmm... what about mit profs? Scientists agree that a football will lose air pressure when moved to a cooler place - Metro - The Boston Globe

Now I want Neil Degrasse Tyson to weigh in.

[The Final Dakar]

It'd be nice to compare/contrast with how much PSI the other team's balls lost in the weather.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

We can only hope Mythbusters tackles this challenge.

They did tackle the Ray Guy helium footballs.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

It'd be nice to compare/contrast with how much PSI the other team's balls lost in the weather.

From what I have heard, zero.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Chongo 

From what I have heard, zero.

Zero isn't believable. There should be some loss due to temperature.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Zero isn't believable. There should be some loss due to temperature.

They were still within the 12.5-13.5 psi requirement, all of them. That short a period of time wasn't enough for temperature change to be a factor, apparently.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

They were still within the 12.5-13.5 psi requirement, all of them.

I didn't ask if they were within the requirement.

You people are frothing mad.

[Chongo]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Zero isn't believable. There should be some loss due to temperature.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

They were still within the 12.5-13.5 psi requirement, all of them. That short a period of time wasn't enough for temperature change to be a factor, apparently.

What he said.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

I didn't ask if they were within the requirement.

You people are frothing mad.

WTF? The other balls were still within spec and hadn't lost a significant amount of air, meaning they hadn't been out in the cold long enough to negatively affect their pressure, what more do you want? Sure, if they'd been left in freezing temps overnight they might have lost a pound or two, but they weren't and didn't.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

WTF? The other balls were still within spec and hadn't lost a significant amount of air, meaning they hadn't been out in the cold long enough to negatively affect their pressure, what more do you want?

All I said is it'd be interesting to know how much the Colt's balls lost in comparison. So I guess what I 'want' is an actual number from official sources instead of conflicting answers with ill-defined descriptions pulled out of what I suspect is your assholes.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

All I said is it'd be interesting to know how much the Colt's balls lost in comparison. So I guess what I 'want' is an actual number from official sources instead of conflicting answers with ill-defined descriptions pulled out of what I suspect is your assholes.

When you get like this (re. demanding/condescending) I don't really care if anyone answers your questions, and I'm sure as hell not going to do it. You want info, go search the news feeds and videos yourself.

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

When you get like this (re. demanding/condescending) I don't really care if anyone answers your questions, and I'm sure as hell not going to do it. You want info, go search the news feeds and videos yourself.

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that I tasked you (or anyone) with answering my tangential musing. Let me ease your burden: I didn't.

[andi*pandi]

rule says that they need to be 12.5. Brady sets his to be exactly 12.5, which they are when inspected. Other QBs apparently like them firmer, go over the limit to 14.

cold weather = -1.5

balls that were overinflated are still over the limit, balls that were exactly the limit now appear under.

Do they do this silliness with soccer and basketballs too?

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

rule says that they need to be 12.5. Brady sets his to be exactly 12.5, which they are when inspected. Other QBs apparently like them firmer, go over the limit to 14.

cold weather = -1.5

balls that were overinflated are still over the limit, balls that were exactly the limit now appear under.

The science doesn't support a huge drop (I hear), but yeah, people seem to be blind that if you like overinflated balls then in a situation where pressure can drop the overinflated ball will become legal.

Originally Posted by andi*pandi 

Do they do this silliness with soccer and basketballs too?

Actually, my mind was kind of blown that each side gets to have their own personal balls and inflated to their liking. But upon reflection I realized that's a good way of removing some home field advantage. (The separated balls part. The non-standard PSI is BS).

I do believe NBA game balls have regulated PSI as well, but everyone has to use the same ball. I believe they keep three or so at the ready each game.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

You seem to be under the mistaken impression that I tasked you (or anyone) with answering my tangential musing. Let me ease your burden: I didn't.

Okay then, "It'd be nice" if you'd sod off and go find the info yourself. Maybe try ESPN vids from the last few days, because Sportscenter is where I saw the head of NFL officials talking about it.

Good luck with that.

[sek929]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

That's the reason we've not seen a conclusion or penalty yet for this, they're seeing how far this has gone back. Frankly, I'd rather they hand out the penalty for the AFC title game now, then go back and do their best to investigate for previous violations. One thing is very clear, however, they shouldn't be in the SB, period.

Based off nothing more than a "leaked" report? You are delusional. You might want to take a deep breath and re-evaluate what evidence you, and the entire media, are basing their frenzy off of.

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

You people are frothing mad.

This will be a crash course in Patriot hater-ism, I see you are already getting up to speed.

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

Okay then, "It'd be nice" if you'd sod off and go find the info yourself. Maybe try ESPN vids from the last few days, because Sportscenter is where I saw the head of NFL officials talking about it.

Good luck with that.

Funny, NBC just reported from their NFL source that the initial report of 11 balls 2 PSI low was BS and only one ball may have tested at a full 2 PSI low. Couple that with D'qwuell Jackson, who supposedly noticed the ball being low right away after his INT, didn't notice a damn thing and only heard about the controversy from the news. ESPN is the least reliable news outlet in the world and you should feel ashamed of how easily you were duped into your frenzy.

All this reminds me of back in January 2008. The Patriots were preparing for their historic game against the Giants when a story broke. Patriots caught videotaping Rams practice before the 2001 SB! Oh my word, CHEATERS!!! MEDIA HYSTERIA!!! BAN BELLICHICK....oh wait, that report turned out to be total horseshit, and the author officially retracted his statements due to a complete lack of any evidence.

Now here's how this thread is going to play out. Until actual news comes out regarding Ballghazi, everyone can kindly take their Pats hate and shove it up their collective asses. If you would like to discuss the game of football and/or the upcoming superbowl then this thread will remain open, otherwise I will ask a mod to close it and somebody can start a Patriots Conspiracy Theory thread if they would like to spew falsehoods and utter nonsense.

[sek929]

Now back to actual football talk.

Key to the game for the Pats: Contain the running ability of both Marshawn Lynch and Russell Wilson to force a passing game, hope the secondary can get the job done.

Key to the game for the Hawks: Pressure Brady from the edges to force him out of the pocket, and run Lynch straight up the gut to wear out the smaller athletic linebackers the Pats employ.

Score: 24-21 Patriots with a late-game FG for the win. I respect the Seahawks on Defense and Wilson is turing out to be one hell of a clutch QB...but this past week has given the Pats all they need to entrench the "us versus the world" mindset, I simply don't see them losing, but it's going to be a magnificent battle.

[starman]

Video shows balls were diverted after being checked. This will be interesting.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by sek929 

Based off nothing more than a "leaked" report? You are delusional. You might want to take a deep breath and re-evaluate what evidence you, and the entire media, are basing their frenzy off of.

If anyone is delusional it's the few Patriot hold-outs who still feel they did nothing wrong in this. You fanatics need to reevaluate your loyalties if you feel that blindly supporting a team is more important than the interest in fair play.

This will be a crash course in Patriot hater-ism, I see you are already getting up to speed.

That's mighty arrogant of you, I'd be angry at any team that pulled this type of thing, and even more so if it were a team that I actually backed. I don't care enough about the Pats to brew up that much disappointment and distaste for them. But go on making them out to be victims and martyrs, that's funny.

Funny, NBC just reported from their NFL source that the initial report of 11 balls 2 PSI low was BS and only one ball may have tested at a full 2 PSI low. Couple that with D'qwuell Jackson, who supposedly noticed the ball being low right away after his INT, didn't notice a damn thing and only heard about the controversy from the news. ESPN is the least reliable news outlet in the world and you should feel ashamed of how easily you were duped into your frenzy.

Right. Their "NFL source" was someone from the Pats organization talking about the team's "simulations" where they claimed they tried deflating the balls and were able to get them to deflate by 1.5psi by handling them... Seriously? Talk about falsehoods and utter nonsense.

All this reminds me of back in January 2008. The Patriots were preparing for their historic game against the Giants when a story broke. Patriots caught videotaping Rams practice before the 2001 SB! Oh my word, CHEATERS!!! MEDIA HYSTERIA!!! BAN BELLICHICK....oh wait, that report turned out to be total horseshit, and the author officially retracted his statements due to a complete lack of any evidence.

Now here's how this thread is going to play out. Until actual news comes out regarding Ballghazi, everyone can kindly take their Pats hate and shove it up their collective asses. If you would like to discuss the game of football and/or the upcoming superbowl then this thread will remain open, otherwise I will ask a mod to close it and somebody can start a Patriots Conspiracy Theory thread if they would like to spew falsehoods and utter nonsense.

Correction, here's how this will play out. We'll do what we want regarding discussion about the Pats because this is part of the NFL 2014-2015 season, whether you like it or not, and if you want to have a meltdown over it and try to have it closed, go right ahead.

[sek929]

Being such a self-righteous asshole all the time must be exhausting.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by sek929 

Being such a self-righteous asshole all the time must be exhausting.

No wonder you seem so tired.

[Snow-i]

Originally Posted by sek929 

Being such a self-righteous asshole all the time must be exhausting.

Talking from experience?

[sek929]

Comebacks more flimsy than the evidence in Ballghazi.

[sek929]

It took football to get people interested in physics | NewsCut | Minnesota Public Radio News

Lab test confirm conditions can easily cause ~1.8 drop in psi.

I know it's not a unproven ESPN source reporting it so you haters can just disregard.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Yeah, go on and ignore that the Pats fumble rates over the last several years have been statistically almost impossible. Yeah, that's flimsy evidence, right there...

[sek929]

Report: Man (Probably) Took Piss With Two Bags Of Footballs In Tow

Took a week for this.

The tape of said individual was surrendered early in the investigation.

[sek929]

2008-2012 Pats main RB was BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who did not fumble once in any regular or post season game. He was a mediocre running back yardage-wise but his ball security was legendary long before his nfl debut.

Fumbles per play ran also benefits the Pats in these years due to their signature no-huddle speed offense and more plays total in general than most teams. Featuring a heavy amount of passing attack and running the ball with BenJarvus.

In other words, more horseshit.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Your horseshit comments are hilarious. Thanks for bringing up Green-Ellis, you're right he was completely fumble-free as a Pat (not a single fumble in 4 years, impressive), and then started dropping the ball with consistency right after he left them and went to the Bengals (5 fumbles in 2 years). I guess you forgot and left that part out, eh?

[The Final Dakar]

Deadspin was a fun read this morning. Tyson dropped some fun science.

For the Patriots to blame a change in temperature for 15% lower-pressures, requires balls to be inflated with 125-degree air.

I can't make head or tails of the bathroom thing.

[The Final Dakar]

So, does Gooddell think that waiting til after the SB is a better way to deal with the issue? Is he right?

[Cap'n Tightpants]

NG Tyson is obviously a Pats hater, he's so full of horseshit!

[The Final Dakar]

Science has a Colts bias.

[Jawbone54]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Deadspin was a fun read this morning.

You got me curious.

That's right, the NFL's investigation centers on somebody who—in 90 seconds—is supposed to have walked into a bathroom, taken out 11 footballs, precisely deflated each of these to Tom Brady's high deflated-ball standards, put 11 balls back in the bag, and strolled out of the bathroom whistling "(Sittin' On) The Dock of the Bay." Occam's razor suggests that the locker room attendant wanted to take a quick piss, but Mike Florio suggests something else was going on here:

[The Final Dakar]

Originally Posted by Jawbone54 

You got me curious.

The comments section is a riot:

INTERESTING THEORY

"They didn't deflate the balls in the bathroom they had another bag of already deflated balls and just switched bags"

Balls are marked with official's identifying symbol (like initials or the like) during inspection. Are you telling me they forged those onto the balls?

Not such an interesting theory.

DAMN FACTS

Once you see how simple the mark is (in the video here: NFL coaches, GMs have mixed responses to Patriots' Deflategate case | The MMQB with Peter King..., it's a single capital L in what looks like a simple silver sharpie), you realize that the theory is VERY INTERESTING.

The mark is very easily replicated. Other deflated balls with a duplicate mark could be swapped out at any point during the game and no one would be the wiser.

Let's not pretend this is some kind of unique, authentic imprint on the ball that's impossible to copy. It's a GODDAMN SINGLE LETTER WITH A SHARPIE.

WE HAVE A REBUTTAL

---

Mechanical engineer here:

It would be very easy to build a tool with off the shelf parts that would only require inserting a needle into each ball for about 2 seconds and have the pressure drop to a precise preset level. No skill required, just stick in the needle wait for a second for the pressure to drop and remove the needle.

---

I think, given the right tool and experience, which this person is by now presumed to have, it seems very possible to deflate a ball by a small amount every 10 seconds or so. At the very least it is more believable to me than taking a 90 second piss, which I don't think I've done on even my drunkest nights.

[sek929]

Originally Posted by Cap'n Tightpants 

Your horseshit comments are hilarious. Thanks for bringing up Green-Ellis, you're right he was completely fumble-free as a Pat (not a single fumble in 4 years, impressive), and then started dropping the ball with consistency right after he left them and went to the Bengals (5 fumbles in 2 years). I guess you forgot and left that part out, eh?

I guess you forgot he played 47 games in college and also didn't fumble once. You must have also neglected to research the Pats other RB after BJGE...Ridley who has fumbled 9 times in 3 years and LeGarrette Blount with 3 fumbles in two years.

It's a conspiracy!

I reiterate, this line of thought is pure horseshit.

[The Final Dakar]

Who the hell is headsmart labs?

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by sek929 

I guess you forgot he played 47 games in college and also didn't fumble once. You must have also neglected to research the Pats other RB after BJGE...Ridley who has fumbled 9 times in 3 years.

It's a conspiracy!

I reiterate, this line of thought is pure horseshit.

Yes, because college is as demanding as the NFL, right? I'll repeat, as has been noted by actual, professional statisticians, the Pats' rate of fumbles since 2007 is statistically so improbable it's nigh impossible, making this even more unbelievable is that they play all of their home games outside. In fact, their wet weather fumble rate over that period of time is better than any other team's dry weather or indoor rate.

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.

Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.

The only horseshit to be found around here is your willful blindness towards scientific analysis, it's like talking with a Southern Baptist about evolution or climate change.

[Cap'n Tightpants]

Originally Posted by The Final Dakar 

Who the hell is headsmart labs?

They're a (four man) lab (the guys are from Boston) that's been around for almost 8 months, of course they can be trusted. I see no reason to question their motives or methods.